The Vertical: 2019 Warriors Salary Cap + Luxury Tax Could Equal $300 Million

[The Penguin]

After they rip off a few titles I could see KD going to Washington or Steph going to Charlotte, especially if Lebron hits a wall and the East opens up.

[improper]

NBA contracts are only 4-5 years. Scheduling out your roster 4+ years from now is like asking what the weather forecast is for Jan 2018.

Not really true at all. Sure, the average NBA contract is about four years long, but there are obviously guys on every team's roster that they are interested in keeping around, and figuring out what those guys will be commanding in salary when their current contracts are up several years down the line is an important part of building a team.

For example, the Warriors know with absolute certainty that Curry, Thompson, Durant, and Green will all be seeking the maximum amount of money they can make when their current contracts are up, and if the Warriors aren't willing to pay it, someone else will be.

[NBAfan3024]

Livingston is likely gone but iggy I imagine returns

[HurricaneKid]

NBA contracts are only 4-5 years. Scheduling out your roster 4+ years from now is like asking what the weather forecast is for Jan 2018.

Not really true at all. Sure, the average NBA contract is about four years long, but there are obviously guys on every team's roster that they are interested in keeping around, and figuring out what those guys will be commanding in salary when their current contracts are up several years down the line is an important part of building a team.

For example, the Warriors know with absolute certainty that Curry, Thompson, Durant, and Green will all be seeking the maximum amount of money they can make when their current contracts are up, and if the Warriors aren't willing to pay it, someone else will be.

NO. The average NBA contract is not 4 years. THE MAXIMUM length contract is 4 years with a 5th in certain situations when signing your own players. No more than 1/3 of the deals in the league are 4+ year deals.

[baller16]

Klay is going to be the odd man out

[Andre Roberstan]

NBA contracts are only 4-5 years. Scheduling out your roster 4+ years from now is like asking what the weather forecast is for Jan 2018.

Why do you keep saying 4 years when the thread is about 2019?

You know when Washington started making cap space for Durant? You know when the Spurs started making cap space for the summer they signed Aldridge? This is what teams do.

http://www.expressnews.com/sports/spurs/article/Coveted-free-agent-Aldridge-chooses-Spurs-6366364.php

That's one example. Give me 5 minutes with Google and I can turn up several more. That's their job.

Livingston is gone. But its entirely likely Iggy will be extended this offseason and they will be at the apron (read: play in the NBA Finals for the 4th straight year without being in the Lux Tax once). After two more seasons, almost certainly remaining in the Finals they would have some decisions to make, but will have full Bird rights on them to make the choice. They would likely have been to 6 straight Finals at that point and have a dynasty the likes we have not seen before and they will have more revenues than they would know what to do with.

Won't be an extension, since he's not under contract after the playoffs. Would be a new contract. They've had some incredible luck with timing of rookie contracts (yes, they're also an excellent front office, championship teams have both luck and skill).

And they have Bird rights, yeah. And they'll have a lot of money. But the first big decisions they'll make start this offseason: Iggy and Livingston. Those don't affect too much right now, but they've been key role players. Livingston probably walks, Iggy stays. OK.

Then in 2018, McCaw hits RFA. And you know someone is going to put a painful offer sheet on him—the kid is good, and someone's going to do it just to get Bob Myers's goat. Neil Olshey has made a career out of doing that to teams to varying degrees of success in Portland, and he's not the only one—the Nets will probably still be awash with cap space too, and McCaw is exactly the type of player Sean Marks wants.

It's also when Klay can start talking extension, which wouldn't kick in till 2019—but he's going to get paid too.

I'd honestly worry more about McCaw hitting RFA while the Nets still probably have cap space and Iggy continues to age than anything else. They can keep him, but it's going to hurt. A lot. Curry/Klay/KD/Dray/McCaw is still an excellent core, but you've got 10 roster spots to fill out with minimums and the taxpayer MLE forever now.

It sounds more like people wanting the absurd talent monopoly disbanded and are trying to figure out how long it will be. A long damn time.

And yeah, I won't lie. I wanted that team buried a year and a half ago. Not hiding my bias here. But numbers are numbers.

