2014-2015 NBA MVP Discussion

[Dupp]

14 games I think?

I'd honestly have no issue w/ him 3rd right now. I agree its Curry/Harden then the rest though.

I'd put him 4th. I just think Cavs are gonna have a bit better record and a lot better seeding than the thunder. I'm pretty sure it'll finish 1)Steph 2)Harden 3)Lebron 4)Westbrook 5)Davis.
Davis could jump higher possibly but i think record will keep him down and combined with him now missing a few games it might bump him from 3rd down to fifth.


I do think the other four of those guys not named lebron have had a lot more spectacular games and performances than Lebron but he's still incredibly consistent and we might end up with an ok record.


Fwiw i think Davis has been the best player in the nba this year, pretty easily too.

Honestly, he's been a good bit better than Lebron statistically even, and OKC is winning about 70 percent of the games he plays in.

Raw stats are very close and i'd guess advanced ones too. Maybe not though. Can't remember our win % with Lebon but id say it'd be around that mark too.

Like i said westbrook is having a lot more great games and yeah he's doing it without durant half the time i just think team record might give Lebron the edge come seasons end.

[bondom34]

I'd put him 4th. I just think Cavs are gonna have a bit better record and a lot better seeding than the thunder. I'm pretty sure it'll finish 1)Steph 2)Harden 3)Lebron 4)Westbrook 5)Davis.
Davis could jump higher possibly but i think record will keep him down and combined with him now missing a few games it might bump him from 3rd down to fifth.


I do think the other four of those guys not named lebron have had a lot more spectacular games and performances than Lebron but he's still incredibly consistent and we might end up with an ok record.


Fwiw i think Davis has been the best player in the nba this year, pretty easily too.

Honestly, he's been a good bit better than Lebron statistically even, and OKC is winning about 70 percent of the games he plays in.

Raw stats are very close and i'd guess advanced ones too. Maybe not though. Can't remember our win % with Lebon but id say it'd be around that mark too.

Like i said westbrook is having a lot more great games and yeah he's doing it without durant half the time i just think team record might give Lebron the edge come seasons end.

Nope, both on/off (RPM) and other advanced stats rate Russ a good bit higher.
http://bkref.com/tiny/J75CP

More WS in way fewer minutes, much higher WS/48, and RPM almost a point higher. Russ is playing out of his mind.

[Dupp]

Honestly, he's been a good bit better than Lebron statistically even, and OKC is winning about 70 percent of the games he plays in.

Raw stats are very close and i'd guess advanced ones too. Maybe not though. Can't remember our win % with Lebon but id say it'd be around that mark too.

Like i said westbrook is having a lot more great games and yeah he's doing it without durant half the time i just think team record might give Lebron the edge come seasons end.

Nope, both on/off (RPM) and other advanced stats rate Russ a good bit higher.
http://bkref.com/tiny/J75CP

More WS in way fewer minutes, much higher WS/48, and RPM almost a point higher. Russ is playing out of his mind.

Dunno how RPM is calculated so hard to comment. WS is basically the same between the two. Yeah per 48 its a gap but lebron is playing more minutes so the total production is almost identical in that regard (not talking bout rpm). If you guys were like golden state and murdering the season i'd say fine it doesnt matter the job is done in a faster time period, but you're not and you're struggling through the season so he doesnt get bonus points for playing less minutes.

Also Davis is playing even more out of his mind that both of them so if we go by that merit alone he's 3rd.

[bondom34]

Raw stats are very close and i'd guess advanced ones too. Maybe not though. Can't remember our win % with Lebon but id say it'd be around that mark too.

Like i said westbrook is having a lot more great games and yeah he's doing it without durant half the time i just think team record might give Lebron the edge come seasons end.

Nope, both on/off (RPM) and other advanced stats rate Russ a good bit higher.
http://bkref.com/tiny/J75CP

More WS in way fewer minutes, much higher WS/48, and RPM almost a point higher. Russ is playing out of his mind.

Dunno how RPM is calculated so hard to comment. WS is basically the same between the two. Yeah per 48 its a gap but lebron is playing more minutes so the total production is almost identical in that regard (not talking bout rpm). If you guys were like golden state and murdering the season i'd say fine it doesnt matter the job is done in a faster time period, but you're not and you're struggling through the season so he doesnt get bonus points for playing less minutes.

