Unfair race to the 8th/9th seed

[13th Man]

Since all of these teams are under .500, it's - statistically speaking - an advantage to play less games...

Except in the bubble when they only play 8 games max and teams are throwing games left and right half way through.

[phanman]

It's just a crappy situation all around. If you gave San Antonio more games just to catch up and match game totals, it'd be against teams that are either already eliminated, or playoff squads that aren't going to take the game seriously. All of a sudden the disadvantage goes against Portland who played more games where both teams actually tried.

I don't think the league went into the plan thinking that 4 teams would be essentially tied for that playoff seeding so yes I do agree with that. I get it plans aren't perfect but it just seems like such a crucial portion of it was just overlooked. Sort of surprising really these teams haven't made it a point of emphasis to the media/NBA.

Would be nice for example if teams within that 4 game (or lower) were just allowed the opportunity to participate in a play-in tournament, but that is obviously too late.

[jbk1234]

If you're not playing .500 ball, you really don't have a legitimate gripe IMO.

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[SD2042]

Memphix and Phoenix also had tough schedules. New Orleans was the only team the league clearly rigged the schedule for and they somehow **** it up.

The schedule was literally based on the teams actual schedule. How the **** was it rigged?

yeah that narrative sticking is insane. Lazy media started the whole the NBA is only doing this for Zion. Which okay, I think we all agree the league would have liked him in the playoffs. But then fans just started running with this schedule thing which was totally false. I'm embarrassed for anyone still spitting those lines.

The media running the propaganda of pulling for Zion to get to the playoffs didn't help the cause. As for the schedule being rigged, not the case. There have been many teams in the league whose schedule has been ending on an easy note throughout the years. What the media underestimated was Zion's injuries, lack of conditioning and the young Pels lack of playoff experience that ultimately spelled their doom this season.

[Promezclan]

Since all of these teams are under .500, it's - statistically speaking - an advantage to play less games...

Except in the bubble when they only play 8 games max and teams are throwing games left and right half way through.

They all play the same number of games in the bubble. The extra game they got was BEFORE the bubble when they were losing more games than winning. If they had an extra game before the bubble, winning that game means they would win if they tied in the bubble, losing the game means they would lose if they tied in the bubble (vs. themselves without the extra game). They clearly had a lower than 50% chance of winning that extra game, so the extra game was a disadvantage.

[Klinky]

Since all of these teams are under .500, it's - statistically speaking - an advantage to play less games...

Except in the bubble when they only play 8 games max and teams are throwing games left and right half way through.

Then it's also unfair to give teams extra games to score "easy wins" which they wouldn't have won in the regular season. I don't think there is an easy solution, other than "you should have won more games in the regular season" and "you get a 4 game handicap to make a play-in tournament". The teams don't even need to get to the 8th seed, they just need to get to the 9th seed, a benefit not granted to them in the regular season.

[13th Man]

Since all of these teams are under .500, it's - statistically speaking - an advantage to play less games...

Except in the bubble when they only play 8 games max and teams are throwing games left and right half way through.

They all play the same number of games in the bubble. The extra game they got was BEFORE the bubble when they were losing more games than winning. If they had an extra game before the bubble, winning that game means they would win if they tied in the bubble, losing the game means they would lose if they tied in the bubble (vs. themselves without the extra game). They clearly had a lower than 50% chance of winning that extra game, so the extra game was a disadvantage.

Ahh, I see your logic, didn't realize the discrepancy was from before the bubble. Let me see if I can counter this from a mathematical standpoint lol

[SK21209]

Is it ultimately unfair for these teams to end up having played a different number of games? Yeah, it is. You know what else is unfair? A global pandemic that interrupted the season and basically everyone in the world's life. Who cares if bubble seeding is unfair in a certain respect, its the best they could do.

[phanman]

Just feel for PHX fans whose team may go 8-0 and tie-breakers don't get utilized (they win due to division record) with Portland because they have an extra game on their record.

Especially with Portland playing Brooklyn, and Memphis potentially getting a break with Giannis' headbutt to Milwaukee and overall disinterest in ending the season.

