RGM GOAT Debate Thread

[MrPainfulTruth]

Amazing how any long-term RAPM sample identifies Lebron as one of the best non-big defenders ever, yet somehow we are supposed to believe that was all based on one little five-year stretch because that is what a couple of random online databases abstractly suggest.

Did you watch any games within the last five years or are you clinging to numbers in "random online databases" that happen to suit your case?

Are you saying he is even an average defender those last few years that are supposedly so meaningful because they cement his longevity GOAT argument (which is the only one he has)?

One of the most entertaining aspects of Jordan worship is how it seems to go hand in hand with functional illiteracy.

one of the most stereotypical aspects of LeBron worshippers is how they go ad hominem when they cannot attack the actual argument (because its true). Thank you sir!

In all fairness though english was my fourth or fifth language and i am well aware of my deficiencies. It would be more helpful to point out actual mistakes though. To make my point clear: LeBron has been and continues to be a horrible defender who visibly gives zero effort on that end of the game consequently hurting his team (see +/-). Since the LBJ influencers continue to force feed the longevity argument to the world these years should count and no excuse should be accepted. Taking at least four, possibly five years of this pathetic performance into his all career average certainly makes him a far inferior defender compared to MJ's average. I hope i managed to help you understand the message now.

[michaelm]

Amazing how any long-term RAPM sample identifies Lebron as one of the best non-big defenders ever, yet somehow we are supposed to believe that was all based on one little five-year stretch because that is what a couple of random online databases abstractly suggest.

Did you watch any games within the last five years or are you clinging to numbers in "random online databases" that happen to suit your case?

Are you saying he is even an average defender those last few years that are supposedly so meaningful because they cement his longevity GOAT argument (which is the only one he has)?

One of the most entertaining aspects of Jordan worship is how it seems to go hand in hand with functional illiteracy.

Ah yes, argumentum ad hominem, the old stand-by, and invariably a sign of who is winning a debate.

[michaelm]

Did you watch any games within the last five years or are you clinging to numbers in "random online databases" that happen to suit your case?

Are you saying he is even an average defender those last few years that are supposedly so meaningful because they cement his longevity GOAT argument (which is the only one he has)?

One of the most entertaining aspects of Jordan worship is how it seems to go hand in hand with functional illiteracy.

one of the most stereotypical aspects of LeBron worshippers is how they go ad hominem when they cannot attack the actual argument (because its true). Thank you sir!

In all fairness though english was my fourth or fifth language and i am well aware of my deficiencies. It would be more helpful to point out actual mistakes though. To make my point clear: LeBron has been and continues to be a horrible defender who visibly gives zero effort on that end of the game consequently hurting his team (see +/-). Since the LBJ influencers continue to force feed the longevity argument to the world these years should count and no excuse should be accepted. Taking at least four, possibly five years of this pathetic performance into his all career average certainly makes him a far inferior defender compared to MJ's average. I hope i managed to help you understand the message now.

I just made the same point about ad hominem without having read this, your most recent post.

Both players are great obviously, and I have no problem with anyone who wants to consider LeBron the greater player, although in my own biased opinion no compelling case has been made or can be made.

Jordan’s achievements are set in stone, as LeBron’s will be when he eventually retires. What irks me is when after attempts to tear down Jordan’s personal and team achievements and his career statistics which are pretty much unimpeachable are rebuffed this is construed as Jordan worshipping or LeBron hatred.

LeBron’s achievements and statistics in nearly all categories are also unimpeachable, but for me both players led teams to titles as finals MVP at age 35, unlikely and outstanding achievements in themselves, but unsurprisingly neither had any chance of winning titles thereafter, and while that chapter was closed for Jordan decades ago I have little doubt the same is true of LeBron, barring some extreme measure such as returning to the Cavs a second time and coming off the bench for them.

So if piling up statistics in some but not all categories in a losing cause better than Jordan did after the age of 35, particularly in the 2 years Jordan was not playing, floats the boat of LeBron partisans good for them, but this doesn’t really make any case for his supremacy imo. I know something about statistics if not basketball statistics, and some of the unproven and unprovable so called advanced metrics which are selectively quoted, on both sides of the debate admittedly, weren’t even in existence for Jordan to chase when he was playing.

[MrPainfulTruth]

One of the most entertaining aspects of Jordan worship is how it seems to go hand in hand with functional illiteracy.

one of the most stereotypical aspects of LeBron worshippers is how they go ad hominem when they cannot attack the actual argument (because its true). Thank you sir!

In all fairness though english was my fourth or fifth language and i am well aware of my deficiencies. It would be more helpful to point out actual mistakes though. To make my point clear: LeBron has been and continues to be a horrible defender who visibly gives zero effort on that end of the game consequently hurting his team (see +/-). Since the LBJ influencers continue to force feed the longevity argument to the world these years should count and no excuse should be accepted. Taking at least four, possibly five years of this pathetic performance into his all career average certainly makes him a far inferior defender compared to MJ's average. I hope i managed to help you understand the message now.

I just made the same point about ad hominem without having read this, your most recent post.

Both players are great obviously, and I have no problem with anyone who wants to consider LeBron the greater player, although in my own biased opinion no compelling case has been made or can be made. .

Jordan’s achievements are set in stone, as LeBron’s will be when he eventually retires. What irks me is when after attempts to tear down Jordan’s personal and team achievements and his career statistics which are pretty much unimpeachable are rebuffed this is construed as Jordan worshipping or LeBron hatred.

LeBron’s achievements and statistics in nearly all categories are also unimpeachable, but for me both players led teams to titles as finals MVP, unlikely and outstanding achievements in themselves, but unsurprisingly neither had any chance of winning titles thereafter, and while that chapter was closed for Jordan decades ago I have little doubt the same is true of LeBron, barring some extreme measure such as returning to the Cavs a second time and coming off the bench for them.