[RightToCensor]

You can't price out a dynasty when they're printing money at the gate, selling out every game, and getting you deep into the playoffs every year.

[INKtastic]

Luckily there will be ads on jerseys by then and they're the most watched team in the NBA

Jersey ads will bring in about $10 million/year and jersey ad revenues are included in cap projections.

[HurricaneKid]

NBA contracts are only 4-5 years. Scheduling out your roster 4+ years from now is like asking what the weather forecast is for Jan 2018.

Why do you keep saying 4 years when the thread is about 2019?

You know when Washington started making cap space for Durant? You know when the Spurs started making cap space for the summer they signed Aldridge? This is what teams do.

http://www.expressnews.com/sports/spurs/article/Coveted-free-agent-Aldridge-chooses-Spurs-6366364.php

That's one example. Give me 5 minutes with Google and I can turn up several more. That's their job.

Livingston is gone. But its entirely likely Iggy will be extended this offseason and they will be at the apron (read: play in the NBA Finals for the 4th straight year without being in the Lux Tax once). After two more seasons, almost certainly remaining in the Finals they would have some decisions to make, but will have full Bird rights on them to make the choice. They would likely have been to 6 straight Finals at that point and have a dynasty the likes we have not seen before and they will have more revenues than they would know what to do with.

Won't be an extension, since he's not under contract after the playoffs. Would be a new contract. They've had some incredible luck with timing of rookie contracts (yes, they're also an excellent front office, championship teams have both luck and skill).

And they have Bird rights, yeah. And they'll have a lot of money. But the first big decisions they'll make start this offseason: Iggy and Livingston. Those don't affect too much right now, but they've been key role players. Livingston probably walks, Iggy stays. OK.

Then in 2018, McCaw hits RFA. And you know someone is going to put a painful offer sheet on him—the kid is good, and someone's going to do it just to get Bob Myers's goat. Neil Olshey has made a career out of doing that to teams to varying degrees of success in Portland, and he's not the only one—the Nets will probably still be awash with cap space too, and McCaw is exactly the type of player Sean Marks wants.

It's also when Klay can start talking extension, which wouldn't kick in till 2019—but he's going to get paid too.

I'd honestly worry more about McCaw hitting RFA while the Nets still probably have cap space and Iggy continues to age than anything else. They can keep him, but it's going to hurt. A lot. Curry/Klay/KD/Dray/McCaw is still an excellent core, but you've got 10 roster spots to fill out with minimums and the taxpayer MLE forever now.

It sounds more like people wanting the absurd talent monopoly disbanded and are trying to figure out how long it will be. A long damn time.

And yeah, I won't lie. I wanted that team buried a year and a half ago. Not hiding my bias here. But numbers are numbers.

Because we are still in the 2016-17 season and you are talking about the 2019-20 season.

And while McCaw has shown flashes, I'm not as concerned about a 2nd round rookie who was a -1.7BPM this year. As long as KD/Curry/Dray/Klay are together they will be able to find ring chasers on the cheap to fill in the gaps. And those guys are together for the next three Finals at a minimum. After that who knows. I just think it is a bit premature to start planning that far out. I mean if the Cavs destroy them and KD loses his **** in the Finals who knows if they are even together next year. Planning for a Klay FA after 3 more Finals is hardly the only concern. And if Klay, who will have 80M in career earnings, is demanding a max offer in 3 years it likely means things have gone very well for the Warriors over the last 5 years.

[INKtastic]

NBA contracts are only 4-5 years. Scheduling out your roster 4+ years from now is like asking what the weather forecast is for Jan 2018.

Why do you keep saying 4 years when the thread is about 2019?

You know when Washington started making cap space for Durant? You know when the Spurs started making cap space for the summer they signed Aldridge? This is what teams do.

http://www.expressnews.com/sports/spurs/article/Coveted-free-agent-Aldridge-chooses-Spurs-6366364.php

That's one example. Give me 5 minutes with Google and I can turn up several more. That's their job.

