2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[MrBigShot]

SGA is a flat out MVP caliber player and I will applaud him if he wins, but this race is all about Jokic vs voter fatigue, because there is no player in the world better than Jokic is right now.

[DrModesty]

Jokic's On/Off has been artificially high for years because of the absolute dross they have backing him up at the center position. When he is off the court they are bringing on centers that are just scraping the top 60 of the position. On top of that Jokic plays more with his other starters than most stars in the league which further pumps up the On/Off numbers.

It would be very high even with a good back up center, and if he did play more with bench players, because Jokic is a fantastic player and the team is built around his talent and skill set. But it is a stat that is warped in his favor, and this has been a known thing for years at this point.

Even if he had a decent backup it doesn’t take into account of how much of a multiplier Jokic is. Jokic is the offense on the team. He does everything. He even coaches players abs draws up players on the bench. So no matter who you have as a back up you are going to have a huge drop off. This is not a specific Nuggets problem. Just look at the Olympics. This is the definition of most valuable

Read on Twitter

I mean I said it would still be very high. It just wouldn't be as strong if Denver were bringing a league average back up center off the bench as opposed to a 3rd stringer.

[Black star]

When it comes to putting up boxscore stats there hasn't been a better more mind boggling player since prime Wilt. I still value SGA more as the engine of a historically great team with absurd impact metrics but Jokic's numbers might overwhelm even that

[falcolombardi]

The Thunder are going to win so many games it'll be hard to not give it to SGA. It's not a Joel Embiid situation, but it would still be the wrong decision. Jokic is having perhaps the best offensive season of all time. Jokic, a center, is averaging almost twice as many assists as SGA, a point guard. But those 50 point games sure do look pretty on the resume, and the casual media has always been obsessed with points as a barometer.

This guy is going to average a triple double, finish in the top five of pretty much everything. This injured team full of role players is still going to win over 50 games, and he's not going to win MVP. It's gonna look really silly a decade from now. But whatever. 50 point games!

So, reasonable perspective, but it also offers an entry point into the essence of the dilemma:

Jokic is having the best offensive season of all time.
Shai is also having an all-time great level offensive season, and doing so while also being a significant part of the best defense in the league.

The latter isn't necessarily more valuable than the former, but might it be? Yes, it's clearly possible.

Is it actually? Well, that's the question without consensus.

These are some of the dynamics, but also how much is it a question of "who has been the best player this season" v "relevance to team success". How do you weigh those factors?

Both Denver and OKC have lost key players to injury, but Jokic is the guy who isn't playing with a single other all-star. OKC is probably going to finish with ~10 more wins than Denver, but Cleveland has a similar record and no one is talking about any Cavs player for MVP (and rightly so). So to me, this pushes the convo towards giving more weighting to "who has been the best player this year"

And there, it's almost impossible to make a case for SGA over Jokic. Jokic is dominating across almost every statistical category AND is likely to end the season as only the 3rd player in history to average a triple-double for a season (and the 1st non-guard to do it). Jokic already has 4 of the 5 highest apg seasons for a center in NBA history and this year he is going to blow past that 9.8 mark.

I don't want to diminish SGA's season. He's been incredible. But I really get the feeling that there is a hunt for reasons to not give the MVP to Jokic.

The thingh about the all star thingh this year, and to a degree all other recent years, is that denver has not been good enough for murray to win an all star nod

If okc and denver switched records murray would be an all star and jalen williams wouldnt even be acnowledged as a real candidate by most

You can prefer jalen over murray, but a lot of the recent perception one is clearly better than the other is murray slump last year and okc having too many wins to not get a 2nd all star

Like, mo willians made a (replacement) all star gane because lebron took cavs to 66 and he was not better than jamal (nor in the same level)

Meanwhile on shai vs jokic themselves

You mention triple doubles, a stat that had became mocked and diminished when a worse player won mvp with it but has cane back in vogue as non "arbitrary" anymore than a more popular/better player does it

Shai is running away with the league scoring title, extremely efficiently at that, elevating his team to historic winninh margins when he plays, breaking the net rating/point differential records, gonna win 67 with a very affected by injuries roster. Leads EPM (the "best" recognized public advanced metric) Leads by a lot in on court net rating, has a 11 wins lead on jokic

If anythingh, people (rightfully) considering jokic the better player still is the only reason this is not a runaway mvp for shai.

You have it completely backwards, people are looking to find a way to have jokic still be mvp

[Black star]

So, reasonable perspective, but it also offers an entry point into the essence of the dilemma:

Jokic is having the best offensive season of all time.
Shai is also having an all-time great level offensive season, and doing so while also being a significant part of the best defense in the league.

The latter isn't necessarily more valuable than the former, but might it be? Yes, it's clearly possible.

Is it actually? Well, that's the question without consensus.

