2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[bondom34]

See, but Mike is an offensive genius when he gets the buy in from his players and the green light to run his offense the way he wants. I mean Gordon has never shot like this before. Ryan Anderson is in a shooting slump at home shooting and is still nailing a career high in attempts, makes, and percentage. You have some shooters on your team. He would play them and sometimes they might play out of position, but they would get easier shots. He would have kept Illyasova most definitely. Why even trade that guy? Sabonis can shoot, Morrow, Abrines. You have shooters. He would deploy them and your bigs would be even more dominant. Montrezl freaking Harrell is 6'7 and a 2nd round draft pick playing center and playing well. It's crazy to watch. Last night this dude get 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 blocks in 27 minutes. Mike D basically said he didn't even know who he was when he took the job, but he recognizes things in players and puts them in positions to be successful.

I'd disagree a bit here. Morrow and Abrines are spot players, that's been their role career long for Morrow (Abrines is a rook), while Gordon's always been the superior player. Ryno's also been a better shooter than anyone else on OKC as far as that goes. There's a reason netiehr of the 2 on OKC have ever been more than 20ish mpg players while Anderson and Gordon have been capable starters. They're definitely more talented, they're better coached as well.

But you did have Illyasova who was pretty much Ryan Anderson light. He got traded away because of the frontcourt logjam. Mike D would have kept him and played him. Not traded him for another guy that can't shoot. Maybe some Sabonis at center too to open things up even more. Just a difference in philosophy here I suppose. What to with either Kanter or Adams? Trade one for a better perimeter player. I don't know. This is the way Presti chose to construct the roster. Big, athletic guys that can play above the rim and a few spot shooters that play limited minutes. They are talented though. I watch OKC all the time and Kanter and Adams are good with Russ on pick and rolls while Dipo can attack the basket better than any player on the Rockets outside of you know who. They just aren't an overall good shooting team. You're right. It didn't have to be that way though.

Yeah, they really need to (or should) move Kanter for a wing, most fans at least on this board want them to. Ersan wasn't very good in his short time in OKC, and I think they wanted to play Sabonis more early on and just give him the experience. This season was essentially a punt, as they didn't have time to recuperate after Durant left and sort of have a roster that was built for KD, except now without him being there. The best way I heard it described for Russ's ideal roster is, oddly enough, the Rockets . If they could get 1 or 2 shooters and a decent wing this offseason I could see a leap like what Houston made this year. They have to move on from Kanter most likely.

[MrCheerios]

And the Warriors won 67 games that year and had an all-time type of season - largely because of Curry. 11 win difference between the Warriors/Rockets that year is probably around what the difference will be between the Rockets/OKC this year give or take a few wins.

Enough with the mental gymnastics and nit-picking. The same principle applies to both circumstances, despite the differences you two are attempting to exaggerate.

The circumstances are not the same, whether you admit it or not. Curry had two all-stars teammates in 14-15, while Harden had none. The only other player with any start power on Houston, Dwight, missed half the season. Golden State's bench was greatly improved over the year prior and universally regarded as better than Houston's. Houston's bench featured Jason Terry, Corey Brewer, and Josh Smith, the latter two being midseason acquisitions. Unless you think Steph Curry's performance was so personally badass that he dragged two teammates to the all-star game, he had much more help than Harden. With hindsight it's clear how much more help Curry had.

Harden will still be Houston's only all-star game this year, same with Westbrook and the Thunder. And considering they have a 7.5 game lead over OKC right now halfway through the season, it wouldn't be surprising to see a bigger than 11 game gap between the two teams by season's end. Personally, I don't think Westbrook will deserve MVP if his team is a 45-46 win, 7th seed team. If they win 55+ and are a homecourt team, give him the nod over Harden.

Wait, I'm confused. Who were the two all stars Curry had during the 14-15 season?

He had Klay, who was a glorified 3+D player at the point in his career.

Net Rating:

Harden: +8.8
Curry: +17.8

Not even close.