Also Davis is playing even more out of his mind that both of them so if we go by that merit alone he's 3rd.

RPM is on/off adjusted for strength of team and opponent, similar to RAPM. And saying WS are similar but minutes differ isn't something that gives LBJ an advantage. Russ played fewer minutes due to missed games. He's also leading the league and at a historic BPM.

[HotRocks34]

Russ is going crazy. He's gotta get some consideration here, IMO.

[gmoney411]

It is small, which is why I say "until" above. Until it happens, there isn't much doubt. You can't have a guy lead both and not consider them mvp frontruner.

Sure you can. RPM isn't the end all stat. Plus Harden has a pretty good lead in OPM and the offensive side is what most people are referring to when they say Curry has a bigger impact.

Impact is impact. If we start cherrypicking stats that are not trying to capture overall impact, then we can make a lot of people the mvp.

Or we could just look at overall impact and the quality of the team.

I might agree with that if the stats weren't so close but when you are talking about 8.10 v. 8.03 I think delving deeper into the stats is reasonable. These are stats made up by people to help us judge players but they aren't perfect. When they are as close as they are between Harden and Curry eye test, record, teammates etc. should all be factored in. Saying best record and best rpm ends the argument is a lazy analysis in this situation.

[oeskaer]

LeBron missed 10 games already, Russ 14. OKC is in the west, they had a lot of injuries (KD, Westbrook, Jackson, McGary) and still have a chance to get to the 7th or even 6th spot.

If LeBron is considered as a MVP candidate, Westbrook certainly must be considered as well.

I see it like this:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Westbrook
4. LBJ
5. Marc Gasol
6. Davis

[legendO_Kiko]

Curry is amazing no doubt but I don't see how he gets the nod over harden. Harden has done everything for the rockets. curry and klay both started for the west in the all star game and klay has a higher season high. Harden is doing it all without Dwight and they are still gonna get home court. The guy has been incredible

[kaiballz]

but lets not confuse the fact that he's the best player at the moment on an 8th seed team. OKC is 27-15 in games Russ has played. Compare that 42-9 with Curry and the Warriors. Russ shouldn't even be in the conversation...

8th seed only due to injuries a devestating amount of injuries not only to Westbrook but to Durant and the rest of the supporting cast. And Curry has the better supporting cast BY FAR, and have had the benefit of one of the easiest schedules in the league so far. I still give him the edge but to say Russell shouldnt be in the convo is ridiculous.

historical evidence actually as good as proves that westbrook won't get it based on games missed. I think hes been playing at an amazing level but its not happening.

[nikster]

but lets not confuse the fact that he's the best player at the moment on an 8th seed team. OKC is 27-15 in games Russ has played. Compare that 42-9 with Curry and the Warriors. Russ shouldn't even be in the conversation...

8th seed only due to injuries a devestating amount of injuries not only to Westbrook but to Durant and the rest of the supporting cast. And Curry has the better supporting cast BY FAR, and have had the benefit of one of the easiest schedules in the league so far. I still give him the edge but to say Russell shouldnt be in the convo is ridiculous.

historical evidence actually as good as proves that westbrook won't get it based on games missed. I think hes been playing at an amazing level but its not happening.

i understand that. Im Not saying he will win it, like you said because of games missed (tho i dont think 14 out of 82 is too bad) and their record. But his play should at least put him in the convo

[Bondman]

#1 Harden, #2 Curry, #3 LBJ, #4 WB

If Rockets win 55 games, Harden should get it. Straight carrying that team. No chance they win without him, and I don't even like his game. Hope he chokes in the playoffs again

He hasn't beaten curry yet and his record is not what GSW record is. Should get it? If we throw out 0-4 record and overall record. Yea i could see it.

Might be on to something there, Ballerhogger. Harden has a strong case with historical precedence, but that 0-4 head-to-head record could be a problem. Like 01 Iverson, 88 Jordan, and 82 & 79 Moses, Harden’s team might win at least 56% of its games while giving its star little support (defined here as no teammate above 6.8 WS).

These guys won despite other players having great years on the best teams:

01 Iverson vs Shaq/Duncan
88 Jordan vs Bird/Magic
82 Moses vs Erving, Bird
79 Moses vs Jabbar (Rockets & Lakers were mediocre, but the best teams didn’t have any worthy candidates – Sikma & Hayes)

Bird in 88 was a monster: 29.9 pts, 9.3 boards, 6.1 ast, 2nd-best team in the league… still lost the MVP. If Curry is like Bird & Harden is like Jordan, Harden looks like he has a pretty good chance to win.

