The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[nurseryc]

This rookie discussion reminds me of when it was between Lebron and Carmelo. At that time it seemed they were neck and neck, re how it seems this year with Simmons and Mitchell. I feel like in a year or two it will be reminiscent of how it was with Lebron and Carmelo back then. Simmons is in a different league to this years rookies, he is a player that may be the one to match Lebron or even take the mantle, even Lebron thinks so and can already see that. We are all rediculously underrating Simmons simply because he set the bar so high from day 1. It’s laughable that he isn’t the favourite to win ROY anymore

[markjay]

This rookie discussion reminds me of when it was between Lebron and Carmelo. At that time it seemed they were neck and neck, re how it seems this year with Simmons and Mitchell. I feel like in a year or two it will be reminiscent of how it was with Lebron and Carmelo back then. Simmons is in a different league to this years rookies, he is a player that may be the one to match Lebron or even take the mantle, even Lebron thinks so and can already see that. We are all rediculously underrating Simmons simply because he set the bar so high from day 1. It’s laughable that he isn’t the favourite to win ROY anymore

I know you are comparing Simmons and Mitchell, but I think you are underestimating how good Lonzo may look a couple of years down the road. He started off shooting terribly in the beginning of the season and has improved greatly in that regard, while his already excellent defense has steadily gotten better. He is also (probably like Simmons) an amplifier, who shines around good players. If the Lakers pick up one to two good scorers in the off season, that will probably make Lonzo's game look even more impressive. Plus Lonzo is more than a year younger than Simmons and Mitchell.

I realize that the 76ers and Jazz would not do these trades either, but if I'm the Lakers, I would not trade Lonzo for either Simmons or Mitchell. I think he is that good.

This comment does not address this year's ROY award. Just how good these players may become a couple of years down the road.

[michaelm]

This rookie discussion reminds me of when it was between Lebron and Carmelo. At that time it seemed they were neck and neck, re how it seems this year with Simmons and Mitchell. I feel like in a year or two it will be reminiscent of how it was with Lebron and Carmelo back then. Simmons is in a different league to this years rookies, he is a player that may be the one to match Lebron or even take the mantle, even Lebron thinks so and can already see that. We are all rediculously underrating Simmons simply because he set the bar so high from day 1. It’s laughable that he isn’t the favourite to win ROY anymore

I know you are comparing Simmons and Mitchell, but I think you are underestimating how good Lonzo may look a couple of years down the road. He started off shooting terribly in the beginning of the season and has improved greatly in that regard, while his already excellent defense has steadily gotten better. He is also (probably like Simmons) an amplifier, who shines around good players. If the Lakers pick up one to two good scorers in the off season, that will probably make Lonzo's game look even more impressive. Plus Lonzo is more than a year younger than Simmons and Mitchell.

I realize that the 76ers and Jazz would not do these trades either, but if I'm the Lakers, I would not trade Lonzo for either Simmons or Mitchell. I think he is that good.

This comment does not address this year's ROY award. Just how good these players may become a couple of years down the road.

Lonzo seems to help the Lakers win, and also seems likely in the long term to have enough of a shot to keep other teams honest. With a better roster who knows how high he might go ?.

As an Australian NBA fan I very much hope Nursery C’s wishful thinking in regard to Simmons comes true, but I don’t think it is a given unfortunately, particularly if he never develops a shot. The turnovers also worry me. Perhaps the Sixers are 1 quality player away from it all gelling and hopefully Fultz is that player, but we will have to see I guess.

[LakersSoul]

First team all rookie:
Simmons
Mitchell
Tatum
Lauri
Kuzma

I think right now, more Lakers fans would say Ball is a better rookie than Kuzma. Lonzo has a bigger impact and has a much higher ceiling than Kuzma who is a stud and is improving his defense and passing.

Right now, in a re-draft, I dont see any serious Lakers fans passing on Lonzo with the 2nd pick over anyone including Mitchell who is offensively gifted and the best ROY candidate drafted from 2017 class. Mitchell is a star that Utah needed especially with Hayward moving to Boston. For the Lakers, they need someone like Lonzo leading the team with his pace, passing and defense.

I can see Magic adding 1-2 knockdown shooters, backup point, and a closer like PG over the summer and turn the Lakers into one of the top tier teams in the NBA. Lonzo is helping to build a championship team with his culture and pace. You know what else, the Lakers are so much more fun to watch with the transition game with Ball in the lineup its not even close.

