NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread)

[Archx]

I've literally said repeatedly in this conversation that I think Luka's scoring resilience in the playoffs has the potential to allow him to become the most effective playoff performer in the league even if he can never show great 82-game impact, and that if this occurs the regular season +/- will simply be an interesting quirk that tells us something about the nature of RS vs PS in the NBA, and not anything that will meaningfully knock his legacy. So, I literally wouldn't necessarily need to reconsider anything.

I think the reason why his playoff On/Off compared to regular season are so different is because Mavs have had insane injury problems over the past few years and their roster almost never looks complete. In playoffs it changes a bit because best players mostly play together more often. He's had +32 On/Off vs LAC in that 7 game series and they still lost. This season, before new year Luka was sitting at -3.4 On/Off, only 3 games later he was at +3.3. Literally 2 games ago he was at +0.2 now he's at +2.3.

These up and downs are related to their lineup combinations and Mavs fans know this. There has been a discussion on their reddit site and they were posting some incredible stats Luka was producing, including playing defense AND points created or scored for the team. If the team was healthy and Mavs actually had a coach who would know how to tie all the dots together, this team could have been much more dangerous. They were 9-3 at the start of the season and Luka had close to +10 On/Off then injuries started, starting players missing games and everything went downhill, including their overall record.

+/- stats never show individual impact because you have guys like Exum who were sitting at +14 On/Off for entire year when he was healthy and i would never say he's the guy you build your team around. Luka has always been at least top 3 or 5 in other advance metrics in the NBA, only On/Off has been an outlier. His raw stats and like i said, other impact metrics are really good.

Right now i think Mavs have a similar issue again. They are simply a walking hospital team. Half of the main guys are again questionable for upcoming Bucks game.

More sophisticated stuff like RAPM also shows Luka with mediocre impact though

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=923517192

Dwight Powell in top35, what is this a joke? Sure doesn't look anything remotely sophisticated when you see what players are in the top40.

[LordCovington33]

Shouldn’t Embiid be removed as an option or are we waiting for it to be official?

[LordCovington33]

I have changed from vote from Embiid to Jokic. He’s been stunning in the last few weeks.

[bstein14]

You can no longer bet on Embiid for MVP. Jokic and SGA are surprisingly close at the top as heavy favorites and then you have a bit of a gap before Giannis.

[Bob8]

I think the reason why his playoff On/Off compared to regular season are so different is because Mavs have had insane injury problems over the past few years and their roster almost never looks complete. In playoffs it changes a bit because best players mostly play together more often. He's had +32 On/Off vs LAC in that 7 game series and they still lost. This season, before new year Luka was sitting at -3.4 On/Off, only 3 games later he was at +3.3. Literally 2 games ago he was at +0.2 now he's at +2.3.

These up and downs are related to their lineup combinations and Mavs fans know this. There has been a discussion on their reddit site and they were posting some incredible stats Luka was producing, including playing defense AND points created or scored for the team. If the team was healthy and Mavs actually had a coach who would know how to tie all the dots together, this team could have been much more dangerous. They were 9-3 at the start of the season and Luka had close to +10 On/Off then injuries started, starting players missing games and everything went downhill, including their overall record.

+/- stats never show individual impact because you have guys like Exum who were sitting at +14 On/Off for entire year when he was healthy and i would never say he's the guy you build your team around. Luka has always been at least top 3 or 5 in other advance metrics in the NBA, only On/Off has been an outlier. His raw stats and like i said, other impact metrics are really good.

Right now i think Mavs have a similar issue again. They are simply a walking hospital team. Half of the main guys are again questionable for upcoming Bucks game.

More sophisticated stuff like RAPM also shows Luka with mediocre impact though

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=923517192

Dwight Powell in top35, what is this a joke? Sure doesn't look anything remotely sophisticated when you see what players are in the top40.

Dwight Powell has superstar +/- in last 2 years, go figure.

[LordCovington33]

You can no longer bet on Embiid for MVP. Jokic and SGA are surprisingly close at the top as heavy favorites and then you have a bit of a gap before Giannis.

SGA has the narrative of beating Jokic 3-1in their matchups for the regular season, as well as having the top seed. But Jokic’s stats are so outrageously good.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

You can no longer bet on Embiid for MVP. Jokic and SGA are surprisingly close at the top as heavy favorites and then you have a bit of a gap before Giannis.

SGA has the narrative of beating Jokic 3-1in their matchups for the regular season, as well as having the top seed. But Jokic’s stats are so outrageously good.

Technically 2-1 right? Since Jokic missed one of the games. Either way I think Jokic, SGA, or Giannis would all be good choices for MVP right now.

[GeorgeSears]

What has surprised me the most this season is how consistently great Shai has been. I didn't think a guard would be capable of breaking up the Jokic-Embiid-Giannis MVP hegemony, but he's been the closest. He's very much in the top 3.

[LordCovington33]

What has surprised me the most this season is how consistently great Shai has been. I didn't think a guard would be capable of breaking up the Jokic-Embiid-Giannis MVP hegemony, but he's been the closest. He's very much in the top 3.

I watched him play in Manila - one of the matches being against Slovenia. He looked so silky smooth. Very special.

