NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread)

[DrModesty]

Can you tell us why you think SGA is clearly out in front of Giannis, without referring to age?

Shai has the lead over Giannis in basically every metric available right now can be a good reason.

EPM has Shai at +10.1 vs Giannis' 7.3.

Win Shares is at +7.9 vs +6.5.

VORP is at +3.9 vs +3.3

And Shai is actually having a more *efficient* season compared to Giannis, which is purely insane for a guard, while providing nearly identical scoring.

it'd be hard to make a case for Giannis over SGA currently, though i'd love to hear some concrete thoughts about this. You being a Bucks fan, why would you put him over SGA?

Even outside of the advanced stats

Looking at their advantages shooting at distances via BBRef:

0-3 ft: Giannis + 7%
3-10 ft: SGA + 4.5%
10-16 ft: SGA + 13%
16-3P ft: SGA + 26%
3P: SGA + 10%
Free Throws: SGA + 21%

Assist/Turnover ratio: Giannis 1.6 - SGA 3.2

Stocks: Giannis 2.5 - SGA 3.1

I think the big thing is that SGA doesn't really have proper weaknesses. He can score from anywhere, play-make at a high level, defend at a high level, is very secure with the ball and is absolutely dynamite in the clutch.

[ChartFiction]

I think the big thing is that SGA doesn't really have proper weaknesses. He can score from anywhere, play-make at a high level, defend at a high level, is very secure with the ball and is absolutely dynamite in the clutch.

Also does very well in non-traditionally tracked stats

2nd in league in recovering loose balls per game
1st in league in deflections per game

[WhatTheBuck]

Can you tell us why you think SGA is clearly out in front of Giannis, without referring to age?

Shai has the lead over Giannis in basically every metric available right now can be a good reason.

EPM has Shai at +10.1 vs Giannis' 7.3.

Win Shares is at +7.9 vs +6.5.

VORP is at +3.9 vs +3.3

And Shai is actually having a more *efficient* season compared to Giannis, which is purely insane for a guard, while providing nearly identical scoring.

it'd be hard to make a case for Giannis over SGA currently, though i'd love to hear some concrete thoughts about this. You being a Bucks fan, why would you put him over SGA?

Well, let's start with rebounding. Giannis is clearly better at that.

Then let's move to defending in the interior. GIannis has the clear advantage there too.

Then let's talk about the gravitational pull that makes it easier for teammates to score. I think Giannis simply draws more attention and more resources need to be implemented to slow him down compared to Shai.

Then let's talk about 4th quarter scoring. Giannis is better at that. Meaning at the business end, he does more.

Then we can talk about putting the other team in foul trouble. Again, Giannis wins there.

Then let's talk about physically taxing opponents. Again, Giannis does that, which makes it easier to break teams down late in games.

[NBA4Lyfe]

8th straight year James Harden finds himself on basketball reference top 10 mvp tracker

guess embiid fell off the list due to qualification

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

[WhatTheBuck]

I think Jokic and SGA are pretty clearly out in front right now. Giannis is probably next in line.

Even if Embiid gets to 65 games, I'm not sure he's going to have been that much better than the aforementioned guys if they play 75+. It's too big a gap.

Can you tell us why you think SGA is clearly out in front of Giannis, without referring to age?

A couple of reasons.

Firstly, it's pretty hard to find a meaningful metric that SGA isn't ahead in. He is a primary ballhandler who doesn't turn it over, plays both ends and scores at mind-boggling efficiency.

Secondly, there is a narrative there. Milwaukee were expected to be among the best teams in the league, especially after adding Lillard. OKC on the other hand are probably ahead of schedule, as I suspect most would have had them as a 5/6 seed at best at this stage of their development. That's not necessarily fair as Milwaukee are a perennial contender because of Giannis, but voters are generally lazy and look for angles.

I should add that when I say I think those two are out in front, that's my view on how I think the voting would go if the season ended now, not necessarily what I think (I personally have Jokic comfortably first).

I get the narrative point, and the expectations, but the reality is the Bucks have been a complete schit show and Giannis has been breaking his back to keep them on track. Bucks fans who have been following us this year will attest to that.

OKC have been a surprise packet, and SGA has been a huge reason for that, but if that's the criteria might as well give it to Anthony Edwards.

[QPR]

But Edwards isn't having close to the individual season SGA is.

Shai's individual metrics alone put him in the conversation. The fact that OKC are ahead of schedule just adds to his candidacy.

[flaco]

Can you tell us why you think SGA is clearly out in front of Giannis, without referring to age?

Shai has the lead over Giannis in basically every metric available right now can be a good reason.

