Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread)

[scrabbarista]

Whoever the Most Valuable Player is, the most valuable player is obviously Nikola Jokic.

[Black star]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

[BigGargamel]

When is the last time we saw two players completely dominate the way they have with SGA and Jokic? It's so fun, because they are two completely different players, but are both having all time runs.

I really hope those two teams meet fully healthy in the WCF.

The Northwest > *

[RB34]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

[Black star]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

You realize you can just look up these numbers before you post right?

Lebron: Shai - 8.82, Jokic - 7.78
EPM: Shai - 11.0, Jokic - 9.5
WS (the only one where the difference is truly decimal place marginal): Shai - 6.6, Jokic - 6.4

I don't disregard anything actually. Well except for BPM which is a demonstrably flawed stat that people blindly use the same way they used to blindly use PER in the 2010s. Jokic has been similarly great offensively this year. My point is that Shai is not just leading because the Thunder have a great record. The Thunder have a great record because his impact in the first 25 games has been best in the world level. Sorry he can't average a 30 point triple double while he's doing that

[Peregrine01]

I think Jokic is the most valuable player and the most impactful player in the league by some margin. But I don’t think he’s gonna win MVP if the Thunder keeps winning like this.

[Cubbies2120]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

You realize you can just look up these numbers before you post right?

Lebron: Shai - 8.82, Jokic - 7.78
EPM: Shai - 11.0, Jokic - 9.5
WS (the only one where the difference is truly decimal place marginal): Shai - 6.6, Jokic - 6.4

I don't disregard anything actually. Well except for BPM which is a demonstrably flawed stat that people blindly use the same way they used to blindly use PER in the 2010s. Jokic has been similarly great offensively this year. My point is that Shai is not just leading because the Thunder have a great record. The Thunder have a great record because his impact in the first 25 games has been best in the world level. Sorry he can't average a 30 point triple double while he's doing that

Jokic leads the league in:

Raw Stats - RPG, APG, 5th in PPG on 73 TS%...

Adv Stats - PER, VORP, ORTG, BPM, OBPM, DBPM

And his usage % is closer to Nickeil Alexander Walker than it is to SGA...

Pretty wild when you consider that last point ^

[ball_takes23]

the one single stat most historically correlated to MVP is WS/48 which Shai has recently passed Jokic in and currently leads by a small margin .40 to .38. This was prior to tonight's game.

[RB34]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

You realize you can just look up these numbers before you post right?

Lebron: Shai - 8.82, Jokic - 7.78
EPM: Shai - 11.0, Jokic - 9.5
WS (the only one where the difference is truly decimal place marginal): Shai - 6.6, Jokic - 6.4

I don't disregard anything actually. Well except for BPM which is a demonstrably flawed stat that people blindly use the same way they used to blindly use PER in the 2010s. Jokic has been similarly great offensively this year. My point is that Shai is not just leading because the Thunder have a great record. The Thunder have a great record because his impact in the first 25 games has been best in the world level. Sorry he can't average a 30 point triple double while he's doing that

Again, I don’t think there is enough in those stats to completely disregard everything Jokic is doing. I could be wrong, but as I understand EPM has always favoured guards and even then we’re not talking an astronomical difference.

Trivialising a 30 point triple double on that kind of efficiency is wild to me. If only he scored those extra 2 points every game.

[lethalizer]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

Last time Jokic won the MVP, he was 0.1 behind SGA in EPM. Last time Jokic had a chasm difference against the other actual candidates, it was in 2022 when he was a full point ahead of the second place, Joel Embiid. He was also ahead by 0.7 when he won his first MVP.

Shai currently has a 1.5 lead over him.

I have no problem voting Jokic as the MVP, but it's good to be consistent and have the actual data when it comes to making these kinda statements.

[Infinite Llamas]

So the question for now is second place.

Jokic has been better than Luka. Bucks just aren’t in it so Giannis isn’t.

1 Jokic
2 SGA
3 Luka

So not much has changed really.

I don't really see how you can put Joker over SGA right now. Thunder are 24-1 with their 2nd option missing 90% of the season so far. 33/5/7 on 69% TS. Unprecedented efficiency from a guard. Absurd numbers in the clutch, no one else is even close. He is making it impossible to vote against.

I just rate Joker higher. But I think it’s a close enough race that I’d be willing to give the award based on how they do in the 4 head to heads and who plays better.

Jokic picking on the Kings and SGA trouncing a Booker-less Suns just doesn’t do much to move the needle either way right now. Both have had easy schedules and some bad injury luck.

[Infinite Llamas]

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

You realize you can just look up these numbers before you post right?

