2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 3-0)

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Who wins Game 3 of the NBA Finals?

Celtics
113
64%
Mavericks
64
36%
 
Total votes: 177

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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#181 » by Bob8 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 10:56 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:I don't know what you're even arguing, or who you're arguing against.

The Celtics defense was great and the Mavs shooters failed to make their open 3s. Both things can be true.

Dallas's defense allowed 18 wide-open 3s and 16 open 3s. Boston's defense allowed 11 wide-open 3s and 12 open 3s. The volume isn't remotely comparable. That's before even factoring in the quality of shooters, which is superior on Boston's side for those types of shots.

So again, Boston had a better process when it comes to their defense in terms of allowing 3s.

As far as point #3, the comment isn't about man defense when contesting the shot. It's about being unable to contain dribble penetration, which leads to the defense collapsing and leaving elite shooters open. Tatum got 12 assists largely off of those drives.


Mavs players didn't shoot 11% for 3 because of good D or because they're that bad, but because it was off night for them. The same goes for Kyrie.

Mavs got Kyrie to lower Luka's workload. The problem is that Kyrie is awful. You can't expect from Luka or anyone else to do everything in offense, scoring and playmaking and play good D. Mavs need normal Kyrie more than anything.

And Luka had 11 assists, while being defended great. If you blame Tatum's assists on Luka, you should blame Luka's assists and great shooting on someone too. Or admit that Tatum is few levels worse offensive player than Luka.

Luka's a better offensive player than Tatum. Most people know this. I don't need to "admit" that when criticizing Luka's defense. This is juvenile stuff.

Luka's a great player and he deserves to be held to a high standard. His defense in game 2 was awful.

There's no need to point out Kyrie's anemic performance to distract from that fact. Both things can be true and people have the right to highlight the issues they find most interesting.


Tell me, could Tatum play the same D, if the whole workload was on him? Btw. who's Tatum mostly guarding? Not Luka and Kyrie. There's no player in the league that can do everything in offensive side, while being targeted constantly in D. Mavs have game plan for this situation, Luka just directs opponents to help D and rotate to perimeter. Does someone really expect that Luka should do everything in offense and constantly and successfully defend Tatum and Brown?
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#182 » by Slax » Tue Jun 11, 2024 10:59 pm

canada_dry wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:
canada_dry wrote:A better team like a healthy team out east maybe. Or another one of the western conference teams that got beat by a team that dallas matched up better against.

Denver comes to mind.

Maybe a healthy luka could have made em die by the 3 tonight.

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The idea that there was a team in the East that could compete with the Celtics when healthy is silly. The Celtics dominated the East from start to finish. The only teams that bothered the Celtics all season were OKC, Minnesota and Denver. None of them were beat up and all were dispatched with ease in the West conference playoffs.
I don't really think so myself. I think the celtics were the best team especially with the bucks and sixers out of the conversation.

I think the point remains that they haven't played a caliber of team that could make them pay for their over reliance on 3 point shooting on nights those shots aren't falling, like game 2.

So it doesn't really prove the criticism of being too reliant on the 3 untrue imo. Its untested against the top teams.

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"The three point shot is high variance, and it's a hypothetical possibility that a team that depends on it could fail to hit a bunch of shots at the rate they usually hit them and then lose to a comparably talented opponent that plays well in the same game" is an utterly banal observation that comes true all the time, and also the year is 2024 and the three point shot is a critical part of every team's offensive production.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#183 » by Bob8 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:05 pm

SweetTouch wrote:titles are won by some luck and when it comes to luck most of it comes down to players being available

porzingis being out changes everything, in 52 minutes with porzingis on the bench the +/- is even

mavs are ready now with no vaseline

At the end of day injuries happen in sports all the time


KP is in Boston because he's Mr. Glass.it's what it's.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#184 » by inquisitive » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:10 pm

Mavs take game 3 and Kyrie has a big game finally.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#185 » by Chanel Bomber » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:10 pm

Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:Leaving Derrick Jones Jr, Josh Green and PJ Washington wide-open from 3 isn't the same as leaving Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser wide-open from 3.

Neither team shot well on their wide-open 3s. But considering the shot volume disparity (18 3FGAs for Boston to 11 for Dallas on wide-open 3s), and also the quality of shooters, one could argue that Boston left more points on the table due to their bad shooting than Dallas, even if at face value Dallas shot a worse percentage on lower volume.


Difference is that Jrue and White made 6 3s, DJJ, PJ and Josh made 1.

