Post-Mortem: 2021-22 Toronto Raptors

[Optms]

I get that the "treadmill" thing is coming from people who just like annoying Raps fans, but I don't know how a team that has the Rookie of the Year is on a treadmill.

If the Hawks are a treadmill team with Trae Young, then the Raptors are classic treadmill. Where can they go from here with this roster core? Realistically? About the same as this season really.

Someone said it earlier in this thread. They are a prime candidate to regress next season ala the Hawks this season. They overachieved. But not as much as the Hawks did last year.

[ciueli]

I get that the "treadmill" thing is coming from people who just like annoying Raps fans, but I don't know how a team that has the Rookie of the Year is on a treadmill.

Michael Carter-Williams was the rookie of the year. Malcolm Brodgon was the rookie of the year.

It's obvious that Scottie Barnes, just like both of them, will NEVER be a superstar.

And of course, there's no one else on their roster with superstar upside either.

Based on what? You just went on wikipedia and looked at some of the more unimpressive ROTY. Did you miss Tyreke Evans?

Brogdon was nearly 4 years older than Scottie during his rookie season and didn't play as many minutes in a season as Scottie has until he was 28. MCW was 2 years older, had 48% True Shooting vs. 55% for Scottie and was virtually a non 3 point shooter, Scottie already has a better 3 point shooting season than MCW has had in his whole career and lack of a perimeter shot coming out of college was the biggest knock on him. Context is everything.

[JShuttlesworth]

The Raptors still look like a lock for a playoffs again next year, but probably still wont be good enough to get out of the 1st Round.

I think that if the Raptors re-up on both Gary and Fred on extensions next year, they're on a classic 'treadmill'. Running it back with the same core roster season after season. But is that we worst thing?

The term treadmill is generally overused though, and probably has more negative connotation than it deserves. You're either contending or you aren't, and only a handful of teams are truly contenders each season. Last time we had a 'treadmill core', we traded for Kawhi and won. There are many ways to get to where you want to go

[NeoDragonKnight]

People have no clue what treadmill even means anymore, a treadmill team refers to a team that barely makes the playoffs or not at all year in year out and are maxed out on players already in their primes along with declining veterans. This is because there is no room to improve, even through trades as their pieces are not valuable, everyone is at their max potential/development being in their late 20s and older. This was the Vince Carter era Raptors where they could not replace their veterans and had no up an coming talent behind vince. How is the current Toronto a treadmill team when they just began their new era playoffs this year and they have one of the youngest teams in the league, even if you think their current team isn't good enough past 1st round which maybe true, they have so much potential to get better not only through player development but young assets to trade.

[ATLTimekeeper]

In 2013/14, who called the next 7 titles Golden State, Cleveland, Golden State, Golden State, Toronto, LAL, Milwaukee? I'm sure all those teams had loads of general support for the way they were building right up until they became contenders.

[Parataxis]

Is it safe to assume that the 9 posters who think the Raptors should fire their GM are doing it so that their team can hire Masai and Bobby for themselves?

[DangerZone13]

To shed some light on the Thad Young trade for those still as confused as many of us Raps fans were when it happened:

Thad had a great influence on Precious Achiuwa especially who took a nice leap post-trade.
Scottie latched onto Dragic early in the year, so I think the team wanted to put a vet that would be a good influence on and off the floor for their now ROY.

Thad has played the style that the Raptors are leaning into for like 15 years now, and that experience helping guide the young team through some of their first NBA playoff minutes will prove valuable leading into next year. Even the end of bench young fellas like Banton and Champagnie surely learned from Thad as well.

This trade will still be popular to yell about if any player picked between those picks is better than who is picked at 33, but it was a good gamble to invest in the birds in hand.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

I get that the "treadmill" thing is coming from people who just like annoying Raps fans, but I don't know how a team that has the Rookie of the Year is on a treadmill.

If the Hawks are a treadmill team with Trae Young, then the Raptors are classic treadmill. Where can they go from here with this roster core? Realistically? About the same as this season really.

Someone said it earlier in this thread. They are a prime candidate to regress next season ala the Hawks this season. They overachieved. But not as much as the Hawks did last year.

regress? na.

1. Precious and Barnes were not good overall players to start the season
2. Raps basically played the entire season without a backup point guard or a bench.
3. OG + Siakam - both near/at the beginning of the season were injured.
4. Siakam wasn't even considered an all star by all star break. and now he's considered for a spot on the top 3 all-nba teams
5. FVV was hurt shortly before the all star break all the way to the playoffs.
6. Hawks 17th youngest team, Raps 8th youngest team this season.