A guy who could play elite defense and drop 22ppg, on good percentages, in 32mpg is a glorified 3+D player? How many teams have that luxury? Neither Harden nor Westbrook have that kind of sidekick now.

[Bergmaniac]

See, but Mike is an offensive genius when he gets the buy in from his players and the green light to run his offense the way he wants. I mean Gordon has never shot like this before. Ryan Anderson is in a shooting slump at home shooting and is still nailing a career high in attempts, makes, and percentage. You have some shooters on your team. He would play them and sometimes they might play out of position, but they would get easier shots. He would have kept Illyasova most definitely. Why even trade that guy? Sabonis can shoot, Morrow, Abrines. You have shooters. He would deploy them and your bigs would be even more dominant. Montrezl freaking Harrell is 6'7 and a 2nd round draft pick playing center and playing well. It's crazy to watch. Last night this dude get 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 blocks in 27 minutes. Mike D basically said he didn't even know who he was when he took the job, but he recognizes things in players and puts them in positions to be successful.

I'd disagree a bit here. Morrow and Abrines are spot players, that's been their role career long for Morrow (Abrines is a rook), while Gordon's always been the superior player. Ryno's also been a better shooter than anyone else on OKC as far as that goes. There's a reason netiehr of the 2 on OKC have ever been more than 20ish mpg players while Anderson and Gordon have been capable starters. They're definitely more talented, they're better coached as well.

But you did have Illyasova who was pretty much Ryan Anderson light. He got traded away because of the frontcourt logjam. Mike D would have kept him and played him. Not traded him for another guy that can't shoot.

Grant is actually shooting 41.7% from 3 this season. It's Roberson's complete inability to shoot which is killing their spacing.

[bondom34]

I'd disagree a bit here. Morrow and Abrines are spot players, that's been their role career long for Morrow (Abrines is a rook), while Gordon's always been the superior player. Ryno's also been a better shooter than anyone else on OKC as far as that goes. There's a reason netiehr of the 2 on OKC have ever been more than 20ish mpg players while Anderson and Gordon have been capable starters. They're definitely more talented, they're better coached as well.

But you did have Illyasova who was pretty much Ryan Anderson light. He got traded away because of the frontcourt logjam. Mike D would have kept him and played him. Not traded him for another guy that can't shoot.

Grant is actually shooting 41.7% from 3 this season. It's Roberson's complete inability to shoot which is killing their spacing.

And Sabonis went cold which hurts a ton.

[bondom34]

Also totally irrelevant to MVP but sort of a side track, Gordon and Anderson playing this well after leaving NOLA seems like there's almost something weird with NOLA's training staff. Those 2 couldn't stay healthy the last 3 years.

[Vator]

Grant is actually shooting 41.7% from 3 this season. It's Roberson's complete inability to shoot which is killing their spacing.

Yeah, but he shoots 1.4 a game and is a career 30% guy so one has to wonder if it's sustainable whereas Ilyasova shoots 5.7 per game and is a career 37% guy. That volume makes a huge difference in terms of floor spacing.

[PeptoKlepto]

Nobody thought the 14-15 Warriors would come near 67 wins, either, based on the roster.
Sometimes players organically develop around a superstar. That's what happened around Curry back then, and it's happening around Harden now. They just needed a coaching/philosophy change, the same way the Warriors did when they canned Jackson for Kerr.

That's because no one knew Green was arguably a top 20 player in all of basketball his rookie year, if not higher. Having one player that good can make all the difference in the world. GS discovered one from no where, and had a 2nd rookie develop into a very good player (Barnes). Plus the bench acquisitions.

It was obvious to anyone watching basketball how talented that team was. It's obvious to anyone watching basketball how starless the Rockets were in 2015 AND now. Presti wouldn't trade Kanter, Adams or Oladipo for any current Rocket not named Harden. You overstate the talent difference today and understate it in 2015.

The mental gymnastics on display here are at an Olympic level.

Harrison Barnes was a very good player? That's comical - and it's further proof that you're milking/exaggerating the Warriors' roster in an effort to pimp your argument. Barnes wasn't a good player at all.

