Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 3-2)

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Series Prediction for 76ers vs. Raptors?

76ers in 4
46
25%
76ers in 5
40
22%
76ers in 6
11
6%
76ers in 7
4
2%
Raptors in 6
12
7%
Raptors in 7
70
38%
 
Total votes: 183

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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#181 » by Sixerscan » Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:28 pm

Sisqo wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
Sisqo wrote:
Well that's not true.. I think people are missing the point, MOST of the people complaining don't give a **** about the calls embiid is getting. its about the calls toronto is NOT getting. There has been nothing consistent about how the games have been called. That's not whining, its just about getting the same call for both sides. We know we are fouling embiid.
As for fouling harden, I dunno anymore. He does his rip through and flops so its hard to tell whats real or not with him


What lol plenty of people are complaining about Embiid.

In terms of the raptors they are averaging like 2 fewer free throws than they did during the year in games that average 8 fewer possessions than they did during the year.

In terms of “the same fouls on both sides” no one on the raptors plays like Embiid or Harden so I’m not sure how that makes sense. Tell Siakam to try to back Embiid down the way Embiid does on him and see how effective it is. Not because the refs like Embiid more but because of basic physics.

Your team built its roster without a center and so Embiid is going against guys that give up 50 pounds on him. You’re coach is openly talking about how aggressive he wants his team to be. I’m not sure why anyone is surprised Embiid is picking up fouls the way he is and your team isn’t. It just seems like a very obvious trade off for building the roster this way that shouldn’t have to be explained.

I understand what your saying and I know no one is built like Embiid on the raptors but when you see guys hitting the floor from being pushed or hacked (obviously not all the time) it looks like there is no consistency. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying its completely out of whack here but I don't think its been balanced. You can't really say they aren't built to get to the line because regular season stats show that's not the case.

People keep bring up that Toronto said they are going to be physical. Why does that automatically mean everything is a foul? I've seen that argument used by so many people here. Those 2 things aren't mutually exclusive.
At the end of the day I know it's not why they are losing but its sad its even a talking point. Refs in the league in general are not great and consistency from game to game is just not there. That's a much bigger problem than this series.


It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's also based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling, and so the Sixers are drawing fouls higher than the league high rate they already did during the year.

Again, the Raptors are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#182 » by ATLTimekeeper » Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:41 pm

Sixerscan wrote:
Sisqo wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
What lol plenty of people are complaining about Embiid.

In terms of the raptors they are averaging like 2 fewer free throws than they did during the year in games that average 8 fewer possessions than they did during the year.

In terms of “the same fouls on both sides” no one on the raptors plays like Embiid or Harden so I’m not sure how that makes sense. Tell Siakam to try to back Embiid down the way Embiid does on him and see how effective it is. Not because the refs like Embiid more but because of basic physics.

Your team built its roster without a center and so Embiid is going against guys that give up 50 pounds on him. You’re coach is openly talking about how aggressive he wants his team to be. I’m not sure why anyone is surprised Embiid is picking up fouls the way he is and your team isn’t. It just seems like a very obvious trade off for building the roster this way that shouldn’t have to be explained.

I understand what your saying and I know no one is built like Embiid on the raptors but when you see guys hitting the floor from being pushed or hacked (obviously not all the time) it looks like there is no consistency. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying its completely out of whack here but I don't think its been balanced. You can't really say they aren't built to get to the line because regular season stats show that's not the case.

People keep bring up that Toronto said they are going to be physical. Why does that automatically mean everything is a foul? I've seen that argument used by so many people here. Those 2 things aren't mutually exclusive.
At the end of the day I know it's not why they are losing but its sad its even a talking point. Refs in the league in general are not great and consistency from game to game is just not there. That's a much bigger problem than this series.


It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling, and so the Sixers are drawing fouls higher than the league high rate they already did during the year.

Again, the Raptors are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.


Their opponent FTA rate is .252. Philadelphia's is .250. So, effectively the exact same. Philadelphia's FTA rate is .282, the Raptors is .232. So, we should expect more FTAs from Philadelphia relative to the Raptors.

