Jayson Tatum Is Struggling Because...

[ballup]

How’s this for an hypothesis? Tatum appears to be trying to create more of his own chances this year (as appose to mostly scoring off cuts or transition, or taking one hard dribble against a close out and finishing at the rim). Perhaps this isn’t just a cold streak but a reflection of the fact that it’s harder to finish around the basket when defenses are keyed in you earlier in the possession.

It sounds plausible until you look into the possessions. Start off with the fact that teams aren't zoning in onto him harder this season. Makes no sense to do so when there is Kemba on the team and Hayward was the 2nd playmaker. Tatum was more in transition last season and cutting has never really been something he has relied upon. He went overboard with the ISOs last season, but still made his restricted area shots like he did in his rookie season.

My personal opinion is that he's gone away from using his length like he did in previous season. In the past, finger rolls were about 15% of all his shot types inside the paint. This season, it has dropped to 7%. It's not the only reason for the drop, but one of the smaller ones.

So I went through the nba.com tracking numbers...Very little has changed in terms of splits between number of dribbles taken before a shot, and as you say his isolations are down, but he's being used more as the ball handler in PnR which he isn't very good at yet (0.8 ppp; 41st percentile) so that would support my theory, but not enough to explain the discrepancy.

The main thing that stands out is he's taking more shots where a defender is within 2-4 feet (edit: 6.3 contested FGAs per game last year vs. 9.9 this year). They don't further break that down in terms of where those specific shots are taken on the court, but I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are at the rim.

It's not like Tatum has a bad handle and his PnR numbers in the past haven't been as bad. I don't really like to rely on PnR numbers anyways because that playtype is heavily affected by the pick setter unlike ISOs and postups.

Even if you want to count contested shots, you have to remember Tatum is taking more shots in general.


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[VanWest82]

It sounds plausible until you look into the possessions. Start off with the fact that teams aren't zoning in onto him harder this season. Makes no sense to do so when there is Kemba on the team and Hayward was the 2nd playmaker. Tatum was more in transition last season and cutting has never really been something he has relied upon. He went overboard with the ISOs last season, but still made his restricted area shots like he did in his rookie season.

My personal opinion is that he's gone away from using his length like he did in previous season. In the past, finger rolls were about 15% of all his shot types inside the paint. This season, it has dropped to 7%. It's not the only reason for the drop, but one of the smaller ones.

So I went through the nba.com tracking numbers...Very little has changed in terms of splits between number of dribbles taken before a shot, and as you say his isolations are down, but he's being used more as the ball handler in PnR which he isn't very good at yet (0.8 ppp; 41st percentile) so that would support my theory, but not enough to explain the discrepancy.

The main thing that stands out is he's taking more shots where a defender is within 2-4 feet (edit: 6.3 contested FGAs per game last year vs. 9.9 this year). They don't further break that down in terms of where those specific shots are taken on the court, but I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are at the rim.

It's not like Tatum has a bad handle and his PnR numbers in the past haven't been as bad. I don't really like to rely on PnR numbers anyways because that playtype is heavily affected by the pick setter unlike ISOs and postups.

Even if you want to count contested shots, you have to remember Tatum is taking more shots in general.

He's taking 6.4 shots within five feet of the basket this year vs. 4.3 last year. If we assume those extra two shots are likely contested (as shots near the rim tend to be) then that might help explain the dip in efficiency there.

As for pick quality, Al Horford has long been considered one of the best pick setters in the league with Aron Baynes being one of the few guys I'd put above him. If anything Tatum benefited tremendously from that his first two years. His lack of PnR IQ has been discussed in several places including on Simmons's podcast -- one of the biggest Tatum homers out there -- as an area where he needs to improve. Same with his handle. There was a reason why he was being used so infrequently as a PnR ball handler prior to this year.

[ballup]

So I went through the nba.com tracking numbers...Very little has changed in terms of splits between number of dribbles taken before a shot, and as you say his isolations are down, but he's being used more as the ball handler in PnR which he isn't very good at yet (0.8 ppp; 41st percentile) so that would support my theory, but not enough to explain the discrepancy.

The main thing that stands out is he's taking more shots where a defender is within 2-4 feet (edit: 6.3 contested FGAs per game last year vs. 9.9 this year). They don't further break that down in terms of where those specific shots are taken on the court, but I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are at the rim.

It's not like Tatum has a bad handle and his PnR numbers in the past haven't been as bad. I don't really like to rely on PnR numbers anyways because that playtype is heavily affected by the pick setter unlike ISOs and postups.

Even if you want to count contested shots, you have to remember Tatum is taking more shots in general.

He's taking 6.4 shots within five feet of the basket this year vs. 4.3 last year. If we assume those extra two shots are likely contested (as shots near the rim tend to be) then that might help explain the dip in efficiency there.

