Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Offseason Preview - The Pellys

RNsteve · Post #21 » by **RNsteve** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:41 pm

It be greatly if you guys linked your previous team previews.

Rich Michmond · Post #22 » by **Rich Michmond** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:53 pm

RNsteve wrote:It be greatly if you guys linked your previous team previews.

Kings - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342100&p=40983625#p40983625
Bucks - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342355
Knicks - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345450
Hornets - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343704
Pistons - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343829
Celtics - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342628
Magic - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343074
Jazz - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341821
76ers - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

RNsteve · Post #23 » by **RNsteve** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:02 pm

Thanks. Tried searching it up before with less complete results.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using RealGM Forums mobile app

TDotsfinest97 · Post #24 » by **TDotsfinest97** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:10 pm

In order to make the playoffs, the Pelicans have to better than:Nuggets,Phoenix,Memphis,Trail Blazers,Rockets,Warriors,Clippers,OKC,San Antonio, Dallas

No.

BeesWax · Post #25 » by **BeesWax** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:22 pm

floppymoose wrote:
jdm3 wrote:This does explain a lot about where you are coming from. Having no clue what the rookie [...] players are capable of would put you at a distinct disadvantage in analyzing the team.

You would be surprised at how little that actually matters. I editted out the second year part because it doesn't apply. Russ Smith is a rookie.

You would be surprised how much it matters and how much the 2nd year deal matter. Lots of rookies struggle in their fsecond years but come closer to what they were in college. So yes your opions on the state of franchises is way off since you don't know much about young players. It makes sense now that your projections on teams are so terrible.

504ByrdGang · Post #26 » by **504ByrdGang** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:40 pm

Pelicans fans post mostly on pelicanreport and tiger droppings they have their own their communities.

504ByrdGang · Post #27 » by **504ByrdGang** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:09 am

My Review from a pelicans fan

Line up
Jure/Rivers /Russ
Gordon/Jimmer
Tyreke/Salmons/Miller
AD/Ryan/Babbitt
Asik/Alexis/Withey/Young

The starting lineup is a very powerful one with scoring from every position but the C. I expect in the first half Tyreke will play extended minutes he will play a lot of times with the bench players and expect a lot of rest in the second half and for him to come back later in the 3rd and 4th quarters. So that should help out the bench production. So a line up of Tyreke/Jimmer/Salmons/Ryan/Alexis he's in a line up surrounded by shooters and spacing which is perfect for him.

Austin will also get some of the minutes as the back up pg. The FO believes this will be his breakout year if not he will battle that position with Russ. A great college player who play style resembles a ty lawson & Beverly hybrid.
Trying to score on this team imo will be extremely difficult for guard with a defensive pg in Jrue and Asik in the paint and AD as the weak side defense which he excels at. I also feel if you have a good wing player they will cause us tons of trouble.
I don't think the bench is as big of a problem as people make it because we have a team of versatile players who can all handle the ball and been in situations to carry a team and they can take turns doing that with the bench unit. Many of our bench players also played major minutes last season as the injuries piled up.
I think playoffs are a extremely resonable goal for this time with the range from a 6-8 seed. The x factor of this team is Gordon.Gordon has stated all offseason this has been his first in years where he has been able to train. His main focus has been to regain his explosiveness. If he does that and return to his former game I can see us as a 4th seed.

Last season with tyreke as a starter he averaged 22/6/6 and the team went 11-11 in that span. So i think that is another understated production this team will include next season. Also if AD take anot her jump in production. The end of game line ups will be Jrue/Gordon/Reke/Ryan/Ad .

I can see between 52-46 wins neXT season.

Post #28 » by **floppymoose** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:31 am

jdm3 wrote:
floppymoose wrote:
jdm3 wrote:This does explain a lot about where you are coming from. Having no clue what the rookie [...] players are capable of would put you at a distinct disadvantage in analyzing the team.

You would be surprised at how little that actually matters. I editted out the second year part because it doesn't apply. Russ Smith is a rookie.

You would be surprised how much it matters and how much the 2nd year deal matter.

Absolutely second year players matter when evaluating a team. Which has nothing to do with this discussion, because...

Russ Smith is not a second year player.

To say again what I said above, you would be surprised how little rookie matter when evaluating a team's record. Obviously there are exceptions, but it ends up not mattering much for most.

jdm3 wrote: It makes sense now that your projections on teams are so terrible.

Where can I find your projections at?

Post #29 » by **floppymoose** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:39 am

Rich Michmond wrote:
RNsteve wrote:It be greatly if you guys linked your previous team previews.

Kings - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342100&p=40983625#p40983625
Bucks - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342355
Knicks - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345450
Hornets - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343704
Pistons - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343829
Celtics - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342628
Magic - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343074
Jazz - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341821
76ers - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341521

Also Lakers: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1341640

BeesWax · Post #30 » by **BeesWax** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:57 am

floppymoose wrote:
jdm3 wrote:
floppymoose wrote:
You would be surprised at how little that actually matters. I editted out the second year part because it doesn't apply. Russ Smith is a rookie.

You would be surprised how much it matters and how much the 2nd year deal matter.

Absolutely second year players matter when evaluating a team. Which has nothing to do with this discussion, because...

Russ Smith is not a second year player.

