NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread)

[CIN-C-STAR]

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Definitely would be the first 4 players on my MVP list without even knowing this.
Always thought it a bit strange that per game averages tend to dominate discussions on who is having the best season, instead of just looking at season totals like here.

[Jaqua92]

Yeah, Giannis, Jokic and Luka are the 3 best scorers in the NBA.

Then you got KD, (ATM) Embiid and SGA.

You could include Embiid in tier 1, but he's far too dependent on free throw shooting. With an equal free throw rate, Embiid has a MUCH bigger PPG and effeciency drop off compared to the others, who don't dip effeciency at all

[blueNorange]

jalen brunson should be a dark horse favorite

[CptCrunch]

No longer a race. Congrats Jokic to his '4th' MVP.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

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All four have had MVP caliber seasons so far. Hard to distinguish between them tbh.

[Eyeamok]

So Embiid will probably need to play in 31 of the final 33 or 34 games to be eligible? That is unlikely, but it is possible.

Embiid is done....for this season.

[Wolfgang630]

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[KGtabake]

Ben Gordon...lol

[Bob8]

You're saying, based on +/-, that Luka is not impactful player, results in last 3 years are saying, Mavs without him 39% wins and 58% with him.

I'm first to admit that Jokic is far the best player in Nba in last few years. I don't need +/- for that, I rather watch games. But I'm sure that nobody believes that Denver and Mavs have comparable roster, especially if we know that Kyrie has missed almost half of Mavs games.

I doubt that you watch Mavs games, because you wouldn't need to look at +/- to understand his impact. Not only that he averages near 35 triple double with 61.6 % TS, he's far the most doubled player in Nba, ( very strange that coaches are playing that kind of D on non impactful player ), which enables his teammates to have wide open shots or play 4/3. More or less every Mavs role player got paid because of that. THJ saved his career, the same goes with Dinwiddie, DFS made very solid career from from 0, Kleber got paid, Powell is making great money for what he brings, this year DJJ and Exum became alive, Lively looks great with Luka...Kyrie looks very good with Luka too, problem is that they played too little games together.

So, you're saying I'm saying he's not impactful, but what I'm really saying is he's just not impactful like what we expect from MVP level players.

You acknowledge he's not up there with Jokic, and so frankly that should make it not too-hard for us to come to terms. The rub is that Doncic name has been a regular one in MVP talks for several years now but he's never emerged as a guy impactful on the level that we'd expect to be a serious candidate for one of these sort of threads...and this is why I emphasize what I emphasize. If no one brought up Doncic in an MVP thread, I wouldn't bring him up here, but people do, so I do.

Re: "I don't need +/- stats, I watch games". Unless you can predict the stats based on watching the games, then you watching the games isn't giving you all the information.

Something I'll say: If in watching the games you can tell that Doncic is a lot less impactful than top players, then you're getting a lot more information than most from watching games, so good for you. For most of us who see Doncic play it's really a surprise when you realize he's not racking up +/- impact.

You have been using +/- as a loop for impact as by your logic +/- should be high for MVP level players, and Luka's +/- is low so he is not an MVP level player. You also kept ignoring other posters' response regarding his team situation - great sub for him and weak/injured front court. Regardless, the question is - has Luka been a MVP level player?
2023 Luka no playoff, he was voted #8; KG 2005 no playoff, he was voted #11;
Previous years he had #4, #5, and #6 voting and consecutive 1st team all-nba. That's what people agree on, he is an mvp level player but there were better choices given other players individual and team performance. Kobe 2006 was #4 and LeBron was #5 and #4 in 2007 and 2008.

Yes, 4 consecutive first all Nba teams in Nba apparently means nothing. ( Which is btw. a record for under 25 years old player, that only few other basketball legends share). People are just wrong about him or better yet, they're not educated enough about the only stats that should matter in basketball.

[Doctor MJ]

You wouldn't bring efficient second best Nba scorer and 3rd best in assists, who's second in 3s made, mostly pull ups and unassisted, in MVP thread?

Not necessarily, no.

Do you really believe that voters give a **** about +/-?

So this here is sticking with me because it makes me think we're just coming from two very different places that aren't going find any place to shake hands.

I'm talking about who is adding value.
You're asking me what I think about how voters think about a particular stat.
And you're doing this with language that needs to bleeped out, while we talk about a guy you're clearly emotionally invested in.

There's also this which I feel l need to respond to so as not to dodge:

I'll readily admit I don't have time to watch games like I used to and that's a disadvantage to my analysis.
And if you think that the fact alone that you watch more Luka than I do means that you must be right and I must be wrong, then well, obviously we don't have much more to discuss.

For the record, the important part to me is not that you be convinced that I'm right, but simply that you understand the structure of the concerns I'm trying to communicate.

[Gatorade Sax]

Ben Gordon...lol

The pieces of the puzzle coming together as to why this guys brain is now scrambled eggs.

Could hoop back in the day though.

