NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (part 4 - The Final MVP Countdown!)

[eyeatoma]

Latest Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill thinks Embiid could win it. Thinks he's on a tear, and recency matters. Thinks that he's having an all time scoring season especially as a center. Thinks Philly, Denver, Milwaukee are all playing for seeding so these games matter. Ryen says he's not sure, but is not decided, easily could see it as Embiid as well. Both say that this is going to go down to the wire. This is like Westbrook winning the MVP at the end with a bunch of clutch performances the last month.

Oh I thought it was some kind of Zach Lower/Ringer conspiracy getting people to vote for Jokic. Lol

It is. I don't trust Bill and I do think they have ridiculous sway.

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[Purch]

So if Jokic wins again, I definitely would still feel last season was the least deserving. This year I feel like Embiid should get it, but if the voters are going based on last year's criteria than there's no reason Jokic wouldn't get it again. If you gave it to him with great Stats and the 6th seed, how can you justify not giving him it with great stats and the 1st seed?

[nikster]

Yeah Embiid has been playing great this season, and Jokic struggled lately making it a real toss up.

It's a shame this MVP race got so toxic and wrapped up in race issues. They are both having incredible seasons. Would love to see them match up in the playoffs at some point in their careers

[eyeatoma]

Recency bias is real, with 16-17 being the perfect example.

All you need to do is have a great story (t-dub without KD) and some moments on national TV in March and April, then whatever happened before that would be easily forgotten because "he showed up when it matters!". To me that MVP race was decided right here:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Yup

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[Doctor MJ]

have you considerd not all good offense is created equal?

example A. - a player scores within the flow of the offense, with members of his team already starting to get back on defense before the play is even done

example B. - a player scores in a drive but ends up on the floor while the opponent inbounds and starts a possesion after a made basket but - 4 on 5 on the floor

see what i mean?
playstyle, i.Q, statetegy etc. are all in play

not all great offensive players have an innate "fixed" contribution to their team's defenses that's true
but some do more than others and like I said - in the rs, Jokic has clearly been that guy

Great points.

The thing is that regardless of which players are actually better or worse, a team's strategy my be shifting apparent offensive vs defensive impact by metrics like this.

A team's strategy can affect a player's overall impact as well of course, but while that's not necessarily the player's fault in terms of what it says about how good he is in the abstract, it does say something real about his on-court value presuming we have enough sample to have confidence in what we see.

ORtg vs DRtg-wise though, all more sample tells us is that the data isn't do to noise, not that it has to be the product of the side of the court it purports to speak to.

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

First to be clear, I'm not looking to champion BPM. I used ORtg & DRtg for a reason.

Second: I'm not saying that these defensive stats are necessarily allocating Jokic's offensive impact as defense, only that that is really the only other possibility besides concluding he's have major defensive impact. And yes, if you're talking about a box score stat like BPM then you're talking about other things being in play, but Jokic's statistical thumbs-up on defense is there with or without the box score.

Regarding the amount of time played together, just keep in mind that it's not like Jokic's only separating himself by the box score.

Here's the leaderboard for raw +/- this year:

1. Jokic +588
2. KCP +495
3. Gordon +482

Top leaders from other teams:
4. Tatum +390 (top Celtic)
6. Garland +368 (top Cav)
8. Holiday +340 (top Buck)
(tie) JJJ +340 (top Grizz)
10. Embiid +321 (top 76er)

The most salient thing here is of course how the Nuggets dominate the list.

But the second most salient thing is how big of an edge Jokic has over anyone else on his team. When you see that, unless there's a specific reason to think that there are two roughly identical players that make each of them replaceable within the team context, it's generally an indicator that the guy standing out is the one actually driving the success, and everyone else is considerably less important.

[Sixerscan]

Great points.

The thing is that regardless of which players are actually better or worse, a team's strategy my be shifting apparent offensive vs defensive impact by metrics like this.

A team's strategy can affect a player's overall impact as well of course, but while that's not necessarily the player's fault in terms of what it says about how good he is in the abstract, it does say something real about his on-court value presuming we have enough sample to have confidence in what we see.

ORtg vs DRtg-wise though, all more sample tells us is that the data isn't do to noise, not that it has to be the product of the side of the court it purports to speak to.

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

First to be clear, I'm not looking to champion BPM. I used ORtg & DRtg for a reason.

