Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread)

[Optms]

So Murray and Gordon both scored 50 points this season. That has to be taken into consideration when thinking about the MVP race.

So Luka is out of the convo based on that logic because Reaves is having a better year than Murray or Gordon?

Luka is in the convo because no one expect for the Lakers to be this good, even with the amount of injuries they've had. Luka doesn't need injury excuses to have the Lakers 2nd in the West. He's great. Just a shame Shai has been better.

[RB34]

How good is Jokic's playmaking? I often read here that Jokic is the best playmaker in the NBA, a GOAT level playmaker who elevates his teammates like no other player but today I've noticed that MPJ went from averaging 17 / 18 ppg in Denver to 25 ppg this season.

6 more points taking 5 more shots and shooting a lower percentage on one of the worst teams in the league.

What an indictment on Joker.

Edit: MPJ also has higher usage than Jokic

He has basically the same ts % as last year with 61.6 % (61.7 ts % last year), despite scoring 7.1 more points a game. That's a very impressive thing to achieve, especially on a terrible team like the Nets.
To score more, you need to take more shots, shocking. He also gets more free throws and shoots them at a higher %, making his efficiency just the same as playing with Jokic last year.

No need to stupidify yourself to "protect" Jokic.

Protect Jokic from what? The idea that he’s a terrible playmaker because MPJ scores more points going from a 4th option to a 1st option? There’s plenty of stats posted in this thread which show how Jokic elevates the people he plays with.

No need to worry about stupidification, you’ve done that enough for the rest of us. Read your own post.

[f4p]

SGA is clearly ahead and that has nothing to do with Joker.

OKC is just too dominant with SGA leading the way.

Shai is incredible but like literally everyone in OKCs top 10 has a +15 on court. And while Shai stands out in on/off, there's someone even crazier. Caruso currently has a +30 on and +20 on/off. I don't think I've ever seen a +30 on for anything beyond like 5 minutes.


They are just a deep and perfect team and Shai fits the rest of the team/the rest of the team fits Shai perfectly. Sports is a small sample size business where only so many rosters can get constructed around so many people and Shai has lucked out and OKC has lucked out to get Shai but I don't think that makes him better than jokic, at least until he doesn't fall off in the playoffs.

People called me crazy last year for saying they would win 4+ titles but that's conservative if they don't get hurt. We've never had the GOAT defense with an S tier offensive talent like Shai with tons of assets to get better. They'll have to try their best to win fewer than 4 titles.

[f4p]

Efficiency was never his aim but he excellent scoring efficiency throughout his prime. 106 TS+ from 01-09 , and a career scoring efficiency mark (+1.9 ) that's slightly worse than Larry Bird's (+2.7). The rest of your post is just regurgitating a bunch of nonsense narratives.

I stand by my comment, I never said Kobe wasn't effecient, I even think he was one of the best shot makers in history, I still say, and don't think it's controversial, that Kobe never optimized his shot diet and took a lot of difficult shots.
Now, for your TS+, absolutely, Kobe was effecient scorer, but he shot less than 107+ for all of his 1st option career, compare that to who I do think SGA resembles in shot diet and approach,

Nobody cares about your arbitrary standards. He was at 106 TS+ from 01-09, which is very good scoring efficiency, and then he was at 107 TS+ in the 2010 postseason. Basically his scoring efficiency was consistently excellent over his ten year prime outside of the 2010 RS where he was riddled with injuries (and even then he was above average). As far Shai, the man is 27 years old and hasn't had a single postseason where his relative TS topped +0.5.

A +1 rTS or above is totally foreign territory to Shai when it actually matters lol.

In fact, let's look at the career postseason scoring numbers
for Shai and Kobe.

Kobe: 29.8 inflation adjusted pts per 75/+2.7 relative TS
Shai: 25.7 inflation adjusted pts per 75/+0.5 relative TS

Not even close lol. And that's with Kobe having a faaaaaaaaaar greater sample size.

*postseason efficiency adjusted for opponent defense

Keep bragging about those regular season stats tho.

As much as Kobe gets elevated due to rangz, Shai is getting there as well. Kobe was actually quite playoff resilient while Shai would be near the bottom of such a list based on the last 2 years.

[f4p]

Well, I care about my standards, and Kobe wasn't "excellent" and 110+ TS+ is a tier above 104-107 range of TS+




Yeah, totally agree, SGA effeciency tanks in the post season in his 2 runs, he hasn't been effecient post season player, and he was carried by his teams insane defense and some great shooting performances, for him to be considered the great scorer he shows he is in the RS, he needs to start delivering in the post season.