The Raptors are more likely to rise based on a more extent of what happened during the season. Raptors almost always do better than their expectations from "analysts" because they always overlook the non-sexy names on the roster.

the key is the the growth of Precious and Barnes this upcoming off season - because both these players didn't know how to shoot to begin the season and Precious shot 39% from 3 post- all star as a 22yo on higher volume, as an example.

things they can address this off-season into the 2022-2023 season

1. Raps get a bench and a backup point guard
2. Raptors draft picks from last year - Delano Banton and Champagnie, David Johnson, will contribute as bench players more so than this past year's bench - will definitely be more effective than Svi, Yuta, Bonga, Flynn, off of the bench.
3. Siakam playing like himself to start the season without coming off surgery
4. FVV's minutes monitor because Raps finally get a bench - and just be healthy the entire season
5. Barnes improves into y2 as a 21yo
6. Precious improves into y3 as a 23yo
7. OG improves into y6 as a 25yo
8. GTJ improves into y7 as a 24yo

ya i don't know how they will "regress" based on the above factors. Raps are a young team. so many things that could have prevented the Raptors from being successful did happen. FVV hurt, Siakam out to begin the season, players too young. but they still got to 48 wins despite all of that.

[tsherkin]

Michael Carter-Williams was the rookie of the year. Malcolm Brodgon was the rookie of the year.

It's obvious that Scottie Barnes, just like both of them, will NEVER be a superstar.

Based on what? Did he sleep with your mom or something? Like, I'm not predicting superstardom from Scottie, but you seem pretty sure for someone who hasn't seen 82 games of him playing. Scored well in role as a rookie, rebounded well, showcasing good signs of playmaking. Has hints of range, though obviously inconsistent and struggled as a rookie. Good athleticism and size. Net positive player as a rookie, which is good. Looked very good in his first postseason appearance.

Like, did you go hunting for ROY busts to find names just to take a crap on Scottie, or do you have substantive reasoning for your claim?

[Duffman100]

I get that the "treadmill" thing is coming from people who just like annoying Raps fans, but I don't know how a team that has the Rookie of the Year is on a treadmill.

Michael Carter-Williams was the rookie of the year. Malcolm Brodgon was the rookie of the year.

It's obvious that Scottie Barnes, just like both of them, will NEVER be a superstar.

And of course, there's no one else on their roster with superstar upside either.

Someone is still salty from the Embiid injury.

[hippesthippo]

Raps need a guy who plays the 5 with legit size. I'd be interested to see what they could do with a guy like Mo Bamba.

Assuming Barnes keeps trending upwards like most Raptor players, I expect them to be a top5 seed again in the East with a chance to make more noise.

Oh, and that bench... yeesh. Maybe they trade Pascal for a 1st and 2-3 solid young guys?

[anotherhomer]

scottie may never be a superstar no one knows, but comparing him to carter williams and brogdon... lol stop it

have to agree.
while i hope scottie becomes that superstar, he be a good player at least.
He did come from a very strong rookie class.

Carter williams and brogdon were from a really weak rookie year
Chris Duarte had almost a good if not better rookie yr than Brogdan and wasn't even consideration

The below finalists would had done ROTY any other year
Cade averaged 17/5/5 and didn't win the ROY
Evan averaged 15/8 and 2.5 assist and 1.7 blocks and didn't get ROY

These guys didn't even get ROTY considerations, and could had won ROTY
Franz Wagner (15.2 pts, 4.5 rbs, 2.9 assist, 35% 3PT)
Jalen Green (17.3 points a game, 2.3 3PM)
Josh Giddey (12.5/7.7reb/6.4assist)

Then there's Ayo Dosunmu, Kuminga, Davion Mitchell, Chris Duarte, Herbert Jones, Alperun Sengun, Jalen Suggs, Tree Mann

[FluLikeSymptoms]

The Raptors’ scheme is still a work in progress. They ran into the worst matchup in the conference, one of two dominant Cs in the league who could theoretically hack the scheme, and hung in there- despite being injury/illness riddled, their leader sidelined, and key players being in their 1st and 2nd year in the league. The Raps were lucky to have this experience right away. They could use a legit big as a matchup guy off the bench for a few minutes per half to throw 1v1 coverage at 2 bigs in the league, MVP candidates, to mix up the look, friggin Robin Lopez would do, but TO clearly will not be abandoning the project. They’ll be encouraged.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Raps need a guy who plays the 5 with legit size. I'd be interested to see what they could do with a guy like Mo Bamba.

Assuming Barnes keeps trending upwards like most Raptor players, I expect them to be a top5 seed again in the East with a chance to make more noise.

Oh, and that bench... yeesh. Maybe they trade Pascal for a 1st and 2-3 solid young guys?

few big men can contain Embiid/Jokic

Siakam won't be traded for young pieces - Raps already 8th youngest team in the NBA. Siakam is only 28yo. lol

hopefully a full season of Thad Young as vet off of the bench from 3/4 position.

who i really hope they sign in the offseason is Jalen Smith, young big man who can defend and can shoot with some of all of the MLE for multiple years.

but i wouldn't be suprised if they go after a guy like Monk for the 6th man.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Yup, Golden State just got demolished by Jokic and won in 5. The Raptors were unhealthy and too young to beat the 76ers. It wasn't a style of play thing.

[srhcan]

The Raptors still look like a lock for a playoffs again next year, but probably still wont be good enough to get out of the 1st Round.