[Myth]

Couple of thoughts:

1: Yes, I can see that the number based on the percentage makes it unfair. I want to acknowledge that right off the bat.

2: It could also be considered unfair if a team had more or less games than other teams in the bubble to make up for that difference. Whether you argue that is because only the upper end teams are in the bubble, or because opponents in the bubble may have more or less reason to try hard in a game, or because the nature of the games in the bubble themselves are not quite the same as regular season games. The point being, there was no way to make the season fully fair. Though, even in the regular season things aren't always fair. Strength of schedule is always a thing, sometimes you get 2 home games and 1 away game vs a tough team while another team matches against that same tough team 4 times.

3: There was also some unfairness in the opposite direction based on these percentages as well when it comes to lottery/draft. Yes, Portland got the advantage based on that starting percentage in regards to getting to the playoffs. However, if they hypothetically **** the bed in the bubble, they wouldn't have improved their lottery odds/draft position even if they dropped below a team. Despite being in a virtual lock with multiple lottery teams coming into the bubble, Portland only had 3 draft/lottery position options: 17th (if they make the playoffs), 14th (if they miss the playoffs and Grizzlies make the playoffs), and 13th (if they and the Grizzlies missed the playoffs). Compare that to the Suns. Suns have played out of their minds to put themselves in the playoff conversation. But if they do miss the playoffs, their consolation prize will be the 10th pick even if they are in the 9th seed spot that would usually land them the 14th pick. So there is unfairness all around that I think kind of balances everything out.

No, fairly small changes in lottery odds don't nearly balance out with the win% issue. Not even close.

I disagree. Starting this bubble, it was an uphill battle to get into the playoffs. People thought that at best, we'd have to go 2-0 in a play-in situation vs Grizzlies, and that was assuming we stayed at 9th seed ahead of I believe it was 3 teams that we were half a game ahead of. We were more likely to stay lottery and get the 14th pick than get into the 8th seed. If this were the regular season and we do bad, we get rewarded with a higher draft pick. If Blazers played like trash, we could have dropped down behind 4 teams and not got rewarded with the 10th pick. Portland's options were play well and make playoffs, play mediocre and get the worst pick of the teams entering the bubble in lottery position, or play the worst of all the teams and still get the worst pick of the teams entering the bubble in lottery position. Other teams like Pelicans and Spurs had the options of play well and make the playoffs, play mediocre and still get better picks than Portland, or play like trash and still get better picks than Portland. Just because Portland played well and most likely makes the playoffs by a slim margin does not take away the disadvantage as a franchise they started out with in the bubble. Some even theorized that this was part of the proposal that Portland didn't like leading to them voting against the bubble format.

[Lockdown504090]

theres nothing fair about 2020. deal wit it.

[Myth]

Just feel for PHX fans whose team may go 8-0 and tie-breakers don't get utilized (they win due to division record) with Portland because they have an extra game on their record.

Especially with Portland playing Brooklyn, and Memphis potentially getting a break with Giannis' headbutt to Milwaukee and overall disinterest in ending the season.

Actually, I believe the Blazers own the tie breaker with PHX. Division record is only the 3rd tie breaker if they are in the same division, which they are not. So it goes to the 4th tie breaker, which is conference record, which Portland has the better record. Grizzlies would also have tiebreaker over the Suns due to head to head records.

[Myth]

theres nothing fair about 2020. deal wit it.

Yeah. Only way to make it fair would be for all 30 teams to come out and play the rest of their schedules, which obviously wasn't going to happen.

[Rapcity_11]

Couple of thoughts:

1: Yes, I can see that the number based on the percentage makes it unfair. I want to acknowledge that right off the bat.

2: It could also be considered unfair if a team had more or less games than other teams in the bubble to make up for that difference. Whether you argue that is because only the upper end teams are in the bubble, or because opponents in the bubble may have more or less reason to try hard in a game, or because the nature of the games in the bubble themselves are not quite the same as regular season games. The point being, there was no way to make the season fully fair. Though, even in the regular season things aren't always fair. Strength of schedule is always a thing, sometimes you get 2 home games and 1 away game vs a tough team while another team matches against that same tough team 4 times.