Second: I'm not saying that these defensive stats are necessarily allocating Jokic's offensive impact as defense, only that that is really the only other possibility besides concluding he's have major defensive impact. And yes, if you're talking about a box score stat like BPM then you're talking about other things being in play, but Jokic's statistical thumbs-up on defense is there with or without the box score.

Regarding the amount of time played together, just keep in mind that it's not like Jokic's only separating himself by the box score.

Here's the leaderboard for raw +/- this year:

1. Jokic +588
2. KCP +495
3. Gordon +482

Top leaders from other teams:
4. Tatum +390 (top Celtic)
6. Garland +368 (top Cav)
8. Holiday +340 (top Buck)
(tie) JJJ +340 (top Grizz)
10. Embiid +321 (top 76er)

The most salient thing here is of course how the Nuggets dominate the list.

But the second most salient thing is how big of an edge Jokic has over anyone else on his team. When you see that, unless there's a specific reason to think that there are two roughly identical players that make each of them replaceable within the team context, it's generally an indicator that the guy standing out is the one actually driving the success, and everyone else is considerably less important.

Well you did respond to a conversation about why his DBPM was so high

Raw +/- isn't fundamentally flawed the way BPM is, but there's also obviously reasons why people have been trying so hard over the years to come up with these models to improve on raw +/-.

[Exp0sed]

Great points.

The thing is that regardless of which players are actually better or worse, a team's strategy my be shifting apparent offensive vs defensive impact by metrics like this.

A team's strategy can affect a player's overall impact as well of course, but while that's not necessarily the player's fault in terms of what it says about how good he is in the abstract, it does say something real about his on-court value presuming we have enough sample to have confidence in what we see.

ORtg vs DRtg-wise though, all more sample tells us is that the data isn't do to noise, not that it has to be the product of the side of the court it purports to speak to.

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

First to be clear, I'm not looking to champion BPM. I used ORtg & DRtg for a reason.

Second: I'm not saying that these defensive stats are necessarily allocating Jokic's offensive impact as defense, only that that is really the only other possibility besides concluding he's have major defensive impact. And yes, if you're talking about a box score stat like BPM then you're talking about other things being in play, but Jokic's statistical thumbs-up on defense is there with or without the box score.

Regarding the amount of time played together, just keep in mind that it's not like Jokic's only separating himself by the box score.

Here's the leaderboard for raw +/- this year:

1. Jokic +588
2. KCP +495
3. Gordon +482

Top leaders from other teams:
4. Tatum +390 (top Celtic)
6. Garland +368 (top Cav)
8. Holiday +340 (top Buck)
(tie) JJJ +340 (top Grizz)
10. Embiid +321 (top 76er)

The most salient thing here is of course how the Nuggets dominate the list.

But the second most salient thing is how big of an edge Jokic has over anyone else on his team. When you see that, unless there's a specific reason to think that there are two roughly identical players that make each of them replaceable within the team context, it's generally an indicator that the guy standing out is the one actually driving the success, and everyone else is considerably less important.

there's also that little thing calld "our eyes" - what i mean is, Jokic is playing as a traditional C on defense.
we don't need some advanced stat to help us seperate Jokic's contribution on that end of the floor from say, AG's or Murray's - we can see how they are being deployed and which roles they are filling

AG covers the tougher forward matchups but anyone who watched him eiher on the Magic or as a Nugget can see that he isn't very good at it. he isn't bad, it's just not anything that is making any serious impact
he rebounds well, contests some..but more often than not he's a non-factor especially when assigned to perimeter players

Jokic is contesting most of the shots, he's the one helping \ recovering and is there when the defense breaks down (like any other traditional C) and he's the one making sure they get more than their fair share of defensive rebounds, not just by rebounding that's obviously part of the box-score metrics but also in boxing out which isn't in those stats.