Furthermore, Draymond Green being a top-20 player today is irrelevant to that season. What you see today isn't what was true two/three years ago. Especially from passing and playmaking standpoint, Green wasn't even close to being the point-forward he's evolved into now.

And really, Curry's Net Rating that year 17.8 compared to Harden's 7.8, so it isn't even a contest. Sorry man.

[Heej]

I'd disagree a bit here. Morrow and Abrines are spot players, that's been their role career long for Morrow (Abrines is a rook), while Gordon's always been the superior player. Ryno's also been a better shooter than anyone else on OKC as far as that goes. There's a reason netiehr of the 2 on OKC have ever been more than 20ish mpg players while Anderson and Gordon have been capable starters. They're definitely more talented, they're better coached as well.

But you did have Illyasova who was pretty much Ryan Anderson light. He got traded away because of the frontcourt logjam. Mike D would have kept him and played him. Not traded him for another guy that can't shoot.

Grant is actually shooting 41.7% from 3 this season. It's Roberson's complete inability to shoot which is killing their spacing.

It's sad how allergic he is to shooting too. Dude airballed a FT last night... SAD! He's potentially a 2nd team all defense guy too which makes it all the more tragic

[Bergmaniac]

Grant is actually shooting 41.7% from 3 this season. It's Roberson's complete inability to shoot which is killing their spacing.

Yeah, but he shoots 1.4 a game and is a career 30% guy so one has to wonder if it's sustainable whereas Ilyasova shoots 5.7 per game and is a career 37% guy. That volume makes a huge difference in terms of floor spacing.

Yeah, that's a significant factor. Part of OKC's problem with shooting is some of their guys with best 3 point percentages (Grant and Sabonis) still aren't particularly confident in their 3 point shot since it's their first season hitting it at a good clip so they pass some good looks from 3. They also don't have the quick release of the 3 point specialists. On the other hand Morrow is a shooting slump and is still a bad defender so he can't get minutes.

[PeptoKlepto]

The circumstances are not the same, whether you admit it or not. Curry had two all-stars teammates in 14-15, while Harden had none. The only other player with any start power on Houston, Dwight, missed half the season. Golden State's bench was greatly improved over the year prior and universally regarded as better than Houston's. Houston's bench featured Jason Terry, Corey Brewer, and Josh Smith, the latter two being midseason acquisitions. Unless you think Steph Curry's performance was so personally badass that he dragged two teammates to the all-star game, he had much more help than Harden. With hindsight it's clear how much more help Curry had.

Harden will still be Houston's only all-star game this year, same with Westbrook and the Thunder. And considering they have a 7.5 game lead over OKC right now halfway through the season, it wouldn't be surprising to see a bigger than 11 game gap between the two teams by season's end. Personally, I don't think Westbrook will deserve MVP if his team is a 45-46 win, 7th seed team. If they win 55+ and are a homecourt team, give him the nod over Harden.

Wait, I'm confused. Who were the two all stars Curry had during the 14-15 season?

He had Klay, who was a glorified 3+D player at the point in his career.

Net Rating:

Harden: +8.8
Curry: +17.8

Not even close.

A guy who could play elite defense and drop 22ppg, on good percentages, in 32mpg is a glorified 3+D player? How many teams have that luxury? Neither Harden nor Westbrook have that kind of sidekick now.

Yes, that's exactly what he was - a glorified 3+D player. Back then he had no idea how to drive to the rim or create his own shot (he still has trouble with this aspect in his offense). He couldn't handle, play-make for others, or grab rebounds (he has a terrible rebounding rate for a 6'7 SG)...all he did literally was sit outside the arc and wait for Curry to give him open looks.

And really, this isn't up for debate. Curry more than doubled Harden's net rating, and had him beat in TS%, assist rate, TO rate, WS/48 and VORP - and led the Warriors to a league best and Warriors best (at the time) 67 win season.

