2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[PeptoKlepto]

If we're taking narrative out of the equation (which I understand we can't do), Steph should be on his way to his 3rd MVP.

[cpower]

I am calling it now, the MVP is coming from the WEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Starboy]

Westbrook is clearly going out of his way to get rebounds, which is fine, but I don't think it's ridiculously impressive to grab 3 contested rebounds on 27 rebound attempts.

Not enough to overshadow taking 27 shots to hit 27 points at least...


I'm under impression that he would be a much better player if he took less shots and put in the same effort into defending as he does into not defending and chasing rebounds now.

Its impressive nonetheless that he even attempted 27 rebounds...crazy motor.

IDK where that number even comes from. According to NBA.com Hassan leads the NBA in rebound chances at 24 a game, Westbrook at 14.8. Not trying to take Westbrook down or anything, I just don't understand these numbers he's giving.

Talking about the game yesterday....

[RCM88x]

If we're taking narrative out of the equation (which I understand we can't do), Steph should be on his way to his 3rd MVP.

If we took narrative out of the MVP voting, then Harden would have won in 2015.

[PeptoKlepto]

If we're taking narrative out of the equation (which I understand we can't do), Steph should be on his way to his 3rd MVP.

If we took narrative out of the MVP voting, then Harden would have won in 2015.

What narrative is that? Wasn't the narrative at the time that Harden was "doing more with less"?

And if you took that narrative out, Steph Curry still would've/should've been the MVP. He had Harden beat in almost every single advanced category, as well as leading the Warriors to a franchise (and league) best 67 wins.

[RCM88x]

If we're taking narrative out of the equation (which I understand we can't do), Steph should be on his way to his 3rd MVP.

If we took narrative out of the MVP voting, then Harden would have won in 2015.

What narrative is that? Wasn't the narrative at the time that Harden was "doing more with less"?

And if you took that narrative out, Steph Curry still would've/should've been the MVP. He had Harden beat in almost every single advanced category, as well as leading the Warriors to a franchise (and league) best 67 wins.

Doing more with less isn't a narrative, it is a fact.

[bondom34]

Like I said, It can be looked at as stat padding if he's sagging off or leaving his responsibilities on the perimeter to grab more rebounds. He doesn't really play within a team a concept a lot of the time.

Except the defense is better w/ him on court and he's been a better defender than the other MVP guards. Again, if you want to take down other players to prop up your guy, fine. But its not a valid argument if it isn't stat padding. He's not, so it's not. I'm out, I'll let everyone argue for Curry/Harden/Lebron now.

You can put in a weak defensive player into a strong defensive line-up. This has been proven many many many times. He's absolutely not a better defender than CP3, Wall, Curry or Lowry. Thomas puts in effort, but he has severe height limitations. Westbrook has all the athletic ability and none of the effort.

But when every lineup he's in is strong defensively....maybe he's actually not a bad defender. He's clearly better than Thomas Harden and this year's Curry statistically.

[bondom34]

Westbrook is clearly going out of his way to get rebounds, which is fine, but I don't think it's ridiculously impressive to grab 3 contested rebounds on 27 rebound attempts.

Not enough to overshadow taking 27 shots to hit 27 points at least...


I'm under impression that he would be a much better player if he took less shots and put in the same effort into defending as he does into not defending and chasing rebounds now.

Oh and all this is wrong so much but it doesn't even matter.

He's been a more impactful player than Curry or Harden this season and the rebounding thing is BS. His contested % is similar to other guards and wings, and his efficiency is pretty good considering volume. TS is not an ultimate measure of offense.

[PeptoKlepto]

If we took narrative out of the MVP voting, then Harden would have won in 2015.

What narrative is that? Wasn't the narrative at the time that Harden was "doing more with less"?

And if you took that narrative out, Steph Curry still would've/should've been the MVP. He had Harden beat in almost every single advanced category, as well as leading the Warriors to a franchise (and league) best 67 wins.

Doing more with less isn't a narrative, it is a fact.