to make myself clear i'm not saying he is incredible at it - he obviously isn't and Denver for the season is only about the 15th best defense which is what you would expect with him as the main rim protector and anchor of the defense

but be that as it may, it's very obvious to anyone who watched Nuggets games who is the one that should get the credit for their defense, mediocre as it may be

just for reference, Brook Lopez (da real DPOY) is leading the leauge in DFGA (defended FGA) with a whopping 22.6 shots
Nikola Jokic is 2nd (!) with 20.4
Embiid is 3rd btw with 19.1

again, to avoid confusion - both Lopez and Embiid are obviously better at this aspect of defense and it's evident by opponents shooting about 46.5% when they contest the shots while Jokic is at around 50%

the rest of the top 10 are in this order: #4 Sabonis (who has the worst % among the top 10 in DFGA at almost 54%), Gobert, KP, AD, Zubac, Mobley and Turner
Turner and Zubac have a worse % than the Joker and he's defending more - wrap your head around that

and that's obviously not his strong suit, he excells in other aspects of defense even tho he is def mediocre (at best) in this one

all these guys (with the exception of Mobley) are tasked with anchoring their team's defense as Centers
that's why we don't need some magical stat to seperate AG or MPJ from the Joker - it's plain to see

obviously defense requires cooperation and commnication and is alot more complicated then who stands under the basket and who doesn't, but the reality is the Joker plays a huge part of Denver's medicore defense

if you replace AG or Murray\MPJ (Murray is just bad this season defenseively) you would get about the same results
none of these guys are very significant defensively (or good), without Jokic's rebounding, rim protection, defelctions, i.q and the offense turns to defense stuff - Denver is not a playoff team!

and yes, if you replace the Joker with a better defending C then obviously the Nuggets defense will improve but unless he's some two way elite Center (how many of those are around?) their offense will crater to be amongst the league worst

imagine Murray\KCP\AG\MPJ + Porzingis or Turner
that's not a playoff team imo

[Doctor MJ]

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

First to be clear, I'm not looking to champion BPM. I used ORtg & DRtg for a reason.

Second: I'm not saying that these defensive stats are necessarily allocating Jokic's offensive impact as defense, only that that is really the only other possibility besides concluding he's have major defensive impact. And yes, if you're talking about a box score stat like BPM then you're talking about other things being in play, but Jokic's statistical thumbs-up on defense is there with or without the box score.

Regarding the amount of time played together, just keep in mind that it's not like Jokic's only separating himself by the box score.

Here's the leaderboard for raw +/- this year:

1. Jokic +588
2. KCP +495
3. Gordon +482

Top leaders from other teams:
4. Tatum +390 (top Celtic)
6. Garland +368 (top Cav)
8. Holiday +340 (top Buck)
(tie) JJJ +340 (top Grizz)
10. Embiid +321 (top 76er)

The most salient thing here is of course how the Nuggets dominate the list.

But the second most salient thing is how big of an edge Jokic has over anyone else on his team. When you see that, unless there's a specific reason to think that there are two roughly identical players that make each of them replaceable within the team context, it's generally an indicator that the guy standing out is the one actually driving the success, and everyone else is considerably less important.

Well you did respond to a conversation about why his DBPM was so high

Raw +/- isn't fundamentally flawed the way BPM is, but there's also obviously reasons why people have been trying so hard over the years to come up with these models to improve on raw +/-.

Oh sure, and here's some DRAPM data from nbashotcharts.com from the Nuggets:

40. KCP +0.96
42. Gordon +0.95
52. Jokic +0.89

So by this metric right now there's nothing favoring Jokic over KCP & Gordon, but it's dang close.

And to use the overall metric:

1. Jokic +4.01
2. Gordon +3.56
3. KCP +3.33

Jokic with the clear edge over the other two, but in general I think it's pretty clear that RAPM is overrating Jokic's sidekicks, which is why people like to add some box score into the mix.

And if we look at a stat like dunksandthrees.com's EPM which does this we get:

DEPM:
Gordon +2.1 (95th percentile)
KCP +1.2 (86th)
Jokic +0.2 (67th)

Overall EPM
Jokic +8.0 (100th percentile)
Gordon +5.0 (95th)
Porter +2.6 (90th)
Murray +1.6 (86th)
KCP +1.0 (80th)

I definitely would see EPM as being the most accurate of the bunch...but I also think it overrates the effectiveness of more star-like players (Porter & Murray) over great role players without a strong box score imprint (KCP). At their best Porter & Murray are better than KCP...but this year? I think KCP's flat out been better.

[eyeatoma]

Jokic needs a team that's great offensively, and defensively, right now it's only one side of the ball. KCP, Brown, and AG are above average defenders, but no one is a stopper. They should have gone after OG Anunoby, and Mikal bridges. Also if they had gone after Turner I'd have put Jokic at PF and had Turner at C. Could even do it the other way around, because Turner stretches the floor. Another great player you could have had next to Jokic, but it would never happen because he's untouchable is JJR. You need a true rim protecting player in the front court. Until Denver gets that, there is a good chance teams exploit their weak interior defense and PnR defence.