[AleksandarN]

You can no longer bet on Embiid for MVP. Jokic and SGA are surprisingly close at the top as heavy favorites and then you have a bit of a gap before Giannis.

SGA has the narrative of beating Jokic 3-1in their matchups for the regular season, as well as having the top seed. But Jokic’s stats are so outrageously good.

Only 2 - 1 since Jokic ducked last game

[Mamba Mentality]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=20[/x]

Best team in the West. How can you not give him the MVP?

[bisme37]

It's almost time to re-do this thread and I'm kinda flummoxed as to who should be in the new poll.

Last time people were mad Haliburton wasn't in there, but now he is and he hasn't gotten a single vote. I think Kawhi and Edwards should be there (Clips and Wolves should have a representative imo), but they aren't really getting votes either. (And I'm wondering if the Wolves player should be Ant or maybe change it to KAT or Rudy.)

Meanwhile I'd like to move a new player or two into the next poll (Brunson, KD or Booker, Sabonis, etc?) but then I have to remove other players and don't really know who they are.

I'm kinda thinking out loud here but... any thoughts? I probably won't make the new thread today but I'l check back and see if anyone has good ideas. Poll can only have 10 options and one of them is "other."

Edit: as mentioned below, Embiid is close to being ineligible for MVP and should probably come out of the poll.

[The Explorer]

It's almost time to re-do this thread and I'm kinda flummoxed as to who should be in the new poll.

Last time people were mad Haliburton wasn't in there, but now he is and he hasn't gotten a single vote. I think Kawhi and Edwards should be there (Clips and Wolves should have a representative imo), but they aren't really getting votes either. (And I'm wondering if the Wolves player should be Ant or maybe change it to KAT or Rudy.)

Meanwhile I'd like to move a new player or two into the next poll (Brunson, KD or Booker, Sabonis, etc?) but then I have to remove other players and don't really know who they are.

I'm kinda thinking out loud here but... any thoughts? I probably won't make the new thread today but I'l check back and see if anyone has good ideas. Poll can only have 10 options and one of them is "other."

I think the clear move is remove Embiid, add Brunson.

[bisme37]

It's almost time to re-do this thread and I'm kinda flummoxed as to who should be in the new poll.

Last time people were mad Haliburton wasn't in there, but now he is and he hasn't gotten a single vote. I think Kawhi and Edwards should be there (Clips and Wolves should have a representative imo), but they aren't really getting votes either. (And I'm wondering if the Wolves player should be Ant or maybe change it to KAT or Rudy.)

Meanwhile I'd like to move a new player or two into the next poll (Brunson, KD or Booker, Sabonis, etc?) but then I have to remove other players and don't really know who they are.

I'm kinda thinking out loud here but... any thoughts? I probably won't make the new thread today but I'l check back and see if anyone has good ideas. Poll can only have 10 options and one of them is "other."

I think the clear move is remove Embiid, add Brunson.

Hey yeah, that skipped my mind. Embiid is still eligible right now but it seems like he won't be in a week or so. Hopefully no one riots on me but removing him is probably a reasonable way to go.

[BigGargamel]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=20[/x]

Best team in the West. How can you not give him the MVP?

You can do the same with Jokic.

Jokic filtered by totals.

Points: 5
Rebounds: 3
Assists: 3
Steals: T-18
Plus/Minus: 3
Double Doubles: 2
Triple Doubles: 1
Defensive Rebounds: 2

Jokic should win MVP again, but SGA is the new guy and the Thunder are the new hot team so he gets the narrative. Jokic is still the best out there though.

[Jaqua92]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=20[/x]

Best team in the West. How can you not give him the MVP?

Because they're not the best team in the west.

They've been in a general tie for a bit, they've been coming back down to earth this month.

[dygaction]

More sophisticated stuff like RAPM also shows Luka with mediocre impact though

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=923517192

Dwight Powell in top35, what is this a joke? Sure doesn't look anything remotely sophisticated when you see what players are in the top40.

Dwight Powell has superstar +/- in last 2 years, go figure.

Not just superstar by historical. He is the ONLY player to appear twice in all-time offensive rating top 10 leaders by season, NBA/ABA combined.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/off_rtg_season.html

[mediocrityrules]

Sounds like Dwight Powell needs to be in the poll

[Exp0sed]

You can no longer bet on Embiid for MVP. Jokic and SGA are surprisingly close at the top as heavy favorites and then you have a bit of a gap before Giannis.

SGA has the narrative of beating Jokic 3-1in their matchups for the regular season, as well as having the top seed. But Jokic’s stats are so outrageously good.

Jokic didn't play in the last one tho..

[Hobo4President]

Yeh Shai has been great, I'd probably lean him at this point as my pick but Jokic, Giannis and Luka have all been phenomenal recently and Shai has been slightly worse than he was a bit earlier so it's a very close race at the moment. In regards to who's likely to win it I think Luka is going to be penalised for the Mavs record, Giannis will be penalised by playing with Lillard, and the first seed out west is very tight at the moment so could be huge for either SGA or Jokic's case. If I had to call it I'd think it's one of SGA or Jokic that end up winning now.