2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West Semifinals: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Denver Nuggets (DEN leads 1-0)

[Dadouv47]

They aren't going to lose.

don't know how you are still so much confident (Vegas still is too so you are on the majority). Hope you end up being right of course

The fact that the line (-11.5) hasn't moved means despite all the fraud and choking talk means people still aren't really buying the Nuggets over OKC yet. Vegas and people with skin in the game still view this as the most lopsided series of the 4. Whether that proves to be fatal, only time will tell.

For reference:
Cleveland is currently at -8.5 against Indiana tonight
Boston' is currently at -10.5 against NYK for game 2

weird to me considering that Cleveland has many injured players.

Boston is WAY better than the Knicks and they have more experience

Denver won the title with that team two years ago, Jokic is still the best player in the world and mostly we saw some very bad signs from some of our players (they look scared as ***). I just hope to be wrong and I still don't buy the "lack of experience" stuff but I just think some of our players aren't buit for it.

[cjx]

There is no dishonor in falling to a battle-tested and inexpugnable champion, Fam

Mile High Might 4Ever!

[Exp0sed]

My hot take here is that Shai actually had a really good game, it just wasn’t up to his standards.

8 assists to one turnover, good defense.

He needs help on offense and the young guns didn’t have it.

I still think OKC wins that without 7, too much went wrong for OKC that won’t continue to imo.

For some reason SGA just didn’t feel as noticeable but he still had a good game. Caruso’s game was much louder.

that's because he did most of his damage in the 1st quarter

[Los_29]

I will say, thought the refs did a good job in letting them play physical. OKC could’ve been called for a lot more but they weren’t. They were very handsy on the perimeter and were fouling a lot in the paint.

[Exp0sed]

don't know how you are still so much confident (Vegas still is too so you are on the majority). Hope you end up being right of course

The fact that the line (-11.5) hasn't moved means despite all the fraud and choking talk means people still aren't really buying the Nuggets over OKC yet. Vegas and people with skin in the game still view this as the most lopsided series of the 4. Whether that proves to be fatal, only time will tell.

For reference:
Cleveland is currently at -8.5 against Indiana tonight
Boston' is currently at -10.5 against NYK for game 2

weird to me considering that Cleveland has many injured players.

Boston is WAY better than the Knicks and they have more experience

Denver won the title with that team two years ago, Jokic is still the best player in the world and mostly we saw some very bad signs from some of our players (they look scared as ***). I just hope to be wrong and I still don't buy the "lack of experience" stuff but I just think some of our players aren't buit for it.

Boston is not "way better" than the Knicks

the Knicks underperformed (to a certain degree) in the RS. they upgraded from Randle to an All-NBA guy in Towns but didn't really win more games in the rs (than the year before, especially if we only examine their record post the OG trade) Brunson is much better in the clutch thn either JB or Tatum, Horford is old and KP is unreliable

JB shot 0-9 from three, i mean bro just go to the basket, take a midrange shot or get physical and get to the cup

Knicks had a killer lineup last season and they upgraded that lineup with Towns. their starting 5 is arguably just as good as Boston's.

[Exp0sed]

I will say, thought the refs did a good job in letting them play physical. OKC could’ve been called for a lot more but they weren’t. They were very handsy on the perimeter and were fouling a lot in the paint.

I actually think the Nuggets got a slight benefit in a few calls but yes, refs are letting them play in general these playoffs

[Los_29]

I will say, thought the refs did a good job in letting them play physical. OKC could’ve been called for a lot more but they weren’t. They were very handsy on the perimeter and were fouling a lot in the paint.

I actually think the Nuggets got a slight benefit in a few calls but yes, refs are letting them play in general these playoffs

I thought they were mugging Murray all game. Also Caruso looked like he took longer than 5 seconds to inbound the ball late in the game.

Nuggets also had some calls too.

This style of play benefits OKC.

[Exp0sed]

Chet, J-Dub can and others (Joe, etc.)can and will play better ofc but Murray and MPJ can also play much better. as good as OKC is in causing turnovers, the Nuggets were extra bad on that front, they could def clean that up some. the Thunder are also great in not turning the ball over and the Nuggets generated very few turnovers and scored most of their points in the halfcourt with only a few points in transition, they will def run more at home

this is going to be a long series, imo. neither team will win it in less than 6.

[Drakeem]

I said this in another thread just now, but we gotta stop using the "young and inexperienced" card for OKC. They had last year to learn from and bolstered their team with iHart and Caruso. Shai is the MVP of the league and he has a solid second option and a variety of players to play off of. Their defense is arguably best in the league as well.

If they lose they should be embarrassed.

there is literally not a single thing that makes losing to the Nuggets embarrassing

OKC has the best defence in the league, the arguably deepest team in the league, the MVP of the league, and they won 68 games which is an INSANE record.

I always thought that Denver had a shot, but given all the things OKC has going for them, they should be rightfully clowned if they lose in the second round. At least the Warriors lost in the finals when they won 73.

[___Rand___]

They aren't going to lose.