[iggymcfrack]

have you considerd not all good offense is created equal?

example A. - a player scores within the flow of the offense, with members of his team already starting to get back on defense before the play is even done

example B. - a player scores in a drive but ends up on the floor while the opponent inbounds and starts a possesion after a made basket but - 4 on 5 on the floor

see what i mean?
playstyle, i.Q, statetegy etc. are all in play

not all great offensive players have an innate "fixed" contribution to their team's defenses that's true
but some do more than others and like I said - in the rs, Jokic has clearly been that guy

Great points.

The thing is that regardless of which players are actually better or worse, a team's strategy my be shifting apparent offensive vs defensive impact by metrics like this.

A team's strategy can affect a player's overall impact as well of course, but while that's not necessarily the player's fault in terms of what it says about how good he is in the abstract, it does say something real about his on-court value presuming we have enough sample to have confidence in what we see.

ORtg vs DRtg-wise though, all more sample tells us is that the data isn't do to noise, not that it has to be the product of the side of the court it purports to speak to.

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

You don't need to knock down a straw man like "BPM is the reason that people are high on Jokic". Not one person you quoted mentioned it and his absurd impact stats are a much, much bigger factor. Here are the top players in the metrics most respected by actual NBA GMs:

DPM: Jokic +6.5, Embiid +5.9, Giannis +5.8, Tatum +5.0

EPM: Jokic +8.0, Embiid +7.2, Lillard +7.0, Butler +7.0

LEBRON: Jokic +8.25, Giannis +5.48, JJJ +5.40, Embiid +5.10

RAPTOR: Jokic +14.5, Doncic +8.0, Embiid +7.8, Lillard +7.4

Sure, you can find fault with any one particular metric, but when you look at all the top metrics, the only disagreement is whether Jokic is the best player in the league by a normal amount or whether the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than the difference between 2nd and 73rd.

[Doctor MJ]

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

First to be clear, I'm not looking to champion BPM. I used ORtg & DRtg for a reason.

Second: I'm not saying that these defensive stats are necessarily allocating Jokic's offensive impact as defense, only that that is really the only other possibility besides concluding he's have major defensive impact. And yes, if you're talking about a box score stat like BPM then you're talking about other things being in play, but Jokic's statistical thumbs-up on defense is there with or without the box score.

Regarding the amount of time played together, just keep in mind that it's not like Jokic's only separating himself by the box score.

Here's the leaderboard for raw +/- this year:

1. Jokic +588
2. KCP +495
3. Gordon +482

Top leaders from other teams:
4. Tatum +390 (top Celtic)
6. Garland +368 (top Cav)
8. Holiday +340 (top Buck)
(tie) JJJ +340 (top Grizz)
10. Embiid +321 (top 76er)

The most salient thing here is of course how the Nuggets dominate the list.

But the second most salient thing is how big of an edge Jokic has over anyone else on his team. When you see that, unless there's a specific reason to think that there are two roughly identical players that make each of them replaceable within the team context, it's generally an indicator that the guy standing out is the one actually driving the success, and everyone else is considerably less important.

there's also that little thing calld "our eyes" - what i mean is, Jokic is playing as a traditional C on defense.
we don't need some advanced stat to help us seperate Jokic's contribution on that end of the floor from say, AG's or Murray's - we can see how they are being deployed and which roles they are filling

AG covers the tougher forward matchups but anyone who watched him eiher on the Magic or as a Nugget can see that he isn't very good at it. he isn't bad, it's just not anything that is making any serious impact
he rebounds well, contests some..but more often than not he's a non-factor especially when assigned to perimeter players

Jokic is contesting most of the shots, he's the one helping \ recovering and is there when the defense breaks down (like any other traditional C) and he's the one making sure they get more than their fair share of defensive rebounds, not just by rebounding that's obviously part of the box-score metrics but also in boxing out which isn't in those stats.