Fact, huh? Interesting, considering the fact that Curry tripled Harden's on court rating, and their off court rating was a marginal difference of 1.2. Please, do explain.

I'm also interested in the notion that it was narrative that propelled Curry to win MVP over Harden, and not the fact that he had a better PER, TS%, net rating, RPM, +/-, assist rate, turnover rate, WS/48, BPM and VORP than Harden.

[RCM88x]

What narrative is that? Wasn't the narrative at the time that Harden was "doing more with less"?

And if you took that narrative out, Steph Curry still would've/should've been the MVP. He had Harden beat in almost every single advanced category, as well as leading the Warriors to a franchise (and league) best 67 wins.

Doing more with less isn't a narrative, it is a fact.

Fact, huh? Interesting, considering the fact that Curry tripled Harden's on court rating, and their off court rating was a marginal difference of 1.2. Please, do explain.

I'm also interested in the notion that it was narrative that propelled Curry to win MVP over Harden, and not the fact that he had a better PER, TS%, net rating, RPM, +/-, assist rate, turnover rate, WS/48, BPM and VORP than Harden.

You don't think that those stats have to do with him having a better supporting cast? Swap the two and I don't think that Curry would still have been better in those categories.

By the way, Houston +/- with Harden Off: -2.0/100poss (11.2mpg average)
GS +/- with Curry Off: -1.3/100 poss (15.3 mpg average)

Harden was responsible for more Wins in RPM, 20.63/56 to 20.07/67.

Not that this really matters. But if you want to go and argue that Harden had a better supporting cast in '15 than Curry, be my guest.

[PeptoKlepto]

Doing more with less isn't a narrative, it is a fact.

Fact, huh? Interesting, considering the fact that Curry tripled Harden's on court rating, and their off court rating was a marginal difference of 1.2. Please, do explain.

I'm also interested in the notion that it was narrative that propelled Curry to win MVP over Harden, and not the fact that he had a better PER, TS%, net rating, RPM, +/-, assist rate, turnover rate, WS/48, BPM and VORP than Harden.

You don't think that those stats have to do with him having a better supporting cast? Swap the two and I don't think that Curry would still have been better in those categories.

By the way, Houston +/- with Harden Off: -2.0/100poss (11.2mpg average)
GS +/- with Curry Off: -1.3/100 poss (15.3 mpg average)

Harden was responsible for more Wins in RPM, 20.63/56 to 20.07/67.

Not that this really matters. But if you want to go and argue that Harden had a better supporting cast in '15 than Curry, be my guest.

Puhleaze. Supporting cast is becoming a ridiculous argument at this point. If it's all about supporting cast, you might as well just give the MVP to the best player on the worst team then and be done with it. If not, it's all subjective and there are other facts and figures that should have more weight, and the notion that we should punish players for being a part of great teams is nonsense.

Even then, Curry led the Warriors to what was at the time their best franchise record and a league best 67 wins. He did it with a brand new, rookie HC and a brand new system. Bogut missed 15 games and the games he played he was on minutes restriction. David Lee missed 33 games. Fetus Ezeli missed 36 games. Harrison Barnes was hot garbage barely averaging 10 points per game. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson weren't anywhere near what they are today, and were still developing young players learning Kerr's scheme.

Despite all of that, despite Curry leading the franchise to one of the best seasons ever (67 wins), despite Curry having better stats virtually across the board than Harden (PER, TS%, on/off +/-, RPM, BPM, VORP, WS/48, assist and turnover ratios, etc.)...you think it was NARRATIVE that won Curry the MVP?

Okay sure.

[K_chile22]

This thread has become 'look how good Curry is! We should talk about Curry more! Curry!'

[PeptoKlepto]

This thread has become 'look how good Curry is! We should talk about Curry more! Curry!'

No, but people are completely ignoring him because the narrative is against him.

But I digress.

[K_chile22]

This thread has become 'look how good Curry is! We should talk about Curry more! Curry!'

No, but people are completely ignoring him because the narrative is against him.

But I digress.

The last 3 or 4 pages are nearly nothing but Curry. Everything about other players gets flipped into a Curry discussion.