See? When it comes to scoring effeciency, numbers can be pretty convincing, regardless of who our favourite player is.

Nah. A 106 TS+ is excellent/very good, and not something that Kobe would have put up for a decade if his shot "diet" was anywhere near as bad as you're trying to portray. Nice hyperbole tho. Call me when Shai stops seeing his scoring efficiency fall a cliff in the postseason.

Almost everybodys ts % drops in the postseason though. He went from 63.6 ts % in the reg season in 23-24 to 58.2 ts % in 10 games in the postseason. Hardly falling of a cliff.

I am sure with his improved game and three ball this season, he will shut up that rude mouth of yours. Let's see if you're still barking as proudly come may, or going missing.

Shai's dropoff is significant. Nearing a -6% delta is on the upper end of dropoffs. Especially since he then replicated it the very next season. While losing as a 1 seed in 2024 and nearly losing to very mid teams when his team had the highest net rating of all time. While sporting playoff on/offs of basically 0 after great numbers in the regular season. Shai's last 2 seasons are the upper end of playoff dropper territory.

[AleksandarN]

So Murray and Gordon both scored 50 points this season. That has to be taken into consideration when thinking about the MVP race.

So Luka is out of the convo based on that logic because Reaves is having a better year than Murray or Gordon?

Luka is in the convo because no one expect for the Lakers to be this good, even with the amount of injuries they've had. Luka doesn't need injury excuses to have the Lakers 2nd in the West. He's great. Just a shame Shai has been better.

Reaves contributed as much if not more than Luka has to how Lakers are this good. Come on now think bro b

[CobraCommander]

So Luka is out of the convo based on that logic because Reaves is having a better year than Murray or Gordon?

Luka is in the convo because no one expect for the Lakers to be this good, even with the amount of injuries they've had. Luka doesn't need injury excuses to have the Lakers 2nd in the West. He's great. Just a shame Shai has been better.

Reaves contributed as much if not more than Luka has to how Lakers are this good. Come on now think bro b

...opppss

[CobraCommander]

So Luka is out of the convo based on that logic because Reaves is having a better year than Murray or Gordon?

Luka is in the convo because no one expect for the Lakers to be this good, even with the amount of injuries they've had. Luka doesn't need injury excuses to have the Lakers 2nd in the West. He's great. Just a shame Shai has been better.

Reaves contributed as much if not more than Luka has to how Lakers are this good. Come on now think bro b

AR has been better than Gordon and Murray this year...and AR has been carrying the lakers more than Luka or Lebron...and definitely AR has contributed to more to the lakers winning than Gordon and Murray have to winning for the lakers than gordon and Murray for the Nuggets....

but that still doesn't mean Luka isn't a MVP candidate....because we didnt blame MJ for having Pippen and Rodman, we didnt blame Lebron for Bosh and Wade so why should we blame Luka for AR and Lebron...? it doesn't make sense... Luka is 3rd in the MVP or 4th at worst since Wemby appears to be out of it.

but the real hot take is AR should be in the MVP conversation. this man is really playing out of his mind!

[Mavrelous]

No, Luka isn't in it because he is playing worse than SGA/Jokic, no one has played at this level I'd argue, including SGA and Jokic themselves.

[Mavrelous]

The claim about Jokic not having an elite supporting cast is based on flawed understanding of on/off stats.
Jokic is the most effective offensive force and will likely finish top 10 all time, but his success is heavily dependant on his supporting cast, like all grewt players, and w/o them his team has performed demonstrabely worse and was an afterthought in contender discussions.

Nobody says Murray or AG suck. Nobody.

But they are also injury prone players. MPJ was effective as a scorer but useless in every other facet. Braun is improving but is a spotty outside shooter. Watson is still developing. Will Barton was a mess. Paul Millsap was old and immobile. KCP was good, but became too expensive.

Jokic isn’t the first great player to have struggles with a reliable cast around him but it’s pronounced because these guys are rarely healthy at the same time or consistent enough. We saw what a healthy, clicking Denver team looked like in 2023. They just haven’t been able to replicate those results.

No, nobody said they sucked here is what a lot of people said every year since 2021:
Jokic has very high on/off, the team is bad w/o him, this means he has a worse supporting cast than player X, thus, he is more valuable to his team acheivements than player X.
This is asinine claim and flawed thinking, that ignores, roster build, rotations and roles within the team.
There is way more evidence on record that high on/off of offensive engine is driven by better cast than high on/off driven by worse supporting cast.

