2024-25 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt. 4: Who is the ROY?)

dautjazz · Post #161 » by **dautjazz** » Sat Apr 12, 2025 3:39 am

Chuck Everett wrote:I hate to do this regarding Flip, but these Jazz numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. This isn't like the Wizards playing Sarr, George, Carrington, and now Johnson developmental minutes from the get-go.

I can't really evaluate what's happening in Utah because their guys are in and out of the lineup (and rarely for injury). It's obviously good that he's getting numbers, but I want to see who's doing what once they try to win or just go full youth movement. If they end up picking 4-5 and not 1-2, it will be interesting to see how real his numbers are with Lauri and Kessler playing full-time.

Although, on the other hand, maybe his play makes them want to move on from Kessler.

He's averaging ..600 TS%, so he's been efficient .

Post #162 » by **G R E Y** » Sat Apr 12, 2025 1:25 pm

16 on 6-10, 2-5 from 3, 2-2FTs, 10 assists, 4 boards, 1 steal, 2TOs last night vs. Suns.

March: 19.5, 4.4 boards, 4.8 assists

April: 18.7, 6.7 boards, 7.7 assists

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Post #163 » by **tsherkin** » Sat Apr 12, 2025 11:05 pm

G R E Y wrote:16 on 6-10, 2-5 from 3, 2-2FTs, 10 assists, 4 boards, 1 steal, 2TOs last night vs. Suns.

March: 19.5, 4.4 boards, 4.8 assists

April: 18.7, 6.7 boards, 7.7 assists

March: 54.6% TS
April (7 games): 57.4% TS (first month over 54.6%)

He has a couple of recent games shooting highly unsustainable percentages boosting his raw efficiency in that small volume in April, too.

Castle's definitely a guy I want to see over next year to see if I should care, but right now, he isn't stunning, and a little run at the end of the year isn't that titillating to me. For the Spurs' sake, I hope he finds a way to be good next year. Shooting wasn't his thing at UConn, but he's young and he is taking on a higher-usage role over the second half of the year, so we'll see if that can turn into something exciting for San Antonio.

The Master · Post #164 » by **The Master** » Sat Apr 12, 2025 11:43 pm

tsherkin wrote:March: 54.6% TS
April (7 games): 57.4% TS (first month over 54.6%)

He has a couple of recent games shooting highly unsustainable percentages boosting his raw efficiency in that small volume in April, too.

Castle's definitely a guy I want to see over next year to see if I should care, but right now, he isn't stunning, and a little run at the end of the year isn't that titillating to me. For the Spurs' sake, I hope he finds a way to be good next year. Shooting wasn't his thing at UConn, but he's young and he is taking on a higher-usage role over the second half of the year, so we'll see if that can turn into something exciting for San Antonio.

Castle is an example how hard it is to project young players nowadays considering on regular basis we see non-shooters actually becoming at least decent in catch and shoot situations, but it's not a rule.

+30% of FGs at rim, +66%FG at 0-3ft,
140 AST - 66 TOV in 25 games when he started to play as an A-option on offense,
High defensive potential
Atrocious shooting splits: 28.5% from 3, 72% from FT, 37.5% from 10-16 FT, 33.3% from 16-3P

He clearly has potential to become two-way secondary scorer-secondary playmaker-PoA type of defender, his splits for a 20yo in FG% at rim/defensive instincts/on-ball potential are really good, so if he improves his shooting to the level of let's say Jaylen Brown (who was a pretty bad shooter himself in college) his ceiling is really high - but he can be unplayable from perspective of Spurs' aspirations if he's unable to actually improve his shooting.

15 years ago, I don't think I'd be high on Castle as a prospect - but in the recent years we saw that offensively speaking, shooting is one skill the easiest to fix. It's still far from being given though.

Post #165 » by **tsherkin** » Sun Apr 13, 2025 1:32 am

The Master wrote:Castle is an example how hard it is to project young players nowadays considering on regular basis we see non-shooters actually becoming at least decent in catch and shoot situations, but it's not a rule.