I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#186 » by Triple M » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:15 pm

If Dallas game plan is to defend the rim then they arent really doing that either because the Celtics are close to 80% on fg% at the rim. Obviously i dont expect Dal players outside Luka to shoot 11% but the Celtics will continue to test those players, especially in the areas where they arent comfortable.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#187 » by Chanel Bomber » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:15 pm

Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Mavs players didn't shoot 11% for 3 because of good D or because they're that bad, but because it was off night for them. The same goes for Kyrie.

Mavs got Kyrie to lower Luka's workload. The problem is that Kyrie is awful. You can't expect from Luka or anyone else to do everything in offense, scoring and playmaking and play good D. Mavs need normal Kyrie more than anything.

And Luka had 11 assists, while being defended great. If you blame Tatum's assists on Luka, you should blame Luka's assists and great shooting on someone too. Or admit that Tatum is few levels worse offensive player than Luka.

Luka's a better offensive player than Tatum. Most people know this. I don't need to "admit" that when criticizing Luka's defense. This is juvenile stuff.

Luka's a great player and he deserves to be held to a high standard. His defense in game 2 was awful.

There's no need to point out Kyrie's anemic performance to distract from that fact. Both things can be true and people have the right to highlight the issues they find most interesting.


Tell me, could Tatum play the same D, if the whole workload was on him? Btw. who's Tatum mostly guarding? Not Luka and Kyrie. There's no player in the league that can do everything in offensive side, while being targeted constantly in D. Mavs have game plan for this situation, Luka just directs opponents to help D and rotate to perimeter. Does someone really expect that Luka should do everything in offense and constantly and successfully defend Tatum and Brown?

We have seen heliocentric offensive superstars play their part on defense, including recently Curry in 2022 and Jokic in 2023. I do not buy that excuse.

Luka doesn't need to be a difference-maker on defense, and I don't expect him to be, but he was a complete liability in game 2.

I don't need to address Tatum in my criticism of Luka's defense. I haven't praised Tatum or compared him to Luka.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#188 » by Bob8 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:17 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:Leaving Derrick Jones Jr, Josh Green and PJ Washington wide-open from 3 isn't the same as leaving Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser wide-open from 3.

Neither team shot well on their wide-open 3s. But considering the shot volume disparity (18 3FGAs for Boston to 11 for Dallas on wide-open 3s), and also the quality of shooters, one could argue that Boston left more points on the table due to their bad shooting than Dallas, even if at face value Dallas shot a worse percentage on lower volume.


Difference is that Jrue and White made 6 3s, DJJ, PJ and Josh made 1.

I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


I would say that Kyrie is better shooter than anyone from Celtics, he's 0/7 on open 3s. Second incredible number is, that Luka made 8 3s, all other Mavs only 5 in 2 games. No one more than 1 in 2 games. Mavs might be worse shooters than Celtics, but they still made 3rd most 3s in RS.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#189 » by rapstarter » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:22 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:Leaving Derrick Jones Jr, Josh Green and PJ Washington wide-open from 3 isn't the same as leaving Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser wide-open from 3.

Neither team shot well on their wide-open 3s. But considering the shot volume disparity (18 3FGAs for Boston to 11 for Dallas on wide-open 3s), and also the quality of shooters, one could argue that Boston left more points on the table due to their bad shooting than Dallas, even if at face value Dallas shot a worse percentage on lower volume.


Difference is that Jrue and White made 6 3s, DJJ, PJ and Josh made 1.

I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in the RS. Besides, 2-8 is literally just over 1 shot difference vs. 40%, and within 1 standard deviation.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#190 » by Chanel Bomber » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:25 pm

Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Difference is that Jrue and White made 6 3s, DJJ, PJ and Josh made 1.

I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


I would say that Kyrie is better shooter than anyone from Celtics, he's 0/7 on open 3s. Second incredible number is, that Luka made 8 3s, all other Mavs only 5 in 2 games. No one more than 1 in 2 games. Mavs might be worse shooters than Celtics, but they still made 3rd most 3s in RS.

The Mavs are having their issues on offense. I don't need to be convinced of that, I'm well aware of that.

They also had major issues on defense in game 2, and to pretend they did not just because 3-point variance happened to smile upon them defensively would be either blind or uninformed.

And again, there's a nuance between overall 3s and wide-open 3s.

Dallas allowed an outsize amount of wide-open 3s (the highest-percentage ones) to elite wide-open shooters all game long. The process was catastrophic, and a byproduct of their inability to contain dribble penetration. The only reason they "got away with it" in game 2 was statistical variance.