We should not expect .418 - .205. That's too much. Philadelphia stopped fouling and Toronto started fouling at an extreme rate, or some refs got carried away and blew two games. We should expect a correction in Toronto, because Masai is good friends with Adam Silver and he'll be in his ear about this nonsense.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#183 » by Sisqo » Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:49 pm

Sixerscan wrote:
Sisqo wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
What lol plenty of people are complaining about Embiid.

In terms of the raptors they are averaging like 2 fewer free throws than they did during the year in games that average 8 fewer possessions than they did during the year.

In terms of “the same fouls on both sides” no one on the raptors plays like Embiid or Harden so I’m not sure how that makes sense. Tell Siakam to try to back Embiid down the way Embiid does on him and see how effective it is. Not because the refs like Embiid more but because of basic physics.

Your team built its roster without a center and so Embiid is going against guys that give up 50 pounds on him. You’re coach is openly talking about how aggressive he wants his team to be. I’m not sure why anyone is surprised Embiid is picking up fouls the way he is and your team isn’t. It just seems like a very obvious trade off for building the roster this way that shouldn’t have to be explained.

I understand what your saying and I know no one is built like Embiid on the raptors but when you see guys hitting the floor from being pushed or hacked (obviously not all the time) it looks like there is no consistency. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying its completely out of whack here but I don't think its been balanced. You can't really say they aren't built to get to the line because regular season stats show that's not the case.

People keep bring up that Toronto said they are going to be physical. Why does that automatically mean everything is a foul? I've seen that argument used by so many people here. Those 2 things aren't mutually exclusive.
At the end of the day I know it's not why they are losing but its sad its even a talking point. Refs in the league in general are not great and consistency from game to game is just not there. That's a much bigger problem than this series.


It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling.

Again, they are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.


Look I get it but if you want to try and throw data around you have to use the right data. You make some key assumptions as well.
When I talk about Embiid or Harden and not getting called for fouls you assume I mean only against Toronto. I've said a few times now that its a bigger issue.

As for using the wrong data.

Toronto averaged 0.233 but last 3 games they are averaging 0.175.
Philly averaged 0.285 but last 3 games 0.361

Also both teams averaged 19.4 and 19.6 PF per game in the regular season.
Wanna take a guess what that looks like now?

Not quite what you said at all.

I'm happy to dig into the data and really show you if you want man, its what I do for a living (not being sarcastic lol)
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#184 » by Wolfgang630 » Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:50 pm

It’d be nice if the Raptors could win a game to actually make this a series.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#185 » by Raptors_Dynasty » Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:52 pm

The FT disparity makes sense.

Embiid is throwing himself into people playing super physical. In the regular season, sure many of those are going to get called, but it's the playoffs these are no longer calls. I think we should be angry that Masai didn't pick up a physical bruiser for our team that could be doing the same right now back at Philly/Embiid. We aren't getting calls because we have no one to force those calls to be made. Sure some of the calls are debatable, but the disparity is not entirely on the refs.

Our best interior scorer is Siakam, whose whole game is to finesse his way around defenders with spins and fakes. That isn't going to get any calls in the playoffs.

Our other players are not consistent interior finishers, so you can't expect consistent playoff calls.

TO's go down in the playoffs and the game slows down. Also, Philly is just trying harder on rebounds wherein the regular season they weren't. Full effort on rebounding from both teams, Philly will win off Embiid's presence alone. So boom, the three main advantages for the Raptors are gone.

Add in Embiid is probably MVP. Maxey is going crazy.

Raptors are severely overmatched. Not enough talent on the team at this time to be a factor in the playoff (this wasn't the goal from the start, we just overachieved slightly). It's just that the time is now for the Sixers, we just rolled down to the bottom of the mountain after the chip in 19' and are starting to climb back up, future is bright for us.

My only wish is we win today because I'm going to the game lol. But if I'm betting money Philly in 5 or 6
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#186 » by fbalmeida » Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:33 pm

A few notes about the refereeing:

1. The 76ers have obviously vastly outplayed the Raptors in both games. The 76ers' merit thus far, generally speaking, is not in question; however, the time, place, and manner in which certain calls are made have a natural impact, particularly in Game 2. In the 1st quarter of G2, the Raptors made 12 FG (5 of them threes) to the 76ers 8. That type of differential is typically conducive to a double digit lead, yet the Raptors only held a one point lead at the end of the 1st quarter.

