2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #4 Denver Nuggets vs #5 LA Clippers (DEN leads 1-0)

[Woodsanity]

As for my prediction Nuggets in 7 largely due to how dog water the Nuggets roster is. If Murray actually shows up then in 6.

[Exp0sed]

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Both bigs have really held each other below their averages recently when matched up. What I’m curious about is with Zu finally getting touches and having an expanded offensive role if it’s the same.

Ps.. the Denver fan who kept denying him holding Jokic way below his norm on shooting here is some data.

Both bigs really seem to affect each other defensively.

Nurkic in Portland and Ayton in Phoenix were once "Jokic specialists", but when they met in the playoffs, it was a different story.

Yeah, but both low key suck
Zubac isn't a Jokic stopper or a Jokic specialist by any means...he's simply become an elite (top 5) Center and is very productive and highly impactful player. This production and impact can balance out and negate some of Jokic immense impact, paving the way for Kawhi, Harden and co, to outproduce and outplay all the non Jokic Nuggets, by more than how much Jokic can outplay Zu.



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[OkcSinceSGA]

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Both bigs have really held each other below their averages recently when matched up. What I’m curious about is with Zu finally getting touches and having an expanded offensive role if it’s the same.

Ps.. the Denver fan who kept denying him holding Jokic way below his norm on shooting here is some data.

Both bigs really seem to affect each other defensively.

Nurkic in Portland and Ayton in Phoenix were once "Jokic specialists", but when they met in the playoffs, it was a different story.

Yeah, but both low key suck
Zubac isn't a Jokic stopper or a Jokic specialist by any means...he's simply become an elite (top 5) Center and is very productive and highly impactful player. This production and impact can balance out and negate some of Jokic immense impact, paving the way for Kawhi, Harden and co, to outproduce and outplay all the non Jokic Nuggets, by more than how much Jokic can outplay Zu.



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Well.. I mean all of this data says otherwise. The 10 post ups TOTAL over 3 games when he averages 11.5 per game for example makes it clear that he’s completely changing how he plays vs the Clips. Where they got burned this year is no Kawhi in games and when Jokic is outside the paint they have given up the 3s.

If they emphasize heavily rotations defensively from 3 and not daring a very capable Jokic on wide open 3s they can cause him serious issues.

I do agree with the last part of the post though that it’s more about how much the team can outplay Jokic alone. I don’t believe Jokic will be stopped or anything but I do think he’s gonna be held below his averages. Something like 25 ppg on much lower shooting percentages is possible.

Zu is in the best shape of his career. Clips are peaking on both ends. If they just rotate well to 3 and not leave guys open in the corner (or in Jokic’s case top of the key open bailout 3’s), Clippers win in maybe 5-6.

[User_friendly]

I'm doing a poor job at casting my votes in this site. I keep picking the wrong vote. I meant to put Denver in 7 but chose Clips in 7.

You put the right one

[Scoundreldays]

Based on this poll and general media reaction, Clippers are pretty big favorites here.

I picked Clippers but imo I wouldn't be surprised with either team winning. Both have so many factors (Kawhi, Murray) that could easily swing the series in either direction.

[PeteyPablo]

Clippers in 6. Harden knows how to pick them apart particularly on Jokic. He has Zu as a lob threat offensively. Dunn will wreak havoc on Murray but they also have a long defender with Jones and overall a great defensive team. This is assuming the team stays healthy of course.

Let's see. From our side I think Braun and Watson will be more than enough to give Harden trouble. Should be a good series this. Lets hope for a consistant whistle and healty lineups for both teams.

Clippers Roster


Starters :

Kawhi Leonard 2 Finals MVP
James Harden Scoring Champ , Multiple All Star

Ivica Zubac has become a 20 and 10 Center
Norman Powell was averaging 24 ppg before missing 8 games after the All Star break ( he carried the Clippers before Kawhi got back )
Chris Dunn pesky defender and should be considered for DPOY


Bench :

Nic Batum can play all 5 positions and great 3pt shooter
Brogdan great 3pt shooter and can go for 20 pts each game off the bench
D Jones Jr Very athletic , can score from mid range , 3pt range , and is a beast around the rim
Ben Simmons point forward , rebounds, gets assists, plays defense


Tyrone Lue will probably stick to 8 or 9 man rotations.

[lebron stopper]

fwiw, the last time Kawhi and AG matched up in the playoffs (2019 first round), Kawhi averaged 27.8 ppg on 67.9% TS, USG of 31.9%. Only one bad scoring game out of five in that series. That was after averaging 18 ppg on 51.6% TS over 3 games against AG and the Magic (really good defensive team all around) in the 2018-19 regular season.

It's been 6 years, and so much has changed since then (including AG improving on the Nuggets, he is way better now), but if Kawhi truly is turning back the clock to 2019, I can't see AG doing much more than slowing him down slightly.

[OkcSinceSGA]

MPJ has got to show up. He’s so damn inconsistent. They need scoring badly from him. They need him to make his wide open shots. He’s getting paid all that money.