EPM has Shai at +10.1 vs Giannis' 7.3.

Win Shares is at +7.9 vs +6.5.

VORP is at +3.9 vs +3.3

And Shai is actually having a more *efficient* season compared to Giannis, which is purely insane for a guard, while providing nearly identical scoring.

it'd be hard to make a case for Giannis over SGA currently, though i'd love to hear some concrete thoughts about this. You being a Bucks fan, why would you put him over SGA?

Well, let's start with rebounding. Giannis is clearly better at that.

Then let's move to defending in the interior. GIannis has the clear advantage there too.

Then let's talk about the gravitational pull that makes it easier for teammates to score. I think Giannis simply draws more attention and more resources need to be implemented to slow him down compared to Shai.

Then let's talk about 4th quarter scoring. Giannis is better at that. Meaning at the business end, he does more.

Then we can talk about putting the other team in foul trouble. Again, Giannis wins there.

Then let's talk about physically taxing opponents. Again, Giannis does that, which makes it easier to break teams down late in games.

You are arguing Giannis is a better player, whereas lethalizer is arguing SGA deserves more the MVP this season. The best player doesn't necessarily win the MVP. If the question is who's the best player, I think the answer is Jokic.

[yannisk]

Let's look at the mvp candidates

Tatum best player on the best team but the other candidates have clear advantage in statistics

Doncic very good stats but not as good as the top guys, his team is a play-in team at the moment

Giannis his team is second in the east (but that was expected) does not impress defensively as in years past, very good stats

Shai great stats, his team overachieves, has not won before.

Jokic, another great year, I don't know what to say about him apart from that he doesn't seem to care much about the award and could have some games taking 5 shots or something

Embiid, great stats, very good team record. He does not play enough. I won't rate him at this moment since he does not play as much as the other guys. If that changes in the second half of the season he is one of the frontrunners.


So for me at the moment there are three candidates with Shai and Jokic clear ahead and Giannis a bit behind. If mvp fatigue plays a role and the narrative shifts to the OKC ascendancy Shai should be the frontrunner.

Doncic could get involved if the team record improves drastically and Embiid if he plays almost all of the remaining games

[WhatTheBuck]

Shai has the lead over Giannis in basically every metric available right now can be a good reason.

EPM has Shai at +10.1 vs Giannis' 7.3.

Win Shares is at +7.9 vs +6.5.

VORP is at +3.9 vs +3.3

And Shai is actually having a more *efficient* season compared to Giannis, which is purely insane for a guard, while providing nearly identical scoring.

it'd be hard to make a case for Giannis over SGA currently, though i'd love to hear some concrete thoughts about this. You being a Bucks fan, why would you put him over SGA?

Well, let's start with rebounding. Giannis is clearly better at that.

Then let's move to defending in the interior. GIannis has the clear advantage there too.

Then let's talk about the gravitational pull that makes it easier for teammates to score. I think Giannis simply draws more attention and more resources need to be implemented to slow him down compared to Shai.

Then let's talk about 4th quarter scoring. Giannis is better at that. Meaning at the business end, he does more.

Then we can talk about putting the other team in foul trouble. Again, Giannis wins there.

Then let's talk about physically taxing opponents. Again, Giannis does that, which makes it easier to break teams down late in games.

You are arguing Giannis is a better player, whereas lethalizer is arguing SGA deserves more the MVP this season. The best player doesn't necessarily win the MVP. If the question is who's the best player, I think the answer is Jokic.

I am arguing that Giannis does more for his team, this year included.

Disagree with Jokic being better than Giannis, especially when we consider two-way impact, but I guess I'm in the minority on that one these days too.

[lethalizer]

OKC have been a surprise packet, and SGA has been a huge reason for that, but if that's the criteria might as well give it to Anthony Edwards.

Come on man, I was genuinely interested in your opinion and was willing to have a proper debate, but you had to go ahead and write this.

I really don't think you realize what kind of a season Shai is currently having.

You think the guy on the right here should get MVP over the guy on the left?

https://stathead.com/tiny/5umf7

[WhatTheBuck]

But Edwards isn't having close to the individual season SGA is.

Shai's individual metrics alone put him in the conversation. The fact that OKC are ahead of schedule just adds to his candidacy.

You are right. I guess I've got a chip on my shoulder because I think Giannis gets undervalued.

Like saying Shai is clearly ahead of him just doesn't sit well with me.

[WhatTheBuck]

OKC have been a surprise packet, and SGA has been a huge reason for that, but if that's the criteria might as well give it to Anthony Edwards.

Come on man, I was genuinely interested in your opinion and was willing to have a proper debate, but you had to go ahead and write this.

