2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[Impuniti]

Lebron's MVP chances after January

[Edrees]

Lebron's MVP chances after January

Rockets have even more wins than the cavs and one less loss, he doesn't even have a record advantage over Harden anymore.

[Leon Black]

MVP - Harden
6th Man - Gordon
COY - D'Antoni

Me - Homer

[cdubbz]

I feel this year's MVP will have the lowest number of MVP votes due to the number of MVP candidates. Harden, Russ, KD, Isiah Thomas, Curry, Lebron, Kawhi, Kyrie, can all get an MVP vote

[Triples333]

I feel this year's MVP will have the lowest number of MVP votes due to the number of MVP candidates. Harden, Russ, KD, Isiah Thomas, Curry, Lebron, Kawhi, Kyrie, can all get an MVP vote

Kyrie? No.

Draymond and Embiid maybe.

But to the underlying point agreed.

[PeptoKlepto]

MVP - Harden
6th Man - Gordon
COY - D'Antoni

Me - Homer

Honestly - that's not even being much of a homer. All three have a strong chance at all of those respective awards.

[bmurph128]

Lebron's MVP chances after January

Rockets have even more wins than the cavs and one less loss, he doesn't even have a record advantage over Harden anymore.

I think you guys are looking at this the wrong way. For almost the entire month he didn't have the record advantage over Harden. The Rockets thus far have played a bit over their heads, while the Cavs have played awful - and yet they almost have the same record.

I'm not saying LeBron will or will not win MVP over Harden, but when the Cavs turn it up the 2nd half of the season as we move toward the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Julian_U2]

He is averaging a triple double (!!!!) and leading the league in points. All this with a mediocre team. There is no way Russell Westbrook does not deserve to be the most valuable player if OKC make the playoffs.

I also think the league will give Kevin Durant the award.

[michaelm]

He is averaging a triple double (!!!!) and leading the league in points. All this with a mediocre team. There is no way Russell Westbrook does not deserve to be the most valuable player if OKC make the playoffs.

I also think the league will give Kevin Durant the award.

It will go to whoever has the best narrative, not the player who has actually added most value to his team, nor to the player who is actually the best player in the NBA, which has previously been LeBron in many more years than he was awarded MVP status.

As has been said by others, Durant's narrative is not particularly compelling this year, and I doubt he and even more so Curry and LeBron care about being MVP this year anyway. It should go to Westbrook or possibly Harden although imo all 3 of LeBron (when he chooses to switch it on at least), Durant and Curry have been and remain better players ultimately than Westbrook or Harden.

[laika]

Speaking of actual value, here are the stats that are most important.

Earlier I was referring to On/Off ratings, but called it Net rating because 82games calls it Net on their site. It's a little confusing because NBA.com calls Oncourt "+/-" and Team Offensive Rating minus Team Defensive Rating "NetRtg". As far as I know, no site shows current On/Off numbers. You have to compile them. Here are the current leaders-

-------------------Min----On---Off----On/Off
Paul-------------1110---15.5---6.8----22.3
Curry-----------1570---19.0--+0.5----18.5
Love------------1290---11.3---4.3----15.7
Beal-------------1470----7.0---8.4----15.4
Westbrook----1670-----5.1--10.2---15.3
Lou William---1220----1.1--14.2----15.3
James----------1650----8.5---5.9----14.4
P Patterson--1030---12.9---1.3----14.2
Embiid-----------790----4.1---9.9----14.0
Lowry----------1760----8.6---6.6----15.2
Adams----------1390----5.9---6.7----13.6
Crowder-------1300----7.6---4.0----13.6
Millsap---------1550----4.3---9.1----13.4
Jokic-----------1070----5.7---6.8----12.5
Reddick--------1260----9.---2.8----12.3
Hardaway-----1090----6.3---6.0----12.3
Gortat---------1630----5.1---7.1----12.2
Wall-------------1630----5.1---7.1----12.2
Zeller----------1020----8.3---3.7----12.0
Griffin-----------930---11.0---0.8----11.8

Harden--------1860----7.1--+1.6-----5.5
Leonard-------1450----8.2--+7.9-----0.3

[laika]

So lets talk about who is the MVP now that the actual performance numbers are posted rather than arbitrary box score stats.

Who is the best player on the best team?
That is obviously Curry. His Oncourt rating is ridiculous.

Which player does the most to make their team better?
Once again it is clearly Curry. He has easily the best On/Off, which is extremely difficult to do when it takes making your team historically great to do so. The only player that is close is Paul, but he won't have enough minutes to qualify for MVP.

Ok, so now that it is clear that Curry should be well ahead in the MVP race by the traditional questions, it's time to grasp at straws.

So maybe Curry has great numbers because he has a really weak bench and the other starters are awesome?
This is the only possible explanation left. If you fail to prove this assertion then Curry is indisputably the MVP.
It's clear that the Warriors bench isn't really weak. They are about average. Curry is getting his numbers from making his team insanely great.
But maybe it's the other starters and Curry isn't doing much?
If this were true, then the top On/Off list would be dominated by the other Warrior starters. Notice the conspicuous absence of any other Warrior in the top 20. No one believes this, but the Warriors fall apart when Curry isn't playing.

