Strepbacter wrote:The question you should ask yourself isn't, "why didn't Bryant accumulate more stats?"
The question you should ask yourself is, "why the **** should I care if his PER and BPM isn't higher if he's helping his team and having as much as impact guys with way bigger box-scores?"
After all, the point of the game is to win. It's not to to put up the highest possible PER and WS.
And we have mountains upon mountains of evidence that has Prime Kobe having as much impact as guys who more throwing up bigger box-scores. And here's the other thing. e was great at making very great impact on very great teams, which is the ultimate litmus test for any star and incredibly impressive, but unfortunately the Bryant hating dolts around here and elsewhere are too busy worrying about crap like PERz! and WSz! to understand this.
Some guys are as good as their box-score, some are worse, and some are better.
Bryant was clearly in the latter group during his peak/prime, and the impact stats back that up.
And the only advanced stats that really matter (adjusted +/- ,RAPM, impact stats) have him looking amazing in his prime (01-10 )
He has the BEST 2-year scaled offensive APM average behind only Nash and LeBron (and he's .1 points away from Bron: )http://www.backpicks.com/2018/04/13/goat-meta-thoughts-and-longevity/
Here's a ten-year RAPM from 2002-2011:
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapmVirtually tied for #3 overall and the guy ahead by .1 (Wade) isn't even remotely close in terms of minutes played (Kobe played 29783 min over this sample. Wade? 20540. A difference of nearly ten thousand!).
So he's #3 overall, and only KG and LeBron are ahead. He's ahead of Duncan, Dirk, CP3, Nash, etc.He's #1 in ORAPM (tied with LBJ..except Bryant played more than 4200+ more minutes over this sample)
Again, here he's ahead of Dirk, Nash, Wade, CP3, Duncan, etc.
So he may merely look phenomenal in the box-score based advanced stats, but anybody who understands the game will tell you that the box-score captures only a small silver of player impact, and once you get to the impact stats...he looks amazing.
And what's particularly impressive about Bryant is that he made astronomical impact on great teams and next to some other stars. It's easy for a superstar to take a horrible team and get them to mediocrity, or turning a decent team into a good one, but making HUGE impact on amazing teams/ strong contenders is much more impressive, and so the fact that this his impact is at this level while playing with Shaq from 02-04 (on teams that weren't built/around him and while playing with another superstar whose biggest strength was also scoring, so certainly not close to the ideal situation to make his impact) and then anchoring the contending teams of 2008-2011 (the 08 were one of the strongest non-champion in history and GOAT level with Pau, and the 09 Lakers were one of the best teams in history and statistically one of the strongest champions ever, and obviously the 2010 Lakers were the champs) is extremely impressive
Yeah, and the other thing? He wasn’t even in the ideal situation to make max impact for nearly half his prime! He was playing with another 1st-tier superstar who shared the exact same major strength as him, and the team and system certainly wasn’t built around him, which makes his impact numbers/WOWY even more impressive! Look at CP3/Blake Griffin - both of them have shown their ability to carry the team in the absence of the other, but Blake's ORAPM is somewhat small for a player of his immense skill, and it's because his greatest skill (playmaking from the PF position) just isn't quite as relevant with a generational playmaker such as CP3 on the court. Or even Dirk/Nash - both of them seemed just fine after Nash left Dallas, and if anything, Nash's impact ballooned. It was due to his teammates - Dirk/Finley were decent shot creators on their own accord, certainly better than say, Stoudemire/Marion. But Stoudemire/Marion were excellent finishers, and the type of player that thrive off the shot creation of a PG like Nash. Both of them experienced notable efficiency drop-offs after they stopped playing with Nash, whereas Dirk (a superior shot creator/isolation threat in general) was just fine without him, and this is likely to impact your RAPM numbers - you're not always necessarily "better" but sometimes your team is plain more reliant on you. Not that Nash didn't improve, because he did, but I don't think his ability as a player really transformed from "low level all star" to "all time offensive GOAT" - it was just as much related to how reliant his new team was on him…so the fact Kobe comes out looking like this is remarkable to anyone with a brain.