3: There was also some unfairness in the opposite direction based on these percentages as well when it comes to lottery/draft. Yes, Portland got the advantage based on that starting percentage in regards to getting to the playoffs. However, if they hypothetically **** the bed in the bubble, they wouldn't have improved their lottery odds/draft position even if they dropped below a team. Despite being in a virtual lock with multiple lottery teams coming into the bubble, Portland only had 3 draft/lottery position options: 17th (if they make the playoffs), 14th (if they miss the playoffs and Grizzlies make the playoffs), and 13th (if they and the Grizzlies missed the playoffs). Compare that to the Suns. Suns have played out of their minds to put themselves in the playoff conversation. But if they do miss the playoffs, their consolation prize will be the 10th pick even if they are in the 9th seed spot that would usually land them the 14th pick. So there is unfairness all around that I think kind of balances everything out.

No, fairly small changes in lottery odds don't nearly balance out with the win% issue. Not even close.

I disagree. Starting this bubble, it was an uphill battle to get into the playoffs. People thought that at best, we'd have to go 2-0 in a play-in situation vs Grizzlies, and that was assuming we stayed at 9th seed ahead of I believe it was 3 teams that we were half a game ahead of. We were more likely to stay lottery and get the 14th pick than get into the 8th seed. If this were the regular season and we do bad, we get rewarded with a higher draft pick. If Blazers played like trash, we could have dropped down behind 4 teams and not got rewarded with the 10th pick. Portland's options were play well and make playoffs, play mediocre and get the worst pick of the teams entering the bubble in lottery position, or play the worst of all the teams and still get the worst pick of the teams entering the bubble in lottery position. Other teams like Pelicans and Spurs had the options of play well and make the playoffs, play mediocre and still get better picks than Portland, or play like trash and still get better picks than Portland. Just because Portland played well and most likely makes the playoffs by a slim margin does not take away the disadvantage as a franchise they started out with in the bubble. Some even theorized that this was part of the proposal that Portland didn't like leading to them voting against the bubble format.

The bolded is literally as fair as it can get. You can say that about every team battling for the 8 seed.

The bubble is to determine playoff teams, not to determine lottery order.

What is wildly unfair is 2 teams being tied in the standings, but one of them being ahead due to a tiny difference in winning %.

[Reign23]

Just feel for PHX fans whose team may go 8-0 and tie-breakers don't get utilized (they win due to division record) with Portland because they have an extra game on their record.

Especially with Portland playing Brooklyn, and Memphis potentially getting a break with Giannis' headbutt to Milwaukee and overall disinterest in ending the season.

why do you feel bad for phoenix? they were terrible pre bubble and now play against exhibition teams...
their last 3 games are/were against OKC w/o SGA, Gallo, Schröder and Adams, against Philly w/o Harris, Embiid, Simmons, Richardson and Horford and will most def play Dallas in the last game w/o Luca and KP.
No way the go undefeated if those teams were at least a normal strength.

They did a great job so far, no doubt, tho. But I don't feel sorry for them...

[13th Man]

Except in the bubble when they only play 8 games max and teams are throwing games left and right half way through.

They all play the same number of games in the bubble. The extra game they got was BEFORE the bubble when they were losing more games than winning. If they had an extra game before the bubble, winning that game means they would win if they tied in the bubble, losing the game means they would lose if they tied in the bubble (vs. themselves without the extra game). They clearly had a lower than 50% chance of winning that extra game, so the extra game was a disadvantage.

Ahh, I see your logic, didn't realize the discrepancy was from before the bubble. Let me see if I can counter this from a mathematical standpoint lol

Alright, I can't come up with anything from a mathematical/statistical pov to make it more fair.

The other option that I mulling over was to have all teams play the exact number of total regular season games, but then there could be an unfair argument against that since winning percentages in the bubble differ from pre-bubble by not having basement-dwelling teams in the mix. I'm sure the league has considered that option as well.

[Myth]

No, fairly small changes in lottery odds don't nearly balance out with the win% issue. Not even close.

