2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

Moderators: Clav, Domejandro, ken6199, bisme37, Dirk, KingDavid, cupcakesnake, bwgood77, zimpy27, infinite11285

Vator
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 8,124
And1: 579
Joined: Oct 16, 2005
Location: Houston
     

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1741 » by Vator » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:20 pm

bondom34 wrote:
Vator wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Box score is similar, but plus minus is....not so much. 2016 RAPM:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0

Ryno at 123 at a 2.32 offense, -1.72 defense

Ersan at 602 at a -1.51 and -1.63

He can shoot, but not much else to make a team good.


Look at the advanced stats across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/rMqSK

Yep, did that too. As I said box score is similar, all metrics on BBR are box score.


And if I'm to completely trust the document you showed me, I have to suspend all logic and believe that Kyle Korver is a lockdown defender and one of the top 10 players in the NBA along with Ricky Rubio. :D

None of it is an exact science. I don't happen to think from watching them play that there is a huge difference there. Ryno is a spot up shooter that really doesn't do much else at a high level either, but shooting from that 4 spot makes you a commodity.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1742 » by bondom34 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:22 pm

Vator wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Vator wrote:
Look at the advanced stats across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/rMqSK

Yep, did that too. As I said box score is similar, all metrics on BBR are box score.


And if I'm to completely trust the document you showed me, I have to suspend all logic and believe that Kyle Korver is a lockdown defender and one of the top 10 players in the NBA along with Ricky Rubio. :D

None of it is an exact science. I don't happen to think from watching them play that there is a huge difference there. Ryno is a spot up shooter that really doesn't do much else at a high level either, but shooting from that 4 spot makes you a commodity.

I'd respectfully disagree :D. But Rubio is a high level player who's been severly underrated. RAPM also accounts for how a player fits in, which Korver did perfectly in ATL.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
MrCheerios
Analyst
Posts: 3,009
And1: 887
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Location: New York

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1743 » by MrCheerios » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:40 pm

PeptoKlepto wrote:
MrCheerios wrote:
PeptoKlepto wrote:
Wait, I'm confused. Who were the two all stars Curry had during the 14-15 season? :-?

He had Klay, who was a glorified 3+D player at the point in his career.

Net Rating:

Harden: +8.8
Curry: +17.8

Not even close.

A guy who could play elite defense and drop 22ppg, on good percentages, in 32mpg is a glorified 3+D player? How many teams have that luxury? Neither Harden nor Westbrook have that kind of sidekick now.


Yes, that's exactly what he was - a glorified 3+D player. Back then he had no idea how to drive to the rim or create his own shot (he still has trouble with this aspect in his offense). He couldn't handle, play-make for others, or grab rebounds (he has a terrible rebounding rate for a 6'7 SG)...all he did literally was sit outside the arc and wait for Curry to give him open looks.

And really, this isn't up for debate. Curry more than doubled Harden's net rating, and had him beat in TS%, assist rate, TO rate, WS/48 and VORP - and led the Warriors to a league best and Warriors best (at the time) 67 win season.

Yet somehow Harden should've won that MVP because "worse team" and today Harden should win MVP despite Westbrook being on the worse team.

Despite whatever limitations you think Thompson had that year, he was a luxury that other MVP candidates usually do not have. Imagine if Westbrook had a player that could score at that rate, shooting those percentages, and play top rate defense. The Thunder would be considerably better and Westbrook would undoubtedly have more assists. His rebounding rate and passing ability are afterthoughts when his frontcourt consists of Green and Bogut and he had Livingston and Iggy off the bench. The team was well constructed and did not require those skills from him.

The matter is clearly debatable, as Curry was not a unanimous MVP and Harden won the Players Association vote for MVP. Other are allowed to disagree with you. And some of the advanced stats you reference Curry winning are influenced by the quality of teammates and team scheme anyway (TS%, AST %, TO%, VORP).

And how is Harden having a "worse" team than Curry a sarcastic air quote-worty statement, while Westbrook's supporting cast being worse obvious to you? Who would OKC trade for Adams, Kanter, and Oladipo for on Houston's current roster? I would've traded Houston's whole 14-15 starting lineup for Golden State's!
User avatar
red96
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,226
And1: 2,393
Joined: Oct 09, 2008
Location: Where hope is still alive.