And you what else? That 2002-2011 study does basically cover Bryant's prime and that's why it's the one to use BUT it doesn't even include his remarkable 2001 season.
Here's the RAPM from that season (playoffs and reg season included)
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AABLySVPmcZXb0uiGPEk53fpa/2001.txt?dl=0He's #2 among all superstars behind only Duncan. He's #2 in minute-adjusted RAPM overall/among all players(williams (lol) played 1800+ less min and wasn't in bryant's universe anyway, and stockton played nearly 1000 less min)...he's ahead of freaking peak Shaq
Duncan: 5.52
Bryant: 4.39
Shaq: 4.37
Well they're essentially tied but that's still remarkable...and again...making a horrible team decent or mediocre...or a decent team into good one...thats impressive but it's not close to as impressive as making astronomical impact on GOAT level teams, one of the three best teams in history, and the best playoff team in history BY FAR (they went 15-1 with a SRS of nearly 20!.)
In fact, he had the highest recorded post-season +/- EVER.
Curry 15 - 166
Ginobili 14 - 181
James 13 - 129
James 12 - 199
Dirk 11 - 170
Kobe 10 - 98
Kobe 09 - 181
Garnett 08 - 184
Duncan 07 - 82
Wade 06 - 134
Duncan 03 - 172
Shaq 02 - 118
Shaq 01 - 186
Kobe 01 - 213
In fact, the combined SRS of the teams they faced/their competition was higher than any team in modern NBA history outside the 95 Rockets).
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/4fu6hy/what_were_the_hardest_and_easiest_championship/1 1995 Houston Rockets 23.96
2 2001 Los Angeles Lakers 22.15
3 1997 Chicago Bulls 20.82
4 2002 Los Angeles Lakers 20.77
5 2000 Los Angeles Lakers 18.79
6 2011 Dallas Mavericks 18.43
7 2014 San Antonio Spurs 18.16
8 1994 Houston Rockets 17.86
9 1993 Chicago Bulls 17.77
10 2010 Los Angeles Lakers 16.92
11 2003 San Antonio Spurs 16.6
12 1996 Chicago Bulls 16.5
13 1998 Chicago Bulls 16.31
14 2009 Los Angeles Lakers 15.65
15 2007 San Antonio Spurs 15.36
16 2005 San Antonio Spurs 15.21
17 1989 Detroit Pistons 13.88
18 2006 Miami Heat 13.82
19 2012 Miami Heat 13.69
20 2015 Golden State Warriors 12.65
21 1992 Chicago Bulls 12.01
22 2004 Detroit Pistons 11.58
23 2008 Boston Celtics 11.25
24 1986 Boston Celtics 10.26
25 1990 Detroit Pistons 9.82
26 1999 San Antonio Spurs 9.63
27 1991 Chicago Bulls 8.99
28 1985 Los Angeles Lakers 8.98
29 1984 Boston Celtics 8.79
30 2013 Miami Heat 8.16
31 1988 Los Angeles Lakers 6.99
32 1987 Los Angeles Lakers 2.97
2001 Lakers 15-1 with the 2nd highest SRS is insane
Bonus: He kinda called the Lakers 01 PS run:
Yeah, we won last year with the offense going through Shaq. But instead of winning series in five and seven games, this year we'll have sweeps."
http://a.espncdn.com/magazine/vol4no02bucher2.html(Notice how Kobe is in with 4 in the top 10, all 5 in the top 15...Jesus)
In fact, Kobe's opponents in the playoffs have an average of around 4.98 SRS.
That's... incredible.
Now let's look at what is widely regarded as his peak (2008)
Now, like I said, making great impact on truly great teams is much more impressive than taking **** teams and turning them mediocre...and as you'll see peak Kobe was (once again) making amazing impact on a truly incredible team...a team that was won 58 games with a 7.5 SRS despite being being the most inury-riddled team in basketball...a team that had a GOAT level offense whenever they had reasonable health, and in fact was GOAT level after the Pau trade, and Kobe was far and away the driving force and the most impactful player.