I think that if the Raptors re-up on both Gary and Fred on extensions next year, they're on a classic 'treadmill'. Running it back with the same core roster season after season. But is that we worst thing?

The term treadmill is generally overused though, and probably has more negative connotation than it deserves. You're either contending or you aren't, and only a handful of teams are truly contenders each season. Last time we had a 'treadmill core', we traded for Kawhi and won. There are many ways to get to where you want to go

Treadmill means you are stuck at a level. You are not talented enough to go above that level. And yet you still have enough talent that you would not fall below that level. Thats the no-man's land Shaq was referring to that Raptors are at and I agree. I would say these are the levels:
1. Championship Contender Level
2. Playoff 2nd Round Level
3. Make Playoff without needing Playin Level (would not get past 1st Round)
4. Make Playoff via Playin Level (would not get past 1st Round)
5. Try hard but could not make Playoff Level
6. Dont even think about Playoff Level

Raptors are at Level 3. They should be able to make playoffs without playin needed. But they cannot get past 1st round with what they have. Hope is 1 more year of Scottie and Achiuwa will propel them to Level 2 assuming Fred and Siakam do not regress. To go to Level 1 they need couple of years of Scottie and Achiuwa together and need to make some trades.

[whitehops]

in hindsight the raps success this season shouldn't have been that big a surprise. they had the fourth overall pick this year but were in much different shape than the teams drafting around them. they actually had the 7th worst record in 2021 so they weren't complete basement dwellers, and even their record didn't do them service. they finished the season with the 19th best net rating and if you remove the final 8 games of the season where they went on a hard tank, their net rating was actually +0.4 which would've ranked 16th in the league and above miami (who was the 8th seed in the east).

considering they had the same core (siakam, FVV, OG and GTJ) this season they had a very solid foundation. lowry getting traded allowed them to not play 2 6'0 guards together and their defense made a good leap. their offense was about league average again this season but the defensive leap made up for it. their top 6 rotation players are all under contract next season they can run it back next season. it'll be interesting to see if they can add a more traditional center to help with certain matchups but really unless they manage to add a primary creator (or add a solid secondary creator) then i'd guess they finish about the same in the 45-48 win range.

[JShuttlesworth]

The Raptors still look like a lock for a playoffs again next year, but probably still wont be good enough to get out of the 1st Round.

I think that if the Raptors re-up on both Gary and Fred on extensions next year, they're on a classic 'treadmill'. Running it back with the same core roster season after season. But is that we worst thing?

The term treadmill is generally overused though, and probably has more negative connotation than it deserves. You're either contending or you aren't, and only a handful of teams are truly contenders each season. Last time we had a 'treadmill core', we traded for Kawhi and won. There are many ways to get to where you want to go

Treadmill means you are stuck at a level. You are not talented enough to go above that level. And yet you still have enough talent that you would not fall below that level. Thats the no-man's land Shaq was referring to that Raptors are at and I agree. I would say these are the levels:
1. Championship Contender Level
2. Playoff 2nd Round Level
3. Playoff 1st Round Level
4. Make Playoffs via Playin Level
5. Non Playoff Level

Raptors are at Level 3. They should be able to make playoffs without playin needed. But they cannot get past 1st round with what they have. Hope is 1 more year of Scottie and Achiuwa will propel them to Level 2 assuming Fred and Siakam do not regress. To go to Level 1 they need couple of years of Scottie and Achiuwa together and need to make some trades.

Totally, but I think people tend use treadmill to describe being stuck at Level 3-4 (to use yours from above), where as I tend to agree with your framing of it. We're totally stuck at Level 3 unless Scottie takes a big leap.

I have no problem with what the TNT crew said.

[Murray_17]

I get that the "treadmill" thing is coming from people who just like annoying Raps fans, but I don't know how a team that has the Rookie of the Year is on a treadmill.

Barnes is amazing but he isn't gonna reach his peak level until 3 or 4 years in the future. By that time Siakam and FVV are going to be on the decline

Unless Achiuwa and Trent Jr become borderline All star guys they're capped on the potential for the roster.

[bisme37]

I get that the "treadmill" thing is coming from people who just like annoying Raps fans, but I don't know how a team that has the Rookie of the Year is on a treadmill.

Barnes is amazing but he isn't gonna reach his peak level until 3 or 4 years in the future. By that time Siakam and FVV are going to be on the decline

Unless Achiuwa and Trent Jr become borderline All star guys they're capped on the potential for the roster.

It just feels like people (cough cough a handful of Sixers fans) are jumping through hoops to lay the situation out in the most unflattering way they can think of.

When we talk about treadmill teams it's usually about a team that's been stuck in the same place for years and has a mediocre veteran core that isn't going to get any better.

In this case the people who are saying treadmill are trying to Nostradamus some scenario where Barnes turns into a scrub, other young Raps do not improve, the franchise makes no good moves over the next few years, and everything generally goes to hell. That's only one possible future outcome and doesn't really have anything to do with a treadmill.