[SmartWentCrazy]

First team all rookie:
Simmons
Mitchell
Tatum
Lauri
Kuzma

I think right now, more Lakers fans would say Ball is a better rookie than Kuzma. Lonzo has a bigger impact and has a much higher ceiling than Kuzma who is a stud and is improving his defense and passing.

Right now, in a re-draft, I dont see any serious Lakers fans passing on Lonzo with the 2nd pick over anyone including Mitchell who is offensively gifted and the best ROY candidate drafted from 2017 class. Mitchell is a star that Utah needed especially with Hayward moving to Boston. For the Lakers, they need someone like Lonzo leading the team with his pace, passing and defense.

I can see Magic adding 1-2 knockdown shooters, backup point, and a closer like PG over the summer and turn the Lakers into one of the top tier teams in the NBA. Lonzo is helping to build a championship team with his culture and pace. You know what else, the Lakers are so much more fun to watch with the transition game with Ball in the lineup its not even close.

I’m 100% taking Ball over Kuzma long term. I just feel that, in a season-to-date award, Kuzma has been better than Ball. Ball’s shooting to this point has been too big of an anchor, though admittedly he’s been much better the last 15-20 games.

I said it in the last thread, the hate for Lonzo was too much and I was really high on him long term. I worry about him being able to shoot at a high level [he won’t be able to recreate what he did in college IMO], but if he can settle in at 42/35 shooting split, he’ll be one hell of a player in this league.

[Cappy_Smurf]

This rookie discussion reminds me of when it was between Lebron and Carmelo. At that time it seemed they were neck and neck, re how it seems this year with Simmons and Mitchell. I feel like in a year or two it will be reminiscent of how it was with Lebron and Carmelo back then. Simmons is in a different league to this years rookies, he is a player that may be the one to match Lebron or even take the mantle, even Lebron thinks so and can already see that. We are all rediculously underrating Simmons simply because he set the bar so high from day 1. It’s laughable that he isn’t the favourite to win ROY anymore

Lmao

Simmons is fantastic player, but he has a flaw in his game that LeBron never had.

And comparing Mitchell to Melo might be the worst comparison ever posted on this board. Completely different people and completely different players. Melo prioritized money over everything. He forced a trade to NY and completely neutered his new team's ability to compete so he could get paid. On the other hand, Donovan Mitchell went out of his way to work out for Utah, even though they were picking 10 spots lower than he was projected to be drafted, simply because he and his agent recognized Utah as an ideal situation for him to play. Most people don't know that, but Mitchell being drafted to Utah wasn't just some fluke. Can you imagine Melo ever choosing to play in Utah? If someone even suggested it, I'm guessing it would be similar to Melo laughing his ass off at someone suggesting he come off the bench.

Nah, please don't ever use Donovan's name in the same sentence as Melo's ever again.

[crazy_me_87]

This rookie discussion reminds me of when it was between Lebron and Carmelo. At that time it seemed they were neck and neck, re how it seems this year with Simmons and Mitchell. I feel like in a year or two it will be reminiscent of how it was with Lebron and Carmelo back then. Simmons is in a different league to this years rookies, he is a player that may be the one to match Lebron or even take the mantle, even Lebron thinks so and can already see that. We are all rediculously underrating Simmons simply because he set the bar so high from day 1. It’s laughable that he isn’t the favourite to win ROY anymore

There are simillarities true. Melo was seen as the better Scorer and many believed he would end up beeing the better Pro.

Donovan is the better Scorer but Ben is simply the better All Around Player. But in the end it depends on what you want from your Player. Donovan is perfect for Utah.. especially with Hayward gone they desperatly needed a Franchise Player and most of all Go to Scorer. Donovan fills that role extremly well for a Rookie.

Ben is perfect for Philly as well with Embiid and Potentially Fultz both beeing better pure Scorers than him. He can totally develop into the Magic type of player he looks like.

I am feeling very lucky that i have been a fan of both for over a year now.. I dont have to choose because i can grin from ear to ear that i was right believing both would be great in the NBA

[LakersSoul]

First team all rookie:
Simmons
Mitchell
Tatum
Lauri
Kuzma

I think right now, more Lakers fans would say Ball is a better rookie than Kuzma. Lonzo has a bigger impact and has a much higher ceiling than Kuzma who is a stud and is improving his defense and passing.