So if piling up statistics in some but not all categories in a losing cause better than Jordan did after the age of 35, particularly in the 2 years Jordan was not playing, floats the boat of LeBron partisans good for them, but this doesn’t really make any case for his supremacy imo. I know something about statistics if not basketball statistics, and some of the unproven and unprovable so called advanced metrics which are selectively quoted, on both sides of the debate admittedly, weren’t even in existence for Jordan to chase when he was playing.

Thank you, i agree with those points. I would like to empathize one aspect that i failed to really make clear in my post. I think LeBron has been soundly beaten in all categories but his longevity. I believe that you cant have it both ways when it comes to those last four to five years. His camp claims that everything past the bubble championship* is just gravy but that doesnt work. Either those years count in terms of GOAT case, i.e. longevity. Then we have to evaluate the whole package which in sum is very negative (see his lack of defensive effort, turnovers, uninterested in team result vs. padding his numbers). Or we can say those years dont count. Then all those "career" stats are meaningless because they were earned by load managing while playing.

To some extent that goes for the point about him winning another championship, too. Even if he won one more - as an extra off the bench - would that even count for his GOAT case? He would be a glorified Robert Horry, probably of less value actaully for his team.

To have a real comparison to MJ, we'd need to agree on a cut off in LeBrons career while he was still a great player, maybe 2019. Then he'd have a better case for GOAT but less of these meaningless padded stats. But cant have it both ways.

[AEnigma]

It is not an ad hominem when neither of you have bothered responding to what I actually wrote.

[eminence]

LeBron being a bad defender at 40/in year 22 is not a meaningful criticism of his career long defense, he was at least fine all the way through last season and excellent in prime (for a 3/4, Tier 1 bigs still easily clear). Not sold on deserving a DPOY any particular year, but 'only' 6 All-D awards undersells him notably.

[lessthanjake]

Amazing how any long-term RAPM sample identifies Lebron as one of the best non-big defenders ever, yet somehow we are supposed to believe that was all based on one little five-year stretch because that is what a couple of random online databases abstractly suggest.

Not sure why you simultaneously use a RAPM measure as evidence, while RAPM you don’t like is derisively referred to as the “abstract[] suggest[ions]” of a “random online database[].”

Because as you are fully aware, different sources give different outputs over small samples.

In any event, the DRAPM data that you refer to that way actually tells us something that is very consistent with LeBron’s all-defense selections. In other words, contemporaneous perception and five-year DRAPM basically both tell us the same thing about the history of LeBron’s defense. Which should give us more confidence that it’s right.

Or we could use a different collection of RAPM data which marks him as a consistently elite non-big and which in turn reflects the reality of his career long measures, but nope, much easier to spam what you found seems least favourable.

It happens to also be consistent with quite a lot of other data sources too.

- For instance, the NBAShotCharts RAPM never had LeBron higher than 37th in five-year DRAPM, but started in the early 2010’s so didn’t have that 2009-2013 timeframe.

- The NBArapm website is a bit higher on his defense than TheBasketballDatabase or NBAShotCharts but only ever has him top 10 in five-year DRAPM in the same exact spans that TheBasketballDatabase has him top 10, and almost always has him pretty far off of that (and definitely always far off if we look only at spans that don’t include years in that 2009-2013 span).

So that’s now several five-year RAPM sources that all agree on this point. What about single-season metrics that use box and tracking data to lower the huge variance in single-season RAPM? It’s a similar story.

- His Defensive EPM was never in the top 30 outside of the 2009-2013 timespan in which it was top 30 every year.

- RAPTOR started just after that 2009-2013 span, and LeBron never finished higher than 33rd in the NBA in Defensive RAPTOR, and was more often found either in the negatives or essentially neutral.

- LEBRON started in 2010, and LeBron’s highest D-LEBRON after that 2009-2013 span was in 2016, with a 0.87 D-LEBRON that was 85th in the league (note: I pulled this from the LEBRON website, which seems to have changed recently). He had a better D-LEBRON than that every single season that they have in that 2009-2013 span. He also had a negative D-LEBRON in almost half the seasons after that 2009-2013 span.

- DPM has LeBron never getting better than 38th in any season in his career in Defensive DPM. Granted, while 2009-2013 does generally look like his best five-year span in that regard, it’s not all that great either so doesn’t look a whole lot better than the rest.

So yeah, I’d say there’s quite a lot of data that backs the conclusion that LeBron was not a particularly elite defender outside of the 2009-2013 span. And, again, this is also consistent with what happened in terms of all-defense selections—which should give us confidence that this data is correct.

[AEnigma]

That is not a comparative exercise; you are just throwing out rankings as if “all-defence” should be blindly taking the top ten in DRAPM and calling it a day.

And of course you when you take the approach that everything from 2009-13 should be sequestered, you are then primarily taking five-year splits which tend to sunk by one particularly bad year. So NBARAPM has him 21st in 2006/07 DRAPM, 17th in 2007/08 DRAPM, 9th in 2015/16 DRAPM, 2nd in 2019/20 DRAPM, and 6th in 2020/21 DRAPM. Increase it to three years, he is 35th from 2005-07, 28th from 2006-08 (and 33rd from 2005-08), 22nd from 2014-16, 28th from 2015-17, 5th from 2019-21, and 34th from 2020-22 (and 28th from 2019-22). And of course you typically glossed over what his career (or most of a career) long stretches all indicate, which is not something you see from pretty much any other “short defensive peak” player — again, as you are fully aware. But no one is arguing he should have been on an all-defensive team in 2018, or even recently, so why the focus on those specific samples.

[bisme37]

New thread is up. Continue here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2432659