Lebron: Shai - 8.82, Jokic - 7.78
EPM: Shai - 11.0, Jokic - 9.5
WS (the only one where the difference is truly decimal place marginal): Shai - 6.6, Jokic - 6.4

I don't disregard anything actually. Well except for BPM which is a demonstrably flawed stat that people blindly use the same way they used to blindly use PER in the 2010s. Jokic has been similarly great offensively this year. My point is that Shai is not just leading because the Thunder have a great record. The Thunder have a great record because his impact in the first 25 games has been best in the world level. Sorry he can't average a 30 point triple double while he's doing that

Jokic leads the league in:

Raw Stats - RPG, APG, 5th in PPG on 73 TS%...

Adv Stats - PER, VORP, ORTG, BPM, OBPM, DBPM

And his usage % is closer to Nickeil Alexander Walker than it is to SGA...

Pretty wild when you consider that last point ^

Watching Jokic dominate a game with sometimes taking less than 10 shots is a really beautiful thing to watch.

[lethalizer]

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

You realize you can just look up these numbers before you post right?

Lebron: Shai - 8.82, Jokic - 7.78
EPM: Shai - 11.0, Jokic - 9.5
WS (the only one where the difference is truly decimal place marginal): Shai - 6.6, Jokic - 6.4

I don't disregard anything actually. Well except for BPM which is a demonstrably flawed stat that people blindly use the same way they used to blindly use PER in the 2010s. Jokic has been similarly great offensively this year. My point is that Shai is not just leading because the Thunder have a great record. The Thunder have a great record because his impact in the first 25 games has been best in the world level. Sorry he can't average a 30 point triple double while he's doing that

Jokic leads the league in:

Raw Stats - RPG, APG, 5th in PPG on 73 TS%...

Adv Stats - PER, VORP, ORTG, BPM, OBPM, DBPM

And his usage % is closer to Nickeil Alexander Walker than it is to SGA...

Pretty wild when you consider that last point ^

The advanced stats you're providing here aren't really advanced at all anymore. They're purely box score related.

Especially citing DBPM here is absolutely comical, sorry mate. A defensive stat that weighs assists heavily for the Center position shouldn't be taken seriously at all, we know how these formulas work, it's 2025.

ORTG is a very bad stat to use as a single player as well, unless you believe Jordan Walsh is the 4th best offensive player in the NBA and Peyton Watson to be a better offensive player than Nikola Jokic.

PER I won't even argue about anymore, it's been outdated for a good while.

VORP and BPM at least have their uses still, VORP still has its outliers but has fewer than others, and at least the best players tend to be correctly placed at the top from what I know.

I've made the cases for Jokic being the MVP from 2021 on myself a bunch of times using none of the advanced metrics you pointed but other ones like LEBRON and EPM. It's just weird that some of the metrics I used to favor him now have him 2nd but apparently the Jokic crowd who loved those stats now don't like them that much anymore, so the user above is right when it comes to that one.

I don't have a problem with Jokic winning the MVP. The discourse is getting weird these couple of seasons, is what I'm saying.

[RB34]

I find it funny how this thread used to be spammed with all the advanced stats Jokic was leading in to show what an insurmountable case he had. But now that SGA is beating him in them none of those people bring them up anymore. Shai tops him in all the fancy impact related ones like EPM, WS, and Lebron. The only thing Jokic has is the box score stuffing and derivative box score based advanced stats.

But sure keep telling yourself Shai isn't really as valuable and is only leading because of record.

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

Last time Jokic won the MVP, he was 0.1 behind SGA in EPM. Last time Jokic had a chasm difference against the other actual candidates, it was in 2022 when he was a full point ahead of the second place, Joel Embiid. He was also ahead by 0.7 when he won his first MVP.

Shai currently has a 1.5 lead over him.

I have no problem voting Jokic as the MVP, but it's good to be consistent and have the actual data when it comes to making these kinda statements.

The advanced stat data is there I’m sure you’ve had a look at it. If you can’t see the difference between previous candidates and now then I don’t know what to tell you.

[mademan]

Im genuinely getting to the point where I think it's crazy to believe that there's ever been anyone as good as Jokic offensively before.

[lethalizer]

We’re talking decimal point differences. Not chasms like Joker had against previous contenders.

The fact that you’re putting so much weight in those small differences but disregarding the stats Jokic leads in says all there is to say about what kind of faith you’re arguing in.

36/12/8, 87% from the floor in 29 mins. Also, the all important didn’t play the 4th quarter gimmick.

Last time Jokic won the MVP, he was 0.1 behind SGA in EPM. Last time Jokic had a chasm difference against the other actual candidates, it was in 2022 when he was a full point ahead of the second place, Joel Embiid. He was also ahead by 0.7 when he won his first MVP.

Shai currently has a 1.5 lead over him.

I have no problem voting Jokic as the MVP, but it's good to be consistent and have the actual data when it comes to making these kinda statements.

The advanced stat data is there I’m sure you’ve had a look at it. If you can’t see the difference between previous candidates and now then I don’t know what to tell you.