But they were horrible defensively, and it started with Luka. Irving was also a liability.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#191 » by Bob8 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:26 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:Luka's a better offensive player than Tatum. Most people know this. I don't need to "admit" that when criticizing Luka's defense. This is juvenile stuff.

Luka's a great player and he deserves to be held to a high standard. His defense in game 2 was awful.

There's no need to point out Kyrie's anemic performance to distract from that fact. Both things can be true and people have the right to highlight the issues they find most interesting.


Tell me, could Tatum play the same D, if the whole workload was on him? Btw. who's Tatum mostly guarding? Not Luka and Kyrie. There's no player in the league that can do everything in offensive side, while being targeted constantly in D. Mavs have game plan for this situation, Luka just directs opponents to help D and rotate to perimeter. Does someone really expect that Luka should do everything in offense and constantly and successfully defend Tatum and Brown?

We have seen heliocentric offensive superstars play their part on defense, including recently Curry in 2022 and Jokic in 2023. I do not buy that excuse.

Luka doesn't need to be a difference-maker on defense, and I don't expect him to be, but he was a complete liability in game 2.

I don't need to address Tatum in my criticism of Luka's defense. I haven't praised Tatum or compared him to Luka.


Liability or not. Celtics didn't do much with it. They had 110 net rtg and Luka's def rtg was 107. I'm not saying that he was good in D, I'm saying that Mavs D was good enough to win, if they could hit some shots.

Curry is hardly good defender, but Warriors were always great defensive team. Celtics with Jrue and KP are much better team than in 22.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#192 » by Bob8 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:32 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


I would say that Kyrie is better shooter than anyone from Celtics, he's 0/7 on open 3s. Second incredible number is, that Luka made 8 3s, all other Mavs only 5 in 2 games. No one more than 1 in 2 games. Mavs might be worse shooters than Celtics, but they still made 3rd most 3s in RS.

The Mavs are having their issues on offense. I don't need to be convinced of that, I'm well aware of that.

They also had major issues on defense in game 2, and to pretend they did not just because 3-point variance happened to smile upon them defensively would be either blind or uninformed.

And again, there's a nuance between overall 3s and wide-open 3s.

Dallas allowed an outsize amount of wide-open 3s (the highest-percentage ones) to elite wide-open shooters all game long. The process was catastrophic, and a byproduct of their inability to contain dribble penetration. The only reason they "got away with it" in game 2 was statistical variance.

But they were horrible defensively, and it started with Luka. Irving was also a liability.


It doesn't matter why Celtics scored only 105, they did, and the game was for taking, but unfortunately Mavs role players and Kyrie hit only 11% of open 3s, which is absurdly bad. 2 made 3. Mavs wouldn't be in the Final, if Kyrie and role players were that bad in Minnesota series.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#193 » by Chanel Bomber » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:37 pm

rapstarter wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Difference is that Jrue and White made 6 3s, DJJ, PJ and Josh made 1.

I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in the RS. Besides, 2-8 is literally just over 1 shot difference vs. 40%, and within 1 standard deviation.

Just over 1 shot still represents over 3 raw points. It's not insignificant in a Finals game.

The point is Jrue, White, Horford, Hauser, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS, and they collectively shot 29.4% on 17 wide-open 3s in game 2. So Boston left a number of points on the table there (approximately 6 points, which is significant).

Anyway, circling back to the original point, Dallas's defense allowed an outsize amount of wide-open 3s to elite wide-open shooters due to their inability to stop dribble penetration, and it could have hurt them more than it already did if Boston had converted those shots at a near-average clip (for them). Dallas's defense in game 2 looks much more porous once we start looking at the process moreso than the outcome.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#194 » by Riverwalk2021 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:38 pm

I think the Celtics blow Dallas out of their own gym tomorrow with a 3pt barrage sending Celtic haters into a frenzy.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#195 » by rapstarter » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:39 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
rapstarter wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in the RS. Besides, 2-8 is literally just over 1 shot difference vs. 40%, and within 1 standard deviation.

Just over 1 shot still represents over 3 raw points. It's not insignificant in a Finals game.

The point is Jrue, White, Horford, Hauser, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS, and they collectively shot 29.4% on 17 wide-open 3s in game 2. So Boston left a number of points on the table there (approximately 6 points, which is significant).

Anyway, circling back to the original point, Dallas's defense allowed an outsize amount of wide-open 3s to elite wide-open shooters due to their inability to stop dribble penetration, and it could have hurt them more than it already did if Boston had converted those shots at a near-average clip (for them). Dallas's defense in game 2 looks much more porous once we start looking at the process moreso than the outcome.


