2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 LA Lakers vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN leads 3-1)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Get this bum Austin Reaves off my team. Flashbacks of Steve Blake bricking a wide open 3 from the same corner in the playoffs

Say you're a casual fan who stereotypes white ballers without saying it.

Bum? Austin Reaves??

What are you rambling about? He has played like an absolute bum this series, there is no arguing that. Cost the Lakers the series tonight with a horrible foul and multiple wide open bricks late in the game.

Firstly, I'm not all up in my feelings. You're projecting when you say ranting.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/reaveau01.html

One bad playoff series doesn't nullify a career year. He's played well in past series.

Reaves? Bum?? Is my way of being flabbergasted at what I read. AR is not the problem.

[durden_tyler]

All the flowers for Ant but let’s not forget about Randle and McDaniels, who are not only contributing consistently but doing it efficiently.

Randle had 25 and McDaniels had 16 including a clutch 3 pt play with 40 seconds to go that gave the Wolves the 114-113 lead. And oh, he also had that steal off LeBron the play after this.


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[cgf]

Question as I unfortunately missed most of this game: LeBron had 18 free throws but only 9fgas. What was the context of this discrepancy? Did it feel deserved or gifted?

As a knicks fan rooting for Randle & DiVIncenzo new team, I don't remember any calls that felt eggregious. The discrepancy is wild, but I'd say mostly earned.

[Handlez]

ESPN propaganda machine is dying inside.

They really had people hyped for this bad Laker team lol.

Maybe their end game was hyping them so they can turn ANT into MJ.

[TorontoBarneys]

No amount of league shenanigans can force a super team to happen. The best teams are always the best built teams.

[Raonak]

Lakers (eliminated) in 5. Lakers empited their gas tank and still came up short.

Yes watching MJ take down a 73 win team from down 3-1 was pretty amazing adversity to watch him overcome.

Thing is, MJ don’t need to take down a 73 win team because he is the 70+ win team. And MJ won’t go down 1-3 in the Finals in the first place.

Checkmate.

Not to mention that 73 win team... was NOT the 73 win team. Steph was a shell of himself and his amazing season was the main reason they got 73. Kyrie even outscored him in the finals, so get out of here with that "beat a 73 win team" over sensationalizing act. They looked VERY beatable.

Yep, curry spraining his knee in the playoffs has a huge blow. In addition to that, their center gets injured, their best defender being suspiciously suspended for the most important game of the series, and it still went to 7, requiring a miracle 3 by kyrie to win.

They beat an injured version of the 2016 warriors, cosmic karma for the 2015 injured cavs I suppose.

[infinite11285]

Cope hard today my boy, i aint even much of a Mavs fan. Nice try though. Your GOAT gonna need 7 games in the 1st round haha. He aint used to this. Welcome to the Westside. This aint no cakewalk East. No 1st round sweep and gimmes.

On that note, should we now review and asterisk all of Lebron’s titles in the East? If he played in the West as we see in his past 5 years, it would have taken more out of him leaving him with less energy for later rounds/Finals, if he would have even gotten there.

So we might now know the secret to Lebron’s great performances in the Finals before. It’s because he could coast in the East playoffs. That’s why he was always so fresh come Finals time.

I thought before it was PED’s. But I think it was the easy competition. He couldn’t do much out West and looks so tired out there.

LeBron's record against the West while playing in the East: 143-72 (.665%)
LeBron's record against the West while playing in the West: 158-101 (.610%)

In other words, he’d been beating Western teams at a top-seed clip long before he ever joined the Lakers, and he even won a title out West in 2020. Expecting him to replicate prime dominance two decades and 59,000+ minutes into his career misunderstands both aging and the record he already built against each conference.

ok now do his record against West playoff teams. then calculate his chances of making even two consecutive finals at those odds.

It’s a tricky stat to pin down, but based on the numbers, LeBron won about 58% of his games against Western Conference playoff teams during his prime. If we treat his prime record versus the West (143-72, a .665 win rate) as his per-game probability in the playoffs, a quick back-of-the-envelope model gives him roughly a one-in-three chance (≈ 31 %) of reaching the Finals in consecutive seasons out West.