I disagree. Starting this bubble, it was an uphill battle to get into the playoffs. People thought that at best, we'd have to go 2-0 in a play-in situation vs Grizzlies, and that was assuming we stayed at 9th seed ahead of I believe it was 3 teams that we were half a game ahead of. We were more likely to stay lottery and get the 14th pick than get into the 8th seed. If this were the regular season and we do bad, we get rewarded with a higher draft pick. If Blazers played like trash, we could have dropped down behind 4 teams and not got rewarded with the 10th pick. Portland's options were play well and make playoffs, play mediocre and get the worst pick of the teams entering the bubble in lottery position, or play the worst of all the teams and still get the worst pick of the teams entering the bubble in lottery position. Other teams like Pelicans and Spurs had the options of play well and make the playoffs, play mediocre and still get better picks than Portland, or play like trash and still get better picks than Portland. Just because Portland played well and most likely makes the playoffs by a slim margin does not take away the disadvantage as a franchise they started out with in the bubble. Some even theorized that this was part of the proposal that Portland didn't like leading to them voting against the bubble format.

The bolded is literally as fair as it can get. You can say that about every team battling for the 8 seed.

The bubble is to determine playoff teams, not to determine lottery order.

What is wildly unfair is 2 teams being tied in the standings, but one of them being ahead due to a tiny difference in winning %.

We clearly disagree. Those are the rules they established, but I don't believe they are fair. So a slight winning percentage difference determining playoff seeding is unfair, but if a team improves their record very clearly above Portland and still gets the better draft pick that is fair? That goes against how all regular seasons have gone forever. As it has always been, I believe it is fair to give the teams with the lower final seeding placements the higher picks. I get that the teams not playing are in fixed locations, but draft orders among those playing should still be impacted by their final record just as the playoff positioning is.

[ruffian253]

Just feel for PHX fans whose team may go 8-0 and tie-breakers don't get utilized (they win due to division record) with Portland because they have an extra game on their record.

Especially with Portland playing Brooklyn, and Memphis potentially getting a break with Giannis' headbutt to Milwaukee and overall disinterest in ending the season.

Actually, I believe the Blazers own the tie breaker with PHX. Division record is only the 3rd tie breaker if they are in the same division, which they are not. So it goes to the 4th tie breaker, which is conference record, which Portland has the better record. Grizzlies would also have tiebreaker over the Suns due to head to head records.

So if Portland, Memphis, and PHX win out tomorrow, then Portland is 8 and Memphis is 9? If either memphis and somehow the suns lose tomorrow, then Spurs are 9?

[EGame]

I think it’s safe to say that nothing about this season has been fair. A lot of arguments could be made for the Suns/Spurs about how it isn’t fair but on the flip side there are a lot of arguments that could be made for the Blazers it isn’t fair. This was probably the best way to give teams a chance to fight for the 8th seed outside of just starting the playoffs with the teams locked in as is. More games for the Blazers could have easily been more losses which would have made it harder for us especially because teams were trying then. We also went from have a middle of the road strength of schedule before the postponement of the NBA to getting a really tough schedule in the bubble. If we make the play in we would have earned it. We could have easily lost to a Memphis team that obviously they don’t look good now but had been looking good before the shutdown. Could have lost to Houston, Denver, etc. there was never a fair way for this to happen outside of these three teams playing each other in the bubble and that never happened.

[Myth]

Just feel for PHX fans whose team may go 8-0 and tie-breakers don't get utilized (they win due to division record) with Portland because they have an extra game on their record.

Especially with Portland playing Brooklyn, and Memphis potentially getting a break with Giannis' headbutt to Milwaukee and overall disinterest in ending the season.

Actually, I believe the Blazers own the tie breaker with PHX. Division record is only the 3rd tie breaker if they are in the same division, which they are not. So it goes to the 4th tie breaker, which is conference record, which Portland has the better record. Grizzlies would also have tiebreaker over the Suns due to head to head records.

So if Portland, Memphis, and PHX win out tomorrow, then Portland is 8 and Memphis is 9? If either memphis and somehow the suns lose tomorrow, then Spurs are 9?

I haven't looked up all the scenarios based on upcoming games.