I really don't think you realize what kind of a season Shai is currently having.

You think the guy on the right here should get MVP over the guy on the left?

https://stathead.com/tiny/5umf7

Obviously Ant isn't having a better year. I was merely making a point of not over-emphasising the "suprise" factor in the team standings as a reason for awarding Shai the MVP.

[lethalizer]

OKC have been a surprise packet, and SGA has been a huge reason for that, but if that's the criteria might as well give it to Anthony Edwards.

Come on man, I was genuinely interested in your opinion and was willing to have a proper debate, but you had to go ahead and write this.

I really don't think you realize what kind of a season Shai is currently having.

You think the guy on the right here should get MVP over the guy on the left?

https://stathead.com/tiny/5umf7

Obviously Ant isn't having a better year. I was merely making a point of not over-emphasising the "suprise" factor in the team standings as a reason for awarding Shai the MVP.

It's just one of the factors. The main factors I already listed in my first comment. The only two arguments there can be made for Giannis are the team being so bad at defense yet they're still pulling out wins, which is a hard one to make when you just acquired Dame this season, and him being a more impactful defender than Shai maybe. Every other thing Shai "currently" has a lead on Giannis. Things are subject to change of course.

You even listed 4th quarter scoring there, i don't think you pay attention to OKC at all. Should Giannis lose MVP points because he hasn't scored a single point in the 4th quarter against the Celtics the other day?

[Infinite Llamas]

1 Jokic
1A SGA
2 Giannis

It will come down to has the better record between SGA and Jokic. I’m pretty sure that’s how this thing is going to play out.

[Dadouv47]

Shai got the individual stats, team success and narrative to win MVP. OKC likely gonna have some downs with a very tough schedule coming but if somehow we manage to stay top 2 in the West, I think he wins it.

[Wolfgang630]

Tatum might never win mvp when you see that the starting 5 for Boston could all be All Stars.

[TinmanZBoy]

Is Joel going to play on Tuesday?

[iggymcfrack]

Tatum might never win mvp when you see that the starting 5 for Boston could all be All Stars.

Honestly I’m not sure he’s even been the most valuable Celtic this year:

Tatum: 22.1 PER on .613 TS%, .181 WS/48, 5.2 BPM, +3.8 on/off, 4.6 EPM
Porzingis: 22.3 PER on .653,TS%, .222 WS/48, 5.1 BPM, +2.6 on/off, 4.7 EPM
White: 17.8 PER on .632 TS%, .185 WS/48, 4.5 BPM, +14.9 on/off, +5.1 EPM

Granted, he has a large minutes edge on Porzingis and a small minutes edge on White, but he’s no longer the clearcut MVP of the team. The Celtics are probably the most balanced team in the league.

[Wolfgang630]

Is Joel going to play on Tuesday?

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=XO0PgrZjS-uU8MmGKL8grQ

He practiced so it looks better than it did before.

[GrandTheftRondo]

The Tatum stuff just reminds me of the Booker narrative a couple years ago. Like, sorry, just because your team has the best record doesn't automatically make you a top MVP candidate. Tatum's a great player, but he's not on the tier of the true franchise-carrying superstars right now (Jokic, Giannis, SGA, Embiid, Luka) and that's not an insult. The current NBA Mt. Rushmore is just ridiculously stacked right now.

As someone who has watched every game of Brown and Tatums career, it’s hard at this point to not realize that they are both sort of holding the other back. Their games don’t compliment the other at all and both are rarely “on” the same game. Their skill sets often seem redundant and while they struggle with different things…Brown with playmaking and ball handling and Tatum with an often perplexing shot selection, they do little to help the other when one is playing poorly.

Tatum does a lot of incredible things but he’s also moody and prone to slumps. Some nights he looks like a world beater and other nights he looks like a solid all star. I just think it’s a mindset thing with him and maybe being on consistent Celtic teams loaded with talent has had an effect on things too. He’s never had to put a team on his back for long stretches of time and that’s why it might seem like his game has plateaued a bit. I’ve always wondered what his game would look like if Brown had to miss a month or something…how aggressive would he become?

Fantastic player all in all, but not consistent enough to truly be in that MVP tier with other guys shouldering more of a load.

Tatum was first team all NBA last season. Was incredibly consistent.

He has never really played on a team though who demands he put up absurd numbers every night so I think that has and always will hold him back in MVP conversations.

It was the same with KD in OKC. The narrative didn’t really change with him until Westbrook went down in 2014 and he went on an offensive tear.

Even on some of the weaker rosters he’s been on, they’ve generally always had a strong defensive identity so they can win even if he isn’t going off.