Livingston is gone. But its entirely likely Iggy will be extended this offseason and they will be at the apron (read: play in the NBA Finals for the 4th straight year without being in the Lux Tax once). After two more seasons, almost certainly remaining in the Finals they would have some decisions to make, but will have full Bird rights on them to make the choice. They would likely have been to 6 straight Finals at that point and have a dynasty the likes we have not seen before and they will have more revenues than they would know what to do with.

Won't be an extension, since he's not under contract after the playoffs. Would be a new contract. They've had some incredible luck with timing of rookie contracts (yes, they're also an excellent front office, championship teams have both luck and skill).

And they have Bird rights, yeah. And they'll have a lot of money. But the first big decisions they'll make start this offseason: Iggy and Livingston. Those don't affect too much right now, but they've been key role players. Livingston probably walks, Iggy stays. OK.

Then in 2018, McCaw hits RFA. And you know someone is going to put a painful offer sheet on him—the kid is good, and someone's going to do it just to get Bob Myers's goat. Neil Olshey has made a career out of doing that to teams to varying degrees of success in Portland, and he's not the only one—the Nets will probably still be awash with cap space too, and McCaw is exactly the type of player Sean Marks wants.

It's also when Klay can start talking extension, which wouldn't kick in till 2019—but he's going to get paid too.

I'd honestly worry more about McCaw hitting RFA while the Nets still probably have cap space and Iggy continues to age than anything else. They can keep him, but it's going to hurt. A lot. Curry/Klay/KD/Dray/McCaw is still an excellent core, but you've got 10 roster spots to fill out with minimums and the taxpayer MLE forever now.

It sounds more like people wanting the absurd talent monopoly disbanded and are trying to figure out how long it will be. A long damn time.

And yeah, I won't lie. I wanted that team buried a year and a half ago. Not hiding my bias here. But numbers are numbers.

Because we are still in the 2016-17 season and you are talking about the 2019-20 season.

And while McCaw has shown flashes, I'm not as concerned about a 2nd round rookie who was a -1.7BPM this year. As long as KD/Curry/Dray/Klay are together they will be able to find ring chasers on the cheap to fill in the gaps. And those guys are together for the next three Finals at a minimum. After that who knows. I just think it is a bit premature to start planning that far out. I mean if the Cavs destroy them and KD loses his **** in the Finals who knows if they are even together next year. Planning for a Klay FA after 3 more Finals is hardly the only concern. And if Klay, who will have 80M in career earnings, is demanding a max offer in 3 years it likely means things have gone very well for the Warriors over the last 5 years.

They have to make decisions within the next 2 years. Starting with this summer. To sign Durant and Curry both to the max, they have to renounce their bird rights to players.

Cavs payroll + luxury tax last year was about $170 million and the team lost $40 million. They are in the same ball park again this year.

Dan Gilbert is worth $5.8 billion. Joe Lacob is worth $400 million.

[Andre Roberstan]

Because we are still in the 2016-17 season and you are talking about the 2019-20 season.

And while McCaw has shown flashes, I'm not as concerned about a 2nd round rookie who was a -1.7BPM this year. As long as KD/Curry/Dray/Klay are together they will be able to find ring chasers on the cheap to fill in the gaps. And those guys are together for the next three Finals at a minimum. After that who knows. I just think it is a bit premature to start planning that far out. I mean if the Cavs destroy them and KD loses his **** in the Finals who knows if they are even together next year. Planning for a Klay FA after 3 more Finals is hardly the only concern. And if Klay, who will have 80M in career earnings, is demanding a max offer in 3 years it likely means things have gone very well for the Warriors over the last 5 years.

We're talking about the time period from the 2017 offseason through the 2019 offseason...saying it's 2016–17 through 2019–20 is playing semantics. C'mon.

I don't doubt they can get ring chasers. I doubt they can fill out a ring-chaser playoff rotation long-term with 10 minimum guys and a mini MLE guy, especially if possible changes in the buyout market happen (this would also hurt the Cavs—it might hurt the Cavs more).

Never said Klay is the only concern, or that other stuff might not happen. But if they don't have a plan at all Bob Myers is an idiot. And I really don't think he is.

Finally, if the Dubs don't offer Klay a max someone probably will. He can't create his own shot, but he could be a primary scorer on another team if he had another shot creator playing alongside him. The Magic did some really interesting stuff with a guy who was primarily off-ball with Afflalo several years ago—Klay's a much, much better player, and someone will pay him.