I dont think they lose the series either but no one should be confident in their win. This wont be a cake walk. DEN has the best player in the world, much more playoff experience and play quite a bit bigger than OKC.

Its much closer than many think.

I’m not saying it’s not close.

But I have confidence that JDub and Chet will play better on offense, and that OKC won’t make so many uncharacteristic mistakes.

These are the playoffs. These crucibles make men or mince meat of boys. They either grow up show up or become mince meat.

[Exp0sed]

I will say, thought the refs did a good job in letting them play physical. OKC could’ve been called for a lot more but they weren’t. They were very handsy on the perimeter and were fouling a lot in the paint.

I actually think the Nuggets got a slight benefit in a few calls but yes, refs are letting them play in general these playoffs

I thought they were mugging Murray all game. Also Caruso looked like he took longer than 5 seconds to inbound the ball late in the game.

Nuggets also had some calls too.

This style of play benefits OKC.

to be fair, those type of inbound calls seldomly get called, 5 secs, 7 or 8 lol, even in the rs we rarely see it. refs don't want to decide a game like this with a call like that and that's understandable.

yeah, they missed a bunch of calls on Murray (both impeding his movement illegaly without the ball and a few hacks in layup attempts) and alot of hugging on Jokic but they also let the Nuggets get away with ALOT while boxing out and in other spots as well. game was called pretty eventy all in all but I would give a slight edge to the Nuggets favor there, especially with a couple of ticky-tacky fouls they pinned early on Iharte and Chet, which eventually sent them both early to the bench with foul trouble

p.s, the biggest or what should have been the biggest call of the game was the challenged 4th foul on Jokic. I still think the refs got that one clearly wrong and frankly it should have ended the game but for some reason the Thunder didn't just go after Jokic play after play

Jokic ran the break shoulder to shoulder with Chet and was ahead by half a head when Chet clearly extended his arm and held Jokic back (while both are running full speed) - that's a clear cut foul by Chet. now I get the refs missing it and then only seeing the Jokic push-off (the first or the second lol) but once it's challenged and reviewd, it was easy to see that the illegal contact started and was initiated by Chet and that call should have been overturned

[Jta444]

Man watching Jokic lead today commanding his teammates from the bench like a Soviet World War general is inspirational.

I compare this to Lebron who was damn pouting at the bench mad at JR Smith and his coach Tyronn Lue like a damn spoiled kid who didn’t get his lunch money a few years back. I mean the game wasn’t over yet at that time going into overtime yet he was pouting already and already in defeat and pointing fingers rather than being positive.

[Jadoogar]

man that was a crazy strategy at the end. Why did OKC try to foul so quickly in the backcourt? atleast let him dribble into the front court and bleed some more time off the clock.

[lessthanjake]

man that was a crazy strategy at the end. Why did OKC try to foul so quickly in the backcourt? atleast let him dribble into the front court and bleed some more time off the clock.

The problem with waiting to foul is twofold:

First, if you try to foul too late, there’s a really significant chance that you end up actually fouling someone in the act of shooting a three. That is the biggest possible disaster and teams want to avoid that at all costs.

Second, you don’t always have control over when you can foul. If you wait too long to foul, the offensive player can get a head of steam and get some separation from defenders to create an open three—which is what fouling is supposed to try to avoid.

I don’t think the issue here really is not waiting to foul. The bigger issue was deciding to foul in the first place when Jokic was on the bench and not otherwise able to get in. It might generally be preferable to foul when up by three, but I don’t think it’s preferable to do so when the other team’s superstar is not on the court. That significantly reduces the chance that the other team will actually be able to make a three if you don’t foul, which should probably change the calculus regarding whether to foul. I think OKC simply defaulted to their normal approach in this situation, without making an audible based on the context of Jokic not being on the court.

[BlazersBroncos]

Man watching Jokic lead today commanding his teammates from the bench like a Soviet World War general is inspirational.

I compare this to Lebron who was damn pouting at the bench mad at JR Smith and his coach Tyronn Lue like a damn spoiled kid who didn’t get his lunch money a few years back. I mean the game wasn’t over yet at that time going into overtime yet he was pouting already and already in defeat and pointing fingers rather than being positive.

Ya - the quasi coach Joker we have seen lately is why they should retain Adleman - his willingness to at times take a seat and allow Joker to coach has been very beneficial for DEN.

Joker is a freaking savant. There is no other way around it. Probably the biggest savant in NBA history. Like a kid that can play the piano at an orchestra level from a young age just off feel.

Outside some of his foul baiting (And he usually doesnt even get the calls lol) - he is probably the most exciting player in the league to watch.

[Statlanta]

OKC was on cruise control the entire game and didnt see the intensity flip. Denver is a level below outside of Jokic but seem to have a really on the ball HC. I dont think Denver wins another game in the series tbh.

I mentioned this before the playoffs but this is a vulnerability of this OKC team. They're something of a victim of their own success and as a result they've played very few close games this season. Another poster compiled some data and determined they only played 6 close games all season. I'll find the thread if I can.

Cruise control has been their normal and so these close tense games are a bit foreign to them.