[Doctor MJ]

You have been using +/- as a loop for impact as by your logic +/- should be high for MVP level players, and Luka's +/- is low so he is not an MVP level player. You also kept ignoring other posters' response regarding his team situation - great sub for him and weak/injured front court. Regardless, the question is - has Luka been a MVP level player?
2023 Luka no playoff, he was voted #8; KG 2005 no playoff, he was voted #11;
Previous years he had #4, #5, and #6 voting and consecutive 1st team all-nba. That's what people agree on, he is an mvp level player but there were better choices given other players individual and team performance. Kobe 2006 was #4 and LeBron was #5 and #4 in 2007 and 2008.

Uh, that's not a loop.

Strong MVP candidates have strong +/- indicators.
Luka does not have strong +/- indicators.
Therefore Luka is not a strong MVP candidate.

You can disagree with the initial rule, but there's nothing circular about those statements.

RE: ignoring team situation. I guess I haven't been clear enough here:

Concerns about Doncic's teammates not playing are concerns that make sense from a raw +/- perspective, but regressed +/- stats like RAPM don't get thrown off by them. There's really no reason to think that these concerns are throwing Doncic's data over the last 6 seasons off to the point that they would explain what we're seeing.

I tend to use raw +/- data in my posts rather than fancier stuff because I think it's more clear to more people what the data means, but I wouldn't be using it if it told a drastically different story than the fancy stuff.

Re: "has Luka been a MVP level player? Some voters said yes so he must be." I mean, those are just people's opinions. If it makes it feel better they agree with you, cool, but I have no more qualms about saying they're off-base than I do of saying you are.

To be clear though: I'm not saying that you shouldn't be allowed to talk about Luka here in this thread. It's just that since y'all are bringing up Luka, I feel compelled to point out the reasons why I don't see him in the same breath as the people in serious contention.

[dygaction]

You have been using +/- as a loop for impact as by your logic +/- should be high for MVP level players, and Luka's +/- is low so he is not an MVP level player. You also kept ignoring other posters' response regarding his team situation - great sub for him and weak/injured front court. Regardless, the question is - has Luka been a MVP level player?
2023 Luka no playoff, he was voted #8; KG 2005 no playoff, he was voted #11;
Previous years he had #4, #5, and #6 voting and consecutive 1st team all-nba. That's what people agree on, he is an mvp level player but there were better choices given other players individual and team performance. Kobe 2006 was #4 and LeBron was #5 and #4 in 2007 and 2008.

Uh, that's not a loop.

Strong MVP candidates have strong +/- indicators.
Luka does not have strong +/- indicators.
Therefore Luka is not a strong MVP candidate.

You can disagree with the initial rule, but there's nothing circular about those statements.

RE: ignoring team situation. I guess I haven't been clear enough here:

Concerns about Doncic's teammates not playing are concerns that make sense from a raw +/- perspective, but regressed +/- stats like RAPM don't get thrown off by them. There's really no reason to think that these concerns are throwing Doncic's data over the last 6 seasons off to the point that they would explain what we're seeing.

I tend to use raw +/- data in my posts rather than fancier stuff because I think it's more clear to more people what the data means, but I wouldn't be using it if it told a drastically different story than the fancy stuff.

Re: "has Luka been a MVP level player? Some voters said yes so he must be." I mean, those are just people's opinions. If it makes it feel better they agree with you, cool, but I have no more qualms about saying they're off-base than I do of saying you are.

To be clear though: I'm not saying that you shouldn't be allowed to talk about Luka here in this thread. It's just that since y'all are bringing up Luka, I feel compelled to point out the reasons why I don't see him in the same breath as the people in serious contention.

I dont think he is the strong MVP candidate because of the team record as of now nor think he has a real chance this year, but to say he is not mvp level player is just hate... at the end of the day, +/- is one of the many, like ppg, TS%, bpm and should not be the island to hang on as the last line defense

[Doctor MJ]

You have been using +/- as a loop for impact as by your logic +/- should be high for MVP level players, and Luka's +/- is low so he is not an MVP level player. You also kept ignoring other posters' response regarding his team situation - great sub for him and weak/injured front court. Regardless, the question is - has Luka been a MVP level player?
2023 Luka no playoff, he was voted #8; KG 2005 no playoff, he was voted #11;
Previous years he had #4, #5, and #6 voting and consecutive 1st team all-nba. That's what people agree on, he is an mvp level player but there were better choices given other players individual and team performance. Kobe 2006 was #4 and LeBron was #5 and #4 in 2007 and 2008.

Uh, that's not a loop.

Strong MVP candidates have strong +/- indicators.
Luka does not have strong +/- indicators.
Therefore Luka is not a strong MVP candidate.

You can disagree with the initial rule, but there's nothing circular about those statements.

RE: ignoring team situation. I guess I haven't been clear enough here:

Concerns about Doncic's teammates not playing are concerns that make sense from a raw +/- perspective, but regressed +/- stats like RAPM don't get thrown off by them. There's really no reason to think that these concerns are throwing Doncic's data over the last 6 seasons off to the point that they would explain what we're seeing.

I tend to use raw +/- data in my posts rather than fancier stuff because I think it's more clear to more people what the data means, but I wouldn't be using it if it told a drastically different story than the fancy stuff.