If you're planning for the future, you plan with the likelihood that all 4 of your core guys are getting the absolute maximum salary that they can get. The NBPA has kind of frowned on guys not taking their max if they can get it (there was some pressure behind the scenes on Bron when he went back to CLE).

Nothing is certain, no. But walking into the next several seasons without a plan is not something the Dubs would do, regardless of what variables are still up in the air.

[HurricaneKid]

Why do you keep saying 4 years when the thread is about 2019?

You know when Washington started making cap space for Durant? You know when the Spurs started making cap space for the summer they signed Aldridge? This is what teams do.

http://www.expressnews.com/sports/spurs/article/Coveted-free-agent-Aldridge-chooses-Spurs-6366364.php

That's one example. Give me 5 minutes with Google and I can turn up several more. That's their job.



Won't be an extension, since he's not under contract after the playoffs. Would be a new contract. They've had some incredible luck with timing of rookie contracts (yes, they're also an excellent front office, championship teams have both luck and skill).

And they have Bird rights, yeah. And they'll have a lot of money. But the first big decisions they'll make start this offseason: Iggy and Livingston. Those don't affect too much right now, but they've been key role players. Livingston probably walks, Iggy stays. OK.

Then in 2018, McCaw hits RFA. And you know someone is going to put a painful offer sheet on him—the kid is good, and someone's going to do it just to get Bob Myers's goat. Neil Olshey has made a career out of doing that to teams to varying degrees of success in Portland, and he's not the only one—the Nets will probably still be awash with cap space too, and McCaw is exactly the type of player Sean Marks wants.

It's also when Klay can start talking extension, which wouldn't kick in till 2019—but he's going to get paid too.

I'd honestly worry more about McCaw hitting RFA while the Nets still probably have cap space and Iggy continues to age than anything else. They can keep him, but it's going to hurt. A lot. Curry/Klay/KD/Dray/McCaw is still an excellent core, but you've got 10 roster spots to fill out with minimums and the taxpayer MLE forever now.




And yeah, I won't lie. I wanted that team buried a year and a half ago. Not hiding my bias here. But numbers are numbers.

Because we are still in the 2016-17 season and you are talking about the 2019-20 season.

And while McCaw has shown flashes, I'm not as concerned about a 2nd round rookie who was a -1.7BPM this year. As long as KD/Curry/Dray/Klay are together they will be able to find ring chasers on the cheap to fill in the gaps. And those guys are together for the next three Finals at a minimum. After that who knows. I just think it is a bit premature to start planning that far out. I mean if the Cavs destroy them and KD loses his **** in the Finals who knows if they are even together next year. Planning for a Klay FA after 3 more Finals is hardly the only concern. And if Klay, who will have 80M in career earnings, is demanding a max offer in 3 years it likely means things have gone very well for the Warriors over the last 5 years.

They have to make decisions within the next 2 years. Starting with this summer. To sign Durant and Curry both to the max, they have to renounce their bird rights to players.

Cavs payroll + luxury tax last year was about $170 million and the team lost $40 million. They are in the same ball park again this year.

Dan Gilbert is worth $5.8 billion. Joe Lacob is worth $400 million.

KD can sign a 32M 1+1 and then sign a max deal next offseason and they can keep Iggy (depending on what he wants/salary demands). They would need to rescind Zaza and Livingston. Oh well. Then Zaza/West/Barnes/McGee can decide if they want to stick around on a min/room exc deal. If they don't all re-sign, McCaw will be ready for more min next year anyhow. They will be better next year than this year.

And the Warriors are worth ~3B. Whoever told you Lacob was worth peanuts was wrong. He bought the team for 450M. The equity for the Warriors alone is substantially higher than that and EASILY accessed.

https://www.forbes.com/teams/golden-state-warriors/
Shows >300M a year in revenues. And that is before they open their new arena.

If you actually believe the Cavs are losing 40M/ you need to look into that a little more. I stare at P&Ls all day. You can make paper say a lot of things that just aren't so. Carrying a 40M loss was merely a means to an end for Gilbert.

