Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary

[corona]

2012 Denver: Off 3rd in league, defense 20th... 47 win pace
2013 Denver: Off 5th, defense 11th ... 57 win pace

2014 Denver changes:

Subtracts the two best defenders on the team by DRAPM -- Iguodala (+3.33) and Koufus (+2.40)

Adds Hickson -- has never had a positive on off on any team he has ever been on for even a portion of a season, shows an opponent per of over 20, and allows .94 ppp on post ups etc. (Did somehow get a slightly positive DRAPM last year which is crazy, +.4 and the year before -0.6.) But put simply, is bad on defense.

Adds Nate Robinson -- really large negative DRAPM last two years (-3.12 worst on Chicago and -2.5)

Adds Foye -- really large negative DRAPM last two years (-2.17 second worst on Utah and -2.40)

Increases role of Fournier -- really large negative DRAPM (-2.26 third worst on team, although within .1 of worst)

You can show the same story with just about every defensive stat out there. It is as if every change Denver did was about either proving stats wrong, or decimating its defense. Looking at the colection of players, no one is bad in general, so it is easy to think they continue to perform similarly. But if you look at how the players match up specifically on offense and defense, Denver looks to have a problem even if the new coach and new system incorporates together smoothly. Dropping the team's defense back to 20th if not worse around 23rd or so in the league would easily drop the win percentage back down to closer to 45 then 55.

there's no question that losing iguodala hurts the defense individually.

i'd say koufos is more a statistical anomaly, considering he always had an average or negative DRAPM before being inserted as a starter. and you should also consider that mcgee who has been a career positive in that regard will see an increase in minutes with the koufos departure.

robinson's minutes will likely partially replace andre miller, who was essentially 3rd worst of rotation players. corey brewer who was a negative has also departed. i don't expect foye/robinson to play nearly the minutes they did in past seasons, based on the depth of denvers roster and their limitations. and i don't think 1800 possessions as a rookie in rather sporadic minutes is enough to judge fournier on. he may turn out to be a terrible defender, but i didn't see it...just think its rather quick to pull out advanced +/- stats for him.

i do think you're underselling what different coaching philosophy and different schemes can do for a team defense as a whole, especially one that played at such a fast pace and more or less neglected defensive rebounding. maybe i just have more confidence in brian shaw than most. the way indiana was playing defense last year was legit.....and if david west can go from a career - drapm to +2.3 in a season and a half and hibbert can take a significant leap up as well, then i'm not gonna be stressing about the loses of karl, koufos, iguodala and brewer for a young, energized team where guys are going to be competing for minutes.

[HartfordWhalers]

2012 Denver: Off 3rd in league, defense 20th... 47 win pace
2013 Denver: Off 5th, defense 11th ... 57 win pace

2014 Denver changes:

Subtracts the two best defenders on the team by DRAPM -- Iguodala (+3.33) and Koufus (+2.40)

Adds Hickson -- has never had a positive on off on any team he has ever been on for even a portion of a season, shows an opponent per of over 20, and allows .94 ppp on post ups etc. (Did somehow get a slightly positive DRAPM last year which is crazy, +.4 and the year before -0.6.) But put simply, is bad on defense.

Adds Nate Robinson -- really large negative DRAPM last two years (-3.12 worst on Chicago and -2.5)

Adds Foye -- really large negative DRAPM last two years (-2.17 second worst on Utah and -2.40)

Increases role of Fournier -- really large negative DRAPM (-2.26 third worst on team, although within .1 of worst)

You can show the same story with just about every defensive stat out there. It is as if every change Denver did was about either proving stats wrong, or decimating its defense. Looking at the colection of players, no one is bad in general, so it is easy to think they continue to perform similarly. But if you look at how the players match up specifically on offense and defense, Denver looks to have a problem even if the new coach and new system incorporates together smoothly. Dropping the team's defense back to 20th if not worse around 23rd or so in the league would easily drop the win percentage back down to closer to 45 then 55.

there's no question that losing iguodala hurts the defense individually.

i'd say koufos is more a statistical anomaly, considering he always had an average or negative DRAPM before being inserted as a starter. and you should also consider that mcgee who has been a career positive in that regard will see an increase in minutes with the koufos departure.

robinson's minutes will likely partially replace andre miller, who was essentially 3rd worst of rotation players. corey brewer who was a negative has also departed. i don't expect foye/robinson to play nearly the minutes they did in past seasons, based on the depth of denvers roster and their limitations. and i don't think 1800 possessions as a rookie in rather sporadic minutes is enough to judge fournier on. he may turn out to be a terrible defender, but i didn't see it...just think its rather quick to pull out advanced +/- stats for him.

i do think you're underselling what different coaching philosophy and different schemes can do for a team defense as a whole, especially one that played at such a fast pace and more or less neglected defensive rebounding. maybe i just have more confidence in brian shaw than most. the way indiana was playing defense last year was legit.....and if david west can go from a career - drapm to +2.3 in a season and a half and hibbert can take a significant leap up as well, then i'm not gonna be stressing about the loses of karl, koufos, iguodala and brewer for a young, energized team where guys are going to be competing for minutes.