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1744 » by red96 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:16 am

Vator wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Vator wrote:
Look at the advanced stats across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/rMqSK

Yep, did that too. As I said box score is similar, all metrics on BBR are box score.


And if I'm to completely trust the document you showed me, I have to suspend all logic and believe that Kyle Korver is a lockdown defender and one of the top 10 players in the NBA along with Ricky Rubio. :D

None of it is an exact science. I don't happen to think from watching them play that there is a huge difference there. Ryno is a spot up shooter that really doesn't do much else at a high level either, but shooting from that 4 spot makes you a commodity.
It sure isn't a science. It has Danny Green 14th between Harden and Westbrook. Patrick Patterson is over Paul George, Iggy, Love, Cousins, Ibaka, and LMA. Duncan is ranked 36, Dirk at 30, Griffin at 69, and Bosh at 101 respectively. Shawn Marion at 295 is only 6 ahead of the "infamous" Royce"can't fly" White. :lol:
"Morey decided in 2007 that Steve Francis was to be the "franchise player" of the Rockets only to play what... 5 games? Morey didn't think Marc Gasol was worth a look that year,"
-baki "the Rockets fan"
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1745 » by bondom34 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:24 am

red96 wrote:
Vator wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Yep, did that too. As I said box score is similar, all metrics on BBR are box score.


And if I'm to completely trust the document you showed me, I have to suspend all logic and believe that Kyle Korver is a lockdown defender and one of the top 10 players in the NBA along with Ricky Rubio. :D

None of it is an exact science. I don't happen to think from watching them play that there is a huge difference there. Ryno is a spot up shooter that really doesn't do much else at a high level either, but shooting from that 4 spot makes you a commodity.
It sure isn't a science. It has Danny Green 14th between Harden and Westbrook. Patrick Patterson is over Paul George, Iggy, Love, Cousins, Ibaka, and LMA. Duncan is ranked 36, Dirk at 30, Griffin at 69, and Bosh at 101 respectively. Shawn Marion at 295 is only 6 ahead of the "infamous" Royce"can't fly" White. :lol:

Like I said, it accounts for fit, and has been the general best predictive model out there. It doesn't account for minutes played.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
cdubbz
RealGM
Posts: 15,471
And1: 4,001
Joined: May 05, 2005
Location: Oakland
 

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1746 » by cdubbz » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:33 am

Anyone think KD can sneak into serious MVP consideration if the Warriors win 70 games and his efficiency is still amazing?
Kuya wrote: a good agent collects all the data, including quotes to give them leverage in contract deals.
User avatar
TMU
Forum Mod - Rockets
Forum Mod - Rockets
Posts: 30,188
And1: 10,413
Joined: Jan 02, 2005
Location: O.R.
       

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1747 » by TMU » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:44 am

Haven't looked into this myself because of the new all-star voting system, but I wonder if the media panel who voted the all-stars is also the same/similar panel that will dish out votes for the MVP. If so, it looks like Westbrook could be the frontrunner. Any ideas?

EDIT: Media voting resulted in 93 vs 91 in favor of Westbrook, but very close. This could very well come down to 2nd and 3rd place votings.
MrCheerios
Analyst
Posts: 3,009
And1: 887
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Location: New York

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1748 » by MrCheerios » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:51 am

cdubbz wrote:Anyone think KD can sneak into serious MVP consideration if the Warriors win 70 games and his efficiency is still amazing?

I think so, but others would say no. He's been absolutely amazing, but they add him to the core of a 73 win team and they win three fewer games? That'll be held against him, unfairly or not.
cdubbz
RealGM
Posts: 15,471
And1: 4,001
Joined: May 05, 2005
Location: Oakland
 

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1749 » by cdubbz » Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:10 am

MrCheerios wrote:
cdubbz wrote:Anyone think KD can sneak into serious MVP consideration if the Warriors win 70 games and his efficiency is still amazing?

I think so, but others would say no. He's been absolutely amazing, but they add him to the core of a 73 win team and they win three fewer games? That'll be held against him, unfairly or not.


