NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (continued)

[Wolfgang630]

I don’t think Hali is better than SGA as a player.

[CobraCommander]

About Luka's on/off, a recurring theme of statistical anomaly, he had negative on/off yesterday, in the previous game against the Grizzlies, Luka had a new born and missed the game, Mavs were much much healthier than this game, and they still lost, so how can it be they lose to a team w/o Luka but beat them with Luka having negative on/off?
In the 1st half, Luka rest coincided with Bane rest, and Derrick Rose/Jaylen Nowell ran the offense, Rose, bless his heart is totally cooked, and Jaden Hardy caught fire, hitting 3 3s, and Mavs were able to extend the lead, in the 4th, despite Luka already logging 32 minutes out of the 36 minutes, Kidd starts the 4th with him and backups (Markieff Morris and Dwight Powell, maybe 3rd stringers level players, Morris not even that), and Mavs struggle to maintain the lead, and keeping distance solely because Luka is doubled and the Mavs playing 4 on 3 with limited success, this tanked Luka's on off.
Just another example of negative on/off game that anyone who watched wouldn't even consider the possibility of Mavs being actually better w/o Luka, but it doesn't show in stat sheet.

1st. The people voting for mvp watch less games than us

2nd. It’s not a question of if mavs better without Luka...it’s pure on and off...which is impacted by score, coaching, who they playing etc..

Unfortunately I think right now the national narrative has shifted back to Embiid....w/Jokic in second and Giannis still 3rd...essentially it’s between Embiid and Jokic with Giannis needing to be in 1st place in east with outrageous stats to win.

[Wolfgang630]

The media doesn’t give Luka the love like they used too. I think their burnout on him in a way. How many times has he been voted to win MVP prior to a season starting? Feels like nearly ever year lately only for him to start slow or look fat to the media.

When the media sees this they think the guy just doesn’t care and they won’t vote for someone like that as the MVP. People have cooled off on all the hype in the world he had.

[iggymcfrack]

About Luka's on/off, a recurring theme of statistical anomaly, he had negative on/off yesterday, in the previous game against the Grizzlies, Luka had a new born and missed the game, Mavs were much much healthier than this game, and they still lost, so how can it be they lose to a team w/o Luka but beat them with Luka having negative on/off?
In the 1st half, Luka rest coincided with Bane rest, and Derrick Rose/Jaylen Nowell ran the offense, Rose, bless his heart is totally cooked, and Jaden Hardy caught fire, hitting 3 3s, and Mavs were able to extend the lead, in the 4th, despite Luka already logging 32 minutes out of the 36 minutes, Kidd starts the 4th with him and backups (Markieff Morris and Dwight Powell, maybe 3rd stringers level players, Morris not even that), and Mavs struggle to maintain the lead, and keeping distance solely because Luka is doubled and the Mavs playing 4 on 3 with limited success, this tanked Luka's on off.
Just another example of negative on/off game that anyone who watched wouldn't even consider the possibility of Mavs being actually better w/o Luka, but it doesn't show in stat sheet.

1st. The people voting for mvp watch less games than us

2nd. It’s not a question of if mavs better without Luka...it’s pure on and off...which is impacted by score, coaching, who they playing etc..

Unfortunately I think right now the national narrative has shifted back to Embiid....w/Jokic in second and Giannis still 3rd...essentially it’s between Embiid and Jokic with Giannis needing to be in 1st place in east with outrageous stats to win.

Embiid has an uphill battle with the narrative this year after stealing the award last year. This year, if he wants to win he’s going to have to at a bare minimum be the clear best player and maybe have a larger margin over the 2nd guy than Jokic had over him last season. No one’s close to crowning him. He’s 4th in the poll here and 3rd in the betting odds. Here are the best available MVP odds right now for the top 10 candidates:

Jokic +185
Luka +500
Embiid +750
SGA +900
Giannis +1300
Tatum +1400
Haliburton +1800
Edwards +3500
Booker +4000
Durant +4000

[CobraCommander]

About Luka's on/off, a recurring theme of statistical anomaly, he had negative on/off yesterday, in the previous game against the Grizzlies, Luka had a new born and missed the game, Mavs were much much healthier than this game, and they still lost, so how can it be they lose to a team w/o Luka but beat them with Luka having negative on/off?
In the 1st half, Luka rest coincided with Bane rest, and Derrick Rose/Jaylen Nowell ran the offense, Rose, bless his heart is totally cooked, and Jaden Hardy caught fire, hitting 3 3s, and Mavs were able to extend the lead, in the 4th, despite Luka already logging 32 minutes out of the 36 minutes, Kidd starts the 4th with him and backups (Markieff Morris and Dwight Powell, maybe 3rd stringers level players, Morris not even that), and Mavs struggle to maintain the lead, and keeping distance solely because Luka is doubled and the Mavs playing 4 on 3 with limited success, this tanked Luka's on off.
Just another example of negative on/off game that anyone who watched wouldn't even consider the possibility of Mavs being actually better w/o Luka, but it doesn't show in stat sheet.