to make myself clear i'm not saying he is incredible at it - he obviously isn't and Denver for the season is only about the 15th best defense which is what you would expect with him as the main rim protector and anchor of the defense

but be that as it may, it's very obvious to anyone who watched Nuggets games who is the one that should get the credit for their defense, mediocre as it may be

just for reference, Brook Lopez (da real DPOY) is leading the leauge in DFGA (defended FGA) with a whopping 22.6 shots
Nikola Jokic is 2nd (!) with 20.4
Embiid is 3rd btw with 19.1

again, to avoid confusion - both Lopez and Embiid are obviously better at this aspect of defense and it's evident by opponents shooting about 46.5% when they contest the shots while Jokic is at around 50%

the rest of the top 10 are in this order: #4 Sabonis (who has the worst % among the top 10 in DFGA at almost 54%), Gobert, KP, AD, Zubac, Mobley and Turner
Turner and Zubac have a worse % than the Joker and he's defending more - wrap your head around that

and that's obviously not his strong suit, he excells in other aspects of defense even tho he is def mediocre (at best) in this one

all these guys (with the exception of Mobley) are tasked with anchoring their team's defense as Centers
that's why we don't need some magical stat to seperate AG or MPJ from the Joker - it's plain to see

obviously defense requires cooperation and commnication and is alot more complicated then who stands under the basket and who doesn't, but the reality is the Joker plays a huge part of Denver's medicore defense

if you replace AG or Murray\MPJ (Murray is just bad this season defenseively) you would get about the same results
none of these guys are very significant defensively (or good), without Jokic's rebounding, rim protection, defelctions, i.q and the offense turns to defense stuff - Denver is not a playoff team!

and yes, if you replace the Joker with a better defending C then obviously the Nuggets defense will improve but unless he's some two way elite Center (how many of those are around?) their offense will crater to be amongst the league worst

imagine Murray\KCP\AG\MPJ + Porzingis or Turner
that's not a playoff team imo

Good thoughts but I'll just say that I think you really do need to make use of +/- style stats in order to be confident you're getting the full picture in general, and this is certainly the case when you're talking about a) an area poorly covered by the box score, and b) a player whose basketball brain is so off the charts that even very knowledgeable people struggle to understand the subtle impacts.

[iggymcfrack]

So if Jokic wins again, I definitely would still feel last season was the least deserving. This year I feel like Embiid should get it, but if the voters are going based on last year's criteria than there's no reason Jokic wouldn't get it again. If you gave it to him with great Stats and the 6th seed, how can you justify not giving him it with great stats and the 1st seed?

That's the thing. If I were to compare Giannis this year to Giannis last year, I'd say he clearly had a better year last season by pretty much any metric you want to use. If I were to compare Embiid this year to Embiid last year, it's a lot closer, but again I would be more impressed with him last season. Jokic? This season has been not just better, but massively better. His passing has hit a whole new level that lifts the players around him far more than it did before. And as you mentioned his team went from the 6 seed to the 1 seed. If Jokic won the vote 65 to 25 to 9 last year and he got MUCH better as his competition got worse, how do you not give it to him?

[eyeatoma]

So if Jokic wins again, I definitely would still feel last season was the least deserving. This year I feel like Embiid should get it, but if the voters are going based on last year's criteria than there's no reason Jokic wouldn't get it again. If you gave it to him with great Stats and the 6th seed, how can you justify not giving him it with great stats and the 1st seed?

That's the thing. If I were to compare Giannis this year to Giannis last year, I'd say he clearly had a better year last season by pretty much any metric you want to use. If I were to compare Embiid this year to Embiid last year, it's a lot closer, but again I would be more impressed with him last season. Jokic? This season has been not just better, but massively better. His passing has hit a whole new level that lifts the players around him far more than it did before. And as you mentioned his team went from the 6 seed to the 1 seed. If Jokic won the vote 65 to 25 to 9 last year and he got MUCH better as his competition got worse, how do you not give it to him?

Better teammates, more assists. Much higher chance of MPJ, Murray, and KCP hitting those shots over the players they had last year.

[iggymcfrack]

Jokic needs a team that's great offensively, and defensively, right now it's only one side of the ball. KCP, Brown, and AG are above average defenders, but no one is a stopper. They should have gone after OG Anunoby, and Mikal bridges. Also if they had gone after Turner I'd have put Jokic at PF and had Turner at C. Could even do it the other way around, because Turner stretches the floor. Another great player you could have had next to Jokic, but it would never happen because he's untouchable is JJR. You need a true rim protecting player in the front court. Until Denver gets that, there is a good chance teams exploit their weak interior defense and PnR defence.