Sure, the Warriors have other good players on their team. But based on the current numbers Curry is the actual MVP and it isn't even that close.

[Bergmaniac]

Month by Month.

Westbrook's assist numbers have dropped from about 11 to 10 and now to 9 in January.

9.5 assists per game in January is pretty remarkable given the schedule and the shooting slump of some of his teammates which play the most minutes with him. During that month Roberson shot 16.2% from 3 and Sabonis shot 21.2%.

[Hero]

He is averaging a triple double (!!!!) and leading the league in points. All this with a mediocre team. There is no way Russell Westbrook does not deserve to be the most valuable player if OKC make the playoffs.

I also think the league will give Kevin Durant the award.

That isn't how the award is voted on.
If it was just by stats then LBJ/Dwight would have won it over Rose in 2011.

[Impuniti]

Curry is up to +19 now?





Jesus Christ, what is the highest + on court in NBA history? That is probably up there.

[mihail_petkov]

Curry already won 2 MVPs in a row. His numbers also are not sexy as his opponents - Durant, Harden and Westbrook. He doesn't have any chance to win the MVP but it's obviously that he and LeBron are the best players in NBA, having most impact. We can really hope for one healthy final between these two teams.

[PeptoKlepto]

Curry needs to be in everyone's top 3. He's easily one of the most valuable players in the NBA and is leading a historical team/offense. I don't care who his teammates are.

Even Durant just came out and said Curry is the engine behind the whole thing.

[ken6199]

Laika, you made a great post by compiling the on-off. Kudos for that.

Then you started using words like 'clear', 'way ahead', 'it's not even close'. Often these are the words that will turn a great post into a mediocre one because they hurt the credibility of a stance, if not used properly.

[HurricaneKid]

Speaking of actual value, here are the stats that are most important.

Earlier I was referring to On/Off ratings, but called it Net rating because 82games calls it Net on their site. It's a little confusing because NBA.com calls Oncourt "+/-" and Team Offensive Rating minus Team Defensive Rating "NetRtg". As far as I know, no site shows current On/Off numbers. You have to compile them. Here are the current leaders-

-------------------Min----On---Off----On/Off
Paul-------------1110---15.5---6.8----22.3
Curry-----------1570---19.0--+0.5----18.5
Love------------1290---11.3---4.3----15.7
Beal-------------1470----7.0---8.4----15.4
Westbrook----1670-----5.1--10.2---15.3
Lou William---1220----1.1--14.2----15.3
James----------1650----8.5---5.9----14.4
P Patterson--1030---12.9---1.3----14.2
Embiid-----------790----4.1---9.9----14.0
Lowry----------1760----8.6---6.6----15.2
Adams----------1390----5.9---6.7----13.6
Crowder-------1300----7.6---4.0----13.6
Millsap---------1550----4.3---9.1----13.4
Jokic-----------1070----5.7---6.8----12.5
Reddick--------1260----9.---2.8----12.3
Hardaway-----1090----6.3---6.0----12.3
Gortat---------1630----5.1---7.1----12.2
Wall-------------1630----5.1---7.1----12.2
Zeller----------1020----8.3---3.7----12.0
Griffin-----------930---11.0---0.8----11.8

Harden--------1860----7.1--+1.6-----5.5
Leonard-------1450----8.2--+7.9-----0.3

I don't know where you are compiling these from but they are readily available and adjusted for pace in Basketball Reference on/off.

Here is a link to Curry's who is +17.5/100 poss on, +2.8/100 off for a net rtg of +14.7/100 poss.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01/on-off/2017

Almost all of these are well off BBRef

[PeptoKlepto]

Exactly why Curry should be in the top-3:

Because his very presence warps and bends defenses in ways never seen before on an NBA court, the Warriors play out of their minds when he’s on the floor. With Curry off the floor, they have a respectable +3.0 net rating. When Curry is on the floor, however, the Warriors have a +16.8 net rating, yielding an on/off split of 13.8 points per 100 possessions. Considering the fact that the Warriors have three of the best 10 and four of the best 20 players in the NBA, it’s remarkable that any one player can produce such a monstrous swing in production.

While Durant is certainly the missing piece, his output is also at its best when he shares the floor with Curry. When Durant plays without Curry, the Warriors outscore their opponents by just 1.1 points per 100 possessions. When Curry plays sans Durant, the Warriors outscore their opponents by 9.8 points. However, when the duo play together, the Warriors outscore their opponents by a remarkable 21.1 points per 100 possessions.

He's the most valuable player on a historically great team.

[laika]

Curry is up to +19 now?


Jesus Christ, what is the highest + on court in NBA history? That is probably up there.

It's pretty likely. The Warriors are beating the best differential ever by a point. To get a higher Oncourt than 19 you would need to be on a historically great team with a truly awful bench.