1st. The people voting for mvp watch less games than us

2nd. It’s not a question of if mavs better without Luka...it’s pure on and off...which is impacted by score, coaching, who they playing etc..

Unfortunately I think right now the national narrative has shifted back to Embiid....w/Jokic in second and Giannis still 3rd...essentially it’s between Embiid and Jokic with Giannis needing to be in 1st place in east with outrageous stats to win.

Embiid has an uphill battle with the narrative this year after stealing the award last year. This year, if he wants to win he’s going to have to at a bare minimum be the clear best player and maybe have a larger margin over the 2nd guy than Jokic had over him last season. No one’s close to crowning him. He’s 4th in the poll here and 3rd in the betting odds. Here are the best available MVP odds right now for the top 10 candidates:

Jokic +185
Luka +500
Embiid +750
SGA +900
Giannis +1300
Tatum +1400
Haliburton +1800
Edwards +3500
Booker +4000
Durant +4000

Vegas goes with the money....people vote with their hearts - Do you think this is the actually outcome?

Look at the betting last year...did anyone have SGA 2 spots ahead of Luka?

I still think Luka could win..but if he doesn’t win he won’t be in top 3 or 4...

Embiid has a uphill battle but his numbers are insane and actually better than Lukas



I hate Embiid and don’t trust him at all in a big game but got dang his numbers are reallllly good -

[Cubbies2120]

Explain to me how not having a 1st all defense defender in Ben Simmons

Take the 2nd best player of your team and let me know how they'll do.

I know the Nuggets didn't have MPJ either, but I'd argue that SImmons was worth atleast 70-80% of MPJ and Murray combined, given that he was an all star.

So just to make sure I'm understanding...you're arguing for Simmons being an extremely valuable player, and putting down MPJ and Murray (given that he was worth 80% of BOTH of them combined), right?

I'd like to remember this for when we start talking about Embiid's playoff failures because he had no help (Even that "Extremely valuable player Simmons" counts as help!) and when people are arguing Jokic had a stacked roster becasue Murray performed great last year (But remember him and MPJ are only 80% of a Simmons, who couldn't help Embiid win it all). Just want to ensure we're being consistent in our arguments, that's all. I may have misunderstood your post, I'd be happy if you dumbed it down for a simple mind like mine

You are cherry picking what I said. I said until the playoffs.

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I didn't see that in your post. Realgm really needs a threading feature where I can see the 5 or 6 posts your arguments are in related to this topic, so I don't have to read 5k posts...because the post I responded to doesn't specify playoffs.

Cherry picking would be cutting out specific parts of your post, which I did not do.

You never responded to the other points I made - is there a reason? I'm just asking you to take a stance on these players values, and doing so may make you realize you've made some hypocritical points (as have I, so I'm trying to help someone else out too as I fix my own issues )

[eyeatoma]

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[iggymcfrack]

1st. The people voting for mvp watch less games than us

2nd. It’s not a question of if mavs better without Luka...it’s pure on and off...which is impacted by score, coaching, who they playing etc..

Unfortunately I think right now the national narrative has shifted back to Embiid....w/Jokic in second and Giannis still 3rd...essentially it’s between Embiid and Jokic with Giannis needing to be in 1st place in east with outrageous stats to win.

Embiid has an uphill battle with the narrative this year after stealing the award last year. This year, if he wants to win he’s going to have to at a bare minimum be the clear best player and maybe have a larger margin over the 2nd guy than Jokic had over him last season. No one’s close to crowning him. He’s 4th in the poll here and 3rd in the betting odds. Here are the best available MVP odds right now for the top 10 candidates:

Jokic +185
Luka +500
Embiid +750
SGA +900
Giannis +1300
Tatum +1400
Haliburton +1800
Edwards +3500
Booker +4000
Durant +4000

Vegas goes with the money....people vote with their hearts - Do you think this is the actually outcome?