[PeptoKlepto]

This thread has become 'look how good Curry is! We should talk about Curry more! Curry!'

No, but people are completely ignoring him because the narrative is against him.

But I digress.

The last 3 or 4 pages are nearly nothing but Curry. Everything about other players gets flipped into a Curry discussion.

My bad - if you feel that wait I'll try and refrain from discussing Curry as much.

[K_chile22]

No, but people are completely ignoring him because the narrative is against him.

But I digress.

The last 3 or 4 pages are nearly nothing but Curry. Everything about other players gets flipped into a Curry discussion.

My bad - if you feel that wait I'll try and refrain from discussing Curry as much.

Not trying to single you out, there are others, you continue to do you lol I'm just getting Curry fatigue

[Starboy]

Obviously Westbrook is going to have good defensive on/off stats. The bench lineup that plays the most is Christon, Abrines, Grant, Lauvergne and Kanter which is a collection of atrocious defenders that have a 130 DRTG..Westbrook basically never plays without Robinson, Oladipo or Kanter out there.

Westbrook is clearly going out of his way to get rebounds, which is fine, but I don't think it's ridiculously impressive to grab 3 contested rebounds on 27 rebound attempts.

Not enough to overshadow taking 27 shots to hit 27 points at least...


I'm under impression that he would be a much better player if he took less shots and put in the same effort into defending as he does into not defending and chasing rebounds now.

Oh and all this is wrong so much but it doesn't even matter.

He's been a more impactful player than Curry or Harden this season and the rebounding thing is BS. His contested % is similar to other guards and wings, and his efficiency is pretty good considering volume. TS is not an ultimate measure of offense.

"This is wrong, that is bs and he's the best."

Nice.

[DubTheVanDamage]

Not advocating for any Warriors for MVP because I don't think one will win it. I have Harden as 1a and Westbrook at 1b at this moment in time, with team success nudging Harden above Westbrook. But that's interpreting MVP as "Best Statistical Season" and not "Best Player Award".

However, for all of the valid Westbrook and Harden arguments, I'm going to call out a few that aren't:

Harden was responsible for more Wins in RPM, 20.63/56 to 20.07/67.

Congratulations, you win the "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics Award for Intellectual Dishonesty" for this gem. You somehow twisted RPM, which favored Steph that year, into an argument for Harden. RPM Wins is RPM adjusted for possessions -- so, while Steph had a higher RPM that year, Harden played one more game (and played more minutes) so he barely edged Curry in "RPM Wins".

So, RPM, WS/48, BPM and VORP prefer Curry, while WS (again, minutes/games played) and some on/off stat that shows GS had a better bench than Houston is your argument? Oh, yeah, and RPM "Wins". Let's not even talk defense. Yet you're trying to snatch Curry's 2015 MVP out of his hands -- just brutal. Stick to 2017.

But when every lineup he's in is strong defensively....maybe he's actually not a bad defender.

Let's look at the Thunder's top 5 lineups (minutes, offense, defense, +/-):
1 Westbrook-Oladipo-Roberson-Sabonis-Adams 510.8 1.05 1.03 +15
2 Westbrook-Morrow-Roberson-Sabonis-Adams 111.3 1.06 1.13 -11
3 Christon-Abrines-Grant-Lauvergne-Kanter 81.7 1.15 1.30 -30
4 Westbrook-Oladipo-Roberson-Kanter-Adams 80.0 1.13 1.01 +28
5 Westbrook-Oladipo-Roberson-Grant-Adams 74.7 1.09 1.06 -15

And the Warriors:
1 Curry-Thompson-Durant-Green-Pachulia 507.6 1.24 1.00 +254
2 Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Durant-Green 185.8 1.28 1.02 +115
3 Livingston-Thompson-Iguodala-Durant-West 165.9 1.15 1.02 +45
4 Curry-Thompson-Durant-Green-McGee 74.2 1.31 0.87 +72
5 Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Green-McGee 60.7 1.34 1.20 +14

I wouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, small sample size and all (but, wow, no wonder Christon is back in the D League and Westbrook's on/off numbers look so good) -- but I don't know how you can say that every lineup with Westbrook is good defensively.