Koufus was positive in 2012 (+1.1) and not that negative in 2011 (-0.6). And the mix of players replacing him between McGee, Mozgov, and Hickson(?) are worse.

Brewer (-.88) was close to average for Denver's defense, and the people replacing him Foye (-2.17) and Fourier (-2.26) are much worse.

Robinson (-3.12) was grotesquely worse then Miller (-1.39), and Miller is still there (and older).

They are all straight up downgrades, accounting for a sizable amount of minutes.


If Denver's defense had been much worse then its talent last season, I could see the reason for the system change based optimism to somewhat counteract the worse players on that side of the ball. But 11th in the league looks pretty good for the squad that Denver had last season. I don't think there is the obvious fat to trim from that performance, even with Iguodala it didn't look like a top 10 defensive squad on paper regardless the coach. So, there is the risk that the system and adjusting to it is (at least for the first year) actually a negative.

[floppymoose]

The loss of Iggy will hurt defense. That's undeniable. But, then again, you get to add someone in his place and see what they give you. You might end up with better spacing while losing defense. You might get more efficient scoring while losing defense. At any rate there will be some offset for the loss.

Or you might discover that there was a reason why Iggy was 23rd in the league last season in his impact on the court, and that you can't replace that just by hoping lesser players pick up the slack.

[GreenRiddler]

Violently disagree with the Spurs ranking and projection.

As much as Timmy MIGHT(a cerebral legend like him could absolutely maintain last year's play) decline this season it will be made up for and THEN SOME with KAWHI LEANORD's improvement.

Kawhi is a STUD already and scary thing is he's only 22.
Last season he was 3rd to LAST on his team in Usage%. No way he's used that little next season with his breakout Playoffs/Finals performance.

He's going to be a much bigger part of the Offense this season according to POP next season, further lightening the already low and well managed workload for Timmy D(only 30mpg/69 GP with plenty of days off in the RS last year)..


Also Deshaun Thomas is not the backup SF he's most likely D-league/going overseas.
That's going to be a by committee thing Marco, Manu, and Green.

The reason why his usage is so low is cause he is best served as a gritty D first swingman. He isn't a finness player, not a great three point shooter even though he had good regular season #'s and isn't a ball handler creator. I don't see him as much more then a 13ppg player in a good Pop system. So he can't replace Manu like the guy below you posted and he won't help much if Timmy regresses.

[GreenRiddler]

As old as the Spurs are.. TD doesn't seem to age and Green and Kawhi will more than make up for any drop off for Manu. Parker is the wild card as he looked gassed by games 6 and 7 of the Finals.. but that's the Finals. I think the Spurs are like the Bulls.. you can put anywhere on that team and they will perform becuase of Pops and the system. Maybe they didn't get any better, and perhaps someone like Indy is better than them, but I can't see them falling this far.

But like you said.. it has to happen sooner or later.

The reason why his usage is so low is cause he is best served as a gritty D first swingman. He isn't a finness player, not a great three point shooter even though he had good regular season #'s and isn't a ball handler creator. I don't see him as much more then a 13ppg player in a good Pop system. So he can't replace Manu and he won't help much if Timmy regresses.

[franktony]

The Spurs will be contenders as long as Tim Duncan plays. It's simple as that.

As for the contenders list, all I can do is laugh sorry.

OKC
Houston
Mempis
Clippers
Indy
Miami
Chicago
BK

and no San Antonio

I will definitely book this thread. I love the fact that SA has always been an underdog, but this is beyond ridiculous. Coming from a jazz fan, not really a surprise tbh.

[floppymoose]

It's all about correctly anticipating Duncan's decline. Manu absolutely showed signs of decline last season. Eventually Duncan will as well. When he does, the Spurs will move down. Is this the year? I certainly couldn't tell you, but it doesn't seem outlandish to think it could happen.

And I don't think jazzfan's opinions are colored by what team he roots for. He has a good fantasy basketball track record, and you need to be objective to do that (or at least, more objective than your opponents).

[jazzfan1971]

A lot of this is just gut anyway. I saw HW go into some major stastical analysis above about defensive stats. And I just shrug. I dont' have as much faith in advanced stats as I do my gut. My eyes. My instincts.

Sometimes my instincts are wrong. I was predicting a drop off for Nash for YEARS before it finally happened. But, that's more the exception than the rule.

And I dno't know for sure that my gut isn't biased against Gs. That's a problem. I suspect that there is a little bias there. And I think maybe my ranking reflected that. I certainly won't have them moving up more than one spot in the WC standings, but, they might see a little boost to try and correct for some of my bias.

[jazzfan1971]

Memphis up.

[PhilDMonkey]

Great article, thank you for the post.

The only problem is, putting DEN over GSW is a little bit weird. DEN lost their head coach, the best player and their starting center, then brought in some terrible defenders on their position. I think DEN will win between 40 to 47 games, getting No.8 seed or missing the playoffs.