Look at the betting last year...did anyone have SGA 2 spots ahead of Luka?

I still think Luka could win..but if he doesn’t win he won’t be in top 3 or 4...

Embiid has a uphill battle but his numbers are insane and actually better than Lukas



I hate Embiid and don’t trust him at all in a big game but got dang his numbers are reallllly good -

Luka's case fell apart last year when the Mavs missed the play-in. Otherwise, he certainly would have been a top 5 selection ahead of SGA. Embiid's numbers are very good and they're better than Luka's, but not better than Jokic's or SGA's.

Jokic: 14.2 BPM, +8.5 EPM, +21.4 on/off
SGA: 10.8 BPM, +9.7 EPM, +18.0 on/off
Embiid: 11.3 BPM, 8.9 EPM, +6.4 on/off

For Embiid to win this year, his case would have to be unassailable. He would need to lead in everything with the Sixers having a top 2 or 3 record in the league. Just leading the league in PPG, PER, and USG isn't going to cut it.

I wouldn't say I really expect Luka to have a high finish in the MVP race. I think the Mavs are going to fall off as a team over the course of the season, at least outside the top 6 if not the top 8. I think the general sentiment though that it's Jokic's race to lose and Embiid has about as good of a chance to pass him as SGA does is accurate though.

[Cubbies2120]

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He's playing incredible ball - if he can keep this up for an 82 game season, I'd have no issues giving him the MVP. It would be a far more deserving one than last year. He won't get the "Derrick Rose MVP" talk anymore.

[iggymcfrack]

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He's playing incredible ball - if he can keep this up for an 82 game season, I'd have no issues giving him the MVP. It would be a far more deserving one than last year. He won't get the "Derrick Rose MVP" talk anymore.

Is he better than last year? Yes. Is he closer to being the rightful MVP than he was last year? Yes. Has he been better than Jokic or SGA so far? I'd say unequivocally no. He's at best a push in box stats and he hasn't shown anywhere near the same impact plus he's missed more time.

[yannisk]

Jokic and Giannis are probably my two favorite players, while (from the mvp candidates) Embiid is certainly the one I dislike most.

But I have to say Embiid has played better than his already great play last season. He deserves the mvp award so far. Of course the season is still early, the other candidates are very close so everything can change. Maybe team success or the "narrative" will be the deciding factor

[CobraCommander]

Embiid has an uphill battle with the narrative this year after stealing the award last year. This year, if he wants to win he’s going to have to at a bare minimum be the clear best player and maybe have a larger margin over the 2nd guy than Jokic had over him last season. No one’s close to crowning him. He’s 4th in the poll here and 3rd in the betting odds. Here are the best available MVP odds right now for the top 10 candidates:

Jokic +185
Luka +500
Embiid +750
SGA +900
Giannis +1300
Tatum +1400
Haliburton +1800
Edwards +3500
Booker +4000
Durant +4000

Vegas goes with the money....people vote with their hearts - Do you think this is the actually outcome?

Look at the betting last year...did anyone have SGA 2 spots ahead of Luka?

I still think Luka could win..but if he doesn’t win he won’t be in top 3 or 4...

Embiid has a uphill battle but his numbers are insane and actually better than Lukas



I hate Embiid and don’t trust him at all in a big game but got dang his numbers are reallllly good -

Luka's case fell apart last year when the Mavs missed the play-in. Otherwise, he certainly would have been a top 5 selection ahead of SGA. Embiid's numbers are very good and they're better than Luka's, but not better than Jokic's or SGA's.

Jokic: 14.2 BPM, +8.5 EPM, +21.4 on/off
SGA: 10.8 BPM, +9.7 EPM, +18.0 on/off
Embiid: 11.3 BPM, 8.9 EPM, +6.4 on/off

For Embiid to win this year, his case would have to be unassailable. He would need to lead in everything with the Sixers having a top 2 or 3 record in the league. Just leading the league in PPG, PER, and USG isn't going to cut it.

I wouldn't say I really expect Luka to have a high finish in the MVP race. I think the Mavs are going to fall off as a team over the course of the season, at least outside the top 6 if not the top 8. I think the general sentiment though that it's Jokic's race to lose and Embiid has about as good of a chance to pass him as SGA does is accurate though.

As a gambler- Giannis and KD are the best bets-

Luka is a bad bet - not because he isnt a top 4 player (dude is right outside the Giannis,Jokic,Embiid group), it’s the everything you just said PLuS the value of the bet isn’t there.