2. The tolerance for contact typically goes up in the playoffs, but it has statistically gone down in this series to the benefit of the 76ers. The Raptors are registering slightly below their average in terms of drawn fouls, while the 76ers have vastly exceeded theirs, e.g., 23.8 FTA per game, to 32.0, and 19.4 fouls per game called on the 76ers to now 18.0. Two games in to these playoffs and the 76ers are currently the team with the least number of fouls called on them. You can argue that this deviation from the regular season norm simply corresponds, in its entirety, to the different levels of toughness and play style that the teams are deploying, but looking at these fouls in detail, I remain wholly unconvinced:
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4. To suggest that a man who has lived near Philadelphia his entire life may have been biased in favour of his hometown team, following a decisive playoff game with a 30-12 FTA differential, where at least half of these calls range from questionable to preposterous, would hardly classify as a "conspiracy".
5. To suggest that the referees for Games 1 and 2 are statistically among the most home-team friendly referees in the league (as a matter of statistical fact, they are) and that the referees for Game 3, announced earlier today, are statistically far less home-team friendly (they are) isn't a conspiracy either. A conspiracy would be to suggest that referees are being assigned with this purpose in mind.

So here's a spreadsheet, using data from here:

https://official.nba.com/referee-assignments/
and here
https://www.nbastuffer.com/2021-2022-nba-referee-stats/

This is a list of refs ranked by descending order of Home team winning %. Blue for the ref crews in Game 1 and 2 in Philly. Red for the ref crew for Game 3 in Toronto. For refs with multiple lines as both chief and crew members, I've only coloured lines for the same roles they've had in this playoff series.

Image

To be perfectly clear, the Raptors were outplayed in all of Game 1 and most of Game 2. Also, I find it really hard to fathom that the league would be assigning these refs with the intent of helping or hindering a specific home or away team. All I'm saying is that I find that spreadsheet to be dumbfounding.

Not quite as dumbfounding as trying to figure out what happened to our top-10 defense in this series, but almost.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#187 » by whitehops » Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:29 pm

hopefully the raps don't get completely blown out this game so we can see a last 2 minute report and see what the league has to say about the calls.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#188 » by Perseus1966 » Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:59 pm

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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#189 » by nikster » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:23 pm

Sixerscan wrote:
nikster wrote:
Lou84 wrote:Just watched the first quarter of the second game until now, but if somenine is complaining about the calls that embiid got in the first quarter I don't know what to say. They played him very physical, he is a physical dude by design obviously, so he gets a lot of foul calls. Imho there was one "and1" that was 50/50 and that was it. On the other side there was an occasion where harden defended under the basket and pushed a raptor player around and was not whistled for it. Besides that I really cannot see what's the big problem. One team attacks the paint with a real center and the other team doesn't. Will try to watch the rest today or tomorrow if I have time.

Besides all the foul talk, anyone noticed how different Joel plays in this series? Usually he settles more for jumpers and 3 pointers. This series he is going full force in the paint with quick decision making. I absolutely love it.

Looking forward to the next game. Will be interesting if the raports can attemp a comeback at home. Best of luck. :-)

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The fast break and putback when Achiuwa had his back to his basket are complete no calls. 50/50 calls are the bump Birch had on him that quarter. Then were in bonus earlier. If the Raps get those 50/50 calls the other way your looking at a 10 point swing without a difference in the quality of reffing


You mean the one where Precious is facing the wrong way? He throws his arm back and hits Embiid's arm as he's shooting. Just because Embiid is strong enough to overcome the hit doesn't make it not a foul. Also on the initial shot there Precious has his arm wrapped around Embiid while he's doing a spin move. So if we're saying those were both "50/50" calls it seems it came out proportionate.

That play is a pretty perfect encapsulation of how the Raptors don't have someone to physically cover Embiid legally and so they are often having to resort to fouling him to adjust his shot. Contrary to what you may think the refs aren't calling every single time it happens and giving every 50/50 call the Sixers way, the Raptors are just creating a lot of situations like this and are getting caught sometimes. If you have someone like Gasol out there he can just play him straight up he doesn't have to do that wrap around on the initial shot and he's not getting moved off his spot when he's trying to block out on the second and have to blindly flail back.