I dont think that is even accounted for lol.
Kuya wrote: a good agent collects all the data, including quotes to give them leverage in contract deals.
nbafan38
Head Coach
Posts: 7,492
And1: 5,704
Joined: May 29, 2014
   

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1750 » by nbafan38 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:25 am

MrCheerios wrote:
cdubbz wrote:Anyone think KD can sneak into serious MVP consideration if the Warriors win 70 games and his efficiency is still amazing?

I think so, but others would say no. He's been absolutely amazing, but they add him to the core of a 73 win team and they win three fewer games? That'll be held against him, unfairly or not.


It's fair he basically gave up winning MVPS by his move.
cdubbz
RealGM
Posts: 15,471
And1: 4,001
Joined: May 05, 2005
Location: Oakland
 

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1751 » by cdubbz » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:58 am

nbafan38 wrote:
MrCheerios wrote:
cdubbz wrote:Anyone think KD can sneak into serious MVP consideration if the Warriors win 70 games and his efficiency is still amazing?

I think so, but others would say no. He's been absolutely amazing, but they add him to the core of a 73 win team and they win three fewer games? That'll be held against him, unfairly or not.


It's fair he basically gave up winning MVPS by his move.


Yet he's having one of the best years or his career.
Kuya wrote: a good agent collects all the data, including quotes to give them leverage in contract deals.
nbafan38
Head Coach
Posts: 7,492
And1: 5,704
Joined: May 29, 2014
   

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1752 » by nbafan38 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:01 am

cdubbz wrote:
nbafan38 wrote:
MrCheerios wrote:I think so, but others would say no. He's been absolutely amazing, but they add him to the core of a 73 win team and they win three fewer games? That'll be held against him, unfairly or not.


It's fair he basically gave up winning MVPS by his move.


Yet he's having one of the best years or his career.


Great but he's not seen as an MVP when his team could win a championship without him.
Styrian
Junior
Posts: 272
And1: 169
Joined: Dec 24, 2012

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1753 » by Styrian » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:47 am

nbafan38 wrote:
cdubbz wrote:
nbafan38 wrote:
It's fair he basically gave up winning MVPS by his move.


Yet he's having one of the best years or his career.


Great but he's not seen as an MVP when his team could win a championship without him.


I don't understand your logic. To win a championship you need to be the best team in league - but there is difference between being the best in the league and the best team ever. A player value isn't exponential, someone who makes 30 win team into 55 win team can be less valuable than a player making 60 win team into a 70 win team. Why? Because only two teams in 70 year NBA history won at least 70 games. And honestly Warriors last year weren't that good to win that many games, they just lucked out in bunch of games they should've lost. It's hard to be so much better than everyone else. For example Westbrook can anchor top 5 offense in the league, but he can't anchor top 5 offense ever, because his league average shotting efficiency and high turnover rate isn't good enough to achieve that.

You could even argue based on previous precedent Durant should be the favorite now:

Image
nbafan38
Head Coach
Posts: 7,492
And1: 5,704
Joined: May 29, 2014
   

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1754 » by nbafan38 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:52 am

Styrian wrote:
nbafan38 wrote:
cdubbz wrote:
Yet he's having one of the best years or his career.


Great but he's not seen as an MVP when his team could win a championship without him.


I don't understand your logic. To win a championship you need to be the best team in league - but there is difference between being the best in the league and the best team ever. A player value isn't exponential, someone who makes 30 win team into 55 win team can be less valuable than a player making 60 win team into a 70 win team. Why? Because only two teams in 70 year NBA history won at least 70 games. And honestly Warriors last year weren't that good to win that many games, they just lucked out in bunch of games they should've lost. It's hard to be so much better than everyone else. For example Westbrook can anchor top 5 offense in the league, but he can't anchor top 5 offense ever, because his league average shotting efficiency and high turnover rate isn't good enough to achieve that.