He will. He’s never had a bad game vs the Clips who slighted him in the draft and told other teams his back was cooked. His career best averages are vs the Clippers I bet.

[JM00n69]

Jokic is a legendary-level offensive dynamo, but he remains a poor fit in today's NBA. A center who is a defensive liability (or relatively easy to exploit) is a huge handicap, detracting from his overall impact. I think the Clippers win this in 6.

He's not even close to even being the worst defender on his own team. Swap SGA with Jokic and the Thunder would still be a top 5 defensive team.

If you swap SGA for Jokic start of this season OKC would be same or better now but Denver obviously would be worse with SGA instead of Jokic. OKC is a very well constructed team including their bench rotation. Would be a very interesting 7 game series.

I think DEN matches up agains LAC pretty well with Braun/PWat on Harden and AG on Khawi. The key this year compared to last is that everyone in rotation is healthy and they are not run down like they were start of last years playoffs. Jokic is much better and he was playing the first 10min of the first Q last year before subbed out vut this year he's been in for the full 12mins. Short rest and he's back in in the second Q and will finish the half. That double OT MIN game he played the whole second half and both OTs and didn't look tired. He'll be unstoppable if Zu sits or gets into foul trouble.

[Wolfgang630]

I definitely don’t want to hear the clippers are under dogs. They’re the favorite to win this matchup by ESPN personnel

[cupcakesnake]

fwiw, the last time Kawhi and AG matched up in the playoffs (2019 first round), Kawhi averaged 27.8 ppg on 67.9% TS, USG of 31.9%. Only one bad scoring game out of five in that series. That was after averaging 18 ppg on 51.6% TS over 3 games against AG and the Magic (really good defensive team all around) in the 2018-19 regular season.

It's been 6 years, and so much has changed since then (including AG improving on the Nuggets, he is way better now), but if Kawhi truly is turning back the clock to 2019, I can't see AG doing much more than slowing him down slightly.

Worth pointing out that Denver AG is a LOT bigger/stronger than Orlando AG. In 2019, Gordon was a 23-year-old auditioning to become a star wing ball handler and weighing rougly 220lbs. He was their leading scorer in those playoffs. In 2025, he's a full time power forward and small ball center who has bulked up considerably.

Healthy Kawhi is super human and I've rarely seen anyone guard him well, so I'm not saying Gordon is going to lock him down. I just want to point out that it's two very different versions of AG.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Series has shifted from Denver -144 to Clippers -118 in the last 24 hours in Vegas.

[JM00n69]

fwiw, the last time Kawhi and AG matched up in the playoffs (2019 first round), Kawhi averaged 27.8 ppg on 67.9% TS, USG of 31.9%. Only one bad scoring game out of five in that series. That was after averaging 18 ppg on 51.6% TS over 3 games against AG and the Magic (really good defensive team all around) in the 2018-19 regular season.

It's been 6 years, and so much has changed since then (including AG improving on the Nuggets, he is way better now), but if Kawhi truly is turning back the clock to 2019, I can't see AG doing much more than slowing him down slightly.

Worth pointing out that Denver AG is a LOT bigger/stronger than Orlando AG. In 2019, Gordon was a 23-year-old auditioning to become a star wing ball handler and weighing rougly 220lbs. He was their leading scorer in those playoffs. In 2025, he's a full time power forward and small ball center who has bulked up considerably.

Healthy Kawhi is super human and I've rarely seen anyone guard him well, so I'm not saying Gordon is going to lock him down. I just want to point out that it's two very different versions of AG.

AG will do a decent job guarding Kawhi I'm sure, enough to hopefully limit his scoring and tire him out a bit.

I can guarantee on offense DEN will be spamming that rapid AG low post iso they abused MIA with in G1. If Clips start Harden/Dunn/Powell/Kahwi/Zu that will be a problem for them. MPJ/Braun on opposite sides to catch or drive and Jok/Murray outside so you can't double off anyone. Zu will have to play a lot of minutes this series but he's been more than great doing that this season. If the Clips move the ball and hit their threes DEN will stuggle as that's thier main weakness. If DEN gets to run it's game over though. Ultimately I think the edge goes to DEN because LAC don't have another proper big to play with Zu at the four or cover his minutes.

[JM00n69]

Nurkic in Portland and Ayton in Phoenix were once "Jokic specialists", but when they met in the playoffs, it was a different story.

Yeah, but both low key suck
Zubac isn't a Jokic stopper or a Jokic specialist by any means...he's simply become an elite (top 5) Center and is very productive and highly impactful player. This production and impact can balance out and negate some of Jokic immense impact, paving the way for Kawhi, Harden and co, to outproduce and outplay all the non Jokic Nuggets, by more than how much Jokic can outplay Zu.



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Well.. I mean all of this data says otherwise. The 10 post ups TOTAL over 3 games when he averages 11.5 per game for example makes it clear that he’s completely changing how he plays vs the Clips. Where they got burned this year is no Kawhi in games and when Jokic is outside the paint they have given up the 3s.

If they emphasize heavily rotations defensively from 3 and not daring a very capable Jokic on wide open 3s they can cause him serious issues.