He's clearly better than Thomas Harden and this year's Curry statistically.

How so? DRPM has Curry at 0.07 and Russ at -0.04 -- while it's close, it certainly doesn't show WB as better. If we look at FG differential, Curry is -1.5% overall, 0.8% on 3 pointers and -1.6% on 2 pointers while Westbrook is 5.7% overall, 1.1% on 3 pointers and an absolutely ghastly 10.5% on 2 pointers. Russ is also allowing 2.2 FGA within 5 feet while Curry is at 1.6. Curry gets more steals, neither gets many blocks (although WB does lead there 0.4 to 0.2).

Sure, Westbrook has a great DBPM, which isn't surprising considering defensive rebounding is a key component of the stat. But name some stats that aren't rebounding-based that show Russ as the better defender.

I'll give you Harden and Thomas, though!

He's been a more impactful player than Curry or Harden this season and the rebounding thing is BS. His contested % is similar to other guards and wings, and his efficiency is pretty good considering volume. TS is not an ultimate measure of offense.

First, for rebounding, we've been through this before -- his coach and teammates have said it -- he's getting rebounds that his big men are boxing out. Russ is 12th in rebounding in the NBA, his contested % is 20.7 -- of the other top 20 rebounders, the next lowest is 30.7%. If you want to say that Westbrook rebounds like a guard but does it really well, I'm with you.

As for which player has had the most impact this year, it's really difficult to say because most of the metrics say different things. Some stats love Russ, some love Harden and others go for Curry.

Before you say this is a paralipses, I think Russ has done a lot of great things -- and I think there are a lot of great arguments for him. But he's not the best at everything and his game has some warts.

I love his offense -- even though the efficiency is ugly at times, the reality is that every stat says he is undeniably massively helping his team. The team can do nothing without him but, with him on the court, TS% be damned, they're good. Getting to the line as much as he does not only improves his efficiency but gives defenses fits. He's a good passer and would be well served by having better shooters in place around him. Russ passes the eye test with flying colors -- he's kind of like Kobe in that, while he'll shoot his out of games sometimes, he'll win more than he loses. His rebounding, while statistically inflated, is still impressive, especially on the offensive end. Despite the fact that it should result in a number of transition baskets against, that doesn't appear to be the case (with the Thunder having the 4th best transition defense the last time I checked).

But his defense is putrid at times. He shoots too many 3 pointers. The stats say he may be well served by involving his teammates more as some are more efficient than he is when he's on the floor. But, to me, the biggest hurdle he faces is team record. Kobe didn't get an MVP for scoring 35PPG with Smush Parker as his PG and I'm not sure RW will win unless the Thunder pick up the pace a bit. I am also concerned that he won't be able to keep up this pace all season. But he's a terrific player that, when not arguing with the officials, is fun to watch!

[bondom34]

...

If you're honestly comparing a defense with Durant and Green with anyone else, I'm not sure where to start. Curry's defense is not in any way better than Westbrook. He can't guard man to man and isn't that good otherwise. They're similar by most any measure (sorry, I was incorrect, Curry's DRPM now slightly is ahead). But he's in now way better man to man and team goes the same so whatever you're arguing could be made for Curry as well.

He's on a stacked roster and can do cute shimmies all over the place because he has freedom on that team to do so, and yet he's not having the offensive impact of Westbrook. He's great at chomping a mouth piece though!

As for "impact" generally that term is used for Plus/minus data (RAPM/RPM). In which case Russ has had the most impact. BPM, same.

[jonjames]

Westbrook has no chance of winning MVP. None at all. He wasn't even voted as a starter in the ASG this year. His team is just not good enough for him to win. The MVP is going to come down to Leonard and Harden. The MVP typically goes to a team with a top two seed. What helps Harden's case is that his raw stats look really impressive and Houston will likely finish around 54-56 wins which is better than what they finished last season at 41 wins.