If MVP was “Best player having the best year award” Luka would have a better chance....but it’s 100 dudes that watch less ball than me that are swayed by stories and market size...


No way Embiid wins...even with him having INSANE numbers. Putting up 50 on the wiz is like failing to put up 70...

[CobraCommander]

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He's playing incredible ball - if he can keep this up for an 82 game season, I'd have no issues giving him the MVP. It would be a far more deserving one than last year. He won't get the "Derrick Rose MVP" talk anymore.

Is he better than last year? Yes. Is he closer to being the rightful MVP than he was last year? Yes. Has he been better than Jokic or SGA so far? I'd say unequivocally no. He's at best a push in box stats and he hasn't shown anywhere near the same impact plus he's missed more time.

It’s hard to not say Embiid is better than last year -

BUT

does anyone think he is really the best player on earth? Like do you trust him in a big game ? No one does...

No way he wins back to back MVPs - even if he keeps having the best stats

[iggymcfrack]

Vegas goes with the money....people vote with their hearts - Do you think this is the actually outcome?

Look at the betting last year...did anyone have SGA 2 spots ahead of Luka?

I still think Luka could win..but if he doesn’t win he won’t be in top 3 or 4...

Embiid has a uphill battle but his numbers are insane and actually better than Lukas



I hate Embiid and don’t trust him at all in a big game but got dang his numbers are reallllly good -

Luka's case fell apart last year when the Mavs missed the play-in. Otherwise, he certainly would have been a top 5 selection ahead of SGA. Embiid's numbers are very good and they're better than Luka's, but not better than Jokic's or SGA's.

Jokic: 14.2 BPM, +8.5 EPM, +21.4 on/off
SGA: 10.8 BPM, +9.7 EPM, +18.0 on/off
Embiid: 11.3 BPM, 8.9 EPM, +6.4 on/off

For Embiid to win this year, his case would have to be unassailable. He would need to lead in everything with the Sixers having a top 2 or 3 record in the league. Just leading the league in PPG, PER, and USG isn't going to cut it.

I wouldn't say I really expect Luka to have a high finish in the MVP race. I think the Mavs are going to fall off as a team over the course of the season, at least outside the top 6 if not the top 8. I think the general sentiment though that it's Jokic's race to lose and Embiid has about as good of a chance to pass him as SGA does is accurate though.

As a gambler- Giannis and KD are the best bets-

Luka is a bad bet - not because he isnt a top 4 player (dude is right outside the Giannis,Jokic,Embiid group), it’s the everything you just said PLuS the value of the bet isn’t there.

If MVP was “Best player having the best year award” Luka would have a better chance....but it’s 100 dudes that watch less ball than me that are swayed by stories and market size...


No way Embiid wins...even with him having INSANE numbers. Putting up 50 on the wiz is like failing to put up 70...

Giannis has at least been getting better over the course of the season. I could see his numbers going up and the Bucks getting the 1 seed and him making a push. Lillard being a little bit of a disappointment could actually help him narrative wise. KD there's no way. He's shooting insanely, unsustainably hot, and he's still not top 8 in any advanced stats. The Suns have the 9th best record in the West and the 11th best SRS. I don't see any path.

I really don't see a ton of value on the board. If I had to bet at these odds, I'd take SGA. The Thunder only have the second best record in the West, but they have the best SRS. SGA's a young buck that should be able to play a lot of games and won't wear down over the course of the season. I would actually consider them the favorite to get the 1 seed in the West. Combine that with SGA putting up all-world numbers and I think he has a very good shot.

Luckily, I got my MVP bets in before the season. I got Jokic at +400, SGA at +1600, and Zion at +4500. 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

[CobraCommander]

Luka's case fell apart last year when the Mavs missed the play-in. Otherwise, he certainly would have been a top 5 selection ahead of SGA. Embiid's numbers are very good and they're better than Luka's, but not better than Jokic's or SGA's.

Jokic: 14.2 BPM, +8.5 EPM, +21.4 on/off
SGA: 10.8 BPM, +9.7 EPM, +18.0 on/off
Embiid: 11.3 BPM, 8.9 EPM, +6.4 on/off

For Embiid to win this year, his case would have to be unassailable. He would need to lead in everything with the Sixers having a top 2 or 3 record in the league. Just leading the league in PPG, PER, and USG isn't going to cut it.