In 08 Bryant was very widely regarded as the best player in the game despite the measly 24 PER and "advanced stats" that pale in comparison to LBJ/CP3, and yet he put up better offensive +/- than anybody in game outside of Nash (who played a ton less minutes) and in fact had the best minute-adjusted numbers in the entire league along with KG.
nash: +7.26
kobe: +6.29 (
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AACIF1UxAphVjODbTtO57_mia/2008.txt?dl=0
Kobe (24 PER): +6.29
LBJ (30 PER): +5.07
CP3 (30 PER): +3.41
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AACIF1UxAphVjODbTtO57_mia/2008.txt?dl=0I mean, they're not even close despite the gap in the box-score, which just goes to show you how amazing Bryant was and how ridiculous it is to put so much stock in the box-score. And Bryant was doing his thing on a far stronger team and much better offense to boot.
Offensive and Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus : 2007-08
Bryant was#2 in Off Adj +/- Rating
Bryant #1 in Adj +/- Rating
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgxs2bv40jBt6GD7txEUcnItyvax_zUfbTbnx1YXsL4/pubhttp://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/06/03/offensive-and-defensive-adjusted-plus-minus/SWAgR Wins (minute-adjusted RAPM, first available in 2008): #1 in 2008
http://www.gotbuckets.com/The following table shows top 25 players with seasonal highest plus/minus statistics per game adjusted for his team.
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Kobe Bryant’s 2007-08 season performance for Lakers seems the most impressive one. On that year, Lakers’s average +/- statistic per game was -0.66, but Kobe’s was 7.29!
The closest thing we have to impact data throughout history (WOWY) has Kobe looking extremely impressive, and better than many all-timers.
A poster completed a study that measured how well a team did when their star missed games. In other words, if you looked at all of the activity of players moving in and out lineups over the years, whose team changed the most based on a given player’s presence?
It's called WOWY (with and without you)
In other words, if you looked at all of the activity of players moving in and out lineups over the years, whose team changed the most based on a given player’s presence?
Kobe (prime) had one of the highest scores recorded at +6.5.
He's higher than Russell, Kareem, Wilt, Duncan, Shaq, Bird, KG, Dr J, Karl Malone, Barkley, Ewing, Barkley, Pippen, Howard, Durant, CP3, Westbrook, and many other great players
http://www.backpicks.com/2016/09/28/iii-historical-impact-wowyr-60-years-of-plus-minus/And then you look at his raw playoff +/-((as of June 2015)
Duncan: +8.9
KG: +17.6
Bryant: +8.3
Dirk: +1.6
LeBron: +7.3
Wade: +3.7
Nash: +4.8
Pierce: -0.0
Durant: +2.9
Dwight: -3.1
Virtually equal with Duncan, and higher than LBJ, Dirk, Wade, Nash, Pierce, Durant, Dwight, etc.
WOWY DATA NBA History:
Another huge data point.
Over nine prime runs Kobe missed 67 games, and played in 466 games. The Lakers had a contender level 5.66 SRS in the games he played in in that stretch, and were a measly/pedestrian 1.6 SRS in the games he missed. He ranks #27 and is ahead of Jordan, Bill Russell, Kareem, Pippen, Dr.J,Baylor, Dirk, Chris Paul, Charles Barkley, Chamberlain,Dwayne Wade. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cFY3Qk8eLJo8_bKK0z4k8K-A3UpwQRGOCAsrSuUeQl0/edit?pli=1#gid=1342053438
His 2001 run WOWY score is among the very highest recorded.
It ranks #13 on the list (out of 1591 recorded player seasons) at 5.9, and is ahead of any single season from Duncan, Bill Ruseell, KG, Jerry west, Oscar, Shaq, Hakeem, Drexler, Ewing, Bird, etc. That Lakers teams had a 14.2 SRS with Kobe IN, a SRS change of 10.8! from the games he missed.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cFY3Qk8eLJo8_bKK0z4k8K-A3UpwQRGOCAsrSuUeQl0/edit?pli=1#gid=2006095121Basically all the numbers tell us that peak Bryant was having astronomical impact that went well beyond the box-score.
Again, why the **** should I care about the box-score when prime/peak Kobe is helping his team as much and having as much impact (and often more...) as guys with with bigger numbers?
Answer: I shouldn't. And neither should you.