However, after reading your post, I checked the above MVPs and their head-to-head series vs their main competitors. They were all able to at least split the series or win a majority. I don't know how the voters will factor this since I have no historical precedence to compare directly. If it doesn't matter to them, then Harden probably wins. If it does matter, then Curry probably wins.

[TaylorMonkey]

Sure you can. RPM isn't the end all stat. Plus Harden has a pretty good lead in OPM and the offensive side is what most people are referring to when they say Curry has a bigger impact.

Impact is impact. If we start cherrypicking stats that are not trying to capture overall impact, then we can make a lot of people the mvp.

Or we could just look at overall impact and the quality of the team.

I might agree with that if the stats weren't so close but when you are talking about 8.10 v. 8.03 I think delving deeper into the stats is reasonable. These are stats made up by people to help us judge players but they aren't perfect. When they are as close as they are between Harden and Curry eye test, record, teammates etc. should all be factored in. Saying best record and best rpm ends the argument is a lazy analysis in this situation.

RPM isn't the end all but it's much more comprehensive and takes more factors into account than simple box scores or the "he's carrying his team, look how bad they are" narrative.

A good understanding of RPM and RAPM assumes that you DO look at all the factors involved and also acknowledge that there are things your eye might miss and that don't show up in box scores. Excellent off ball denial? That shows up in RPM. Would be assists that ends up in free throws? Show up in RPM. The hockey assist? Shows up in RPM. Being a feared shooter that draws multiple defenders with "gravity" and creates lanes without actually scoring? Shows up in RPM.

"RPM is a lazy made up number" is actually a pretty lazy analysis of RPM, often in favor of even lazier stats and analysis.

[day1086]

Even games won aside, harden isn't even significantly outplaying curry individually.

Slightly more points, slightly worse efficiency, slightly more rebounds, less assists, more turnovers

Lower fg% 3pt% ft% ts% and PER, lower RPM

His team is worse, but his team performance is also worse, as expected. People who say he "does more with less" I don't think understand that expression. He would be doing more with less if he had a better record with a worse team. But instead he has a worse record with a worse team as expected.

If curry loses it is a robbery and completely against historical precedence

[gmoney411]

Impact is impact. If we start cherrypicking stats that are not trying to capture overall impact, then we can make a lot of people the mvp.

Or we could just look at overall impact and the quality of the team.

I might agree with that if the stats weren't so close but when you are talking about 8.10 v. 8.03 I think delving deeper into the stats is reasonable. These are stats made up by people to help us judge players but they aren't perfect. When they are as close as they are between Harden and Curry eye test, record, teammates etc. should all be factored in. Saying best record and best rpm ends the argument is a lazy analysis in this situation.

RPM isn't the end all but it's much more comprehensive and takes more factors into account than simple box scores or the "he's carrying his team, look how bad they are" narrative.

A good understanding of RPM and RAPM assumes that you DO look at all the factors involved and also acknowledge that there are things your eye might miss and that don't show up in box scores. Excellent off ball denial? That shows up in RPM. Would be assists that ends up in free throws? Show up in RPM. The hockey assist? Shows up in RPM. Being a feared shooter that draws multiple defenders with "gravity" and creates lanes without actually scoring? Shows up in RPM.

"RPM is a lazy made up number" is actually a pretty lazy analysis of RPM, often in favor of even lazier stats and analysis.

Why would you put RPM is a lazy made up number in quotation marks? That clearly isn't what I said. I didn't even say RPM is a bad stat. I said that saying best record and best rpm ends MVP discussion is lazy and I stand by that. Stats are great to come to conclusions but so is watching actual basketball games. Is there a stat out there that reflects defenses respecting Thompson and Barnes shooting open 3s more than Bev an Ariza? Are there stats showing that Bogut in the high posts makes an offense run smoother than having the offensive black hole that is Joey Dorsey. Are there stats reflecting that Kerr has put in a better offense than McHale? Other issues matter in the discussion. And I'm sure there are things to take into account for Curry as well.

[TaylorMonkey]

Curry is amazing no doubt but I don't see how he gets the nod over harden. Harden has done everything for the rockets. curry and klay both started for the west in the all star game and klay has a higher season high. Harden is doing it all without Dwight and they are still gonna get home court. The guy has been incredible

Klay's been pretty mediocre since his season high.