Also the Precious and Birch fouls both happened when the Raptors were in the bonus. Precious was with 1:25 seconds left in the quarter.

With this team Nurse has to figure out how to stop Embiid from getting that deep position because once he does it's generally going to be a foul and/or layup. I assume they'll come up with something creative tonight.

I just completely disagree that's a 50/50 call. Basically straight up with almost no contact. I don't think there's a player in the league who couldn't finish through that contact. May ave been a foul earlier in the play, also a foul when Embiid has his hand on Achiuwas back as he goes for the rebound

The And 1 on the layup was early and that lead to bonus free throws on the Birch foul. Not sure how that would have changed bonus down the line

I was just watching the highlights of Draymond guarding Jokic and he gets away with more contact in virtually all of those plays
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#190 » by RoyceDa59 » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:29 pm

The second Embiid stepped all his weight on Scotty’s ankle, this series was a wrap and became so uninteresting. I’ve been watching all other games.

But a hobbled team facing the league leader in free throws, with a narrative that obviously wants Philly to advance. Games have been super boring.

Watching Barnes step up on the big stage was the most exciting part about these playoffs for Raptors fans and it was also our only chance of making this a series as he’s our only counter to Embiid.

Sure I’ll check in for game 3 but there’s been nothing entertaining about this series so far and if it’s a blowout by half time I’ll tune in to something else.

It’s a mismatch to begin with. Sixers are too talented.

Much more excited about this Celts Nets game.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#191 » by G R E Y » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:45 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
Sisqo wrote:I understand what your saying and I know no one is built like Embiid on the raptors but when you see guys hitting the floor from being pushed or hacked (obviously not all the time) it looks like there is no consistency. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying its completely out of whack here but I don't think its been balanced. You can't really say they aren't built to get to the line because regular season stats show that's not the case.

People keep bring up that Toronto said they are going to be physical. Why does that automatically mean everything is a foul? I've seen that argument used by so many people here. Those 2 things aren't mutually exclusive.
At the end of the day I know it's not why they are losing but its sad its even a talking point. Refs in the league in general are not great and consistency from game to game is just not there. That's a much bigger problem than this series.


It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling, and so the Sixers are drawing fouls higher than the league high rate they already did during the year.

Again, the Raptors are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.


Their opponent FTA rate is .252. Philadelphia's is .250. So, effectively the exact same. Philadelphia's FTA rate is .282, the Raptors is .232. So, we should expect more FTAs from Philadelphia relative to the Raptors.

We should not expect .418 - .205. That's too much. Philadelphia stopped fouling and Toronto started fouling at an extreme rate, or some refs got carried away and blew two games. We should expect a correction in Toronto, because Masai is good friends with Adam Silver and he'll be in his ear about this nonsense.

Is this a serious cause-effect assertion or tongue-in-cheek? I honestly can't tell.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#192 » by LoveMyRaps » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:47 pm

Wolfgang630 wrote:It’d be nice if the Raptors could win a game to actually make this a series.


It'd be nice if the refs could officiate the game fairly to make this a series.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#193 » by BullyKing » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:57 pm

G R E Y wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling, and so the Sixers are drawing fouls higher than the league high rate they already did during the year.

Again, the Raptors are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.


Their opponent FTA rate is .252. Philadelphia's is .250. So, effectively the exact same. Philadelphia's FTA rate is .282, the Raptors is .232. So, we should expect more FTAs from Philadelphia relative to the Raptors.

We should not expect .418 - .205. That's too much. Philadelphia stopped fouling and Toronto started fouling at an extreme rate, or some refs got carried away and blew two games. We should expect a correction in Toronto, because Masai is good friends with Adam Silver and he'll be in his ear about this nonsense.

Is this a serious cause-effect assertion or tongue-in-cheek? I honestly can't tell.


No, he's serious. This is all a conspiracy against Toronto and the idea that maybe Toronto is actually committing more fouls is too absurd a notion to even be considered. We're like 48 hours from conspiracy theories that would make even QAnon blush.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#194 » by Sixerscan » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:57 pm

Sisqo wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
Sisqo wrote:I understand what your saying and I know no one is built like Embiid on the raptors but when you see guys hitting the floor from being pushed or hacked (obviously not all the time) it looks like there is no consistency. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying its completely out of whack here but I don't think its been balanced. You can't really say they aren't built to get to the line because regular season stats show that's not the case.

