2014-2015 NBA MVP Discussion

[Shock Defeat]

Curry has a bigger impact on the Warriors than Harden has on the Rockets.

The warriors are 17 points better with Curry on the court than when he sits.

The rockets are 11 points better with Harden on the court than when he sits.

Curry also easily leads in every adjusted +/- such as RPM.

The rockets are winning games based heavily on their defense. A defense that becomes 5 points better when Harden takes a seat on the bench.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2015/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2015/

Actually if you look at Curry's teammates compared to Harden you'll see that the Warriors have multiple players with a +/- of double figures. Green with a plus 14, Klay plus 11, Bogut plus 10...

Look at the guys on Houston. Relatively speaking, those numbers say Harden is more valuable than Curry.

[Wonderllama]

Curry needs a few more "I should be the MVP" type games. Scoring 60 against a top contender would help.

I can't believe the Warriors/Rockets series is already over. They should have saved one for February or March.

[Illmatic12]

I'm a huge fan of Curry's game, but he simply isn't capable of doing what Harden is doing by carrying that subpar roster of mediocre/terrible offensive players (including Dwight, when he was active)

Harden is the 2015 MVP imo, whether it actually works out to him getting the award I guess would depend on how GSW and the Rockets finish the season.

[Dubeta]

curry winning mvp will just prove how useless the award has become. Derrick rose mvp 2.0.

[Illmatic12]

I'm a huge fan of Curry's game, but he simply isn't capable of doing what Harden is doing by carrying that subpar roster of mediocre/terrible offensive players (including Dwight, when he was active)

Harden is the 2015 MVP imo, whether it actually works out to him getting the award I guess would depend on how GSW and the Rockets finish the season.

Any analysis or general opinions to back that thought up? I'd argue he could, but since it's your statement I'd like to hear your take on it if you have one.

Doesn't get to the line enough and thus cannot produce the volume of offense Harden does on an nightly basis.

[Rasheeed!!!]

curry winning mvp will just prove how useless the award has become. Derrick rose mvp 2.0.

yeah because a guy averaging 23.6ppg, 4.7rpg. 7apg & 2.1spg on the best team in the West (by a significant margin over nearest MVP competitor) is not justifiable at all.

[CnG]

Curry as a PG averages 2 points less than Harden per36. Harden's main role is to score and has a higher USG%. Any notion that he (Steph) cannot score to carry a team is purely wrong.

I have no qualms with Harden getting MVP if the Rockets finish top 3. It'd be an impressive feat to lead his team to that finish given the toughness of the West. That being said, people need to abandon that argument that Curry has "too much help" with his team is winning a league best 82% of their games and his best two teammates being 4th year Klay Thompson and 3rd year Draymond Green. It really is laughable when you put it into context.

[gmoney411]

still Curry then Harden... now if Harden passes curry in the standings it will be a different story.

That's such a silly requirement. At the moment Harden is playing at a higher level than Curry and his team is winning at a high rate.

harden has lost GSW every time this year. So no its not.

Curry's team beating Harden's team doesn't mean that Curry is playing at a higher level. On top of that, Harden and Curry don't even hold each other during those games.

[O_6]

Curry ----- .577 eFG% --- .265 FTr --- .624 TS%
Harden --- .530 eFG% --- .509 FTr --- .615 TS%

This is a really tough race.

- Curry is turning a 40 win team into a 60+ win team
- Harden is turning a 30 win team into a 50+ win team.

I've gone back and forth on this all-season. A week ago, I would've said Curry. Today I'd go with Harden. He just means so much to that Rockets team.

I'm a rate stats > volume stats guy, but I feel like PPG is underrating Harden because so many of the other top scorers have missed a bunch of games. Check out the NBA Points Leaderboard.

Player ----- Points
Harden ---- 1442
Curry ------ 1178
Griffin ----- 1149
Davis ------- 1129
Lillard ------ 1123
James ------ 1118

Harden has a 264 point edge over Curry. Curry has a 265 point edge over Chris Bosh (#24 on list).

Just think about that. The difference between #1 and #2 in terms of points is as big as the difference between #2 and #24. Harden might not be blowing the league out of the water in terms of PPG, but he sure as hell is when we're talking about total points. And total stats definitely mean something when we're talking about total value to a team.

Harden is everything for Houston. He has become such a deadly offensive player this year. That vicious step-back jumper has really allowed him to take his game to the next level. It's such a perfect counter move for him because of how he penetrates. Defenders are always worried about him getting to the rim so he tends to create so much open space on that step back. And even if he doesn't have a lot of space he'll still drill it in your face. The Harden stepback looks like it's going to be a signature shot in this league for years.