[kazyv]

The claim about Jokic not having an elite supporting cast is based on flawed understanding of on/off stats.
Jokic is the most effective offensive force and will likely finish top 10 all time, but his success is heavily dependant on his supporting cast, like all grewt players, and w/o them his team has performed demonstrabely worse and was an afterthought in contender discussions.

Nobody says Murray or AG suck. Nobody.

But they are also injury prone players. MPJ was effective as a scorer but useless in every other facet. Braun is improving but is a spotty outside shooter. Watson is still developing. Will Barton was a mess. Paul Millsap was old and immobile. KCP was good, but became too expensive.

Jokic isn’t the first great player to have struggles with a reliable cast around him but it’s pronounced because these guys are rarely healthy at the same time or consistent enough. We saw what a healthy, clicking Denver team looked like in 2023. They just haven’t been able to replicate those results.

No, nobody said they sucked here is what a lot of people said every year since 2021:
Jokic has very high on/off, the team is bad w/o him, this means he has a worse supporting cast than player X, thus, he is more valuable to his team acheivements than player X.
This is asinine claim and flawed thinking, that ignores, roster build, rotations and roles within the team.
There is way more evidence on record that high on/off of offensive engine is driven by better cast than high on/off driven by worse supporting cast.

that doesn't seem right on its face. maybe some people took the bait when haters were attacking jokic. but wouldn't the original logical progression be:

• hey, jokic has high (historical) on/off stats, he's the mvp
• no, jokic just benefits from lineups, i.e. plays with "good" guys and doesn't plan with the dregs who can't keep up with the starter production
• at that point a person might actually try to argue that his "good" guys aren't that good, especially when they don't play with jokic etc and all the other not very good arguments which you bring up

so while some of those arguments may not be great etc, they all fundamentally stem from people doubting stats and trying to come up with ways to discredit them.

[Mavrelous]

that doesn't seem right on its face. maybe some people took the bait when haters were attacking jokic. but wouldn't the original logical progression be:

• hey, jokic has high (historical) on/off stats, he's the mvp
• no, jokic just benefits from lineups, i.e. plays with "good" guys and doesn't plan with the dregs who can't keep up with the starter production
• at that point a person might actually try to argue that his "good" guys aren't that good, especially when they don't play with jokic etc and all the other not very good arguments which you bring up

so while some of those arguments may not be great etc, they all fundamentally stem from people doubting stats and trying to come up with ways to discredit them.

I don't think anyone discredited Jokic, that would be stupid, it takes an all time great to do what he does, not someone that should ever be taken seriously.

[MMyhre]

Nah. A 106 TS+ is excellent/very good, and not something that Kobe would have put up for a decade if his shot "diet" was anywhere near as bad as you're trying to portray. Nice hyperbole tho. Call me when Shai stops seeing his scoring efficiency fall a cliff in the postseason.

Almost everybodys ts % drops in the postseason though. He went from 63.6 ts % in the reg season in 23-24 to 58.2 ts % in 10 games in the postseason. Hardly falling of a cliff.

I am sure with his improved game and three ball this season, he will shut up that rude mouth of yours. Let's see if you're still barking as proudly come may, or going missing.

Shai's dropoff is significant. Nearing a -6% delta is on the upper end of dropoffs. Especially since he then replicated it the very next season. While losing as a 1 seed in 2024 and nearly losing to very mid teams when his team had the highest net rating of all time. While sporting playoff on/offs of basically 0 after great numbers in the regular season. Shai's last 2 seasons are the upper end of playoff dropper territory.

No way 2024 was upper end playoff dropper, you are full of shaite mate. Compare it to other runs and post the numbers. It's not going to be close to upper end.

[MMyhre]

6 more points taking 5 more shots and shooting a lower percentage on one of the worst teams in the league.

What an indictment on Joker.

Edit: MPJ also has higher usage than Jokic

He has basically the same ts % as last year with 61.6 % (61.7 ts % last year), despite scoring 7.1 more points a game. That's a very impressive thing to achieve, especially on a terrible team like the Nets.
To score more, you need to take more shots, shocking. He also gets more free throws and shoots them at a higher %, making his efficiency just the same as playing with Jokic last year.

No need to stupidify yourself to "protect" Jokic.

Protect Jokic from what? The idea that he’s a terrible playmaker because MPJ scores more points going from a 4th option to a 1st option? There’s plenty of stats posted in this thread which show how Jokic elevates the people he plays with.

No need to worry about stupidification, you’ve done that enough for the rest of us. Read your own post.