Yet somehow Harden should've won that MVP because "worse team" and today Harden should win MVP despite Westbrook being on the worse team.

[K_chile22]

Also totally irrelevant to MVP but sort of a side track, Gordon and Anderson playing this well after leaving NOLA seems like there's almost something weird with NOLA's training staff. Those 2 couldn't stay healthy the last 3 years.

Wasn't there an expose of sorts talking about how the Owner just brought in the saints training staff in to be a basketball training staff and being a trainer for the two sports is different

[Vator]

Yeah, they really need to (or should) move Kanter for a wing, most fans at least on this board want them to. Ersan wasn't very good in his short time in OKC, and I think they wanted to play Sabonis more early on and just give him the experience. This season was essentially a punt, as they didn't have time to recuperate after Durant left and sort of have a roster that was built for KD, except now without him being there. The best way I heard it described for Russ's ideal roster is, oddly enough, the Rockets . If they could get 1 or 2 shooters and a decent wing this offseason I could see a leap like what Houston made this year. They have to move on from Kanter most likely.

One last point about this and I'm done. Don't want to beat a dead horse, but lets just say OKC follows the Rockets' blueprint. Bring in two high volume outside shooters to open up the court more. A stretch 4 and a knock down shooter on the wing either at SG or SF. Just a quick glance through NBA statistics tells me that Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, Porzingis, Ilyasova, and Channing Frye are your most prolific stretch 4 guys. Only 2 of those guys are likely attainable and you already had one of them. Maybe they don't do that trade in retrospect? That was what I was saying about coaching. Mike D values spacing and you already had an elite level floor spacer on the team that for some reason didn't fit while there nor fit into the future plans. I really don't know. Finding a good shooter on the wing won't be quite as difficult most likely.

Back to MVP discussion. My initial point before getting a little sidetracked was that the overall talent on OKC and HOU in my opinion is similar although the strengths are in different places. The Thunder are capable of doing things on the court that the Rockets simply can't and vice versa. I think that the coaching is where the biggest discrepancy is taking place. Not the difference in the way Harden and Westbrook play, not the talent, not the bench...the coaching of said rosters and utilizing the strengths of the players you have. Ilyasova would have been bombing 8 three point attempts per game if he had been the Thunder's coach and you know it.

I'm secretly hoping the Rockets can figure out how to sneak him out of Philly. All threes all the time. Anderson to the bench...Ilyasova comes running out haha.

[bondom34]

Yeah, they really need to (or should) move Kanter for a wing, most fans at least on this board want them to. Ersan wasn't very good in his short time in OKC, and I think they wanted to play Sabonis more early on and just give him the experience. This season was essentially a punt, as they didn't have time to recuperate after Durant left and sort of have a roster that was built for KD, except now without him being there. The best way I heard it described for Russ's ideal roster is, oddly enough, the Rockets . If they could get 1 or 2 shooters and a decent wing this offseason I could see a leap like what Houston made this year. They have to move on from Kanter most likely.

One last point about this and I'm done. Don't want to beat a dead horse, but lets just say OKC follows the Rockets' blueprint. Bring in two high volume outside shooters to open up the court more. A stretch 4 and a knock down shooter on the wing either at SG or SF. Just a quick glance through NBA statistics tells me that Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, Porzingis, Ilyasova, and Channing Frye are your most prolific stretch 4 guys. Only 2 of those guys are likely attainable and you already had one of them. Maybe they don't do that trade in retrospect? That was what I was saying about coaching. Mike D values spacing and you already had an elite level floor spacer on the team that for some reason didn't fit while there nor fit into the future plans. I really don't know. Finding a good shooter on the wing won't be quite as difficult most likely.

Back to MVP discussion. My initial point before getting a little sidetracked was that the overall talent on OKC and HOU in my opinion is similar although the strengths are in different places. The Thunder are capable of doing things on the court that the Rockets simply can't and vice versa. I think that the coaching is where the biggest discrepancy is taking place. Not the difference in the way Harden and Westbrook play, not the talent, not the bench...the coaching of said rosters and utilizing the strengths of the players you have. Ilyasova would have been bombing 8 three point attempts per game if he had been the Thunder's coach.