These are some of the dynamics, but also how much is it a question of "who has been the best player this season" v "relevance to team success". How do you weigh those factors?

Both Denver and OKC have lost key players to injury, but Jokic is the guy who isn't playing with a single other all-star. OKC is probably going to finish with ~10 more wins than Denver, but Cleveland has a similar record and no one is talking about any Cavs player for MVP (and rightly so). So to me, this pushes the convo towards giving more weighting to "who has been the best player this year"

And there, it's almost impossible to make a case for SGA over Jokic. Jokic is dominating across almost every statistical category AND is likely to end the season as only the 3rd player in history to average a triple-double for a season (and the 1st non-guard to do it). Jokic already has 4 of the 5 highest apg seasons for a center in NBA history and this year he is going to blow past that 9.8 mark.

I don't want to diminish SGA's season. He's been incredible. But I really get the feeling that there is a hunt for reasons to not give the MVP to Jokic.

The thingh about the all star thingh this year, and to a degree all other recent years, is that denver has not been good enough for murray to win an all star nod

If okc and denver switched records murray would be an all star and jalen williams wouldnt even be acnowledged as a real candidate by most

You can prefer jalen over murray, but a lot of the recent perception one is clearly better than the other is murray slump last year and okc having too many wins to not get a 2nd all star

Like, mo willians made a (replacement) all star gane because lebron took cavs to 66 and he was not better than jamal (nor in the same level)

This is a good point.

2009 1st seed Cavs win 66 games behind Lebron James: Mo Williams averages 18 3 and 4 with a BPM of 2.3 (first time all star)
2019 1st seed Bucks win 60 games behind Giannis: Khris Middleton averages 18 6 and 4 with a BPM of .8 (first time all star)
2024 2nd seed Nuggets win 57 games behind Jokic: Jamal Murray averages 21 4 and 6 with a BPM of 4.1 (no all star)
2025 1st seed OKC on pace to win 67 games behind SGA: Jalen Williams averages 21 5 and 5 with a BPM of 3.8(first time all star)

Jamal Murray even in the regular season was better than Middleton and Williams their first all star years but Denver has never been so good the voters felt compelled to give them a 2nd all star.

[OkcSinceSGA]

SGA is a flat out MVP caliber player and I will applaud him if he wins, but this race is all about Jokic vs voter fatigue, because there is no player in the world better than Jokic is right now.

He’s far greater than MVP caliber though. SGA himself is having a top 10 all time season statistically. That’s where the floor of this conversation should move to. So if we say Jokic is having a top 5 all time season, SGA is having a 5-10 ranked season. Then you factor team record and equal impact metrics and it just becomes obvious.

Jokic is a little bit better as a player (not a lot) this year (and especially past years) but SGA is more likely to win MVP. It isn’t just voter fatigue here. That downplays the legitimacy of how special of a season SGA is having

[Jaqua92]

SGA is a flat out MVP caliber player and I will applaud him if he wins, but this race is all about Jokic vs voter fatigue, because there is no player in the world better than Jokic is right now.

He’s far greater than MVP caliber though. SGA himself is having a top 10 all time season statistically. That’s where the floor of this conversation should move to. So if we say Jokic is having a top 5 all time season, SGA is having a 5-10 ranked season. Then you factor team record and equal impact metrics and it just becomes obvious.

Jokic is a little bit better as a player (not a lot) this year (and especially past years) but SGA is more likely to win MVP. It isn’t just voter fatigue here. That downplays the legitimacy of how special of a season SGA is having

Come on

[Jaqua92]

Read on Twitter

Pretty damn accurate. SGA has one letdown game or Jokic has a supernova game and that’s what causes these big yo-yos. But I’m confident SGA finishes this barring injury. He’s got that MJ/Kobe competitiveness. He may claim he doesn’t care… but he’s not about to lose MVP this close to the end. Don’t be surprised if he averages 40 for the month or goes for 50 a bunch more times.

I remember just a couple months ago he hadn’t scored over 42… and suddenly he has like four recent 50+ games including multiple in 3 quarters.

Jesus man. This is about Jokic vs voter fatigue.

These takes of yours are beyond outrageous. And he is not the competitor MJ or Kobe was.

Bye bye

[Special_Puppy]

The Anomaly will snatch that MVP. He’s a boy gone wild

[Special_Puppy]

Did Luka lead Jokic in any advanced stats last year? Why is there this narrative that Luka was basically robbed of MVP last year?

[Manimal]

The biggest difference is that Jokic doesn't give a **** about the MVP (and would actually prefer not to win), where as these other guys are making it a true priority. And yet Jokic is still right there at the top every single season...that's how incredible he is.

[Jaqua92]

Did Luka lead Jokic in any advanced stats last year? Why is there this narrative that Luka was basically robbed of MVP last year?