With all that baked in, “about one chance in three” is a reasonable, transparent estimate—and it climbs toward 45% if you believe a prime LeBron roster (in the West) would post closer to a .70 game-win probability against the West once the playoffs arrive.

[___Rand___]

Lebron tonight:

0 points in the 4th quarter

0-3 in the clutch

2 turnovers in the last 3 minutes of the game.

JJ was incompetent for making his guys play the whole second half knowing they have conditioning issues. I understand it's a do or die game but that's what you have staggered rotations for.

There's correlation between the two. JJ gambled and lost. It was late 4th when Lakers were tired that TWolves closed the gap and won. Rookie mistake. His manage of end game in game 3 also cost Lakers a winnable game though there Luka had a big share of the loss.

[ball_takes23]

LeBron's record against the West while playing in the East: 143-72 (.665%)
LeBron's record against the West while playing in the West: 158-101 (.610%)

In other words, he’d been beating Western teams at a top-seed clip long before he ever joined the Lakers, and he even won a title out West in 2020. Expecting him to replicate prime dominance two decades and 59,000+ minutes into his career misunderstands both aging and the record he already built against each conference.

ok now do his record against West playoff teams. then calculate his chances of making even two consecutive finals at those odds.

It’s a tricky stat to pin down, but based on the numbers, LeBron won about 58% of his games against Western Conference playoff teams during his prime. If we treat his prime record versus the West (143-72, a .665 win rate) as his per-game probability in the playoffs, a quick back-of-the-envelope model gives him roughly a one-in-three chance (≈ 31 %) of reaching the Finals in consecutive seasons out West.

With all that baked in, “about one chance in three” is a reasonable, transparent estimate—and it climbs toward 45% if you believe a prime LeBron roster (in the West) would post closer to a .70 game-win probability against the West once the playoffs arrive.

why are you using 66% instead of 58%? his record against non-playoff teams is irrelevant when discussing his odds of making the finals.

[dWadeOwnzYou]

Lebron tonight:

0 points in the 4th quarter

0-3 in the clutch

2 turnovers in the last 3 minutes of the game.

But...since he's 40 yrs old, he's excused and should be GOATED because of that late clutched blocks.

[Roger Murdock]

Lakers (eliminated) in 5. Lakers empited their gas tank and still came up short.

Thing is, MJ don’t need to take down a 73 win team because he is the 70+ win team. And MJ won’t go down 1-3 in the Finals in the first place.

Checkmate.

Not to mention that 73 win team... was NOT the 73 win team. Steph was a shell of himself and his amazing season was the main reason they got 73. Kyrie even outscored him in the finals, so get out of here with that "beat a 73 win team" over sensationalizing act. They looked VERY beatable.

Yep, curry spraining his knee in the playoffs has a huge blow. In addition to that, their center gets injured, their best defender being suspiciously suspended for the most important game of the series, and it still went to 7, requiring a miracle 3 by kyrie to win.

They beat an injured version of the 2016 warriors, cosmic karma for the 2015 injured cavs I suppose.

"suspiciously suspended"

The dude got 7 technical fouls thru the playoffs. Thats almost impossible to do. His feet were magnetically attracted to testicles all playoffs long. If he was less ball hungry maybe he doesn't get suspended, but he was going after nuts like a squirrel prepping for winter.

[NyKnicks1714]

I still don't get why JJ did what he did. It feels like common sense to spell Luka and LeBron for 5-6 minutes each a half.They're still learning each other and aren't yet complimenting each other that great in half court sets, so I don't think you lose that much having one on the floor vs. both during short stretches. LeBron has been great this season in games without Luka or AD, and you know Luka is going to be great too with 4 shooters around him (or 3 plus Hayes's lob threat). Neither of them had anything left at the end of the game.

Like you can't play your 40-year-old 46 minutes and every last second of the second half. At the end of the third I truly thought the game was a tossup with Minnesota down 10.

[KyRo23]

Lebron tonight:

0 points in the 4th quarter

0-3 in the clutch

2 turnovers in the last 3 minutes of the game.