Eh...I'd disagree there. I think there's a clear talent and experience edge to Houston. The question was if they'd be healthy and defend, and they've excelled at both.

As for Ersan, he's a shooter yes, but other than that does nothing the others can. At this point I think Sabonis is just better off getting the minutes. Houston's certainly got the talent edge to me, but the coaching helps too.

[bondom34]

Also totally irrelevant to MVP but sort of a side track, Gordon and Anderson playing this well after leaving NOLA seems like there's almost something weird with NOLA's training staff. Those 2 couldn't stay healthy the last 3 years.

Wasn't there an expose of sorts talking about how the Owner just brought in the saints training staff in to be a basketball training staff and being a trainer for the two sports is different

Now that you mention it, I think there was something on Benson! Might have to check into this.

[Vator]

Eh...I'd disagree there. I think there's a clear talent and experience edge to Houston. The question was if they'd be healthy and defend, and they've excelled at both.

As for Ersan, he's a shooter yes, but other than that does nothing the others can. At this point I think Sabonis is just better off getting the minutes. Houston's certainly got the talent edge to me, but the coaching helps too.

Go look up Ersan's and Ryan's stats and place them side by side. I think you might be eerily surprised at how similar they are across the board. They are almost the same guy.

[bondom34]

Eh...I'd disagree there. I think there's a clear talent and experience edge to Houston. The question was if they'd be healthy and defend, and they've excelled at both.

As for Ersan, he's a shooter yes, but other than that does nothing the others can. At this point I think Sabonis is just better off getting the minutes. Houston's certainly got the talent edge to me, but the coaching helps too.

Go look up Ersan's and Ryan's stats and place them side by side. I think you might be eerily surprised at how similar they are across the board. They are almost the same guy.

Box score is similar, but plus minus is....not so much. 2016 RAPM:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0

Ryno at 123 at a 2.32 offense, -1.72 defense

Ersan at 602 at a -1.51 and -1.63

He can shoot, but not much else to make a team good.

[Shock Defeat]

Also totally irrelevant to MVP but sort of a side track, Gordon and Anderson playing this well after leaving NOLA seems like there's almost something weird with NOLA's training staff. Those 2 couldn't stay healthy the last 3 years.

I feel like MDA coached players don't put as much stress on their bodies because they are usually playing loose basketball. MDA is not asking these guys to grind it out or give a TON of energy on defense.

[Vator]

Eh...I'd disagree there. I think there's a clear talent and experience edge to Houston. The question was if they'd be healthy and defend, and they've excelled at both.

As for Ersan, he's a shooter yes, but other than that does nothing the others can. At this point I think Sabonis is just better off getting the minutes. Houston's certainly got the talent edge to me, but the coaching helps too.

Go look up Ersan's and Ryan's stats and place them side by side. I think you might be eerily surprised at how similar they are across the board. They are almost the same guy.

Box score is similar, but plus minus is....not so much. 2016 RAPM:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0

Ryno at 123 at a 2.32 offense, -1.72 defense

Ersan at 602 at a -1.51 and -1.63

He can shoot, but not much else to make a team good.

Look at the advanced stats across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/rMqSK

[bondom34]

Go look up Ersan's and Ryan's stats and place them side by side. I think you might be eerily surprised at how similar they are across the board. They are almost the same guy.

Box score is similar, but plus minus is....not so much. 2016 RAPM:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0

Ryno at 123 at a 2.32 offense, -1.72 defense

Ersan at 602 at a -1.51 and -1.63

He can shoot, but not much else to make a team good.

Look at the advanced stats across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/rMqSK

Yep, did that too. As I said box score is similar, all metrics on BBR are box score.

[RaptorsLife]

Kawhi Leonard last 4 games 33pts on 69% shooting I wouldn't write him off. If he has a monster 2nd half and 60-65 wins spurs