The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in both the RS and the playoffs.

Games 1 + 2:

Dallas - 6/24 from wide open 3s
Boston - 13/36 from wide open 3s.

Even if we assume 35% for Dallas and 40% for Boston (which is a larger gap than the actual RS and playoffs #s), statistically Dallas shooting 6/24 is slightly worse than Boston shooting 13/36. And making 1 less shot from 8 shots than you are expected to is hardly a statistical abnormality.

Dallas who usually shoot close to 39% from wide open 3s shot 18% (2 from 11) in Game 2.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#196 » by Bob8 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:41 pm

Chanel Bomber wrote:
rapstarter wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:I was talking about wide-open 3s, not 3s in general.

Maybe the fact that they're better shooters helps explain that White and Jrue made more wide-open 3s (3 of 9) than the collection of Jones, Washington and Green?

And Boston could have still made more wide-open 3s.

Hauser, Horford, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS and they shot 2-8 in game 2.

Dallas left wide open 3s to ELITE shooters all game long due to the defense collapsing off Boston's dribble penetration. You can't just look at percentages at a surface level without accounting for shot type, volume and also the level of shooters involved.


The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in the RS. Besides, 2-8 is literally just over 1 shot difference vs. 40%, and within 1 standard deviation.

Just over 1 shot still represents over 3 raw points. It's not insignificant in a Finals game.

The point is Jrue, White, Horford, Hauser, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS, and they collectively shot 29.4% on 17 wide-open 3s in game 2. So Boston left a number of points on the table there (approximately 6 points, which is significant).

Anyway, circling back to the original point, Dallas's defense allowed an outsize amount of wide-open 3s to elite wide-open shooters due to their inability to stop dribble penetration, and it could have hurt them more than it already did if Boston had converted those shots at a near-average clip (for them). Dallas's defense in game 2 looks much more porous once we start looking at the process moreso than the outcome.


What is the point of talking about D, which should be bad, if Celtics could hit 3s well, if Mavs can't even score 100 points? Mavs are losing this series because of offense not because of D. And they won't win a single game if Kyrie continues averaging 14 points with Fg% 35 and 0% for 3.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#197 » by Chanel Bomber » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:51 pm

Bob8 wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Tell me, could Tatum play the same D, if the whole workload was on him? Btw. who's Tatum mostly guarding? Not Luka and Kyrie. There's no player in the league that can do everything in offensive side, while being targeted constantly in D. Mavs have game plan for this situation, Luka just directs opponents to help D and rotate to perimeter. Does someone really expect that Luka should do everything in offense and constantly and successfully defend Tatum and Brown?

We have seen heliocentric offensive superstars play their part on defense, including recently Curry in 2022 and Jokic in 2023. I do not buy that excuse.

Luka doesn't need to be a difference-maker on defense, and I don't expect him to be, but he was a complete liability in game 2.

I don't need to address Tatum in my criticism of Luka's defense. I haven't praised Tatum or compared him to Luka.


Liability or not. Celtics didn't do much with it. They had 110 net rtg and Luka's def rtg was 107. I'm not saying that he was good in D, I'm saying that Mavs D was good enough to win, if they could hit some shots.

Curry is hardly good defender, but Warriors were always great defensive team. Celtics with Jrue and KP are much better team than in 22.

Curry became a solid defender.

The Mavs outside of Luka obviously could've shot the ball better, and it might have been the difference between winning and losing this game. Kyrie in particular had an awful game. I don't expect Derrick Jones, or PJ Washington to be reliable from 3, so I'm not entirely surprised that they missed their wide-open looks, but them missing open looks definitely narrowed their chances to win the game.

The Mavs also could have taken their defense to another level with better defense from Luka, and won this game defensively. They didn't, and Luka's porous defense factors into that equation as well.

There are many factors that played into Dallas's loss, primarily Kyrie's anemic performance on both ends. Luka's not beyond criticism because of it - his shotmaking and playmaking singlehandedly kept Dallas afloat on offense (that much is true), but his defensive performance also cost Dallas defensively. Overall he was still their best player on the night. But I hold him to a high standard.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#198 » by Chanel Bomber » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:00 am

rapstarter wrote:
Chanel Bomber wrote:
rapstarter wrote:
The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in the RS. Besides, 2-8 is literally just over 1 shot difference vs. 40%, and within 1 standard deviation.