To say again what I said above, you would be surprised how little rookie matter when evaluating a team's record. Obviously there are exceptions, but it ends up not mattering much for most.

jdm3 wrote: It makes sense now that your projections on teams are so terrible.

Where can I find your projections at?

Unlike some people I don't admit to knowing nothing about rookies and for all purposes second year guys then make broad sweeps at guessing things. I don't know enough about every team to make these predictions, just like you don't. Rookies and second year players are still evaluated potentially by what they did in college like I said before. Since you admit to knowing nothing there is far to much you have zero understanding of to make your picks.

I just brought up the point that you for all intents and purposes are losing around 60 players of some value to teams because you don't know basketball at the college level. But please go ahead and bomb more of these because they are hilarious.

Post #31 » by **floppymoose** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:59 am

got it. you can dish it out, but can't take it.

Post #32 » by **jazzfan1971** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:08 am

How many rookies are above replacement player level? I just don't think Rookies, especially those drafted outside the lotto or honestly the top 5 do much for team success except for fairly rare exceptions.

ThomCat94 · Post #33 » by **ThomCat94** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:16 am

Russ Smith was only the best player on the 2013 NCAA Basketball Champion Louisville Cardinals. I say get to know that name.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Fo

Post #34 » by **floppymoose** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:19 am

Nothing about this prediction is really about how good Russ Smith will be in the long run. He could be GOAT in the long run. It's just about this coming season.

suntzuballin · Post #35 » by **suntzuballin** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:45 am

reke evens is playin outta postion.

Sent from my SGH-I337M using RealGM Forums mobile app

sca · Post #36 » by **sca** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:09 am

TDotsfinest97 wrote:In order to make the playoffs, the Pelicans have to better than:Nuggets,Phoenix,Memphis,Trail Blazers,Rockets,Warriors,Clippers,OKC,San Antonio, Dallas

No.

Actually, they just need to be better than three of them (if we're convinced that the rest of the West sucks).

AussieCeltic · Post #37 » by **AussieCeltic** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:27 am

floppymoose wrote:Nothing about this prediction is really about how good Russ Smith will be in the long run. He could be GOAT in the long run. It's just about this coming season.

I think you and Jazzfan are missing the point. If you don't even know guys on the roster, whether they be rookies (Smith/Young) or 2nd year players (Withey), then don't be surprised when people are bemused by your predictions (which from my count, has happened in every thread thus far).

If you guys weren't mods, these threads would have been closed a long time ago due to lack of any real in depth analysis.

Post #38 » by **floppymoose** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:32 am

Who says I don't know about Withy? His value was included, and his value was actually above average for his role, so it was a positive effect. Not sure what you are going on about here.

hands11 · Post #39 » by **hands11** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:29 pm

jdm3 wrote:
jazzfan1971 wrote:Absolutely no idea. Russ Smith sounds like the guy that rotates my tires.

(I don't follow college ball in the least)

This does explain a lot about where you are coming from. Having no clue what the rookie and second year players are capable of would put you at a distinct disadvantage in analyzing the team.

He said he didn't know who ...

Russ Smith. Jeff Withey or Patric Young are.

I could see how not knowing rookies could not matter all that much. Most the time they don't have a big impact in their first year. The best more known players usually go to crap teams and even if they have good years, the team don't win a ton. Then if they end up producing in a way that is meaningful, you hear about them eventually in the NBA.

So on average, you can get away with not knowing, but you will miss out of projecting great value picks like Faried or Nikola Vucevic. But again, does that matter to projecting wins ? Not that much. Those players usually take 3 years before you can rely on them to contribute much to wins.

NO winning more is primarily about Osik, Davis, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson and John Salmons.

Where Russ Smith comes in is more about his defense then offense. Dude is pest as a defender.
Withey is a solid back up center who provides good rim protection with blocks.
Patric Young is just about having a bruiser. That will be his role if he see the court.
Then you have Austin Rivers who could turn into a microwave scorer ala DJ off the bench.

So the back ups can contribute nicely allowing the starters to rest without losing a lead and that important. But realing on so many young back ups is not ideal. Specially if their are injuries to starters.

NO will break out only if Gordon and Jrue can get it going and they stay healthy. Those are the two who can have a big role and are vet ready enough to produce. A healthy and productive year from Gordon can change that team.

If injuries happen and these younger player have to step in and contribute a lot, they aren't going to win.

Hell, even an Isiah Thomas didn't change the fortunes of SAC all that much. SAC still sucked. But we do now know who the last pick in that draft was.

LloydFree · Post #40 » by **LloydFree** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:44 pm

AussieCeltic wrote:
floppymoose wrote:Nothing about this prediction is really about how good Russ Smith will be in the long run. He could be GOAT in the long run. It's just about this coming season.

I think you and Jazzfan are missing the point. If you don't even know guys on the roster, whether they be rookies (Smith/Young) or 2nd year players (Withey), then don't be surprised when people are bemused by your predictions (which from my count, has happened in every thread thus far).

If you guys weren't mods, these threads would have been closed a long time ago due to lack of any real in depth analysis.

Exactly.

Also. Its hard to understand how two fans of a team that "tanked" all year, and had two (2) 1st round picks in the past draft, could not be aware of these guys.