And really, in an 82 game season, you're going to knock Curry for having 1 point less in a single game than Thompson on their season highs? Really?

And you know why Curry didn't break Thompson's high? Because he decided to pass it to Thompson for the last shot even though he could have launched it-- because Klay had been a bit quiet that night, and probably because Steph thought he'd let Klay's high stand since he wouldn't be breaking his own career high anyway.

That's how selfless Curry is. That's what an MVP looks like.

And if you're going to go down that route, Harden doesn't even beat either their season highs even as a ball dominant first option with plenty of usage and opportunity.

You know what Klay looked like without Curry? Early season bad Harden. Extremely high usage and bad FG% with good efficiency only because of free throws. You know what the Warriors looked like without Curry? A #2 offense that suddenly couldn't even shoot above .400 and couldn't beat a sub .500 East team with no stars.

[TaylorMonkey]

I might agree with that if the stats weren't so close but when you are talking about 8.10 v. 8.03 I think delving deeper into the stats is reasonable. These are stats made up by people to help us judge players but they aren't perfect. When they are as close as they are between Harden and Curry eye test, record, teammates etc. should all be factored in. Saying best record and best rpm ends the argument is a lazy analysis in this situation.

RPM isn't the end all but it's much more comprehensive and takes more factors into account than simple box scores or the "he's carrying his team, look how bad they are" narrative.

A good understanding of RPM and RAPM assumes that you DO look at all the factors involved and also acknowledge that there are things your eye might miss and that don't show up in box scores. Excellent off ball denial? That shows up in RPM. Would be assists that ends up in free throws? Show up in RPM. The hockey assist? Shows up in RPM. Being a feared shooter that draws multiple defenders with "gravity" and creates lanes without actually scoring? Shows up in RPM.

"RPM is a lazy made up number" is actually a pretty lazy analysis of RPM, often in favor of even lazier stats and analysis.

Why would you put RPM is a lazy made up number in quotation marks? That clearly isn't what I said. I didn't even say RPM is a bad stat. I said that saying best record and best rpm ends MVP discussion is lazy and I stand by that. Stats are great to come to conclusions but so is watching actual basketball games. Is there a stat out there that reflects defenses respecting Thompson and Barnes shooting open 3s more than Bev an Ariza? Are there stats showing that Bogut in the high posts makes an offense run smoother than having the offensive black hole that is Joey Dorsey. Are there stats reflecting that Kerr has put in a better offense than McHale? Other issues matter in the discussion. And I'm sure there are things to take into account for Curry as well.

Yeah there are actually stats for most of what you're asking. It's how you verify what you think you're seeing. The easiest one is the stat that shows Kerr's offense is better than McHales. Just look at the offensive efficiency stats. That's practically the definition of "better offense". And you can drill down to assist rates, pace, passes per possession, etc to understand why.

And my bad. It's late and somehow I read that RPM was a made up stat for lazy analysis. If that's not what you meant, my bad. But it's rather informative since it's designed to factor things that influence what ultimately matters-- the score differential. It does have its own issues and amongst similar players, small differences don't really mean much.

However it's extremely useful in deflating the narrative that one player is somehow doing more for his team an is having a bigger impact because his team stinks over another player who supposedly isn't doing as much because that players' team is better constructed.

Such a simplistic narrative is completely based on subjective "badness" without and subjective "goodness" with the player. Similar RPM scores between the two players suggests the narrative isn't actually true.

[Bondman]

RAPM is not a very good stat to try to figure out who will be MVP. PER, BPM & VORP are better. WS is much better.

If curry loses it is a robbery and completely against historical precedence

What is your explanation for 01 Iverson, 88 Jordan, and 82/79 Moses?

The Rockets are on pace to win 56 games or so. To win that many games without any of your teammates contributing more than 6.8 WS is impressive. Team wins:

01 Iverson: 56
88 Jordan: 50
82 Moses: 46
79 Moses: 47

[gmoney411]

RPM isn't the end all but it's much more comprehensive and takes more factors into account than simple box scores or the "he's carrying his team, look how bad they are" narrative.

