Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors

[gbball]

This is a hard series to predict.

Raptor force a ton turnovers and Embiid/Harden are two of the worst superstars at coughing it up. Especially Embiid during late game situations in the playoffs.

Raptors also try to win the possession game by crashing the offensive glass for put backs and extra chances...but if Philly goes really big, they can neutralize our offensive rebounding and dare us to make shots.

Between Fred/Trent and OG we should be okay shooting from the perimeter, but our half court offense is pretty bad.

I think Siakam will play well, but the Raptors will probably give up a ton of corner 3s and baseline drives. If Niang, Danny Green, Tobias and Harden are hitting. The Raps will be toast.

Precious has played Philly well since his days in Miami. He'll be an x factor...but I have a feeling he might regress badly on the offensive end this series. Barnes is another x-factor.

This will be a strange series because each team will have clear strengths and weaknesses against the other team.

Philly with more to lose will either flame out under the pressure or dig deep and prove the doubters wrong.

I predict Philadelphia in 6 based on strong performances from Embiid/Harden and Philly's shooters. If that doesn't happen, Raps win convincingly.

[Marty_Budda]

He literally won his minutes in dominant fashion, can't ask the big fella for too much more

He averaged 17/8/3 in that series with an embarrassing 37% field goal percentage. I’d say there’s a lot more he could’ve done.

Read on Twitter

The fact that he was subpar offensively (battling illness) and still just rocked the minutes the way he did confirms he put on an absolutely generational clinic defensively. Two way superstar.

Sounds to me like he was a 1 way superstar in that series. Fact of the matter is, embiid doesn’t have the stamina to play 40+ minutes and guard pascal effectively and put up monster numbers all at the same time.

Everything put aside, embiid is a beast, but that series against the raptors he wasn’t good offensively when that’s what you needed out of him. If he was you would’ve won

[Tony Franciosa]

If Harden plays great and averages 26+ points on good efficiency of better the 76ers easily win. If Harden's current woes continue into the playoffs the 76ers are in deep trouble. Aside from Embiid, there's no one on the 76ers that can go off for 30 easily like Harden, and if harden can't, the 76ers need to rely on Maxey for to help Embiid in scoring.

Maxey can go off for 30 if Harden's hitting in the rest of his game (dishing assists, finding open dudes), but he needs to prove he can do it in the post-season now.

[bisme37]

Reminder to please not get into personal feelings about Thybulle's vax status. We can discuss the impact of his absence but passing judgment on him in either direction is just going to get people heated and get the thread locked. And we can't lock it and have no thread for the series, obviously. Thank you.

[T_Brandon]

If FVL plays Philly in 5 - if he doesn’t Philly in 6 or 7

[stormi]

He averaged 17/8/3 in that series with an embarrassing 37% field goal percentage. I’d say there’s a lot more he could’ve done.

Read on Twitter

The fact that he was subpar offensively (battling illness) and still just rocked the minutes the way he did confirms he put on an absolutely generational clinic defensively. Two way superstar.

Sounds to me like he was a 1 way superstar in that series. Fact of the matter is, embiid doesn’t have the stamina to play 40+ minutes and guard pascal effectively and put up monster numbers all at the same time.

Wait, that's exactly what he did. Don't you remember that series? Siakam lit Tobias up for 30 in game 1 and then from games 2-7 Embiid trailed Siakam around while Harris marked Gasol in the paint.

I also am less concerned with Embiid's ability to play huge minutes or his scoring and more concerned with the Sixers ability to defend as a cohesive unit and Doc Rivers' stubbornness. A defensive personnel consisting of Harden, Maxey, Harris, DAJ, Niang, Milton is extremely problematic and not conducive to long term success.

It's also why I wanted the Raptors -> Heat pathing opposed to the other side of the bracket with Tatum/Giannis/KD in it. No real scoring superstars that we'll have to run into for a while - barring we don't crash and burn.

Good luck dude. Sorta.

[Exp0sed]

If Harden plays great and averages 26+ points on good efficiency of better the 76ers easily win. If Harden's current woes continue into the playoffs the 76ers are in deep trouble. Aside from Embiid, there's no one on the 76ers that can go off for 30 easily like Harden, and if harden can't, the 76ers need to rely on Maxey for to help Embiid in scoring.

I think They can in fact, rely on Maxey for that. he can easily go off, especially from 3 on huge volume

They will def need to rely on him for that, Harden isn't gonna suddenly look completely different, no switch to flip there

He has been awesome for the Sixers, as a facilitator and as some1 who can control the pace of the game but no way he's gonna suddenly show MVP harden abilities..He is much better than Simmons even in his current form and will be integral to their offense as the main facilitator, a role he is still one of the best in the league at but as for scoring..they will rely on Maxey indeed, Kid's got it!

[Vampirate]

If Harden plays great and averages 26+ points on good efficiency of better the 76ers easily win. If Harden's current woes continue into the playoffs the 76ers are in deep trouble. Aside from Embiid, there's no one on the 76ers that can go off for 30 easily like Harden, and if harden can't, the 76ers need to rely on Maxey for to help Embiid in scoring.