You could even argue based on previous precedent Durant should be the favorite now:

Image


Okay well if you're gonna use that rationale to discredit their accomplishment last year, then idk what to say, the fact is they won 73 games without Kevin Durant.
User avatar
Hero
RealGM
Posts: 38,318
And1: 53,515
Joined: Apr 05, 2012
Location: Edward Gardens
 

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1755 » by Hero » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:09 am

cdubbz wrote:
nbafan38 wrote:
MrCheerios wrote:I think so, but others would say no. He's been absolutely amazing, but they add him to the core of a 73 win team and they win three fewer games? That'll be held against him, unfairly or not.


It's fair he basically gave up winning MVPS by his move.


Yet he's having one of the best years or his career.


Nobody is denying that but there is no way he wins MVP.
Styrian
Junior
Posts: 272
And1: 169
Joined: Dec 24, 2012

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1756 » by Styrian » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:22 am

nbafan38 wrote:
Styrian wrote:
nbafan38 wrote:
Great but he's not seen as an MVP when his team could win a championship without him.


I don't understand your logic. To win a championship you need to be the best team in league - but there is difference between being the best in the league and the best team ever. A player value isn't exponential, someone who makes 30 win team into 55 win team can be less valuable than a player making 60 win team into a 70 win team. Why? Because only two teams in 70 year NBA history won at least 70 games. And honestly Warriors last year weren't that good to win that many games, they just lucked out in bunch of games they should've lost. It's hard to be so much better than everyone else. For example Westbrook can anchor top 5 offense in the league, but he can't anchor top 5 offense ever, because his league average shotting efficiency and high turnover rate isn't good enough to achieve that.

You could even argue based on previous precedent Durant should be the favorite now:

Image


Okay well if you're gonna use that rationale to discredit their accomplishment last year, then idk what to say, the fact is they won 73 games without Kevin Durant.


They played 5 players that are no longer part of the team. Existing players don't play the same(Curry shooting 40% from 3pt line instead of 45% is a really big difference). It's a different team and this year they've been objectively better compared to last year(better on offense, better on defense - biggest contributor for both those improvements has been Durant), wins and losses don't tell the whole story. Even if they were worse, it doesn't really matter. Durant isn't competing with 2015-2016 Curry for an MVP award and your line of thinking makes it seem like that. Yes 2015-2016 Curry was more valuable, but for Durant to win he has to be better than other players in current season, past is more or less irrelevant.

I think Harden is the MVP after 42 games, but there is no reason to be so narrow minded and exclude KD for no logical reason.
PeptoKlepto
Senior
Posts: 633
And1: 702
Joined: Oct 27, 2016

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1757 » by PeptoKlepto » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:24 am

MrCheerios wrote:Despite whatever limitations you think Thompson had that year, he was a luxury that other MVP candidates usually do not have.


Hogwash. Is it more of a luxury than when LeBron won multiple MVPs playing with D-Wade and Bosh? Or Durant winning his MVP playing with Ibaka and Westbrook? Or Nash winning his playing with Stoudemire and Marion? You're gonna count it against Curry for having Klay freakin' Thompson on his team? Comical.

Imagine if Westbrook had a player that could score at that rate, shooting those percentages, and play top rate defense. The Thunder would be considerably better and Westbrook would undoubtedly have more assists.


That's not how it works. Klay Thompson scores at that rate w/ those percentages because he plays with Curry, who creates unprecedented amounts of space for his supporting cast and especially Thompson. He's not averaging these percentages playing anywhere else.

And why is your main focus on Klay? How about Harden having a defensive stud at center who averaged 16/11?

His rebounding rate and passing ability are afterthoughts when his frontcourt consists of Green and Bogut and he had Livingston and Iggy off the bench. The team was well constructed and did not require those skills from him.


Revisionist history strikes again. The Warriors' front court that year was a mess. Bogut missed 15 games and was on minutes restriction the entire year. David Lee missed 33 games. Festus Ezeli missed 33 games. Draymond Green was still a defensive specialist at that point that didn't have the all-around game that you see today.

Despite that, Curry leads the Warriors to a (then) franchise best 67 wins (11 more wins than Harden), more than doubled his net rating, had a better PER, better TS%, better TO and assist rates, better VORP, RPM and WS/48...yet somehow you still think Harden should've taken the MVP home? Okay buddy.