I do agree with the last part of the post though that it’s more about how much the team can outplay Jokic alone. I don’t believe Jokic will be stopped or anything but I do think he’s gonna be held below his averages. Something like 25 ppg on much lower shooting percentages is possible.

Zu is in the best shape of his career. Clips are peaking on both ends. If they just rotate well to 3 and not leave guys open in the corner (or in Jokic’s case top of the key open bailout 3’s), Clippers win in maybe 5-6.

Zu is and has been for a few years one of the best centers to slow Jokic one v one. And you're right Jok does change his game against him. It's been a lot more high post/outside catches and he'll be looking for shooters/cutters more. Zu is strong enough to keep Jokic from getting deep post position off ball and he contests him very well down low. Plus he's strong enough and knows where to be to box him out so will negate a lot of the easy second tip ins Jok get. And Zu will tire him out on the other end by trying to get his own low post catches and offensive rebounds.

[madmaxmedia]

fwiw, the last time Kawhi and AG matched up in the playoffs (2019 first round), Kawhi averaged 27.8 ppg on 67.9% TS, USG of 31.9%. Only one bad scoring game out of five in that series. That was after averaging 18 ppg on 51.6% TS over 3 games against AG and the Magic (really good defensive team all around) in the 2018-19 regular season.

It's been 6 years, and so much has changed since then (including AG improving on the Nuggets, he is way better now), but if Kawhi truly is turning back the clock to 2019, I can't see AG doing much more than slowing him down slightly.

I guess the advantage of being hurt so much is that 2025 Kawhi is relatively low mileage, car has been stored in a temperature-controlled garage most of its life.

[madmaxmedia]

Yeah, but both low key suck
Zubac isn't a Jokic stopper or a Jokic specialist by any means...he's simply become an elite (top 5) Center and is very productive and highly impactful player. This production and impact can balance out and negate some of Jokic immense impact, paving the way for Kawhi, Harden and co, to outproduce and outplay all the non Jokic Nuggets, by more than how much Jokic can outplay Zu.



Sent from my SM-A055F using RealGM mobile app

Well.. I mean all of this data says otherwise. The 10 post ups TOTAL over 3 games when he averages 11.5 per game for example makes it clear that he’s completely changing how he plays vs the Clips. Where they got burned this year is no Kawhi in games and when Jokic is outside the paint they have given up the 3s.

If they emphasize heavily rotations defensively from 3 and not daring a very capable Jokic on wide open 3s they can cause him serious issues.

I do agree with the last part of the post though that it’s more about how much the team can outplay Jokic alone. I don’t believe Jokic will be stopped or anything but I do think he’s gonna be held below his averages. Something like 25 ppg on much lower shooting percentages is possible.

Zu is in the best shape of his career. Clips are peaking on both ends. If they just rotate well to 3 and not leave guys open in the corner (or in Jokic’s case top of the key open bailout 3’s), Clippers win in maybe 5-6.

Zu is and has been for a few years one of the best centers to slow Jokic one v one. And you're right Jok does change his game against him. It's been a lot more high post/outside catches and he'll be looking for shooters/cutters more. Zu is strong enough to keep Jokic from getting deep post position off ball and he contests him very well down low. Plus he's strong enough and knows where to be to box him out so will negate a lot of the easy second tip ins Jok get. And Zu will tire him out on the other end by trying to get his own low post catches and offensive rebounds.

100%. It's not about Zu negating Jokic, it's about Zu having the size and skills at the center position to actually make Joker sweat a bit for his production.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

After listening to many series previews for this matchup, I would be surprised if the Nuggets can even score a point against the Clippers. Hopefully they can at least bring the ball across half court. But if the experts are correct even that may be too much to ask.

[ejftw]

Series has shifted from Denver -144 to Clippers -118 in the last 24 hours in Vegas.

Everything keeps pointing to people thinking Clips are favorites, nice to see Vegas is now hedging.

[OkcSinceSGA]

After listening to many series previews for this matchup, I would be surprised if the Nuggets can even score a point against the Clippers. Hopefully they can at least bring the ball across half court. But if the experts are correct even that may be too much to ask.

I know this is hyperbole but I mean it’s the #2 defense vs what #17? Do you not expect the defensive gap to come up? Just like all the talk about best player in the series is around Jokic.

[JM00n69]

After listening to many series previews for this matchup, I would be surprised if the Nuggets can even score a point against the Clippers. Hopefully they can at least bring the ball across half court. But if the experts are correct even that may be too much to ask.

I know this is hyperbole but I mean it’s the #2 defense vs what #17? Do you not expect the defensive gap to come up? Just like all the talk about best player in the series is around Jokic.

Nr two against the league is obv great but playoffs are about matchups. Clips will have a difficult time guarding inside against DEN just like MIA did in the finals. DEN can just spam the Jok/Murray outside game with MPJ/Braun opposite side speading the floor and looking to shoot or cut and that gives AG 1v1 down low, where I don't see who on LAC has the size or strenght to stop him. Bring the double and Jokic will find the correct play. MPJ/Braun both just under 40% this year and Jok/AG/Murray all over 40%.