Post#34 » by tooler » Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:54 pm
My concern with Noel is that when something historic happens on these 76ers teams, like Noel's defensive numbers, it may be wise to put it in context with the historically unique construction of their team. I'm not going to use the D word, but I think it's safe to say the roster has been built to give individual players -- some of them unsung -- an unprecedented opportunity to play with a long leash. They play hard as hell and have pretty good team defensive efficiency -- a lot better than my awful team -- so I'm not saying they're all running amok. But it's possible this experiment may lead to some statistical outliers on offense and defense.
We're all well aware of how easy it is to pump offensive counting stats on a bad team. We all know there are advanced metrics that see right through that type of thing. But the advanced metrics for defense aren't quite as refined, are they? I personally don't know a lot about them, so I'm asking. If the metrics rely heavily on blocks, steals, and rebounds, we know there are ways to boost those stats to the detriment of sound team defensive principles.
Based on what I've read, the adjusted +/- metrics try to factor out these problems. They have serious problems of their own, which I've seen with my own eyes by watching them change over the course of a year with little rhyme or reason.
There's also the eye test. I haven't watched every game the 76ers played, but I made sure to watch Noel carefully in his game against the Magic just after the ASB. After hearing all the hype and the numbers, I genuinely expected him to set a career high in blocks with all the soft stuff our players put up at the rim. I expected to be embarrassed for my team. I was surprised to see they turned him around quite a bit with nifty passing in the paint, and Vucevic was able to seal him off repeatedly for offensive rebounds and post position.
That was just one game. Maybe Noel had a bad night -- he's a rookie after all -- or the Magic played unusually well. However, I took a peek in the 76ers forum that night and saw some fans wonder out loud whether his defensive stats were just empty numbers. Every fanbase has doubts after a bad game. But we typically only see the good news here on the General Board so it makes me wonder what's real.
I'm sure he has the tools. Not every player can generate blocks and steals that well even if they threw caution to the wind. He'll be a fine player. But are we so sure his impact on defense this season is any more reliable than offensive counting stats? Someone will have to convince me that advanced defensive metrics are sound and that RPM isn't, since he shows poorly by that metric. (I'm ready to believe that one's bogus at least.)
Lay it on me!
(MY GOODNESS 
)
