Playoff Predictions and Sample Size

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simon24
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#21 » by simon24 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:57 am

jinxed wrote:We are now about 10% done with the season and the NBA standings are looking much different than what any of us expected preseason. Lakers in the playoffs? Clips and Hornets in first place? Celtics out of the playoff race?

Is this a case of small sample size theater, or is 10% of the season a large enough sample to get a decent prediction? To test this out I looked at the standings on this date last year.

The first number before the team name is their standing on Nov 11, 2015. The second number after their team name is where they finished to end the RS.

East
1. Cavs (1)
2. Raps (2)
3. Hawks (4)
4. Heat (3)
5. Hornets (6)
6. Celtics (5)
7. Pacers (7)
8. Detroit (8)

West

1. GSW (1)
2. Spurs (2)
3. OKC (3)
4. Clips (4)
5. Blazers (5)
6. Mavs (6)
7. Grizzlies (7)
8. Rockets (8)

As you can see, by Nov 11th of last year, the standings were already almost a flawless match of where things would end up by the end of the season. The only deviation is that 4 way tie we had last year between the 3-6 seeds in the east. The WC played out perfectly.

It seems that 10% of the season is a large enough sample to get a good feel for how things will end up at the end of April. Given this, are you a believer that we we have today is going to be representative of what things will look like at the end of this year? If not, what changes do you see? Which team will fall out of the race? Which team will move up on the standings.


East

Raptors - 3rd.
Hawks - 4th.
Heat - lottery bound
Hornets - 5th.
Celtics - 2nd. When Horford returns, they'll take off.
Pacers - 6th
Pistons - 7th
Bulls - 8th

West
Spurs - 3rd
OKC - no playoffs
LAC - 2nd
POR - 5th
DAL - lottery bound
MEM - 7th
HOU - 6th
UTAH - 4th
DEN - 8th
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#22 » by baldur » Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:43 am

Prokorov wrote:
baldur wrote:wow. last year must have been an exception i suppose. it was almost exact standing as the end of the regular season.



last year you had clear tanking teams and clear awful teams. so playoff teams were more clear.

this year... its muddled and alot of those bad tanking teams are in the stage were they are trying to win games.

this year's trade class is absolutely much better than the 2016. so what changed? shouldn't some of the teams tank this year rather than the last year?
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#23 » by GeorgeMarcus » Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:12 am

East
1. Cavs
2. Raptors
3. Hawks
4. Bulls
5. Celtics
6. Pacers
7. Hornets
8. Pistons

West
1. Warriors
2. Clippers
3. Spurs
4. Thunder
5. Rockets
6. Jazz
7. Blazers
8. T-Wolves

I guess my boldest prediction, which really isn't that bold, would be the Pacers. Their revamped starting 5 will need time to develop familiarity with one another.

Almost put down the Grizz at #8 but they really haven't impressed me. Maybe that will change after Parsons shakes off the rust?
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#24 » by Madhouse » Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:25 pm

1 Cle
2 Tor
3 Atl
4 Cha
5 Bos
6 Chi
7 Mil
8 Ind

1 Gs
2 Lac
3 Sas
4 Por
5 Hou
6 Uta
7 Okc
8 Lal
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#25 » by Winter » Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:36 pm

baldur wrote:this year's trade class is absolutely much better than the 2016. so what changed? shouldn't some of the teams tank this year rather than the last year?


The preseason so called expert predicted bottom team - Nets has no reason to tank, their pick belongs to Boston. 76er just get 1 top 1 pick and one major players be able to come back, so they have no reason to tank, Lakers, well they finally get Kobe retired, and need to figure out what they are looking, and so far, not that bad. So for the 1st 10 games, none is really look at the season and think tank.

After 10 games, I think Pelicans, Mavericks, Sun, prob will think about it, but Mav has coach that will not try to tank. Wizard, 76er prob think they still can work and may have chance to show progress although I think they should tank hard. Heat I don't know, I doubt Riley will do that. Since none is clearly in any tank process yet, it probably not in any hurry to do that.

Draft class maybe stronger than 16, but hard to say if there is any player or two players stand out head and shoulder above others, also reduce the need to be in top 1 or top 2.
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#26 » by Mister Ze » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:53 pm

Looks like GS vs Spurs in the WCF with Raps and Cavs in the ECF.
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Re: Playoff Predictions and Sample Size 

Post#27 » by Pachinko_ » Tue Nov 15, 2016 8:12 am

Ι always thought that 82 games is way too many and purely revenue raising, it makes no sense from a championship perspective

But hey, more basketball, I'm not complaining

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