People keep bring up that Toronto said they are going to be physical. Why does that automatically mean everything is a foul? I've seen that argument used by so many people here. Those 2 things aren't mutually exclusive.
At the end of the day I know it's not why they are losing but its sad its even a talking point. Refs in the league in general are not great and consistency from game to game is just not there. That's a much bigger problem than this series.


It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling.

Again, they are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.


Look I get it but if you want to try and throw data around you have to use the right data. You make some key assumptions as well.
When I talk about Embiid or Harden and not getting called for fouls you assume I mean only against Toronto. I've said a few times now that its a bigger issue.

As for using the wrong data.

Toronto averaged 0.233 but last 3 games they are averaging 0.175.
Philly averaged 0.285 but last 3 games 0.361

Also both teams averaged 19.4 and 19.6 PF per game in the regular season.
Wanna take a guess what that looks like now?

Not quite what you said at all.

I'm happy to dig into the data and really show you if you want man, its what I do for a living (not being sarcastic lol)


I'm not following what you mean, Toronto's FTAs/FGA during the year was .177 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2022.html

I think you're looking at something different than I am? Like you're citing a different statistic, not sure what accounts for the discrepancy, would need to know what you are talking about. Also last *3* games are you sure you are citing the right sample?

Yes Philly's is higher than it is during the year, that seems easily explainable by just saying that teams don't play the super aggressive scheme without a center that Toronto plays, and Toronto doesn't usually play this scheme against a dominant big man that yes is very good at drawing fouls.

But the simpler explanation might just be that Embiid played 58% of minutes during the year and Harden played 20% and now they're playing almost the whole game. Combined the 2 of them are actually averaging fewer free throws per 36 minutes than they did during the year (21.2 during the season versus 18.9 in the first two games).
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#195 » by losmi » Wed Apr 20, 2022 7:13 pm

Perseus1966 wrote:
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You can take any player any game and make a video that justifies getting 12 fta, but only some players will really get those 12 fta.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#196 » by wow09 » Wed Apr 20, 2022 7:18 pm

BullyKing wrote:
G R E Y wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Their opponent FTA rate is .252. Philadelphia's is .250. So, effectively the exact same. Philadelphia's FTA rate is .282, the Raptors is .232. So, we should expect more FTAs from Philadelphia relative to the Raptors.

We should not expect .418 - .205. That's too much. Philadelphia stopped fouling and Toronto started fouling at an extreme rate, or some refs got carried away and blew two games. We should expect a correction in Toronto, because Masai is good friends with Adam Silver and he'll be in his ear about this nonsense.

Is this a serious cause-effect assertion or tongue-in-cheek? I honestly can't tell.


No, he's serious. This is all a conspiracy against Toronto and the idea that maybe Toronto is actually committing more fouls is too absurd a notion to even be considered. We're like 48 hours from conspiracy theories that would make even QAnon blush.


I'm sure you wouldn't be complaining if the Sixers playoff opponent shot 32 free throws vs your 10. You would just take it in stride with a smile for sure
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#197 » by Sixerscan » Wed Apr 20, 2022 7:21 pm

wow09 wrote:
BullyKing wrote:
G R E Y wrote:Is this a serious cause-effect assertion or tongue-in-cheek? I honestly can't tell.


No, he's serious. This is all a conspiracy against Toronto and the idea that maybe Toronto is actually committing more fouls is too absurd a notion to even be considered. We're like 48 hours from conspiracy theories that would make even QAnon blush.


I'm sure you wouldn't be complaining if the Sixers playoff opponent shot 32 free throws vs your 10. You would just take it in stride with a smile for sure


Maybe if we were adequately prepared for the series but in this instance I would complain about my GM not acquiring someone that is within 50 pounds of the other team's best player.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#198 » by G R E Y » Wed Apr 20, 2022 7:30 pm

BullyKing wrote:
G R E Y wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Their opponent FTA rate is .252. Philadelphia's is .250. So, effectively the exact same. Philadelphia's FTA rate is .282, the Raptors is .232. So, we should expect more FTAs from Philadelphia relative to the Raptors.