I'd personally vote Harden for MVP right now, but I feel like Curry is still the favorite to win the award because of his team performance.

I still believe Curry is the slightly "better" player because his offensive game is less reliant on outside influences like refs. Harden's FTr really boosts his TS% and gives him comparable efficiency to Curry. But Curry is a more efficient scorer in terms of on Field Goal shooting, as his .047 edge in eFG% shows. I think stylistically, Curry is harder to stop than Harden for these reasons. There's really no answer to Curry besides hope his jumper is off. Harden's jumper is a bit streaky, although he's clearly on fire with it recently. Harden still needs to prove it in the playoffs, and that plays a role in why I think Curry is a little better right now. But the MVP is a regular season award and Harden has the tiny edge as of today imo.

The interesting part about this year's MVP race is that you could argue that Harden and Curry aren't even among the 4 best players in the game.

LeBron (reigning King)
Davis (future King)
Durant (defending MVP)
Westbrook (crazy mofo)

The top 3 guys are clearly better than Curry/Harden imo. But injuries and team performance have really limited the MVP love these guys can get. Russ is roughly on the same level as Curry/Harden but he's limited as an MVP candidate for the same reasons as the other 3. I think that's why there's such a weird feel to the MVP race this year, because usually the MVP = Best Player.

[TaylorMonkey]

Curry has a bigger impact on the Warriors than Harden has on the Rockets.

The warriors are 17 points better with Curry on the court than when he sits.

The rockets are 11 points better with Harden on the court than when he sits.

Curry also easily leads in every adjusted +/- such as RPM.

The rockets are winning games based heavily on their defense. A defense that becomes 5 points better when Harden takes a seat on the bench.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2015/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2015/

Actually if you look at Curry's teammates compared to Harden you'll see that the Warriors have multiple players with a +/- of double figures. Green with a plus 14, Klay plus 11, Bogut plus 10...

Look at the guys on Houston. Relatively speaking, those numbers say Harden is more valuable than Curry.

Those numbers actually favor Curry. Not Harden. Curry juices the team offense because he unselfishly focuses on playmaking and getting other guys shots in addition to his shooting. The other guys scoring is a testament to Curry's team impact as a point guard and floor general, and is completely consistent with the advanced metrics.

[Illmatic12]

Any analysis or general opinions to back that thought up? I'd argue he could, but since it's your statement I'd like to hear your take on it if you have one.

Doesn't get to the line enough and thus cannot produce the volume of offense Harden does on an nightly basis.

He "can't produce Harden's volume of offense" because he goes to the line less? Seems like a pretty silly statement my dude. Offense is a vast, multi-faceted system. A single player getting to the stripe more often than another is one small faction of it.

Steph Curry is leading GSWs offensive system, Harden IS the offensive system on the Rockets.

No disrespect to Curry, who is great and deserving as well, but imo he isn't carrying his team like Harden is and Houston is doing much better than most would expect given their roster/injuries..

[O_6]

I'd actually say the On/Off numbers favor Harden. Check out the On/Off ORtg among the top 7 players on both teams in terms of Minutes played.

Player ------- ORtg Diff
Curry ---------- +13.6
Green --------- +7.7
Klay ----------- +9.1

Barnes -------- +1.4
Iggy ----------- -2.4
Speights ------ +1.2
Bogut --------- +2.4

Player ------- ORtg Diff
Harden -------- +16.3
Ariza ---------- -1.4
Motiejunas --- +1.4

Beverley ------ +1.4
Terry ---------- -3.3
Howard ------- +1.6
Papa ---------- -7.2

Whereas Golden State's offense seems to be led by Curry, Houston's offense IS James Harden.

When he sits the Rockets have a 94.9 ORtg, which is Sixers level AKA historically awful. The Rockets desperately need a 2nd perimeter creator on their team.

[Doctor MJ]

So what I'm noticing:

The argument for Harden seems remarkably closely tied to +- thinking, both the people using raw numbers and in the impact-oriented narrative. But I say remarkable not because people like the approach but because we have more robust stats to use if you like that approach and I'm not aware of any that doesn't rate Curry ahead of Harden.

So far as I can see, the issue isn't that people overrate Harden they just drastically underrate Curry.

Folks Curry has some good players around him but they don't come close to explaining away how amazing the Warriors have been with Curry... And folks you KNOW this. The Warriors have been ultra-dominant well beyond what any of us predicted. Currys improvement is a big part of this

I think it's also clear people are using Cuurys low MPG against him and folks that's simply flawed thinking. You should never be penalizing a guy for playing well enough that his team's win in blowouts.