[Danny11]

Luckily there will be ads on jerseys by then and they're the most watched team in the NBA

Jersey ads will bring in about $10 million/year and jersey ad revenues are included in cap projections.

Oh, I didn't realize the deals (that haven't even been made yet) have been publicized. Could you show me these docs? Or are you referring to the baseless speculation of an article regarding the revenue of the tiny Kia patch they are demoing on every team?

[Ganji]

After they rip off a few titles I could see KD going to Washington or Steph going to Charlotte, especially if Lebron hits a wall and the East opens up.

I can see Curry going back home, but I don't see KD going to Washington, it's just not a basketball city, and fans are not there. They only have a team, because you have a white house and a senate there. If Kd will go anywhere, it will be back to OKC imo, also Harden might join him.

[M4P]

Why do you keep saying 4 years when the thread is about 2019?

You know when Washington started making cap space for Durant? You know when the Spurs started making cap space for the summer they signed Aldridge? This is what teams do.

http://www.expressnews.com/sports/spurs/article/Coveted-free-agent-Aldridge-chooses-Spurs-6366364.php

That's one example. Give me 5 minutes with Google and I can turn up several more. That's their job.



Won't be an extension, since he's not under contract after the playoffs. Would be a new contract. They've had some incredible luck with timing of rookie contracts (yes, they're also an excellent front office, championship teams have both luck and skill).

And they have Bird rights, yeah. And they'll have a lot of money. But the first big decisions they'll make start this offseason: Iggy and Livingston. Those don't affect too much right now, but they've been key role players. Livingston probably walks, Iggy stays. OK.

Then in 2018, McCaw hits RFA. And you know someone is going to put a painful offer sheet on him—the kid is good, and someone's going to do it just to get Bob Myers's goat. Neil Olshey has made a career out of doing that to teams to varying degrees of success in Portland, and he's not the only one—the Nets will probably still be awash with cap space too, and McCaw is exactly the type of player Sean Marks wants.

It's also when Klay can start talking extension, which wouldn't kick in till 2019—but he's going to get paid too.

I'd honestly worry more about McCaw hitting RFA while the Nets still probably have cap space and Iggy continues to age than anything else. They can keep him, but it's going to hurt. A lot. Curry/Klay/KD/Dray/McCaw is still an excellent core, but you've got 10 roster spots to fill out with minimums and the taxpayer MLE forever now.




And yeah, I won't lie. I wanted that team buried a year and a half ago. Not hiding my bias here. But numbers are numbers.

Because we are still in the 2016-17 season and you are talking about the 2019-20 season.

And while McCaw has shown flashes, I'm not as concerned about a 2nd round rookie who was a -1.7BPM this year. As long as KD/Curry/Dray/Klay are together they will be able to find ring chasers on the cheap to fill in the gaps. And those guys are together for the next three Finals at a minimum. After that who knows. I just think it is a bit premature to start planning that far out. I mean if the Cavs destroy them and KD loses his **** in the Finals who knows if they are even together next year. Planning for a Klay FA after 3 more Finals is hardly the only concern. And if Klay, who will have 80M in career earnings, is demanding a max offer in 3 years it likely means things have gone very well for the Warriors over the last 5 years.

They have to make decisions within the next 2 years. Starting with this summer. To sign Durant and Curry both to the max, they have to renounce their bird rights to players.

Cavs payroll + luxury tax last year was about $170 million and the team lost $40 million. They are in the same ball park again this year.

Dan Gilbert is worth $5.8 billion. Joe Lacob is worth $400 million.

owners aren't losing money, and I believe Lacob is apart of an ownership group in Silicon Valley. Sure some teams might be at a loss in some areas of operation, but if you factor in the sponsorship, tv deals, and general brand worth every team comes out on top. Teams crying about losing money is honestly just misdirection. But anyway, if it was just Lacob absorbing costs there would be no way he'd be able to open a stadium in downtown/Mission Bay SF, home of one of the priciest real estate in the world

[Andre Roberstan]

After they rip off a few titles I could see KD going to Washington or Steph going to Charlotte, especially if Lebron hits a wall and the East opens up.