The same thing for Curry in the 2016 Warriors season. They played very few close games that it probably affected Curry in the clutch while Kyrie shined at the right moment(also helps that Kyrie had a tie game to respond to versus Curry being down by 3 points and being relied upon)

[Mrakar]

I had to calmly rewatch the game once again before writing anything since last night my heart was pumping too fast.
The hotakes after this game are maybe even worse then before the game. Before the game people were talking about OKC sweeping Nuggets and now the same people are writing that its over for OKC... Both as seen not even close.
I had OKC before the series, and i still have them after this game.
About the game: Nuggets stayed in game long enough to let OKC make young roster mistakes. Thats the conclusion i came up with after rewatching it. Nuggets were fighting really hard, got a lot of possesions back on the offensive glass that they lost in turnover battle. Jokic amazing as always, Gordon and Westbrook good games, Braun great on boards and defense, not so on offense, Murray was solid even he had poor shooting night. Watson was solid even though his +/- is awfull but he was there during 2 OKC runs. MPJ was a disaster tonight, Strawther is unplayable.
On the other side, goode one from SGA, Hartenstein and Dort. Great one from Caruso, but Williams and Chet left a lot to be disired alongside Isiah Joe. I think Wallace and Wiggins were solid in their minutes.
Coaching was solid untill the end. WTF was Adelman thinking by putting Jokic on the bench not having timeouts to put him back in the game and even worse decision by Daigneault to foul and allow Jokic to come back in. Let me be clear i am in favour of fouling, even though it was too early both times, but why the heck would you do it while opposing team has best player in the world on the bench and no timeouts to put him in, especially when you know that they are so dependent on him. I wouldnt give Nuggets more then 20% chance of scoring in last 10 seconds with Jokic sitting while needing a 3 and i would live with them having less then 20% chance to tie the game and in worst case go to OT but probably having couple of seconds for one more try to win it in regulation. Awful last 15 seconds by both coaches. Jokic luckly hold the timeout before those Holmgren FTs and explained to Murray what to do so that they dont let SGA get the ball.

OKCs positive things about future in this series:
- Bad games from Williams(on offense), Holmgren(i dare to say on both sides) and Joe and still had this game untill the end
- Lost rebounding battle by 20 and still had this game untill the end
- Holmgren and Hartenstein lower minutes bcs of foul trouble and still had the game


DNVRs positive things about future in this series:
- 18 turnovers and won the game
- god awful MPJ preformance and won the game(he also sucked against clippers in first game and bounced back in the next 2)
- Caruso hitting 5 3s shouldnt happen anymore in this series no matter how open he is
- 30% from 3 and won the game


I still have OKC winning it, but i lean more in 7 (had them in 6, even contemplated with 5 but cant do that vs Joker).

Btw, just to throw something out there, MVP was -16 in a 3 point loss.

[RRFB]

The question now is how does OKC respond? As great as they are, they just haven’t faced much adversity as a unit and they don’t have a lot of experience in these moments.

Denver on the other hand has seen it all. Their core has been doing this together for so long. There’s no late game situation they haven’t been in before, and there’s nothing OKC can throw at them that they haven’t already seen. Oh, and they’ve got the best player in the world. So many people underestimated their toughness and resilience. I thought that was the most impressive part of their performance last night, especially on such short rest after that game 7.

This should be a great series. I think all outcomes are on the table for game 2.

[Luv those Knicks]

don't know how you are still so much confident (Vegas still is too so you are on the majority). Hope you end up being right of course

The fact that the line (-11.5) hasn't moved means despite all the fraud and choking talk means people still aren't really buying the Nuggets over OKC yet. Vegas and people with skin in the game still view this as the most lopsided series of the 4. Whether that proves to be fatal, only time will tell.

For reference:
Cleveland is currently at -8.5 against Indiana tonight
Boston' is currently at -10.5 against NYK for game 2

weird to me considering that Cleveland has many injured players.

Boston is WAY better than the Knicks and they have more experience

Denver won the title with that team two years ago, Jokic is still the best player in the world and mostly we saw some very bad signs from some of our players (they look scared as ***). I just hope to be wrong and I still don't buy the "lack of experience" stuff but I just think some of our players aren't buit for it.

Vegas doesn't make predictions, they make adjustments. They want to make money no matter which team wins, and half the money being bet on either team is optimal for them. If the point spread doesn't move much, it's because the bets are coming in about 50/50.

[VicG]

The question now is how does OKC respond? As great as they are, they just haven’t faced much adversity as a unit and they don’t have a lot of experience in these moments.

Denver on the other hand has seen it all. Their core has been doing this together for so long. There’s no late game situation they haven’t been in before, and there’s nothing OKC can throw at them that they haven’t already seen. Oh, and they’ve got the best player in the world. So many people underestimated their toughness and resilience. I thought that was the most impressive part of their performance last night, especially on such short rest after that game 7.

This should be a great series. I think all outcomes are on the table for game 2.

I do agree and am rooting for them but just to play devil's advocate, this is the same team that blew a big lead in game 7 at home last year to a relatively inexperienced Wolves group