NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (part 4 - The Final MVP Countdown!)

[ken6199]

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Thank god that the 76ers have two top-10 MVP guys is all I have to say. Things would look really ugly if you swapped Harden out for Murray.

The funny part of this is, this year folks can also say, "Embiid does not play with another all star"

Basically it's either top-10 MVP player or a non all-star depending on your argument, which makes him a really versatile player in Embiid's MVP case.

[eyeatoma]

Latest Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill thinks Embiid could win it. Thinks he's on a tear, and recency matters. Thinks that he's having an all time scoring season especially as a center. Thinks Philly, Denver, Milwaukee are all playing for seeding so these games matter. Ryen says he's not sure, but is not decided, easily could see it as Embiid as well. Both say that this is going to go down to the wire. This is like Westbrook winning the MVP at the end with a bunch of clutch performances the last month.

[Sharkboy242]

Latest Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill thinks Embiid could win it. Thinks he's on a tear, and recency matters. Thinks that he's having an all time scoring season especially as a center. Thinks Philly, Denver, Milwaukee are all playing for seeding so these games matter. Ryan says he's not sure, but is not decided, easily could see it as Embiid as well. Both say that this is going to go down to the wire. This is like Westbrook winning the MVP at the end with a bunch of clutch performances the last month.

Seems reasonable. By no means in this wrapped up for Jokic, especially w the trajectory the Nuggets have been on.

[Jadoogar]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

[Bum Adebayo]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

[Jadoogar]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

But he's not Embiid.
Plus these last 4 games, he's been legitimately bad. The spurs and bulls should not be scoring this much on a title contender.

[dWadeOwnzYou]

I think the tide has shifted.

[stoo]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

But he's not Embiid.
Plus these last 4 games, he's been legitimately bad. The spurs and bulls should not be scoring this much on a title contender.

he was very good on defense against Nets

[Sixerscan]

Sure, but it’s not like the best offensive player has these crazy defensive stats every year. He’s just vaguely making an assertion so again I’m not sure exactly what I’m refuting but I really doubt being a good offensive player has anywhere near the impact on these stats compared to him having great rebounding numbers and a high steal rate for a center so the metrics assume he’s prime Olajuwon on defense because that’s a huge portion of what it has to go on from an individual statistic standpoint.

have you considerd not all good offense is created equal?

example A. - a player scores within the flow of the offense, with members of his team already starting to get back on defense before the play is even done

example B. - a player scores in a drive but ends up on the floor while the opponent inbounds and starts a possesion after a made basket but - 4 on 5 on the floor

see what i mean?
playstyle, i.Q, statetegy etc. are all in play

not all great offensive players have an innate "fixed" contribution to their team's defenses that's true
but some do more than others and like I said - in the rs, Jokic has clearly been that guy

Great points.

The thing is that regardless of which players are actually better or worse, a team's strategy my be shifting apparent offensive vs defensive impact by metrics like this.

A team's strategy can affect a player's overall impact as well of course, but while that's not necessarily the player's fault in terms of what it says about how good he is in the abstract, it does say something real about his on-court value presuming we have enough sample to have confidence in what we see.

ORtg vs DRtg-wise though, all more sample tells us is that the data isn't do to noise, not that it has to be the product of the side of the court it purports to speak to.

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

[liquidswords]

I think I've made like 5 posts in this thread about how Jokic is hands down the MVP. As of 3/13, he doesn't deserve it anymore. This is the Joel Embiid show.

[AleksandarN]

Latest Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill thinks Embiid could win it. Thinks he's on a tear, and recency matters. Thinks that he's having an all time scoring season especially as a center. Thinks Philly, Denver, Milwaukee are all playing for seeding so these games matter. Ryen says he's not sure, but is not decided, easily could see it as Embiid as well. Both say that this is going to go down to the wire. This is like Westbrook winning the MVP at the end with a bunch of clutch performances the last month.

Oh I thought it was some kind of Zach Lower/Ringer conspiracy getting people to vote for Jokic. Lol

[AleksandarN]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

Nice move optm should take notes on trolling. Well done sir.

[Bum Adebayo]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

Nice move optm should take notes on trolling. Well done sir.

What? look at his DRPM, he is a solid defender, why would this be trolling?

[AleksandarN]

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

Nice move optm should take notes on trolling. Well done sir.

What? look at his DRPM, he is a solid defender, why would this be trolling?

You get a like sir.

[Jailblazers7]

If Embiid gets the better of Jokic again in Denver then it’s game over Embiid wins MVP. There’s already enough criticism bubbling that another h2h win for Embiid will be impossible to overcome.

[sixers4real]

Embiid will win it if the Sixers finish better then Denver and they beat the Nuggets in Denver March 27th.

[bisme37]

Bloody hell, you guys. I was hoping this thread would be slightly less hostile but we already have people calling each other obnoxious, angry, jealous, petty, ignorant cowards and clowns.

Personal attacks are not allowed. I say this so often I may as well wake up in a cold sweat yelling it at my cat, but somehow people still haven't gotten the message. Debate the posts you disagree with as strongly as you like, but don't insult the posters themselves. It's just basic RGM policy.

The playoffs are about to start and I don't imagine anyone wants to be suspended from posting. So pretty please clean it up. Thx.

[dygaction]

A glance at the poll I saw Jokic 32% "will win", but then found he got 57 votes vs. 25 votes for all others combined. Looking through the posts you would think he is losing it. Seems like silent majority have made up their minds and don't want to argue anymore.

[ken6199]

Recency bias is real, with 16-17 being the perfect example.

All you need to do is have a great story (t-dub without KD) and some moments on national TV in March and April, then whatever happened before that would be easily forgotten because "he showed up when it matters!". To me that MVP race was decided right here:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

[eyeatoma]

I'm a big jokic fan and i know it's only a 4 game stretch but these have been terrible teams and the nuggets have really struggled. Jokic's defense has been horrible.

Jokic being bad on defense is a myth, countless stats show this is not true, of course any player has a bad game or two but overall he has been a solid defender.

But he's not Embiid.
Plus these last 4 games, he's been legitimately bad. The spurs and bulls should not be scoring this much on a title contender.

he does this on our board too. He does it to get a rise out of people.
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