Just over 1 shot still represents over 3 raw points. It's not insignificant in a Finals game.

The point is Jrue, White, Horford, Hauser, Tatum, Pritchard all shot over 40% on wide-open 3s in the RS, and they collectively shot 29.4% on 17 wide-open 3s in game 2. So Boston left a number of points on the table there (approximately 6 points, which is significant).

Anyway, circling back to the original point, Dallas's defense allowed an outsize amount of wide-open 3s to elite wide-open shooters due to their inability to stop dribble penetration, and it could have hurt them more than it already did if Boston had converted those shots at a near-average clip (for them). Dallas's defense in game 2 looks much more porous once we start looking at the process moreso than the outcome.


The two teams were very similar in terms of frequency and FG% in wide open 3s in both the RS and the playoffs.

Games 1 + 2:

Dallas - 6/24 from wide open 3s
Boston - 13/36 from wide open 3s.

Even if we assume 35% for Dallas and 40% for Boston (which is a larger gap than the actual RS and playoffs #s), statistically Dallas shooting 6/24 is slightly worse than Boston shooting 13/36. And making 1 less shot from 8 shots than you are expected to is hardly a statistical abnormality.

Dallas who usually shoot close to 39% from wide open 3s shot 18% (2 from 11) in Game 2.

My point isn't that Boston lost an outsize amount of points off wide-open 3s compared to Dallas, but that they shot poorly on the wide-open 3s that Dallas allowed them in game 2, and that therefore they could have hurt Dallas's defense much more than they actually did.

The gap in frequency on such a high-percentage shot is non-negligeable too, if you assume regression to the mean.

Two more comments:
- my focus was on game 2 specifically, not the first two games of the series.
- who took those shots is also important in this discussion. Some coaches decide funnel to the worst open shooters, for instance. Dallas's percentages as a team in the RS doesn't matter much if (theoretical example to illustrate my point on the players) Boston decides to primarily leave Derrick Jones wide-open, for instance.

I don't think the defense Dallas played in game 2 is sustainable by any stretch. They need to do a better job of containing the drive.
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#199 » by zshawn10 » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:02 am

HotRocks34 wrote:
California Gold wrote:
HotRocks34 wrote:Luka's getting the job done and he's got to stay with it until some of his teammates join the party.

Read on Twitter


Except that Luka has been horrible on defense and one or two plays don't make up for all the bad ones where he looks like he isn't even trying. Prime Harden esque.

Even on plays where his man easily beats him he tries to reach for a steal the same way Harden used to do lazily. Hey.. sometimes it'll work and net in a turnover but just overall pathetic level of effort.


False.

Image

There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.


There’s a whole compliation someone posted here of Luka getting blown by for a minute straight
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Re: 2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 2-0) Game 3: Wednesday June 12 

Post#200 » by rapstarter » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:06 am

Chanel Bomber wrote:My point isn't that Boston lost an outsize amount of points off wide-open 3s compared to Dallas, but that they shot poorly on the wide-open 3s that Dallas allowed them in game 2, and that therefore they could have hurt Dallas's defense much more than they actually did.

The gap in frequency on such a high-percentage shot is non-negligeable too, if you assume regression to the mean.

Two more comments:
- my focus was on game 2 specifically, not the first two games of the series.
- who took those shots is also important in this discussion. Some coaches decide funnel to the worst open shooters, for instance. Dallas's percentages as a team in the RS doesn't matter much if (theoretical example to illustrate my point on the players) Boston decides to primarily leave Derrick Jones wide-open, for instance.

I don't think the defense Dallas played in game 2 is sustainable by any stretch. They need to do a better job of containing the drive.


Let's focus on Game 2:

0/1 - PJ Washington: 33% in RS
0/3 - Derrick Jones Jr: 35%
0/2 - Maxi Kleber: 39%
0/3 - Josh Green: 42%
1/1 - Luka Doncic: 46%
1/1 - Dante Exum: 53%

That's 2/11 (18%) from a group whose weighted average based on the above shot distribution is 41% from wide open 3s.

That's clearly worse than 6 from 18 from a group who shoots 43% from wide open 3s:

1/6 - Derrick White: 42%
2/3 - Jrue Holiday: 42%
0/3 - Sam Hauser: 45%
1/2 - Al Horford: 46%
1/2 - Jayson Tatum: 44%
1/1 - Jaylen Brown: 33%
0/1 - Payton Pritchard: 41%

Now, if we ignore RS and instead look at the playoffs #s, that Mavs group shot even better, and exceptionally well from wide open 3s.

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