Honestly, the defense hasn't been bad when they're playing their best lineups. The problem is that Reggie Jackson has been a **** tire fire since he came over and he's taking minutes away from Christian Braun who's one of their best defenders off the bench. Since Jackson joined the team, the Nuggets are -59 in 181 minutes with him on the floor. Meanwhile, they're +3 with Braun on the floor over the same period, but he's only played 58 minutes. Malone did close with Braun playing pretty much the entire 4th quarter last night after not playing him at all the first 3 quarters and not playing him double digit minutes in over 2 weeks so hopefully he's starting to figure it out.

[iggymcfrack]

So if Jokic wins again, I definitely would still feel last season was the least deserving. This year I feel like Embiid should get it, but if the voters are going based on last year's criteria than there's no reason Jokic wouldn't get it again. If you gave it to him with great Stats and the 6th seed, how can you justify not giving him it with great stats and the 1st seed?

That's the thing. If I were to compare Giannis this year to Giannis last year, I'd say he clearly had a better year last season by pretty much any metric you want to use. If I were to compare Embiid this year to Embiid last year, it's a lot closer, but again I would be more impressed with him last season. Jokic? This season has been not just better, but massively better. His passing has hit a whole new level that lifts the players around him far more than it did before. And as you mentioned his team went from the 6 seed to the 1 seed. If Jokic won the vote 65 to 25 to 9 last year and he got MUCH better as his competition got worse, how do you not give it to him?

Better teammates, more assists. Much higher chance of MPJ, Murray, and KCP hitting those shots over the players they had last year.

OK? So if he looks like an even better player than he did last year having somewhat competent teammates, imagine how good he'd look with the kind of teammates that Embiid and Giannis have. He still clearly has the weakest teammates of the bunch.

[eyeatoma]

That's the thing. If I were to compare Giannis this year to Giannis last year, I'd say he clearly had a better year last season by pretty much any metric you want to use. If I were to compare Embiid this year to Embiid last year, it's a lot closer, but again I would be more impressed with him last season. Jokic? This season has been not just better, but massively better. His passing has hit a whole new level that lifts the players around him far more than it did before. And as you mentioned his team went from the 6 seed to the 1 seed. If Jokic won the vote 65 to 25 to 9 last year and he got MUCH better as his competition got worse, how do you not give it to him?

Better teammates, more assists. Much higher chance of MPJ, Murray, and KCP hitting those shots over the players they had last year.

OK? So if he looks like an even better player than he did last year having somewhat competent teammates, imagine how good he'd look with the kind of teammates that Embiid and Giannis have. He still clearly has the weakest teammates of the bunch.

I'm saying his numbers are dependent on his teammates, more than the other two candidates.

[Sixerscan]

Great points.

The thing is that regardless of which players are actually better or worse, a team's strategy my be shifting apparent offensive vs defensive impact by metrics like this.

A team's strategy can affect a player's overall impact as well of course, but while that's not necessarily the player's fault in terms of what it says about how good he is in the abstract, it does say something real about his on-court value presuming we have enough sample to have confidence in what we see.

ORtg vs DRtg-wise though, all more sample tells us is that the data isn't do to noise, not that it has to be the product of the side of the court it purports to speak to.

I mean Aaron Gordon plays on the same team, has played close to 90% of his minutes with Jokic, the Nuggets score 0.2 per 100 less and give up 0.8 per 100 less with him on the court compared to Jokic, and yet Gordon's DBPM is -0.4, while Jokic's is +4.4, which is 1 better than anyone else in the league. So if there's something special about Denver's offense that benefits their defense, it's not showing up in Gordon's DBPM.

People can come up with whatever side narratives they want that may explain things to some minimal degree, but clearly what is mostly going on here is DBPM is giving Jokic *basically all of the credit* for the Nuggets defense because of his rebounds and steals, because those are what is in the box score (which is what the B in BPM stands for) and not accounting for the various things he does poorly or his teammates do well that do not show up in those two stats or blocks.

It's kind of funny, in that people are putting BPM up like it's a modern stat when it was first made popular like 15-20 years ago before most teams had actual analytics departments and at it's heart really just refers to the same basic box score stats that people were citing 30/40 years ago.