I wouldn't say I really expect Luka to have a high finish in the MVP race. I think the Mavs are going to fall off as a team over the course of the season, at least outside the top 6 if not the top 8. I think the general sentiment though that it's Jokic's race to lose and Embiid has about as good of a chance to pass him as SGA does is accurate though.

As a gambler- Giannis and KD are the best bets-

Luka is a bad bet - not because he isnt a top 4 player (dude is right outside the Giannis,Jokic,Embiid group), it’s the everything you just said PLuS the value of the bet isn’t there.

If MVP was “Best player having the best year award” Luka would have a better chance....but it’s 100 dudes that watch less ball than me that are swayed by stories and market size...


No way Embiid wins...even with him having INSANE numbers. Putting up 50 on the wiz is like failing to put up 70...

Giannis has at least been getting better over the course of the season. I could see his numbers going up and the Bucks getting the 1 seed and him making a push. Lillard being a little bit of a disappointment could actually help him narrative wise. KD there's no way. He's shooting insanely, unsustainably hot, and he's still not top 8 in any advanced stats. The Suns have the 9th best record in the West and the 11th best SRS. I don't see any path.

I really don't see a ton of value on the board. If I had to bet at these odds, I'd take SGA. The Thunder only have the second best record in the West, but they have the best SRS. SGA's a young buck that should be able to play a lot of games and won't wear down over the course of the season. I would actually consider them the favorite to get the 1 seed in the West. Combine that with SGA putting up all-world numbers and I think he has a very good shot.

Luckily, I got my MVP bets in before the season. I got Jokic at +400, SGA at +1600, and Zion at +4500. 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

Giannis is still good value and I need Lukas odds to get better.. I bet Luka as mvp last year and got slapped back.

[iggymcfrack]

He's playing incredible ball - if he can keep this up for an 82 game season, I'd have no issues giving him the MVP. It would be a far more deserving one than last year. He won't get the "Derrick Rose MVP" talk anymore.

Is he better than last year? Yes. Is he closer to being the rightful MVP than he was last year? Yes. Has he been better than Jokic or SGA so far? I'd say unequivocally no. He's at best a push in box stats and he hasn't shown anywhere near the same impact plus he's missed more time.

It’s hard to not say Embiid is better than last year -

BUT

does anyone think he is really the best player on earth? Like do you trust him in a big game ? No one does...

No way he wins back to back MVPs - even if he keeps having the best stats

There's no "keep having the best stats". He doesn't have the best stats. That's Jokic.

BPM leaders
Jokic 14.2 (1 game missed)
Embiid 11.3 (3 games missed)
SGA 10.8 (1 game missed)
Hali 10.7 (2 games missed)
LeBron 8.8 (1 game missed)
Luka 8.6 (1 game missed)

BPM's the best box metric we have and Jokic's BPM right now is #5 all-time and the highest since Kawhi in 2016-17. Embiid's BPM is closer to Luka's in 6th than Jokic's in 1st and he's sat out more than any of the other top contenders.

[eyeatoma]

So just to make sure I'm understanding...you're arguing for Simmons being an extremely valuable player, and putting down MPJ and Murray (given that he was worth 80% of BOTH of them combined), right?

I'd like to remember this for when we start talking about Embiid's playoff failures because he had no help (Even that "Extremely valuable player Simmons" counts as help!) and when people are arguing Jokic had a stacked roster becasue Murray performed great last year (But remember him and MPJ are only 80% of a Simmons, who couldn't help Embiid win it all). Just want to ensure we're being consistent in our arguments, that's all. I may have misunderstood your post, I'd be happy if you dumbed it down for a simple mind like mine

You are cherry picking what I said. I said until the playoffs.

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I didn't see that in your post. Realgm really needs a threading feature where I can see the 5 or 6 posts your arguments are in related to this topic, so I don't have to read 5k posts...because the post I responded to doesn't specify playoffs.

Cherry picking would be cutting out specific parts of your post, which I did not do.

You never responded to the other points I made - is there a reason? I'm just asking you to take a stance on these players values, and doing so may make you realize you've made some hypocritical points (as have I, so I'm trying to help someone else out too as I fix my own issues )

Dude it is clear as day what you're trying to do. Also, I've interacted with you for a few years and I know exactly what your intentions are. This Mr. Nice guys persona you have tried to don since the new thread has started isn't fooling me.

Your cloying and its very evident. I think you know exactly what I mean.

[eyeatoma]

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