2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[Stribor]

I really like the draft this year but one thing bothers me. Almost all of us agree that there was a change in attitude toward defense this year. Would this class look as good if defense would go back to normal???
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html
League average moved 10% since 2014 to day. That would subtract a decent amount from the stats. One could also argue that the impact would be greater for young players due to the steeper learning curve they would have to adopt. If things continue this way, it want impact them that much, but what if the league encourages defense next year???

[clyde21]

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
2. Luka Doncic
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Wendell Carter Jr.

[VCfor3]

JJJ averages for the past 5 games: (credit Peter Edmiston)
26mpg
14.2pts
3.8reb
2.0ast
3.4blk
60.4%FG
57.1%3PT
DRtg: 94.5

You'd like the rebounds to be higher and the blocks are helped by that 7block performance but still pretty solid numbers. Hopefully they start to run plays for JJJ especially later in the game even though he has one of the higher usages on the team. Conley needs more help though.

What is the explanation of people who watch him regularly about averaging same number of rebounds and blocks in 5 games ? He also had such games in college, which is pretty strange for a player with his measurements.

I'm not a great person to ask and I agree that it should be higher, but here are a few guesses until a smarter person shows up and corrects me.

-Gasol is usually under the basket and getting the rebounds. JJJ is usually closer to the perimeter and some of those blocks are on guys trying to drive in against him.
-JJJ needs to be more aggressive in regards to rebounding. I don't know if he is trying to avoid fouls or if he was told to get down the floor to either start a fast break or stop it, but there are times he starts running instead of going in to secure the rebound since Gasol or someone else is already in the area.
-JJJ also seems to tap out rebounds to other players a decent bit. You'd prefer him to secure the rebound, but at least he is getting a piece of it.
-JJJ also gets outmuscled at times under the basket. Kanter just overpowered him against the Knicks for instance. JJJ will likely fill out over time which should help a bit.
-Occasionally he is caught looking when the shot goes up. That has slowly been improving as he adjusts to the speed of the game.

Don't know if that'll help much and again take that opinion with multiple grains of salt.

[Fat]

I don't see any busts in the top 12. Pretty wild.

The word bust shouldn’t even exist for a rookie.

[mabundo_nagumbe]

I don't see any busts in the top 12. Pretty wild.

The word bust shouldn’t even exist for a rookie.

is it ok if instead we call them Fultz?

[stuporman]

Drinking and modding isn't a crime but Mags need a breathalyzer on his devices....

[E-Balla]

I don't see any busts in the top 12. Pretty wild.

If he's not a bust it's because he was the third best player on his team in college and had no business being drafted that high. I mean mocks didn't have him in the lottery.

[E-Balla]

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
2. Luka Doncic
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Wendell Carter Jr.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Deandre Ayton
5. Deandre Ayton

He's been on another level from all other rookies. They're all good for rookies. He's just good.

[stuporman]

JJJ reminds me of the issues people have with KP on the Knicks but with rebounding it's usually about positioning. When a player is a 'stretch big' on offense that sets up to shoot 3s they aren't in great position for offensive rebounds and when they are shot blockers who are always challenging shots and protecting the rim it draws them out of position for defensive rebounds.

He's also like the youngest player in the league, right? Him and Knox are so young they still are growing into their puppy feet, they are going to have games where the physicality of the league is going to take them out of their comfort zone and not be able to perform at a high skill level. With front line players like that just seeing flashes and stretches is enough because very few so young are ready to compete consistently at this level.

[The-Power]

I don't see any busts in the top 12. Pretty wild.

Let's wait and see. It's still the honeymoon phase these days. Objectively speaking, Bamba, Young and Knox have been pretty terrible thus far. We'll see where they go from here.

[Bob8]

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
2. Luka Doncic
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Wendell Carter Jr.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Deandre Ayton
5. Deandre Ayton

He's been on another level from all other rookies. They're all good for rookies. He's just good.

apparently he’s too good to help Suns winning some games.

[3toheadmelo]

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
2. Luka Doncic
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Wendell Carter Jr.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Deandre Ayton
5. Deandre Ayton

He's been on another level from all other rookies. They're all good for rookies. He's just good.

apparently he’s too good to help Suns winning some games.

Read on Twitter

[clyde21]

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
2. Luka Doncic
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Wendell Carter Jr.