Right now, in a re-draft, I dont see any serious Lakers fans passing on Lonzo with the 2nd pick over anyone including Mitchell who is offensively gifted and the best ROY candidate drafted from 2017 class. Mitchell is a star that Utah needed especially with Hayward moving to Boston. For the Lakers, they need someone like Lonzo leading the team with his pace, passing and defense.

I can see Magic adding 1-2 knockdown shooters, backup point, and a closer like PG over the summer and turn the Lakers into one of the top tier teams in the NBA. Lonzo is helping to build a championship team with his culture and pace. You know what else, the Lakers are so much more fun to watch with the transition game with Ball in the lineup its not even close.

I’m 100% taking Ball over Kuzma long term. I just feel that, in a season-to-date award, Kuzma has been better than Ball. Ball’s shooting to this point has been too big of an anchor, though admittedly he’s been much better the last 15-20 games.

I said it in the last thread, the hate for Lonzo was too much and I was really high on him long term. I worry about him being able to shoot at a high level [he won’t be able to recreate what he did in college IMO], but if he can settle in at 42/35 shooting split, he’ll be one hell of a player in this league.

I dont know why you would limit Lonzo to 35% shooting from 3 range. He shot 41% in college while taking 5.4 attempts per game and most were from far, far away range. Its not a guarantee that Lonzo will shoot 41% but its also not given that he will not improve on his 31% shooting this year so far. If I were a betting man, I would say he improves his shot more towards the 41% range than the 31% range. In fact, since January 1, 2018, Lonzo has shot roughly 37.3% in 16 games and an impressive 41.4% in his last 10 games.

Lonzo will continue to have these open 3s all game long too. Opponents are fearful of two things: First, Lonzo driving as he gets more aggressive and second, at a higher level, Lonzo passing the ball. Lonzo is a 6'6" point guard with long limbs, deceptive quickness, great vision and great reaction time. When his shots start falling, he will have so much weapons and the kid has such a high bbiq for a 20 year old rookie that its astounding. We havent even touched upon Lonzo posting up smaller guards yet.

[Gus McCrae]

I like Ball on the defensive end, but these kind of extraordinary ratings in all-in-one stats makes me question the weighting of defensive rebounding (and counting stats like steals and blocks, rewards gambling) for guards. I understand the value of ending defensive possessions with a rebound, but there's a massive difference between grabbing a contested or uncontested rebound.

Think that Ball's numbers might be a bit inflated because of the injury of Lopez as well. Not that Brook is a terrific defender but the experiment with Randle and Kuzma in the starting lineup as the 5 and 4 was disastrous, Ball's absent coincided with that stretch and therefore the on/off numbers might be influenced as well?

Someone posted this is the previous topic, but this pass is incredible.

Read on Twitter

He gets a lot of tip outs and is pretty sneaky on the offensive rebounds as well. Also, he is lined up in the key when players shoot FTs which I find interesting for a point guard. For the defensive stats he really doesn’t gamble a whole lot and rarely blows an assignment. His team defense is very good. I really don’t think this is a scenario of some gimmick for inflated stats ala Russell rebounds or Curry steals (couldn’t think of a good example lol).

[CBS7]

Lauri could be a darkhorse. He's trending upwards, averaging 20.2 and 8.5 in his last 8 games, and starting to get more national attention after that NYK game. Mirotic might get traded, which opens up more playing time for him too.

[SmartWentCrazy]

I think right now, more Lakers fans would say Ball is a better rookie than Kuzma. Lonzo has a bigger impact and has a much higher ceiling than Kuzma who is a stud and is improving his defense and passing.

Right now, in a re-draft, I dont see any serious Lakers fans passing on Lonzo with the 2nd pick over anyone including Mitchell who is offensively gifted and the best ROY candidate drafted from 2017 class. Mitchell is a star that Utah needed especially with Hayward moving to Boston. For the Lakers, they need someone like Lonzo leading the team with his pace, passing and defense.

