dhsilv2 wrote:DimesandKnicks wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:
All this data mining but you can't take 5 minutes to try and show the impact of it all...
I truly am baffled with your inability to reconcile the impact of all the above on your own. If you have some arbitrary formula that you personally assign value you to, you’re more than welcome to take five minutes of your own time either share it or calibrate it on your own.
But I can say that the Nuggets had the 6th worst defense in the playoffs
dhsilv2 wrote:I've already gone through this process and you refuse to good faith engage.
Friend, this is your directive:
dhsilv2 wrote:If a team runs 15 of those plays a game. What's the difference in Jokic and an average defensive big man in terms of expected outcome? Once you do that, can we further add his low foul rates? And the added turnovers?
I have absoltuely no idea how to calibrate this. So if it only takes you five minutes to do so, do so. Instead of accusing someone who said they weren't interested re-litigating this issue with you again, then proceeded to do so and spend time mining through data of arguing in bad faith.
Further, you seem to put way to much value in catch-all metrics. Basketball isn't a math problem, especially on the defensive end, this isnt baseball. I
I don't know what adding his low foul rates and the added turnovers means against me taking out a calculator for five minutes...
Are we then going to add the context that one, these are playoff stats where he did not have low fould rates, he was 15th in fouls and two added turnovers where? He avereagd two steals a game. Are we going to add the context of how many points he gave up from attempting steals? How many failed attempts at kick balls (of which he had none in the playoffs according to the data) led to him being in poor position to defender another PNR?
dhsilv2 wrote:We have a 10 year sample of Jokic...we know he's a plus impact defender.
No - we don't. We have an advanced metric made by Jeremias Engelmann and according to that metric Jokic is a plus defender. According to Engelmann, his metric overrates Jokic:
Defensively… (laughs) I admit he may be a bit overrated. But the Nuggets defended better when he was on the floor—even though still rather poorly. He is at least a solid rebounder and gets a lot of steals. RPM (which adds box score stats like steals and such to RAPM) tends to favor big men defensively.
dhsilv2 wrote:I've posted film analysis on his defense. I've posted our best data possible in RAPM. I've even tried to explain shot accuracy differentials and what they do. Jokic is an average to plus defender.
The best possible data according to whom? Who is saying that DRAPM is the best way to statistically evaluate a players defense? Or are you just making your own personal declaration? People who actually working in for the NBA aren't raising DRAPM as a holy grail. They build their own proprietary models using: TRACKING DATA-I.e the data I gave you.
And I've posted tracking data that shows that Jokic is one of the worst at defending one of-if not the most-spammed action in the NBA. Is among the worst at defending the rim. Gets scored on the second most and is in position to defend a score second most while only opting to actually contest that scorers advances a third of the time. You think your catch all metric has more value in evaluating a player defensively than all the tracking data we have? Do you think NBA coaches are looking at DRAPM or RPM and saying damn Jokic is high so we're going to avoid him or Jokic gets cooked on pick and rolls and defending the basket so...in terms of taking advantage of a teams weaknesses...we choose him. I don't think you develop a defensive scheme to attack a good defender. I don't think coaches put more weight in Jokic's rebounding or 13 RS kick balls than they do him contesting a third of shots giving up 70 percent at the rim or being in the lower percentile of pick and roll defenders and I think the latter clearly makes him a negative defensively that teams take advantage of and the Nuggets have to scheme for to protect his weaknesses.
I've also posted film analysis of how Mike Malone's defensive scheme protects Jokic's weakness. FYI Engelmann also created an advanced metric to evaluate coaches and it ranked Malone as the 26 greatest defensive coach of all time. So maybe the drop from 8-15ish for Denvers team defense to 22 has more to do with scheme than personell.
Meanwhile you're bringing in being 6th in playoff defense for the team? Well yes, he has teammates like Jamal Murray (a poor defender) and Michael Porter Jr (an absolutely terrible defender) on his team. Or Westbrook another very poor defender.
He's playing with notable and well proven poor to just bad defenders. Of course their playoff defense has issues. But you're like the guy blaming firefighters because they always show up where there's a fire.
He's one of them. The numbers bare it out, and its why NBA teams keep taking advantage of him