Re: "has Luka been a MVP level player? Some voters said yes so he must be." I mean, those are just people's opinions. If it makes it feel better they agree with you, cool, but I have no more qualms about saying they're off-base than I do of saying you are.

To be clear though: I'm not saying that you shouldn't be allowed to talk about Luka here in this thread. It's just that since y'all are bringing up Luka, I feel compelled to point out the reasons why I don't see him in the same breath as the people in serious contention.

I dont think he is the strong MVP candidate because of the team record as of now nor think he has a real chance this year, but to say he is not mvp level player is just hate... at the end of the day, +/- is one of the many, like ppg, TS%, bpm and should not be the island to hang on as the last line defense

+/- is an entirely different category of statistic than the rest you mention. It is a stat from the team scoreboard, the others are things we tally based on individual action. Both are valuable information, and both have their strengths and weaknesses, and that also means each much be handled with different concerns.

With +/- stats the thing we're super concerned with is noise in too-small sample size, but once we're beyond that and we've adjusted with regression with the teammates and opponents, it's not so much a question as whether the data tells us something significant, but specifically that something is.

And so the really valuable thing here is not so much for me to convince you I'm right that Luka isn't a strong MVP candidate based on the value of his play this year, but for you to explain what you think the explanation is.

But what I'm getting from folks right now are things that effectively look to critique the stat rather than evaluate the player. I don't actually mind having some discussion about the former - no stat is the end-all be-all - but when it makes us avoid actually talking what in the player's game might cause issues along these lines, it blocks the basketball conversation.

[dygaction]

Uh, that's not a loop.

Strong MVP candidates have strong +/- indicators.
Luka does not have strong +/- indicators.
Therefore Luka is not a strong MVP candidate.

You can disagree with the initial rule, but there's nothing circular about those statements.

RE: ignoring team situation. I guess I haven't been clear enough here:

Concerns about Doncic's teammates not playing are concerns that make sense from a raw +/- perspective, but regressed +/- stats like RAPM don't get thrown off by them. There's really no reason to think that these concerns are throwing Doncic's data over the last 6 seasons off to the point that they would explain what we're seeing.

I tend to use raw +/- data in my posts rather than fancier stuff because I think it's more clear to more people what the data means, but I wouldn't be using it if it told a drastically different story than the fancy stuff.

Re: "has Luka been a MVP level player? Some voters said yes so he must be." I mean, those are just people's opinions. If it makes it feel better they agree with you, cool, but I have no more qualms about saying they're off-base than I do of saying you are.

To be clear though: I'm not saying that you shouldn't be allowed to talk about Luka here in this thread. It's just that since y'all are bringing up Luka, I feel compelled to point out the reasons why I don't see him in the same breath as the people in serious contention.

I dont think he is the strong MVP candidate because of the team record as of now nor think he has a real chance this year, but to say he is not mvp level player is just hate... at the end of the day, +/- is one of the many, like ppg, TS%, bpm and should not be the island to hang on as the last line defense

+/- is an entirely different category of statistic than the rest you mention. It is a stat from the team scoreboard, the others are things we tally based on individual action. Both are valuable information, and both have their strengths and weaknesses, and that also means each much be handled with different concerns.

With +/- stats the thing we're super concerned with is noise in too-small sample size, but once we're beyond that and we've adjusted with regression with the teammates and opponents, it's not so much a question as whether the data tells us something significant, but specifically that something is.

And so the really valuable thing here is not so much for me to convince you I'm right that Luka isn't a strong MVP candidate based on the value of his play this year, but for you to explain what you think the explanation is.

But what I'm getting from folks right now are things that effectively look to critique the stat rather than evaluate the player. I don't actually mind having some discussion about the former - no stat is the end-all be-all - but when it makes us avoid actually talking what in the player's game might cause issues along these lines, it blocks the basketball conversation.

+/- is super tied to the quality of your teammates, configuration, and rotation, or, your luck. It is no wonder Parker and Manu are among the historic top 10 in +/-, higher than Kobe, Nash, KD, and Shaq.

If Luka, me and my son always start off the bench, his +/- will reach rockbottom, but does that make him the nba worst player? He has been a starter on a twisted roster with mostly bench players as starters and bench starters on the bench the entire time he with the Mavs.

[Mavrelous]

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[dygaction]

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at some point elevating a teammate to all star should be the thing to talk about. Murray playing 5 more games and win 3 out those 5 could have made a difference, as Denver would be #1 West and coach will ensure two players making it.

[Wolfgang630]

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I made this post like 7 posts ago lol

[Mavrelous]

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at some point elevating a teammate to all star should be the thing to talk about. Murray playing 5 more games and win 3 out those 5 could have made a difference, as Denver would be #1 West and coach will ensure two players making it.

Murray is an amazing PO performer, and his impact can't be understated but in RS he really takes a lot of time off, the rest of the team are more of role players on offense, Aaron Gordon is underappreciated, he may be the best role player has seen the last 10 years, but he's a role player.

[Mavrelous]

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I made this post like 7 posts ago lol

My bad, missed it among the Luka on/off posts.