The matter is clearly debatable, as Curry was not a unanimous MVP and Harden won the Players Association vote for MVP. Other are allowed to disagree with you. And some of the advanced stats you reference Curry winning are influenced by the quality of teammates and team scheme anyway (TS%, AST %, TO%, VORP).


The players' association award was/is a complete and utter joke and was used as an 'F U' against the media, nothing more. Anyone who actually dug deep into the stats knew that Curry was the clear MVP that year.

And I get it. You've been on repeat for 3 pages now. You think Harden should've won MVP because he had worse teammates than Curry. So, again using that same logic, Westbrook should be the MVP over Harden this year, right?

Rockets net rating with Harden off the court: +4.1
Thunder net rating wtih Westbrook off the court: -10.9

According to your logic WB is MVP, right?

And how is Harden having a "worse" team than Curry a sarcastic air quote-worty statement, while Westbrook's supporting cast being worse obvious to you? Who would OKC trade for Adams, Kanter, and Oladipo for on Houston's current roster? I would've traded Houston's whole 14-15 starting lineup for Golden State's!


Of course you would've...because that means you would've had the two-time MVP. :lol:
User avatar
ken6199
Forum Mod - Rockets
Forum Mod - Rockets
Posts: 13,435
And1: 18,740
Joined: Jan 05, 2015
Location: Bill O'Brien is GOAT
     

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1758 » by ken6199 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:25 am

^^
KD won MVP in 13-14 largely because Westbrook missing 36 games that season and KD carrying the team on his back with his streak of 12 games of 30 plus points. Him playing with a squad of Curry, Green, Klay makes all the differences.

LeBon winning those simply because the perception of him being the best player on the planet and playing like the best player too.

KD this year, no matter how efficient his game is, is in no way 'carrying the team', nor is he considered as the best player on the planet.
RealGM loves you, Melissa.
Styrian
Junior
Posts: 272
And1: 169
Joined: Dec 24, 2012

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1759 » by Styrian » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:52 am

ken6199 wrote:^^
KD won MVP in 13-14 largely because Westbrook missing 36 games that season and KD carrying the team on his back with his streak of 12 games of 30 plus points. Him playing with a squad of Curry, Green, Klay makes all the differences.

LeBon winning those simply because the perception of him being the best player on the planet and playing like the best player too.

KD this year, no matter how efficient his game is, is in no way 'carrying the team', nor is he considered as the best player on the planet.


Yet in history there has been way more MVP winners that didn't "carry the team", but were "only" best player on the best team. Reverse of what you are saying. There is just no reason to be biased and exclude Durant for non-logical reasons(him switching teams doesn't influence MVP award of this season anyhow) when he is having a great season, statistically comparable to Harden.
User avatar
ken6199
Forum Mod - Rockets
Forum Mod - Rockets
Posts: 13,435
And1: 18,740
Joined: Jan 05, 2015
Location: Bill O'Brien is GOAT
     

Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread 

Post#1760 » by ken6199 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:01 am

Styrian wrote:
ken6199 wrote:^^
KD won MVP in 13-14 largely because Westbrook missing 36 games that season and KD carrying the team on his back with his streak of 12 games of 30 plus points. Him playing with a squad of Curry, Green, Klay makes all the differences.

LeBon winning those simply because the perception of him being the best player on the planet and playing like the best player too.

KD this year, no matter how efficient his game is, is in no way 'carrying the team', nor is he considered as the best player on the planet.


Yet in history there has been way more MVP winners that didn't "carry the team", but were "only" best player on the best team. Reverse of what you are saying. There is just no reason to be biased and exclude Durant for non-logical reasons(him switching teams doesn't influence MVP award of this season anyhow) when he is having a great season, statistically comparable to Harden.


You misread what I wrote. I have nothing against KD. I said "in no way he is carrying the team", not "in no way he is in the MVP discussion". I said switching teams makes a big difference.

KD and Westbrook, all those years playing together, the year he won it is the year Westbrook went down in regular season. They took votes off each other because voters think they are both 'very very valuable'. I was just pointing that out, as the above poster was trying to compare KD with the Heat Lebron.
RealGM loves you, Melissa.

Return to The General Board