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Deandre Ayton
5. Deandre Ayton

He's been on another level from all other rookies. They're all good for rookies. He's just good.

apparently he’s too good to help Suns winning some games.

Jackson Jr. and Doncic have much better teams around them than Ayton. Irrelevant point.

[Bob8]

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Deandre Ayton
5. Deandre Ayton

He's been on another level from all other rookies. They're all good for rookies. He's just good.

apparently he’s too good to help Suns winning some games.

Read on Twitter

meaning he will be as good as Davis? Bennett was 6/13.

[Bob8]

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Deandre Ayton
4. Deandre Ayton
5. Deandre Ayton

He's been on another level from all other rookies. They're all good for rookies. He's just good.

apparently he’s too good to help Suns winning some games.

Jackson Jr. and Doncic have much better teams around them than Ayton. Irrelevant point.

He put Ayton classes above all other rookies. I would expect that good player to have some impact on Suns. Dallas and Memphis have much better start than last year, Suns worse.

[eminence]

Most interesting part for me is following Young's development with his insane workload. No other rookie has close to the offensive responsibility he has, and very few compare historically (4th in AST%, 12th in USG% for a rookie ever).

Talk of busts/no busts is obviously pre-mature.

Rookies by Shadow's RAPM (as of 11/25) with 200+ minutes (roughly on track for 1000+ for the season), 23 total

Mikal Bridges 2.04
Gary Clark 0.87
Jalen Brunson 0.80
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.68
Donte DiVincenzo 0.67
Miles Bridges 0.56
Luka Doncic 0.55
Kevin Huerter 0.41
Chandler Hutchison 0.11
Mitchell Robinson -0.03
Josh Okogie -0.06
Deandre Ayton -0.10
Hamidou Diallo -0.35
Jaren Jackson Jr -1.11
Landry Shamet -1.34
Allonzo Trier -1.45
Collin Sexton -1.57
Kevin Knox -1.68
Wendell Carter Jr -1.91
Omari Spellman -2.05
Marvin Bagley III -2.19
Mohamed Bamba -3.02
Trae Young -3.44

[cccmonteiro]

Watch on YouTube

[E-Balla]

apparently he’s too good to help Suns winning some games.

Jackson Jr. and Doncic have much better teams around them than Ayton. Irrelevant point.

He put Ayton classes above all other rookies. I would expect that good player to have some impact on Suns. Dallas and Memphis have much better start than last year, Suns worse.

Ayton has a -5.8 on court rating. When he's off the court Phoenix has a -18.5 rating. If that's not impact I don't know what is. Meanwhile JJJ has by far the lowest +/- in the Memphis starting lineup and they do better with JaMychael Green out with the other 4 and the Mavs starting 5 is the 2nd worst in the league next to Washington.

Ayton has nothing to do with the fact that he plays with only 2 other good players (Booker and Bridges). Same way Doncic has nothing to do with Dallas having the best bench in the league and JJJ has nothing to do with Gasol/Conley destroying other teams (those two are the 9th best 2 man lineup in the league).

[E-Balla]

Most interesting part for me is following Young's development with his insane workload. No other rookie has close to the offensive responsibility he has, and very few compare historically (4th in AST%, 12th in USG% for a rookie ever).

Talk of busts/no busts is obviously pre-mature.

Rookies by Shadow's RAPM (as of 11/25) with 200+ minutes (roughly on track for 1000+ for the season), 23 total

Mikal Bridges 2.04
Gary Clark 0.87
Jalen Brunson 0.80
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.68
Donte DiVincenzo 0.67
Miles Bridges 0.56
Luka Doncic 0.55
Kevin Huerter 0.41
Chandler Hutchison 0.11
Mitchell Robinson -0.03
Josh Okogie -0.06
Deandre Ayton -0.10
Hamidou Diallo -0.35
Jaren Jackson Jr -1.11
Landry Shamet -1.34
Allonzo Trier -1.45
Collin Sexton -1.57
Kevin Knox -1.68
Wendell Carter Jr -1.91
Omari Spellman -2.05
Marvin Bagley III -2.19
Mohamed Bamba -3.02
Trae Young -3.44

Where'd you find RAPM at?

[eminence]

Where'd you find RAPM at?

Shadow updates his on APBR every week or two.