As for pick quality, Al Horford has long been considered one of the best pick setters in the league with Aron Baynes being one of the few guys I'd put above him. If anything Tatum benefited tremendously from that his first two years. His lack of PnR IQ has been discussed in several places including on Simmons's podcast -- one of the biggest Tatum homers out there -- as an area where he needs to improve. Same with his handle. There was a reason why he was being used so infrequently as a PnR ball handler prior to this year.

Again, Tatum is taking more shots in general so shot attempts in every area is going to jump up. It's more important to look at his shot distribution and for the restricted area, it has been:
36% of all shots during his rookie season
30% last season
30% this season

So if anything, Tatum is taking similar if not less shots in the restricted area proportional to his total shots.

Like I mentioned, PnR has so many factors. You can definitely say Horford and Baynes were great pick setters, but at the same time, you can go the opposite way and say that Theis isn't an above the rim threat or Timelord doesn't get enough playtime. A top flight player will have great PnR regardless of personnel. For everyone else, the numbers get messy because your roll guy affects how the handler is covered. That's why I try to steer away from talking about those PnR tracking stats.

Tatum's weakness has been shot selection, not necessarily passing. He's alright as a wing passer, nothing like a Booker, but not near the like Marcus Morris.




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[VanWest82]

It's not like Tatum has a bad handle and his PnR numbers in the past haven't been as bad. I don't really like to rely on PnR numbers anyways because that playtype is heavily affected by the pick setter unlike ISOs and postups.

Even if you want to count contested shots, you have to remember Tatum is taking more shots in general.

He's taking 6.4 shots within five feet of the basket this year vs. 4.3 last year. If we assume those extra two shots are likely contested (as shots near the rim tend to be) then that might help explain the dip in efficiency there.

As for pick quality, Al Horford has long been considered one of the best pick setters in the league with Aron Baynes being one of the few guys I'd put above him. If anything Tatum benefited tremendously from that his first two years. His lack of PnR IQ has been discussed in several places including on Simmons's podcast -- one of the biggest Tatum homers out there -- as an area where he needs to improve. Same with his handle. There was a reason why he was being used so infrequently as a PnR ball handler prior to this year.

Again, Tatum is taking more shots in general so shot attempts in every area is going to jump up. It's more important to look at his shot distribution and for the restricted area, it has been:
36% of all shots during his rookie season
30% last season
30% this season

So if anything, Tatum is taking similar if not less shots in the restricted area proportional to his total shots.

Like I mentioned, PnR has so many factors. You can definitely say Horford and Baynes were great pick setters, but at the same time, you can go the opposite way and say that Theis isn't an above the rim threat or Timelord doesn't get enough playtime. A top flight player will have great PnR regardless of personnel. For everyone else, the numbers get messy because your roll guy affects how the handler is covered. That's why I try to steer away from talking about those PnR tracking stats.

Tatum's weakness has been shot selection, not necessarily passing. He's alright as a wing passer, nothing like a Booker, but not near the like Marcus Morris.

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I don't understand your point about the shots increasing in general. We have the breakdown by range and it's not equal. He's pretty much flush year over year for FGAs between 5-25 feet. Almost all of the increase in shots have happened within 5 feet and 25+ feet from the basket. We also know that he's shooting more contested shots. It's unlikely that increase in contested shots is happening 25+ feet from the basket, so unless he's shooting a much higher percentage of contested shots from 5-25 feet, it's likely that increase is from the bump in FGAs within 5 feet, which would make a lot more sense and help explain drop in efficiency there.

RE PnR tracking...I hear you. It's not perfect. I think we can use some common sense though. Horford and Baynes were quality PnP bigs which opened the lane for drivers, and we're only talking about PnR where the handler finished the play. If your argument is that we can't accurately compare last year ppp to this year because of the downgrade in big talent, then sure -- that makes sense. I think the better evidence is the number of possessions a team uses a player for a specific play type. Tatum finished ~2 PnR in each of his first two seasons. Pretty small number, right? This year he's finishing ~5. That might not sound like much but it's a pretty big jump over the course of a season, and doesn't take into account all the PnR he started but didn't finish. It's also significant in relation to the rest of of his added responsibilities without any obvious evidence that this added responsibility is warranted.

[Pelly24]

He's not a great athlete, can't get to the line or the rim so there are no easy shots for him. In addition to that, he's not a truly great shooter.

[jason bourne]

Wrong team? Not a great fit with the Celtics?

It seems every year we get this complaint.

[Patsfan1081]

He's not a great athlete, can't get to the line or the rim so there are no easy shots for him. In addition to that, he's not a truly great shooter.