We should not expect .418 - .205. That's too much. Philadelphia stopped fouling and Toronto started fouling at an extreme rate, or some refs got carried away and blew two games. We should expect a correction in Toronto, because Masai is good friends with Adam Silver and he'll be in his ear about this nonsense.

Is this a serious cause-effect assertion or tongue-in-cheek? I honestly can't tell.


No, he's serious. This is all a conspiracy against Toronto and the idea that maybe Toronto is actually committing more fouls is too absurd a notion to even be considered. We're like 48 hours from conspiracy theories that would make even QAnon blush.

lol I get it. Fans of respective teams get emotional during playoffs and will see calls favourably or not in part influenced by who they cheer for. That video OP posted of slowed down fouls called for Embiid and Harden - I think there were maybe two that shouldn't have been called. Like Harden may be fat and without lift but he's going to swing through every time a defender reaches in and he'll get that call. Embiid I suspect was expected at some point to wilt at the physicality inside and be kept more on the perimeter as before. Well he's using his physicality inside consistently and it's been a big difference for the 76ers (one among several adjustments). TO has no one to stop him there now.

The other side as I understand it is that TO fans feel they're not getting calls. Ok. Post a video collection showing the non-calls, slowed down like that one of fouls on Embiid and Harden. Better yet, Ujiri or whoever can send it to the league to look at. But the assertion that a friendship (and like Silver's not friendly with other execs?) will influence calls requires a tight squint to parse out the specious reasoning.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#199 » by C_Money » Wed Apr 20, 2022 7:58 pm

Win here would be huge.
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Re: Eastern Conference | Round 1 | (4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors (PHI 2-0) 

Post#200 » by Sisqo » Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:07 pm

Sixerscan wrote:
Sisqo wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:
It's not just based on Nurse's comments it's based on how they are playing which matches his comments. They are playing a style of defense and personnel that is conducive to fouling.

Again, they are going to the line about the same amount as they did in the regular season. The Raptors averaged .177 FTAs/FGA during the regular season (25th in the league) and have averaged .170 FTAs/FGA in games 1 and 2. So if you want to argue they are getting screwed out of .007 FTAs/FGA, ok fine. They should have had 1.2 more free throws combined in games 1 and 2.


Look I get it but if you want to try and throw data around you have to use the right data. You make some key assumptions as well.
When I talk about Embiid or Harden and not getting called for fouls you assume I mean only against Toronto. I've said a few times now that its a bigger issue.

As for using the wrong data.

Toronto averaged 0.233 but last 3 games they are averaging 0.175.
Philly averaged 0.285 but last 3 games 0.361

Also both teams averaged 19.4 and 19.6 PF per game in the regular season.
Wanna take a guess what that looks like now?

Not quite what you said at all.

I'm happy to dig into the data and really show you if you want man, its what I do for a living (not being sarcastic lol)


I'm not following what you mean, Toronto's FTAs/FGA during the year was .177 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2022.html

I think you're looking at something different than I am? Like you're citing a different statistic, not sure what accounts for the discrepancy, would need to know what you are talking about. Also last *3* games are you sure you are citing the right sample?

Yes Philly's is higher than it is during the year, that seems easily explainable by just saying that teams don't play the super aggressive scheme without a center that Toronto plays, and Toronto doesn't usually play this scheme against a dominant big man that yes is very good at drawing fouls.

But the simpler explanation might just be that Embiid played 58% of minutes during the year and Harden played 20% and now they're playing almost the whole game. Combined the 2 of them are actually averaging fewer free throws per 36 minutes than they did during the year (21.2 during the season versus 18.9 in the first two games).


Im using my paid subscription to a data source used for work so I tend to trust it.
Same stat just different results oddly enough.

As it seems it keeps coming back to the numbers of ft's embiid is shooting, i'll say again that its not what im questioning. Its the lack of calls for Toronto.

Either way I'm kinda over it at this point unless we are using the same source its not going to line up because we can cherrypick stat fields all day to fit each of our stories or make big assumptions about minutes.

I'm really interested in seeing how tonight goes, with so many unknowns on the players available and how the Raptors respond I have no idea how it will go.

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