A good understanding of RPM and RAPM assumes that you DO look at all the factors involved and also acknowledge that there are things your eye might miss and that don't show up in box scores. Excellent off ball denial? That shows up in RPM. Would be assists that ends up in free throws? Show up in RPM. The hockey assist? Shows up in RPM. Being a feared shooter that draws multiple defenders with "gravity" and creates lanes without actually scoring? Shows up in RPM.

"RPM is a lazy made up number" is actually a pretty lazy analysis of RPM, often in favor of even lazier stats and analysis.

Why would you put RPM is a lazy made up number in quotation marks? That clearly isn't what I said. I didn't even say RPM is a bad stat. I said that saying best record and best rpm ends MVP discussion is lazy and I stand by that. Stats are great to come to conclusions but so is watching actual basketball games. Is there a stat out there that reflects defenses respecting Thompson and Barnes shooting open 3s more than Bev an Ariza? Are there stats showing that Bogut in the high posts makes an offense run smoother than having the offensive black hole that is Joey Dorsey. Are there stats reflecting that Kerr has put in a better offense than McHale? Other issues matter in the discussion. And I'm sure there are things to take into account for Curry as well.

Yeah there are actually stats for most of what you're asking. It's how you verify what you think you're seeing. The easiest one is the stat that shows Kerr's offense is better than McHales. Just look at the offensive efficiency stats. That's practically the definition of "better offense". And you can drill down to assist rates, pace, passes per possession, etc to understand why.

And my bad. It's late and somehow I read that RPM was a made up stat for lazy analysis. If that's not what you meant, my bad. But it's rather informative since it's designed to factor things that influence what ultimately matters-- the score differential. It does have its own issues and amongst similar players, small differences don't really mean much.

However it's extremely useful in deflating the narrative that one player is somehow doing more for his team an is having a bigger impact because his team stinks over another player who supposedly isn't doing as much because that players' team is better constructed.

Such a simplistic narrative is completely based on subjective "badness" without and subjective "goodness" with the player. Similar RPM scores between the two players suggests the narrative isn't actually true.

I disagree that offensive efficiency shows that Kerr's offense is better than McHale's. Does that mean that Thib's offensive gameplan is better than Pop's? Those stats are useful but anybody that watch's NBA games can see that Pop runs a better offense than Thibs does. Just so happens that Pop has been dealing with a lot of injuries this year.

And it's not subjective badness to say that the Warriors supporting cast is better than the Rockets supporting cast. Klay Thompson made the all star team because he is a good player. He is shooting high percentages because he is a good shooter. The Warriors have 3 players in the top 20 for real plus minus. The Rockets second best RPM player is ranked 80th and that is Jones who has missed a majority of the season. Does that not show that the Warriors have more impactful players than the Rockets do?

[Benedict_Boozer]

LeBron missed 10 games already, Russ 14. OKC is in the west, they had a lot of injuries (KD, Westbrook, Jackson, McGary) and still have a chance to get to the 7th or even 6th spot.

If LeBron is considered as a MVP candidate, Westbrook certainly must be considered as well.

I see it like this:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Westbrook
4. LBJ
5. Marc Gasol
6. Davis

I got no problems with this list right here. Hopefully Russ starts to get some media attention for his play lately.

[BScoreez]

Curry is amazing no doubt but I don't see how he gets the nod over harden. Harden has done everything for the rockets. curry and klay both started for the west in the all star game and klay has a higher season high. Harden is doing it all without Dwight and they are still gonna get home court. The guy has been incredible

I don't get why having Klay on his team penalizes Curry. Sure Klay is a better 2nd option than what the Rockets have, but the Warriors have the 2nd best offense in the league and the Rockets only have the 13th. Without Klay the Warriors would drop, but I doubt they would drop that far. Without Curry they might drop even further and then the argument becomes well Curry is doing more offensively with less than Harden. Curry has only missed 4 games due to injury these past two seasons, but when he does the Warriors offense falls off a cliff and they lost all four of those games. They averaged 87 points per game in those games vs. 104.3 and 110.4 for the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

So it is true that Harden has less to work with, but his teams overall performance proves this and doesn't mean he is more important. All it proves is that Harden is turning a below average offense into an average one, while Curry is turning an average offense into an elite one. Take away Harden and the Rockets probably drop close to 8 spots in standings. Take away Curry and the Warriors probably drop close to 8 spots in the standings. Both have had incredible seasons and since they are relatively close stats wise (stats favor Curry slightly), my MVP vote would go to the player that gets his team to the elite status even if he does have a better supporting cast.