You tried to be dishonest by not using true shooting % to make MPJ's scoring look worse. He scores way more points at exactly the same efficiency as with Jokic.
Again, you can't be honest and objective, so you are worthless to argue with.

[MMyhre]

Nah. A 106 TS+ is excellent/very good, and not something that Kobe would have put up for a decade if his shot "diet" was anywhere near as bad as you're trying to portray. Nice hyperbole tho. Call me when Shai stops seeing his scoring efficiency fall a cliff in the postseason.

Almost everybodys ts % drops in the postseason though. He went from 63.6 ts % in the reg season in 23-24 to 58.2 ts % in 10 games in the postseason. Hardly falling of a cliff.

I am sure with his improved game and three ball this season, he will shut up that rude mouth of yours. Let's see if you're still barking as proudly come may, or going missing.

No they don't. Shai falls off a cliff. Plenty of greats have maintained their numbers in the postseason or even improved.

Last season Shai went from being a +6 rTS in the RS to a measly +0.5 in the postseason (opponent -adjusted). We see something similar in 2024. He also anchored a pathetic +1.3 relative offensive rating but luckily the team defense was still good enough to win it all.

I'll be here no matter happens, buddy. It's not that serious.

You will disappear like the rest of the net trolls.
Looking at just the offensive rating without taking into context how they had no other creation, no efficient scorers and bad 3pt shooting as a team is just being biased and silly.

Watch his ts % go up to 60+ these playoffs as all of those factors + himself has improved.
Also very little talk about the scoring duel he comfortably beat Luka at in 24.

You're going on my foe list, you're a lil too nasty.
See you again in may, if you haven't ran away by then.

[Primedeion]

Almost everybodys ts % drops in the postseason though. He went from 63.6 ts % in the reg season in 23-24 to 58.2 ts % in 10 games in the postseason. Hardly falling of a cliff.

I am sure with his improved game and three ball this season, he will shut up that rude mouth of yours. Let's see if you're still barking as proudly come may, or going missing.

No they don't. Shai falls off a cliff. Plenty of greats have maintained their numbers in the postseason or even improved.

Last season Shai went from being a +6 rTS in the RS to a measly +0.5 in the postseason (opponent -adjusted). We see something similar in 2024. He also anchored a pathetic +1.3 relative offensive rating but luckily the team defense was still good enough to win it all.

I'll be here no matter happens, buddy. It's not that serious.

You will disappear like the rest of the net trolls.
Looking at just the offensive rating without taking into context how they had no other creation, no efficient scorers and bad 3pt shooting as a team is just being biased and silly.

Watch his ts % go up to 60+ these playoffs as all of those factors + himself has improved.
Also very little talk about the scoring duel he comfortably beat Luka at in 24.

You're going on my foe list, you're a lil too nasty.
See you again in may, if you haven't ran away by then.

Cute excuses, but the reality is that his scoring consistently falls off a cliff when it really matters. I'll see ya, buddy.

[Chokic]

Mvp will come down to Sga and Jokic again. If okc is on pace to break golden state 73-9 record sga is a lock to win mvp. AR is playing at such a ridiculous level theres not much disparity between he and luka.

[bbms]

Nah. A 106 TS+ is excellent/very good, and not something that Kobe would have put up for a decade if his shot "diet" was anywhere near as bad as you're trying to portray. Nice hyperbole tho. Call me when Shai stops seeing his scoring efficiency fall a cliff in the postseason.

Almost everybodys ts % drops in the postseason though. He went from 63.6 ts % in the reg season in 23-24 to 58.2 ts % in 10 games in the postseason. Hardly falling of a cliff.

I am sure with his improved game and three ball this season, he will shut up that rude mouth of yours. Let's see if you're still barking as proudly come may, or going missing.

Shai's dropoff is significant. Nearing a -6% delta is on the upper end of dropoffs. Especially since he then replicated it the very next season. While losing as a 1 seed in 2024 and nearly losing to very mid teams when his team had the highest net rating of all time. While sporting playoff on/offs of basically 0 after great numbers in the regular season. Shai's last 2 seasons are the upper end of playoff dropper territory.

which is data heavily impacted by performances in first round in sweeps. sample size issues.

also there is a couple of first times vs playoffs tactical gimmicks. okc does look like plays on autopilot in playoffs environment sometimes, i was critical of that all post season, and not react to those gimmicks. it's not like he has choked - he has some dominating samples on crunch time and high pressure games.

i'm confident he'll regress to the mean at least

[Mavrelous]

This is ATG scoring season by SGA, but Reaves is scoring even better at very similar volume

[MoneyTalks41890]

Just beautiful basketball.

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