Non

[Jaqua92]

The Anomaly will snatch that MVP. He’s a boy gone wild

No shot.

But if the Celtics win it all again next year Tatum is gonna win it by default - career aura kinda mvp

[Doctor MJ]

Did Luka lead Jokic in any advanced stats last year? Why is there this narrative that Luka was basically robbed of MVP last year?

I would say no, but would also say that by some statistically-based perspective, he clearly must have, because there were more posts in this thread last year about Luka than anyone else. I can say this confidently now because I said it back then, while also maintaining that Jokic & SGA were clearly the only two serious candidates the whole time, and that of course bearing out with the actual MVP vote.

Now though, I should acknowledge that there's absolutely a fan-based emotional identity involved here with all the "stans" of all of these guys. I would say that of the 3 Lukas are the most extreme followed by Jokic, and then followed by SGA, in part because they were generally established first. SGA's stanbase is essentially just out of start-up status while Jokic's hit primetime with the MVPs, and meanwhile Luka - from the same draft class as SGA - hit megastar status in 2020, earliest of the bunch.

To be clear, this isn't meant to imply "therefore SGA is the MVP". The relative infancy of his own fanbase is a thing regardless of whether he deserves the award.

[Doctor MJ]

When it comes to putting up boxscore stats there hasn't been a better more mind boggling player since prime Wilt. I still value SGA more as the engine of a historically great team with absurd impact metrics but Jokic's numbers might overwhelm even that

I think this is a keen insight and I agree with all of it, including your speculation of voter influence, but we should also remember that Wilt didn't win the MVP in his most gaudy statistical season.

ftr, I believe that Bill Russell deserved MVP in most years over Wilt, but I wouldn't want to infer the analogy that therefore SGA should win the award. With Wilt there was an actual issue with his impact, but with Jokic he really may be the most impactful player of the season and if he isn't, it's just because Shai is slightly more so.

[Manimal]

It's wild that team record will decide this race, especially since the Thunder would still win 50 games even without SGA. Meanwhile the Nuggets would be lucky to win 25 without Jokic.

[falcolombardi]

It's wild that team record will decide this race, especially since the Thunder would still win 50 games even without SGA. Meanwhile the Nuggets would be lucky to win 25 without Jokic.

Do you actually believe okc without shai would win as many games as denver with jokic or are actually trolling

[Manimal]

It's wild that team record will decide this race, especially since the Thunder would still win 50 games even without SGA. Meanwhile the Nuggets would be lucky to win 25 without Jokic.

Do you actually believe okc without shai would win as many games as denver with jokic or are actually trolling

OKC with Jokic instead of SGA wins 75 games this season. Denver with SGA instead of Jokic wins 44 games.

[BigGargamel]

SGA is a flat out MVP caliber player and I will applaud him if he wins, but this race is all about Jokic vs voter fatigue, because there is no player in the world better than Jokic is right now.

He’s far greater than MVP caliber though. SGA himself is having a top 10 all time season statistically. That’s where the floor of this conversation should move to. So if we say Jokic is having a top 5 all time season, SGA is having a 5-10 ranked season. Then you factor team record and equal impact metrics and it just becomes obvious.

Jokic is a little bit better as a player (not a lot) this year (and especially past years) but SGA is more likely to win MVP. It isn’t just voter fatigue here. That downplays the legitimacy of how special of a season SGA is having

It's team record and voter fatigue. I wish you people could just admit that and stop acting like it's anything else. Cherry pick whatever obscure nerd stat you want to.

SGA will win MVP, and you'll be happy. It wouldn't be the first time that someone new got the MVP because of team success. Just don't act like he's having as impactful or important of a season. That's the stuff that really should stop.

[DrModesty]

Did Luka lead Jokic in any advanced stats last year? Why is there this narrative that Luka was basically robbed of MVP last year?

I would say no, but would also say that by some statistically-based perspective, he clearly must have, because there were more posts in this thread last year about Luka than anyone else. I can say this confidently now because I said it back then, while also maintaining that Jokic & SGA were clearly the only two serious candidates the whole time, and that of course bearing out with the actual MVP vote.

Now though, I should acknowledge that there's absolutely a fan-based emotional identity involved here with all the "stans" of all of these guys. I would say that of the 3 Lukas are the most extreme followed by Jokic, and then followed by SGA, in part because they were generally established first. SGA's stanbase is essentially just out of start-up status while Jokic's hit primetime with the MVPs, and meanwhile Luka - from the same draft class as SGA - hit megastar status in 2020, earliest of the bunch.

To be clear, this isn't meant to imply "therefore SGA is the MVP". The relative infancy of his own fanbase is a thing regardless of whether he deserves the award.

If I remember correctly, half of the posts on the MVP threads last year were Bob8 fixating on +/-