And for GSW, as long as Curry stays healthy, they won't be lower than the No.6 seed in the west.

[Prospect Dong]

I think your memphis analysis is about right. You could make a case for them over the clippers and the non-heat east teams (probably better team/worse record due to the conference differential), but I think the Rockets and Thunder clearly slot in above them on paper.

Minor tweak - I don't expect Miller to be the primary backup anywhere, but certainly not at sg. I think he'll get his minutes at sf, maybe a few at pf, and Bayless will be the primary backup sg, with Q-Pon taking the minutes he and Allen don't.

As for whether they're a contender: My personal definition is that contending teams should only need to upset one clearly better team on the way to a championship. The heat are clearly better, so they'd probably need an upset in the finals, so they're only a contender if the gap between them and the thunder has narrowed enough (I think the thunder are a little worse so far this offseason) to make it something approaching a toss-up series and if Houston haven't established a clear talent gap.

I could buy us being somewhere close to Houston, while still giving them the edge (because the whole Rockets team, and especially Dwight's health, is a question mark at the very high level we're talking about) but not to the Thunder.

So I think they're not a true contender - maybe "fringe contender".

[floppymoose]

Part of my doubt about GS improvement this season is that it can be argued they over-acheived last season. For instance, they were third in the league in close game winning %. GS was not the 3rd best team, so they won more close games than they should have.

[franktony]

The Spurs won 58 games last year even with their top 4 players (Duncan, Parker, Kawhi, Manu) missing 66 games. They were great even with tons of injuries last year, I don't see a regression coming even if Duncan declines.

Great to see jazz fans without bias.

I don't really care if people think SA will regress, but the arguments are so bad.

The main argument is : Duncan's decline. Here it doesn't matter Pop's system, the rise of other players (Leonard for example) or the fact that he hasn't shown any sign of regression. In fact, he made the all-star game and 1st all-NBA team at the age of 37.
But when we factor Leonard's possible rise, It won't matter because he is a role player in a great solid system.

So basically, if Duncan declines the great system won't matter because he is too important. But if Kawhi improves, it won't matter as well because it's the system that allows him to play great.

See how bad the arguments are?

Sorry, but all I can see here is bias. The only Western team that has an argument over SA is OKC. I fail to see how the rest are better than SA.

[Left*My*Heart]

Part of my doubt about GS improvement this season is that it can be argued they over-acheived last season. For instance, they were third in the league in close game winning %. GS was not the 3rd best team, so they won more close games than they should have.

I'm concerned with their overachieving as well and I struggled all season with how good they truly were.

The close games were in part to allowing big leads to dwindle down to nothing and they had ended up winning in the last seconds. I think a large part of that can be contributed to our youngsters and not knowing how to close out games. They seldom had that killer instinct, to put teams away. Does that get better or worse this season? I would hope it would get better with the addition of Dre and the year of maturity/seasoning the young guys gain.

I take some comfort in their results. They broke through some very tough hurdles last season and during the playoffs.

I think the Warriors are better on paper this season. I think Dre, Speights, Douglas, O'Neal>Jack, Landry, Jefferson, Biedrins.

[jazzfan1971]

Houston up.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Interesting that you have Houston below Indiana. I mean, I'm loving this Indiana team and we'll have to see how Dwight fares, but their lineup scares me.

[jazzfan1971]

I really like what Indy is doing. Houston has the stars now, but, I'm not 100% in love with the surrounding cast. I think they still have work to do.

[Trader_Joe]

Interesting that you have Houston below Indiana. I mean, I'm loving this Indiana team and we'll had to see how Dwight fares, but their lineup scares me.

I think Indiana is the better team too. (I have them #2 overall in the league or interchangeable with SAS)

Indy was better last season (beat them twice by 9 and 10) and bolstered their bench with Watson, Granger, Copeland and Scola.

Houston will be a great team (2nd best in the West IMO), but until they add better fits at PF and PG, I think Indy gets the nod as they have superior depth and superior players at PG, SG and PF.

[Trader_Joe]

You'll hear a lot of names pop up when it comes to top GMs but who has started with less than Morey was given when he took over and has had this level of success? Even Pat Riley would approve.

What did Morey start with in the way of assets/players when he first started?
It would be cool to do a side by side comparison of the roster and picks he had, and what he has now.

[Crackfool]

You'll hear a lot of names pop up when it comes to top GMs but who has started with less than Morey was given when he took over and has had this level of success? Even Pat Riley would approve.

What did Morey start with in the way of assets/players when he first started?
It would be cool to do a side by side comparison of the roster and picks he had, and what he has now.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2007.html

This, more or less. Yao and T-Mac were making max money. His early moves included trading a 2nd rounder for Scola, drafting Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry, trading a 1st for Artest, and trading Alston for Kyle Lowry. After 2009, Yao and T-Mac were essentially max contracts sitting on the injury reserve.