JJ was incompetent for making his guys play the whole second half knowing they have conditioning issues. I understand it's a do or die game but that's what you have staggered rotations for.

There's correlation between the two. JJ gambled and lost. It was late 4th when Lakers were tired that TWolves closed the gap and won. Rookie mistake. His manage of end game in game 3 also cost Lakers a winnable game though there Luka had a big share of the loss.

I respect your attempt at analysis, but you are talking to what can only be compared to a brick wall with a learning disability

The Lakers were cooked late. I want to blame JJ, but in the moment, it seemed like the best option as the bench has been unbearable. It's a tough choice in a must win game. It could have went either way. It's a bit of hindsight since they lost, but it was a couple of inches to being the other way

[The Warrior]

Dumb call tbh. Yes it’s technically correct however it’s never called real time. Just stupid use of this

So because it's hard to call in real time, yet it's completely evidently a foul here, it's a dumb call. Sounds like a pretty dumb statement honestly.

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[Myth]

The context is you should actually watch the games and don’t rely on the dumb # of free throws takes.


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Family obligations. And I’m not relying on the # to make conclusions, I made an observation of the numbers and asked a question.

Apologies for lumping you with those kind of guys, i assumed too hastily that your post was another one or those FT discrepancies takes.


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Discrepancies sometimes are a sign of lopsided calls, and sometimes simply aggression leading to more situations where fouls may occur. Knowing it is LeBron, both seemed reasonably plausible, and the consensus does seem to be they were legit. Even a rant from somebody saying they were bogus would lead me to try to find some examples to see for myself.

[KGDirkTD_Fan]

I still don't get why JJ did what he did. It feels like common sense to spell Luka and LeBron for 5-6 minutes each a half.They're still learning each other and aren't yet complimenting each other that great in half court sets, so I don't think you lose that much having one on the floor vs. both during short stretches. LeBron has been great this season in games without Luka or AD, and you know Luka is going to be great too with 4 shooters around him (or 3 plus Hayes's lob threat). Neither of them had anything left at the end of the game.

Like you can't play your 40-year-old 46 minutes and every last second of the second half. At the end of the third I truly thought the game was a tossup with Minnesota down 10.

They just needed the survive with one of them on the bench for a few minutes. I don't think this is something you need to learn as a rookie head coach, it seemed obvious to me. It's beyond dumb the gamble he took there.

[SweetTouch]

Sucks but when you have old players injuries are gonna happen

Already heard from sources LBJ is injured and forcing JJ to play him

JJ is asking LBJ to sit down but LBJ refuses to listen to him

JJ is pissed because LBJ is tryna play through the injuries by just resting on plays

And JJ thinks he has to trust his teammates more

Oh well LBJ was bound to be injured old man bones

Curious as to if JJ finally decides to force it

[infinite11285]

ok now do his record against West playoff teams. then calculate his chances of making even two consecutive finals at those odds.

It’s a tricky stat to pin down, but based on the numbers, LeBron won about 58% of his games against Western Conference playoff teams during his prime. If we treat his prime record versus the West (143-72, a .665 win rate) as his per-game probability in the playoffs, a quick back-of-the-envelope model gives him roughly a one-in-three chance (≈ 31 %) of reaching the Finals in consecutive seasons out West.

With all that baked in, “about one chance in three” is a reasonable, transparent estimate—and it climbs toward 45% if you believe a prime LeBron roster (in the West) would post closer to a .70 game-win probability against the West once the playoffs arrive.

why are you using 66% instead of 58%? his record against non-playoff teams is irrelevant when discussing his odds of making the finals.

Because during the regular season in this hypothetical, he plays every Western opponent—not just the ones that end up in the playoffs. And once you also factor in the Eastern teams he inevitably faces, his odds of reaching consecutive Finals while in his prime out West rise even further.

[Himothy Duncan]

LeBron standing on the side with Luka dribbling and doing whatever he wants play after play is nonsense. They should go back and forth initiating the offense, more sharing. This team is better with LeBron running the show if you ask me.

[Revived]

Luka’s assist numbers haven’t been up to what he usually does and Wolves defense definitely deserves credit for that.