I can see Magic adding 1-2 knockdown shooters, backup point, and a closer like PG over the summer and turn the Lakers into one of the top tier teams in the NBA. Lonzo is helping to build a championship team with his culture and pace. You know what else, the Lakers are so much more fun to watch with the transition game with Ball in the lineup its not even close.

I’m 100% taking Ball over Kuzma long term. I just feel that, in a season-to-date award, Kuzma has been better than Ball. Ball’s shooting to this point has been too big of an anchor, though admittedly he’s been much better the last 15-20 games.

I said it in the last thread, the hate for Lonzo was too much and I was really high on him long term. I worry about him being able to shoot at a high level [he won’t be able to recreate what he did in college IMO], but if he can settle in at 42/35 shooting split, he’ll be one hell of a player in this league.

I dont know why you would limit Lonzo to 35% shooting from 3 range. He shot 41% in college while taking 5.4 attempts per game and most were from far, far away range. Its not a guarantee that Lonzo will shoot 41% but its also not given that he will not improve on his 31% shooting this year so far. If I were a betting man, I would say he improves his shot more towards the 41% range than the 31% range. In fact, since January 1, 2018, Lonzo has shot roughly 37.3% in 16 games and an impressive 41.4% in his last 10 games.

Lonzo will continue to have these open 3s all game long too. Opponents are fearful of two things: First, Lonzo driving as he gets more aggressive and second, at a higher level, Lonzo passing the ball. Lonzo is a 6'6" point guard with long limbs, deceptive quickness, great vision and great reaction time. When his shots start falling, he will have so much weapons and the kid has such a high bbiq for a 20 year old rookie that its astounding. We havent even touched upon Lonzo posting up smaller guards yet.

1) the volume of NBA 3’s he took last year is far too small to declare it more significant than his current %’s. His college and current FT% and form indicate that last year was an aberration.

2) A 35 game sample of 31% is more significant than a 10 or 15 game sample of higher %’s.

3) as defenders now adjust to and better contest his threes, his %’s should drop

[ballup]

Lonzo should make make the All Rookie first team on pure impact alone. Do not need to be genius to see that his impact on the team is very high. And production was, he has been doing much better recently. Kid's going to be a very good player in the league.

I think the impact part is misleading. It's not that he isn't essential to the team, but it's that the team‘s playstyle has been centered around Lonzo from day 1. This is evidenced by how the Lakers are heavily transition dependent. Due to the nature of his playstyle, I don't think you can plug and play Lonzo like you can most of the other rookies. At the preseason, every one thought Lopez would be the best player on the team, but now he is being marginalized because he doesn't fit the offense very well.

Simmons, Mitchell, and Tatum are locks. Lonzo would have to edge out Lauri and Kuzma, but Lonzo‘s horrendous splits will hold him back.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

[Sactowndog]

People are sleeping on Bogdan Bogdanovich on this board. The kid has a huge impact on the team. Here are Pop’s comments on the kid:

“He’s a pretty good athlete, but he’s a fantastic basketball player,” Popovich said. “He’s really got a high basketball I.Q. He really understands innately how to play the game. He’s built for it mentally, whether it’s shooting the ball or understanding spatial arrangements on the court. Who is playing with, what shots are good and what shots aren’t.”

He started a little slower because he played Eurobasket and literally met his teammates 3 days before a short preseason.

Last 10 Games he has averaged:

14 pts. on 55% shooting and 50% from 3.
4.1 assists. 2.9 Rebounds.

My all Rookie team is:
Ball
Bogdanovich
Simmons
Tatum
Markkanen

All shoot high percentage and impact the game in multiple ways.

[Kolkmania]

I like Ball on the defensive end, but these kind of extraordinary ratings in all-in-one stats makes me question the weighting of defensive rebounding (and counting stats like steals and blocks, rewards gambling) for guards. I understand the value of ending defensive possessions with a rebound, but there's a massive difference between grabbing a contested or uncontested rebound.

Think that Ball's numbers might be a bit inflated because of the injury of Lopez as well. Not that Brook is a terrific defender but the experiment with Randle and Kuzma in the starting lineup as the 5 and 4 was disastrous, Ball's absent coincided with that stretch and therefore the on/off numbers might be influenced as well?

Someone posted this is the previous topic, but this pass is incredible.