That generally happens on pure C+S 3s in the corners, but yes, it does happen under fairly specific, limited circumstances.

He clearly has potential to become two-way secondary scorer-secondary playmaker-PoA type of defender, his splits for a 20yo in FG% at rim/defensive instincts/on-ball potential are really good, so if he improves his shooting to the level of let's say Jaylen Brown (who was a pretty bad shooter himself in college) his ceiling is really high - but he can be unplayable from perspective of Spurs' aspirations if he's unable to actually improve his shooting.

We'll have to see. He's young enough that it's hard to tell with him. On the season, he's been an oxygen thief away from the rim, but he's also only like 20 years old with a single year of college and now this NBA season under his belt. Developmental curves work a little differently in that context.

but in the recent years we saw that offensively speaking, shooting is one skill the easiest to fix.

I don't think we've seen that at all, no.

Post #166 » by **G R E Y** » Sun Apr 13, 2025 4:18 am

tsherkin wrote:
G R E Y wrote:16 on 6-10, 2-5 from 3, 2-2FTs, 10 assists, 4 boards, 1 steal, 2TOs last night vs. Suns.

March: 19.5, 4.4 boards, 4.8 assists

April: 18.7, 6.7 boards, 7.7 assists

March: 54.6% TS
April (7 games): 57.4% TS (first month over 54.6%)

He has a couple of recent games shooting highly unsustainable percentages boosting his raw efficiency in that small volume in April, too.

Castle's definitely a guy I want to see over next year to see if I should care, but right now, he isn't stunning, and a little run at the end of the year isn't that titillating to me. For the Spurs' sake, I hope he finds a way to be good next year. Shooting wasn't his thing at UConn, but he's young and he is taking on a higher-usage role over the second half of the year, so we'll see if that can turn into something exciting for San Antonio.

I think basic to advanced stats, especially for rookies, are more of guideposts than set predictors. Of course if a guy comes in known for skillset A ie/shooting he'll be more efficient and project differently than another who is less known for A bit more for skills B or C ie/Castle getting to the FT line well. And outside of a particular wheelhouse, how has each rookie stretched himself, held his own in a wheelhouse at the pro level.

Does Castle have the same role(s) as in college?

One thing overlooked a lot is something I touched on earlier and confirmed in the video above, which is Castle's non-stat intangibles, things like presence on the locker room, how he approaches practices and games and pressure situations and getting some tough love. Spurs love his demeanour, as Goldsberry discussed. I think stats have their place but there seems to be a bit setting up too rigid a crystal ball path in using them.

I'm happy to return to this class each year and see how they progress, I just don't think it's as clear a prognostication as some would have it be. There's a reason why people are talking a certain excited way about Castle beyond stats and when there are enough good voices saying it, that carries some weight.

Post #167 » by **G R E Y** » Sun Apr 13, 2025 4:18 am

tsherkin wrote:
G R E Y wrote:16 on 6-10, 2-5 from 3, 2-2FTs, 10 assists, 4 boards, 1 steal, 2TOs last night vs. Suns.

March: 19.5, 4.4 boards, 4.8 assists

April: 18.7, 6.7 boards, 7.7 assists

March: 54.6% TS
April (7 games): 57.4% TS (first month over 54.6%)

He has a couple of recent games shooting highly unsustainable percentages boosting his raw efficiency in that small volume in April, too.

Castle's definitely a guy I want to see over next year to see if I should care, but right now, he isn't stunning, and a little run at the end of the year isn't that titillating to me. For the Spurs' sake, I hope he finds a way to be good next year. Shooting wasn't his thing at UConn, but he's young and he is taking on a higher-usage role over the second half of the year, so we'll see if that can turn into something exciting for San Antonio.

I think basic to advanced stats, especially for rookies, are more of guideposts than set predictors. Of course if a guy comes in known for skillset A ie/shooting he'll be more efficient and project differently than another who is less known for A bit more for skills B or C ie/Castle getting to the FT line well. And outside of a particular wheelhouse, how has each rookie stretched himself, held his own in a wheelhouse at the pro level.