I can see Curry going back home, but I don't see KD going to Washington, it's just not a basketball city, and fans are not there. They only have a team, because you have a white house and a senate there. If Kd will go anywhere, it will be back to OKC imo, also Harden might join him.

Neither of those guys is coming back here. At least not until they're old and washed up. Salary alone makes it impractical.

Honestly I don't want Durant back anyway, and that's the sentiment of most of the fan base from what I can tell.

[165bows]

This is absurd.

Dray is signed THROUGH 2020. Klay is signed through 2019. Projecting the cap for 4 years from now is idiotic. To have those two signed to deals for 4 and 3 years respectively at their outstanding cap #s is outstanding for the Dubs. To pretend this is all going to fall down is comical. KD and Steph will sign this offseason and they will have the best core ever tied up for years to come at salaries the entire league would kill for. Assuming max salary extensions for guys who are under contract for the next 4 seasons is downright stupid.

Projecting the cap for 4 years from now is actually kind of what front offices try to do. And last I checked this year was 2017, which is 2 less than 2019.

It's entirely reasonable to realize that Klay can start working on an extension next offseason and McCaw's contract expires at the same time. Right after Curry and Durant get the super max. The full impact might not hit till the 2019 offseason, but it's not insane to have the discussion.

Klay is eligible for an $8-9M bump in salary 13 months from now, if he was on a team with cap space to renegotiate and extend.

Lotta factors in play.

[Vonneguts]

If you would need to move Klay for a cheaper player this offseason, what deal would you try to do?

[INKtastic]

Luckily there will be ads on jerseys by then and they're the most watched team in the NBA

Jersey ads will bring in about $10 million/year and jersey ad revenues are included in cap projections.

Oh, I didn't realize the deals (that haven't even been made yet) have been publicized. Could you show me these docs? Or are you referring to the baseless speculation of an article regarding the revenue of the tiny Kia patch they are demoing on every team?

on the Cavs goodyear deal

Read on Twitter

?

[INKtastic]

Because we are still in the 2016-17 season and you are talking about the 2019-20 season.

And while McCaw has shown flashes, I'm not as concerned about a 2nd round rookie who was a -1.7BPM this year. As long as KD/Curry/Dray/Klay are together they will be able to find ring chasers on the cheap to fill in the gaps. And those guys are together for the next three Finals at a minimum. After that who knows. I just think it is a bit premature to start planning that far out. I mean if the Cavs destroy them and KD loses his **** in the Finals who knows if they are even together next year. Planning for a Klay FA after 3 more Finals is hardly the only concern. And if Klay, who will have 80M in career earnings, is demanding a max offer in 3 years it likely means things have gone very well for the Warriors over the last 5 years.

They have to make decisions within the next 2 years. Starting with this summer. To sign Durant and Curry both to the max, they have to renounce their bird rights to players.

Cavs payroll + luxury tax last year was about $170 million and the team lost $40 million. They are in the same ball park again this year.

Dan Gilbert is worth $5.8 billion. Joe Lacob is worth $400 million.

KD can sign a 32M 1+1 and then sign a max deal next offseason and they can keep Iggy (depending on what he wants/salary demands). They would need to rescind Zaza and Livingston. Oh well. Then Zaza/West/Barnes/McGee can decide if they want to stick around on a min/room exc deal. If they don't all re-sign, McCaw will be ready for more min next year anyhow. They will be better next year than this year.

And the Warriors are worth ~3B. Whoever told you Lacob was worth peanuts was wrong. He bought the team for 450M. The equity for the Warriors alone is substantially higher than that and EASILY accessed.

https://www.forbes.com/teams/golden-state-warriors/
Shows >300M a year in revenues. And that is before they open their new arena.

If you actually believe the Cavs are losing 40M/ you need to look into that a little more. I stare at P&Ls all day. You can make paper say a lot of things that just aren't so. Carrying a 40M loss was merely a means to an end for Gilbert.

Player salaries aren't their only expense. The same link shows operating income of $74.2 M on $111 million in player salary expenses. Are they really willing to turn a net positive of $74.2 million into a net loss of $100+ million by letting their player expenses + luxury tax jump from $111 million to $300 million?