These observations keep on getting better and better. He can't get to the rim? That's not true at all.He's very good atbit because of his length, which makes it difficult to draw fouls. Even with his shooting slump to start the year he's still 46/40 so far, which is better than Irving's time in Cleveland, who at the time I'm pretty sure you would have said was a great shooter. Tatum has two seasons under his belt, I'm sure if you put his efficiency up vs the top wings first two seasons in the league he fair pretty well. This isn't considering that if you look at the best wings in the league they almost all weren't one and done either. People for some reason want to compare him to vets who are already developed. How many times per game did Leonard, George, Butler, Beal, etc... get to the line their soph season in the league? Not as many as Tatum. How efficient were they up to this point in Tatum's developement?

[Patsfan1081]

So I went through the nba.com tracking numbers...Very little has changed in terms of splits between number of dribbles taken before a shot, and as you say his isolations are down, but he's being used more as the ball handler in PnR which he isn't very good at yet (0.8 ppp; 41st percentile) so that would support my theory, but not enough to explain the discrepancy.

The main thing that stands out is he's taking more shots where a defender is within 2-4 feet (edit: 6.3 contested FGAs per game last year vs. 9.9 this year). They don't further break that down in terms of where those specific shots are taken on the court, but I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are at the rim.

It's not like Tatum has a bad handle and his PnR numbers in the past haven't been as bad. I don't really like to rely on PnR numbers anyways because that playtype is heavily affected by the pick setter unlike ISOs and postups.

Even if you want to count contested shots, you have to remember Tatum is taking more shots in general.

He's taking 6.4 shots within five feet of the basket this year vs. 4.3 last year. If we assume those extra two shots are likely contested (as shots near the rim tend to be) then that might help explain the dip in efficiency there.

As for pick quality, Al Horford has long been considered one of the best pick setters in the league with Aron Baynes being one of the few guys I'd put above him. If anything Tatum benefited tremendously from that his first two years. His lack of PnR IQ has been discussed in several places including on Simmons's podcast -- one of the biggest Tatum homers out there -- as an area where he needs to improve. Same with his handle. There was a reason why he was being used so infrequently as a PnR ball handler prior to this year.

I've watched every Celtic game this season, and despite being a Celtic honk I'm not huge on Tatum(I believe Brown will be a better player). The kid is just missing bunnies at the rim, there really isn't some big explanation. He's missing open layups and some easy floaters that you usually see rotational players make. His touch doesn't look very soft either on top of it. Boston doesn't have the talented big men to set good picks either but I don't really see that as the issue, if anything he needs to learn when to kick it out to the open man when the defense breaks down as he attacks.

[ballup]

He's taking 6.4 shots within five feet of the basket this year vs. 4.3 last year. If we assume those extra two shots are likely contested (as shots near the rim tend to be) then that might help explain the dip in efficiency there.

As for pick quality, Al Horford has long been considered one of the best pick setters in the league with Aron Baynes being one of the few guys I'd put above him. If anything Tatum benefited tremendously from that his first two years. His lack of PnR IQ has been discussed in several places including on Simmons's podcast -- one of the biggest Tatum homers out there -- as an area where he needs to improve. Same with his handle. There was a reason why he was being used so infrequently as a PnR ball handler prior to this year.

Again, Tatum is taking more shots in general so shot attempts in every area is going to jump up. It's more important to look at his shot distribution and for the restricted area, it has been:
36% of all shots during his rookie season
30% last season
30% this season

So if anything, Tatum is taking similar if not less shots in the restricted area proportional to his total shots.

Like I mentioned, PnR has so many factors. You can definitely say Horford and Baynes were great pick setters, but at the same time, you can go the opposite way and say that Theis isn't an above the rim threat or Timelord doesn't get enough playtime. A top flight player will have great PnR regardless of personnel. For everyone else, the numbers get messy because your roll guy affects how the handler is covered. That's why I try to steer away from talking about those PnR tracking stats.

Tatum's weakness has been shot selection, not necessarily passing. He's alright as a wing passer, nothing like a Booker, but not near the like Marcus Morris.

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I don't understand your point about the shots increasing in general. We have the breakdown by range and it's not equal. He's pretty much flush year over year for FGAs between 5-25 feet. Almost all of the increase in shots have happened within 5 feet and 25+ feet from the basket. We also know that he's shooting more contested shots. It's unlikely that increase in contested shots is happening 25+ feet from the basket, so unless he's shooting a much higher percentage of contested shots from MR, it's likely that increase is from the bump in FGAs within 5 feet, which would help explain drop in efficiency there.

RE PnR tracking...I hear you. It's not perfect. I think we can use some common sense though. Horford and Baynes were quality PnP bigs which opened the lane for drivers, and we're only talking about PnR where the handler finished the play. If your argument is that we can't compare last year ppp to this year because of the downgrade in big talent, then sure -- that makes sense. I think the better evidence is the number of possessions a team uses a player for a specific play type. Tatum finished ~2 PnR in each of his first two seasons. Pretty small number, right? This year he's finishing ~5. That might not sound like much but it's a pretty big number over the course of a season, and doesn't take into account all the PnR he started but didn't finish. It's a significant jump in relation to the rest of of his added responsibilities without any obvious evidence that this added responsibility is warranted.