Maxey can go off for 30 if Harden's hitting in the rest of his game (dishing assists, finding open dudes), but he needs to prove he can do it in the post-season now.

How Maxey went from a 30% 3 point shooter to a 42% 3 point shooter in 1 season is kind of beyond me.

It's normal to expect improvement, maybe even a 4-5% improvement, but a 12% improvement on higher volume speaks of an outlier improvement.

[aminiaturebuddha]

He literally won his minutes in dominant fashion, can't ask the big fella for too much more

He averaged 17/8/3 in that series with an embarrassing 37% field goal percentage. I’d say there’s a lot more he could’ve done.

Read on Twitter

That's game 7. That ended in regulation. That means in the 3 minutes he sat the Sixers got stabbed for a net negative 12 point differential. 3 MINUTES.

The fact that he was subpar offensively (battling illness) and still just rocked the minutes the way he did confirms he put on an absolutely generational clinic defensively. Two way superstar.

What's most amazing about those stats from 2019 is that it's not as though the Philly squad was a one-man team. Whatever people's thoughts on Simmons, that team also had Jimmy Butler on it! How the hell did the Sixers get so thoroughly dominated in the minutes that Embiid didn't play?

Embiid is obviously incredible, but there was some tremendous matchup hunting being done by Toronto in that series (Ibaka in particular had some great games). And, of course, that was probably Kawhi's best series of the whole playoffs. He really carried the team through it until some of the other guys were ready to step it up against Milwaukee and Golden State.

[Joker]

Harden-Rivers is a pretty damn shaky tandem for high playoff pressure/expectations, I’ll say that much.

[HotelVitale]

As of a few days ago, Embiid was averaging 1.555 points per play on possessions as a roller (since Harden arrived). It's by far and away their best source of offence. I do think Toronto is well suited to disrupting that action a little bit though, so it'll be interesting to see how it goes. Whether it was by choice or as a result of Toronto's defence, Philly didn't seem to get into many Embiid/Harden PNR sets the last two Phi/Tor games.

Exposed, the entire point of the pn'r is that it doesn't require Harden to be explosive to get into the teeth of the defense. That's literally why the pn'r exists. It's been good for the Sixers even when Harden's iso game has been less reliable (to put it mildly), Harden is still a killer passer in tight spots and he's very crafty with timing so that set has been by far the most reliable set.

I actually thought they were intentionally not running it last game to not expose their hand, only explanation I could fin for why they basically didn't run it at all in the 4th q. They'd been running it steadily in tight games for the weeks before that and even my partner (who doens't knw bball at all) was saying 'how come they're not doing their little play now?' the other night. I hope that's the explanation at least, cuz if they still think Harden, Embiid, and Tobias isos are the way to go at 4th q PO offense again, there's going to be a lot of tears in the Delaware Valley over the next couple weeks.

The point of a pick and roll is to force the defense into an uncomfortable position. The issue here is that the raps are very comfortable just switching, and they’re comfortable with it because harden cantor punish it (or at least hasn’t been able to yet)

Don't want to get into a while thing about the nature of the pn'r, but 'uncomfortable position' doesn't just mean 'mismatch via switches.' It's pretty rare that you're running the pn'r just to get switches for isos (happens but not that much), I'd say it's clearly most useful for opening up little gaps and getting the defense to make little mistakes. Harden has been getting to the basket sometimes off defenses over-committing (or just over-thinking) in the pn'r, and Embiid has been effective both in dives to the cup (if the defense gives it to him) or in FT-line pops (if they sag). At worst it usually gets Embiid into a better position to attack than the isos do, facing up from about 15-17ft with single coverage.

Anyway, I'm not trying to argue the Harden/Embiid pn'r will be lethal and allow the Sixers to rampage or anything. Just saying that it's the Sixers best option and we haven't really seen how the Raptors contain it.

[kuclas]

The series won't hing on anything the raptors do. It's just a matter of the sixers moving the ball around. Raptors and Nick Nurse defensive schemes count on Harden/Embiid iso ball and selective double teaming. This is a series Harris has to earn his contract money. Also a series Doc Rivers has got to play 4 starters 40 minutes each. Harris/embiid/Maxey/Harden. Series can go either way. I think game 1 winner will win the series though.

[Exp0sed]

As of a few days ago, Embiid was averaging 1.555 points per play on possessions as a roller (since Harden arrived). It's by far and away their best source of offence. I do think Toronto is well suited to disrupting that action a little bit though, so it'll be interesting to see how it goes. Whether it was by choice or as a result of Toronto's defence, Philly didn't seem to get into many Embiid/Harden PNR sets the last two Phi/Tor games.

Exposed, the entire point of the pn'r is that it doesn't require Harden to be explosive to get into the teeth of the defense. That's literally why the pn'r exists. It's been good for the Sixers even when Harden's iso game has been less reliable (to put it mildly), Harden is still a killer passer in tight spots and he's very crafty with timing so that set has been by far the most reliable set.