Does Castle have the same role(s) as in college?

One thing overlooked a lot is something I touched on earlier and confirmed in the video above, which is Castle's non-stat intangibles, things like presence on the locker room, how he approaches practices and games and pressure situations and getting some tough love. Spurs love his demeanour, as Goldsberry discussed. I think stats have their place but there seems to be a bit setting up too rigid a crystal ball path in using them.

I'm happy to return to this class each year and see how they progress, I just don't think it's as clear a prognostication as some would have it be. There's a reason why people are talking a certain excited way about Castle beyond stats and when there are enough good voices saying it, that carries some weight.

Post #168 » by **tsherkin** » Sun Apr 13, 2025 10:30 am

G R E Y wrote:[
I think basic to advanced stats, especially for rookies, are more of guideposts than set predictors.

To some extent, sure. But when I look at a guy who was described as not a good shooter before the draft, and he's not a good shooter in his rookie season, then that's a point of concern for me with that player. Inefficiency in a rookie in a volume scoring role is a thing; it happened to Lebron and KD. But Castle hasn't been a volume scorer most of the year, he's just been profoundly bad away from the rim, and below average from the RA. So that's another point of concern, though again, that's why I said I want to see how next year goes.

One thing overlooked a lot is something I touched on earlier and confirmed in the video above, which is Castle's non-stat intangibles, things like presence on the locker room, how he approaches practices and games and pressure situations and getting some tough love. Spurs love his demeanour, as Goldsberry discussed. I think stats have their place but there seems to be a bit setting up too rigid a crystal ball path in using them.

I'm happy to return to this class each year and see how they progress, I just don't think it's as clear a prognostication as some would have it be. There's a reason why people are talking a certain excited way about Castle beyond stats and when there are enough good voices saying it, that carries some weight.

Well, like I said, Castle's definitely a guy I want to see over next year. It's not a rookie campaign which excites me at all, but weirder things have happened in the first to second year jump. And he's 20, which as I noted, does tend to change the developmental arc compared to earlier eras in the NBA. But yeah, right now, he's just an inefficient rookie who can't shoot who has a good attitude. Dude's got decent athleticism and can draw a foul, but that was a pretty ugly rookie campaign from a scoring standpoint. What I'm looking for is more the path forwards, right? I'm not seeing it at the moment. The ability to draw fouls is nice, but if it comes in the absence of other scoring tools like shooting, then I start to cool on a player's potential pretty quickly. Shooting isn't easy to develop in the NBA; it's one of those skills which you generally have or don't, outside of corner 3pt shooting.

Again, though, we both agree that next year will be far more telling than this season. If he's going to be much of anything, it'll start to happen in his first couple of seasons with significant leaps from year to year. So the starting point may be unpleasant, but it's no guarantee he'll stay that way.

We shall see. It'd be nice for the Spurs if Castle developed into something especially interesting alongside Wemby. That would be a proper foundation, for sure.

Post #169 » by **bisme37** » Sun Apr 13, 2025 4:28 pm

We're going to have a million stickied threads for the playoff and play-in matchups by the end of the day, so I am doing some spring cleaning and un-sticking other threads to prepare. This thread will of course remain open and active though, so feel free to still post in it.

AFM · Post #170 » by **AFM** » Sun Apr 13, 2025 7:31 pm

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Castle Black · Post #171 » by **Castle Black** » Mon Apr 14, 2025 12:22 am

ROY him.

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Post #172 » by **G R E Y** » Mon Apr 14, 2025 5:06 am

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Post #173 » by **G R E Y** » Mon Apr 14, 2025 3:22 pm

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FarBeyondDriven · Post #174 » by **FarBeyondDriven** » Tue Apr 15, 2025 5:23 pm

42 (unless I'm missing someone) rookies started at least a game this season. For comparison, 27 rookies started a game last season. Not bad for the weakest draft class in history huh?