Tatum's average FGA over the years:
'18 - 10 FGA
'19 - 13 FGA
'20 - 18 FGA

Now here is how many of Tatum's shots come from the restricted area:
'18 - 36%
'19 - 30%
'20 - 31%

He's shooting more shots in total, but he isn't shooting in the restricted area more frequently. If we want to look at contested shots, it's not much of a different story. Sure he is taking more contested shots (5.8 two point contested shots last season to 8.5 two point contested shots this season), but frequency has not changed significantly (contested 2P shots consist of 44% of all total shots last season compared to 45% this season). In addition, Tatum's percentages dropped heavily from last season to this season(-19% on very tight shots and -10% on tight shots).

You have a point about increase of load responsibilities relative to PnR. If you asked to do more, than yeah it can affevt your shot making. You have a crazy variance where Tatum dropped to 0.80 PPP while someone like Smart, who has always been an objectively a worse shooter from everywhere, is averaging 1.12 PPP on PnR when he averaged 0.82 PPP last season. I just don't think we can point to PnR as the reason why Tatum's finishing hasn't been to par.

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[Blaze4G]

See the fear is real. There was a time in Boston where management would have been brave and believed their incredible culture would win over the player. That’s what happens with KG and that was the last time they won a championship. If they had managed to get Kawhi despite the cost then they probably would have had a championship last year. This year they probably could have got one if they had worked out a deal for AD. There’s always an excuse to be an also-ran. No risk takers left I guess. Probably what happens when you feel safe in your job like Ainge does. But Celts will never win a championship the way they are building that team.

If you don't know what you're talking about it is best not to say anything. We didn't win over KG, he signed an extension with the trade.

I like your "probabilities". You really think just trading for a super star makes the team "probably" win a championship? There is much more that goes into winning a championship. Probably means almost certainly.

My mistake. I’m sure Carson Edwards and Tacko Falls will bring you guys to the promised land!

Not shocked. Expected to receive a childish response. Its usually the last resort when you know you're wrong and instead of admitting it you just remain wrong and strong.

[WillyJakkz]

5-17 tonite back down to .408 for the yr and taking 18 shots to score 20ppg after 16 games.

The team is winning but he is struggling with his shot. Tonite it seems like the scheme is the problem along with his strength.

[basketballRob]

Is he still number 2 in a redraft? Mitchell, Tatum, Fox, Bam, Isaac, Markkanen.

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[reflex35]

Jayson is ok but his stats and % are not fine.

He currently is 20pts scorer with 40% Fg% and is 34.6% 3point shooter.
Nothing to talk about.....

His PER is only 16.1.

Let's see realistically what he is - not an efficient scorer, who hopefully can improve as he's still young.

[everdiso]

When hayward comes back, Tatum should come out of the starting lineup.

[basketballRob]

Tatum will be fine, he just has to adjust to playing more minutes. It may happen this year.

I think Bam, Isaac, and Fultz are closing the gap on best players in that draft class.

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[jfs1000d]

Tatum is fine. He isn’t finishing at the rim. His body is slightly out of control on the drive. He just needs to slow down a hair or work on body control. I watch every game. He doesn’t have far to go to be a great scorer.


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[jumblin]

Tatum would be far better off if stopped trying to make himself the focal point of the offense. He's not a good enough dribbler or passer to possess the ball as much as he does. He makes himself an easy guy to defend against because his offensive game is largely limited to taking drives to the basket and putting up contested shots, there is not much mystery to what he's gonna do.

I'd actually like to see them run PnR will Tatum as the pick guy. He's finally big enough to be able to do it, and he can actually hit mid range jumpers unlike Theis or Timelord. And he's a million times faster than Theis at getting a shot up if he's goes to the rim.

[Gant]

I wouldn't say Tatum is struggling, but rather "developing."

[ATLTimekeeper]

I wouldn't say Tatum is struggling, but rather "developing."

Exactly. I think part of the problem is that his rookie year raised expectations beyond reason. Prior to the draft he was seen in a similar talent cache/role as someone like Tobias Harris, and while they're not twins I think he's about there right now. After his rookie season people were talking about him being a face of the league-type of player. He'll likely exceed Tobias Harris but fall short of Kobe.

[Karate Diop]

5-17 tonite back down to .408 for the yr and taking 18 shots to score 20ppg after 16 games.

The team is winning but he is struggling with his shot. Tonite it seems like the scheme is the problem along with his strength.

To be fair, Tatum hates / is afraid of getting physical and once the Nets started bumping him off his spot from the start you just knew he'd check out / chuck.

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