Read on Twitter

He gets a lot of tip outs and is pretty sneaky on the offensive rebounds as well. Also, he is lined up in the key when players shoot FTs which I find interesting for a point guard. For the defensive stats he really doesn’t gamble a whole lot and rarely blows an assignment. His team defense is very good. I really don’t think this is a scenario of some gimmick for inflated stats ala Russell rebounds or Curry steals (couldn’t think of a good example lol).

I already said that I like him on the defensive end, but it's obvious that the Lakers want him close to the basket when the opponent shoots to get the ball in his hands as early as possible. Which is completely legitimate since he's excellent in early-offense, however does that make him a better defensive player? I just question the weighting of defensive rebounds in DRPM for guards because the number of rebounds are heavily influenced by a defensive scheme.

[Kurt Heimlich]

People are sleeping on Bogdan Bogdanovich on this board. The kid has a huge impact on the team. Here are Pop’s comments on the kid:

“He’s a pretty good athlete, but he’s a fantastic basketball player,” Popovich said. “He’s really got a high basketball I.Q. He really understands innately how to play the game. He’s built for it mentally, whether it’s shooting the ball or understanding spatial arrangements on the court. Who is playing with, what shots are good and what shots aren’t.”

He started a little slower because he played Eurobasket and literally met his teammates 3 days before a short preseason.

Last 10 Games he has averaged:

14 pts. on 55% shooting and 50% from 3.
4.1 assists. 2.9 Rebounds.

My all Rookie team is:
Ball
Bogdanovich
Simmons
Tatum
Markkanen

All shoot high percentage and impact the game in multiple ways.

Bogdanovich over Mitchell? Guessing that's a brain fart. The all rookie team is pretty set with the 2 laker rookies as the only question of who you pick right now IMO.

But you're right bogdan has had a nice year as well.

[Sactowndog]

People are sleeping on Bogdan Bogdanovich on this board. The kid has a huge impact on the team. Here are Pop’s comments on the kid:

“He’s a pretty good athlete, but he’s a fantastic basketball player,” Popovich said. “He’s really got a high basketball I.Q. He really understands innately how to play the game. He’s built for it mentally, whether it’s shooting the ball or understanding spatial arrangements on the court. Who is playing with, what shots are good and what shots aren’t.”

He started a little slower because he played Eurobasket and literally met his teammates 3 days before a short preseason.

Last 10 Games he has averaged:

14 pts. on 55% shooting and 50% from 3.
4.1 assists. 2.9 Rebounds.

My all Rookie team is:
Ball
Bogdanovich
Simmons
Tatum
Markkanen

All shoot high percentage and impact the game in multiple ways.

Bogdanovich over Mitchell? Guessing that's a brain fart. The all rookie team is pretty set with the 2 laker rookies as the only question of who you pick right now IMO.

But you're right bogdan has had a nice year as well.

I’m not a fan of the low shooting percentages Mitchell has displayed. He gets his points shooting in volume at low percentages. It’s interesting you claim it’s done at the half way point of the season. Last I checked the award was for a full year.

For example
Mitchell: 35 min. 22 points. 17 shots
Bogdan: 30 min. 14 points. 9 shots

The kid is just very efficient and always gets the ball to the person with the best shot. He is very similar to Ball in that manner.

Currently Tatum, Mitchell and Kuzma have fallen off a bit in 3 point percentage we shall see where they land. I think it’s been a great class and the first team will come from this pool depending how the second half of the season goes:

Simmons
Markkanen
Mitchell
Ball
Kuzma
Tatum
DSJ
Bogdanovich

[Scatocephalus]

Watch on YouTube

The problem with this game is that Spida pretty much shot them out of it the 4th. Couldn't a shot to save his life in the last 5 minutes.

[stitches]

Watch on YouTube

The problem with this game is that Spida pretty much shot them out of it the 4th. Couldn't a shot to save his life in the last 5 minutes.

Yeah, he got gassed and nobody was helping so... the law of averages caught up with him(he was 10/15 before that final stretch). Our offense is scary unbearable without him.

[KobeBryant24]

Read on Twitter

[GameBredAPBT]

There isn't a GM on the planet that would take ball over Donovan freakin Mitchell in a redraft. And saying he's got a higher upside than any one of Mitchell, Tatum, or Markkanen is just lakers fans being overly optimistic with their botched pick.

Having said that, ball is a pretty brilliant passer & his bbiq at his age is very impressive