You don't need to knock down a straw man like "BPM is the reason that people are high on Jokic". Not one person you quoted mentioned it and his absurd impact stats are a much, much bigger factor. Here are the top players in the metrics most respected by actual NBA GMs:

DPM: Jokic +6.5, Embiid +5.9, Giannis +5.8, Tatum +5.0

EPM: Jokic +8.0, Embiid +7.2, Lillard +7.0, Butler +7.0

LEBRON: Jokic +8.25, Giannis +5.48, JJJ +5.40, Embiid +5.10

RAPTOR: Jokic +14.5, Doncic +8.0, Embiid +7.8, Lillard +7.4

Sure, you can find fault with any one particular metric, but when you look at all the top metrics, the only disagreement is whether Jokic is the best player in the league by a normal amount or whether the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than the difference between 2nd and 73rd.

Well the conversation was specifically about how I don't understand why people cite DBPM. I don't think I ever said BPM was the only stat people cite, or that people generally just cite BPM (or any stat) and dont consider watching the guys play, obviously that's wrong, so that's a strawman's strawman

Anyway, BPM gets cited all the time by people with MVP votes as much if not more than the numbers you mention above. Simmons and Russillo (both MVP voters) for example on their most recent podcast (which was posted after I started this discussion) discussed the MVP race and DBPM was the only advanced stat brought up.

All of those other metrics aren't quite as bad (BPM is downright misleading at this point because many people think it includes actual +/- when it doesn't) but still on the defensive end suffer from the limited inputs to various degrees though. You get rebounds and steals and you will grade well, if you do the various other things poorly or well, well we can't account for that so let's just assume it doesn't matter or comes out evenly in the PPP stats (it does not). They're much better on offense, if someone wants to cite just the offensive end of these stats (which Jokic obviously grades very well) I have no issue there.

[GeorgeSears]

I think Embiid has made up some ground on Jokic with his performances, and the Nuggets going 0-3.

Embiid might want to do his best to win it now, because it looks like there's going to be sweeping changes that will impact his future prospects:

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[Exp0sed]

Jokic needs a team that's great offensively, and defensively, right now it's only one side of the ball. KCP, Brown, and AG are above average defenders, but no one is a stopper. They should have gone after OG Anunoby, and Mikal bridges. Also if they had gone after Turner I'd have put Jokic at PF and had Turner at C. Could even do it the other way around, because Turner stretches the floor. Another great player you could have had next to Jokic, but it would never happen because he's untouchable is JJR. You need a true rim protecting player in the front court. Until Denver gets that, there is a good chance teams exploit their weak interior defense and PnR defence.

totally agree

the fact that the Nuggets have made it thru the deadline with this roster is pretty deng bad
unlucky for them not having a slump like the current one earlier in the season it's harder to make moves when ur winning all the time i guess

Keeping Jokic under the basket is a priority, he actually contests pretty well when not helping or recovering after someone else's mistake and his defensive rebounding prowess is magnified by his GOAT outlet passes (after a made basket or a rebound)

so there is little sense in deploying him at PF
however, if he had a real PF with elite mobility and size that's tasked with mostly contesting 3's etc. - these Nuggets will have a real shot at a ring imo

Mobley is probably the best example for that role currently
just imagine what Jokic can turn Mobley into offensively, I mean give him the AG high-low treatment..holy smokes

edit: for reference, Mobley is leading the league in contested 3's and is playing most of his mins with Allen at C
they have the best defense in the league obviously, not saying Jokic will do as good as Allen just saying a guy like Mobley with Jokic instead of guys like AG (whose really a modern 4 but actually a 3) - they'd be much better

and btw, Jokic doesn't "need a team that's great offensively" as he can make a group of NBA players + himself an elite offensive team

Jokic carried Barton, Morris and AG to a top 5 offense

[Exp0sed]

Good thoughts but I'll just say that I think you really do need to make use of +/- style stats in order to be confident you're getting the full picture in general, and this is certainly the case when you're talking about a) an area poorly covered by the box score, and b) a player whose basketball brain is so off the charts that even very knowledgeable people struggle to understand the subtle impacts.

i wasn't excluding +- at all or any other metric
they are immensly valuable when taken with context, a grain of salt and a full spectrum of all kinds of metrics

I was merely emphasizing that you don't need any stat to tell you the Joker is a much bigger part of Denver's defense than a guy like AG or Mpj is, mostly because of how they are deployed and how the game is played - it's plain to see