You've been saying "decimal differences in EPM" in a bunch of threads, and I provided the relevant data. It's up to you how to interpret that data.

I had Jokic as the MVP in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 myself, mind you.

[RB34]

Last time Jokic won the MVP, he was 0.1 behind SGA in EPM. Last time Jokic had a chasm difference against the other actual candidates, it was in 2022 when he was a full point ahead of the second place, Joel Embiid. He was also ahead by 0.7 when he won his first MVP.

Shai currently has a 1.5 lead over him.

I have no problem voting Jokic as the MVP, but it's good to be consistent and have the actual data when it comes to making these kinda statements.

The advanced stat data is there I’m sure you’ve had a look at it. If you can’t see the difference between previous candidates and now then I don’t know what to tell you.

You've been saying "decimal differences in EPM" in a bunch of threads, and I provided the relevant data. It's up to you how to interpret that data.

I had Jokic as the MVP in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 myself, mind you.

In a bunch of different threads or just here?

I’ve never relied solely on advanced stats to make an argument for Joker and I never will.

If you want to rely on one specific stat and disregard all the other variables then that’s fine. EPM seems to be the flavour of the month.

[lethalizer]

:wink:

The advanced stat data is there I’m sure you’ve had a look at it. If you can’t see the difference between previous candidates and now then I don’t know what to tell you.

You've been saying "decimal differences in EPM" in a bunch of threads, and I provided the relevant data. It's up to you how to interpret that data.

I had Jokic as the MVP in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 myself, mind you.

In a bunch of different threads or just here?

Yeah only here, though you did make claim multiple times.

My issue here is always the same, the consistency.

I've never been a big "raw data" guy, if I was, I'd probably have gone Luka for 2024 MVP and Embiid for 2023. Both years I had Jokic because of the metrics I chose while trying to watch as many tape I could on those candidates.

Last season I had Jokic all the way until late February or so iirc, that's when I switched to Shai. This season I also had Jokic to start but now leaning to Shai during this past two weeks or so, but my "on personal vote" is still not set in stone, it's subject to change.

As long as people are consistent with what they present as arguments and what they value the most, I have no problem with it. Changing the arguments as the years go on and switching things up? That's when you lose me in these debates.

[Black star]

You realize you can just look up these numbers before you post right?

Lebron: Shai - 8.82, Jokic - 7.78
EPM: Shai - 11.0, Jokic - 9.5
WS (the only one where the difference is truly decimal place marginal): Shai - 6.6, Jokic - 6.4

I don't disregard anything actually. Well except for BPM which is a demonstrably flawed stat that people blindly use the same way they used to blindly use PER in the 2010s. Jokic has been similarly great offensively this year. My point is that Shai is not just leading because the Thunder have a great record. The Thunder have a great record because his impact in the first 25 games has been best in the world level. Sorry he can't average a 30 point triple double while he's doing that

Jokic leads the league in:

Raw Stats - RPG, APG, 5th in PPG on 73 TS%...

Adv Stats - PER, VORP, ORTG, BPM, OBPM, DBPM

And his usage % is closer to Nickeil Alexander Walker than it is to SGA...

Pretty wild when you consider that last point ^

The advanced stats you're providing here aren't really advanced at all anymore. They're purely box score related.

Especially citing DBPM here is absolutely comical, sorry mate. A defensive stat that weighs assists heavily for the Center position shouldn't be taken seriously at all, we know how these formulas work, it's 2025.

ORTG is a very bad stat to use as a single player as well, unless you believe Jordan Walsh is the 4th best offensive player in the NBA and Peyton Watson to be a better offensive player than Nikola Jokic.

PER I won't even argue about anymore, it's been outdated for a good while.

VORP and BPM at least have their uses still, VORP still has its outliers but has fewer than others, and at least the best players tend to be correctly placed at the top from what I know.

I've made the cases for Jokic being the MVP from 2021 on myself a bunch of times using none of the advanced metrics you pointed but other ones like LEBRON and EPM. It's just weird that some of the metrics I used to favor him now have him 2nd but apparently the Jokic crowd who loved those stats now don't like them that much anymore, so the user above is right when it comes to that one.

I don't have a problem with Jokic winning the MVP. The discourse is getting weird these couple of seasons, is what I'm saying.

For your future info, VORP is not really a separate stat from BPM either. It's basically just BPM multiplied by a "minute's played" number. OBPM, DBPM, and VORP are just stats made using the BPM number.

And yeah BPM is the one that Westbrook already broke before that is doubling assist values for centers and also giving additional value to high assist centers as plus defenders.

[MrBigShot]

SGA has elevated his game to another level and will likely win his 2nd in a row if he keeps this up. He's scoring just as much as last year but taking nearly 3 less shots a game to do it.