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[stayeduptolate]

So what I'm noticing:

The argument for Harden seems remarkably closely tied to +- thinking, both the people using raw numbers and in the impact-oriented narrative. But I say remarkable not because people like the approach but because we have more robust stats to use if you like that approach and I'm not aware of any that doesn't rate Curry ahead of Harden.

So far as I can see, the issue isn't that people overrate Harden they just drastically underrate Curry.

Folks Curry has some good players around him but they don't come close to explaining away how amazing the Warriors have been with Curry... And folks you KNOW this. The Warriors have been ultra-dominant well beyond what any of us predicted. Currys improvement is a big part of this

I think it's also clear people are using Cuurys low MPG against him and folks that's simply flawed thinking. You should never be penalizing a guy for playing well enough that his team's win in blowouts.




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This^^ just because Curry plays 32 MIN and Harden plays 36-40 MIN should not hurt curry.

[Doctor MJ]

Another note, I saw an analysis that said Curry was making a 40 win team win 60 and Harden was making a 30 win 50, and implying this made it a tough call.

I understand this was meant to be a ballpark statement - not to be taken as literally true - but even if the numbers were right I fundamentally object to the premise.

it is both harder and more lucrative to be able to lift a good team by X wins than to lift a bad team a similar amount. one can do the latter oftentimes with approaches that don't actually scale to actual team greatness. Doing the former is the real deal. It's what teams are truly trying to get when they look for the ideal franchise player.

so yeah as a guy who has been a huge Harden guy from his time in OKC, as much as I like him, much as I think his BBIQ surpasses Currys, Curr y to me is clearly more accomplished right now.

oh and also those connecting Curry to Rose to make a case for Harden are being absurd. curry is vastly superior to Rose as a candidate. He's not peak LeBron quality obviously but neither is Harden or anyone else right now


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[O_6]

Doc, I'm not some blind raw On/Off follower. I know it's limitations and I know there are much better ways to measure offensive impact through advanced metrics. But I was responding to someone who was trying to use raw On/Off as a pro-Curry point, I just took it the other way and showed how it could be a plus for Harden.

Rarely is a team's offense completely tied into one player like it is with the Rockets this year. And the raw On/Off just backs it up which is why I mentioned it. Just look at that post I made, Harden has a +16 ORtg and there's not a single teammate of his who played significant minutes who has more than a +1.5 ORtg difference when it comes to On/Off. When the On/Off is THAT obvious, it absolutely belongs in the discussion.

What Harden is doing this year with Bev/Ariza/oldmanTerry as his backcourt support is incredible. He IS his team's offense in a way that we haven't seen since first term Cleveland LeBron.

Also, the 40W-to-60W Curry and 30W-to-50W Harden comment was definitely a ballpark statement.

You're absolutely right that raising a 40 win team to 60 wins is more impressive than raising a 30 win team to a 50 win team. Those extra wins from 50-60 have huge value in "Championship Probability". So even though both raised their teams win totals by 20, the 20 is more impressive the higher the final win total.

But let's say Harden raised his teams raw win total by more? Let's say 25 vs. 20 instead of 20 vs. 20. Would you still give the edge to Curry because his team had the higher record?

[rcontador]

But let's say Harden raised his teams raw win total by more? Let's say 25 vs. 20 instead of 20 vs. 20. Would you still give the edge to Curry because his team had the higher record?

The Rockets are a +4 SRS team, which is pretty good. The Warriors are a +10.5 SRS team, which is all-time great.

The whole idea that there's a real contest here is nonsense; Curry and Harden have the same damn production but Curry's team is 10x better. There is no reasonable argument for giving MVP to Harden.

And voters know that. Which is why Curry is going to win in May.

[oldschooled]

Not a fan of Harden's game. But boy is he playing out of his mind this year. He also lessen his flop antics and just play straight up. Not the most likable guy but if the Rockets finish 3rd and Harden continues his play like this, you gotta give him the MVP. Too bad his team won't do anything in the playoffs though.

[olive_triangurl]

This^^ just because Curry plays 32 MIN and Harden plays 36-40 MIN should not hurt curry.

Why shouldn't it hurt Curry?

[olive_triangurl]

Not a fan of Harden's game. But boy is he playing out of his mind this year. He also lessen his flop antics and just play straight up. Not the most likable guy but if the Rockets finish 3rd and Harden continues his play like this, you gotta give him the MVP. Too bad his team won't do anything in the playoffs though.

In the playoffs I think Houston has a better chance of beating San Antonio than Golden State has.
I don't even believe Golden State can beat San Antonio in the playoffs.