I actually thought they were intentionally not running it last game to not expose their hand, only explanation I could fin for why they basically didn't run it at all in the 4th q. They'd been running it steadily in tight games for the weeks before that and even my partner (who doens't knw bball at all) was saying 'how come they're not doing their little play now?' the other night. I hope that's the explanation at least, cuz if they still think Harden, Embiid, and Tobias isos are the way to go at 4th q PO offense again, there's going to be a lot of tears in the Delaware Valley over the next couple weeks.

The point of a pick and roll is to force the defense into an uncomfortable position. The issue here is that the raps are very comfortable just switching, and they’re comfortable with it because harden cantor punish it (or at least hasn’t been able to yet)

That's exactly what I said..Because the Raps are so comfortable switching (that is a big reason why the Raps are such a bad matchup for the Sixers, the Raps are very unique that way..no switch to 'hunt') added to the fact that Harden isn't a real scoring threat (or at least at a level that the Raps will live with) - The Pnr will fail to put Toronto in those uncomfortable positions...they will just stay with Embiid and dare Harden to hit those mid range floaters. IF he can...that will be a diff story and Philly should win in 5 quite easily.

The raps almost have to double Embiid on the roll, or at least some shadowing...trying to deny him the ball down low from the front and the back, that will leave a lot of space for Harden but he needs to be a real scoring threat otherwise Raps will live with the results imo

[stormi]

He averaged 17/8/3 in that series with an embarrassing 37% field goal percentage. I’d say there’s a lot more he could’ve done.

Read on Twitter

That's game 7. That ended in regulation. That means in the 3 minutes he sat the Sixers got stabbed for a net negative 12 point differential. 3 MINUTES.

The fact that he was subpar offensively (battling illness) and still just rocked the minutes the way he did confirms he put on an absolutely generational clinic defensively. Two way superstar.

What's most amazing about those stats from 2019 is that it's not as though the Philly squad was a one-man team. Whatever people's thoughts on Simmons, that team also had Jimmy Butler on it! How the hell did the Sixers get so thoroughly dominated in the minutes that Embiid didn't play?

Embiid is obviously incredible, but there was some tremendous matchup hunting being done by Toronto in that series (Ibaka in particular had some great games). And, of course, that was probably Kawhi's best series of the whole playoffs. He really carried the team through it until some of the other guys were ready to step it up against Milwaukee and Golden State.

Ibaka was the red herring dude. I truly believe we win that series if Nurse doesn't swap Ibaka for Green in that starting 5. He just went demon mode on the glass and was hitting some KD ass deep 3's.

That Sixers roster was such an enigma, but they mostly got stomped whenever Embiid left the court because of who they were replacing him with. They had no bench depth whatsoever and Jimmy Butler wasn't the long way 4 quarter dominanting superstar like Kawhi/Giannis/Durant.

[everdiso]

If Harden plays great and averages 26+ points on good efficiency of better the 76ers easily win. If Harden's current woes continue into the playoffs the 76ers are in deep trouble. Aside from Embiid, there's no one on the 76ers that can go off for 30 easily like Harden, and if harden can't, the 76ers need to rely on Maxey for to help Embiid in scoring.

Maxey can go off for 30 if Harden's hitting in the rest of his game (dishing assists, finding open dudes), but he needs to prove he can do it in the post-season now.

How Maxey went from a 30% 3 point shooter to a 42% 3 point shooter in 1 season is kind of beyond me.

It's normal to expect improvement, maybe even a 4-5% improvement, but a 12% improvement on higher volume speaks of an outlier improvement.

Hey Siakam in one year went from 22.0 to 36.9 on higher volume.

[stormi]

This is a series Harris has to earn his contract money.

[heatwillbeback]

Raptors have a bunch good long defenders and Nurse is a coach that will adjust and move defenders around. Harden I see specifically having trouble. Embiid less so because one thing Raptors lack is size inside.

It’s a tough matchup for Sixers. I still think they should win, but this will be a grind.

[Vampirate]

Maxey can go off for 30 if Harden's hitting in the rest of his game (dishing assists, finding open dudes), but he needs to prove he can do it in the post-season now.

How Maxey went from a 30% 3 point shooter to a 42% 3 point shooter in 1 season is kind of beyond me.

It's normal to expect improvement, maybe even a 4-5% improvement, but a 12% improvement on higher volume speaks of an outlier improvement.

Hey Siakam in one year went from 22.0 to 36.9 on higher volume.

The jump from horrible to decent is less than the jump from bad to borderline elite though.

[Statlanta]

76ers in 7.

[Snotbubbles]

In both games the Sixers lost this season, the Sixers bench did them in. Georges Niang was terrible in the two losses. I think, with a week off and entering the series well rested, the Sixers will cruise in this series.

Honestly, I kinda hope the Sixers lose so we can fire Doc and bring in a new coach.

I find it unfathomable that Both Sixers and Nuggets, Teams with Center MVP candidates have such poor bench at C
They are both good teams with Playoff and even Championship aspirations, very hard to justifity having such a gaping hole.

Not saying that the Sixers bench problem is limited to the Center position just that it's very hard for a team so reliant on one dude, to have basically nothing in his place when he sits and still be a real contender.

To be fair, the Sixers gutted their depth to add Harden mid-season. In the offseason, I have full confidence that Morey will fill out the bench. It's tough to do on the buyout market, you have limited options.