Is RJ Barrett being slept on as a potential future All Star?

[Murray_17]

I think because of his positive A/TO rate and good rebounding, and good FT rate, he'll be at least a starter throughout his career.

Also RJ's FT% went from 61.4% to 74.6% to 71.3%

He's obviously improved since year 1, it's just that now he's getting to the line at a higher rate. And I wouldn't be surprised if he has a FT% of like 77% sometime in the future since he had a near 75% in season 2.

Overall RJ's efficiency went from terrible to not bad (that 40% 3P season helped) to bad. His shooting percentages are kind of all over the place, so it's kind of hard to predict where he's going to end up in season 4.

The fact you're arguing taking more FTs is what reduced his % from the line, makes my entire argument. He does not have a consistent enough shooting form to be efficient. A real improvement will show at least the same percentages over the increase in volume.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=rj+barrett%25ts+by+year

The fact that his biggest TS is 53, while shooting 40% from 3 shows two facts:

1. Those percentages are a result of shooting on low volume of 3s
2. His overall efficiency is bad and below average.

The fact his shooting percentages are all over the place is the result of his efficiency decreasing with a bigger volume of shots.

After 3 years of not seeing improvement in this department is wild to say he's going to be more than a volume scorer. The fact he's drawing a good amount of FTs, for a third year player, and there is no jump in his efficiency is more evidence of the same problem.

He's young but his numbers are super pedestrian to claim he's a future all star. You're waiting for a real big jump

[knicksNOTslick]

Watching the games, it's easy to see why RJ's efficiency dipped from year 2 to year 3. He struggled a lot in the beginning of the season but has played well since then. He's also added a lot to his moves this season. Last year, if he wasn't driving to the basket, he was mostly used as a corner catch and shoot player. This year, he's trying to add more to his game, creating more for himself. Next year, he'll probably work on his pullup shooting game, midrange etc. There's not a lot of players I have hope for to improving their game by a lot but RJ seems like the guy that can do it. He has the desire and work ethic.

Every year, RJ is adding more to his game and I believe he'll get there. Just needs to put it all together in the next 2 years.

[Sane]

Yes, I've been thinking he's going to be a late bloomer but end up a really really good player. I guarantee he would be better offensively under many other coaches too, scoring in a Thibs offense is a very high degree of difficulty unfortunately. Also if he were on a team with a superstar, it changes the whole floor for him. You already can't leave him open from 3.

I think he ends up an 78% FT shooter and a 36-38% 3pt shooter plus he will keep going to the line a lot. I would max him out if given the opportunity, definitely a good risk. He's a great defender and people really really really really undervalue that. They think for example rebounding and defense are both important things when rebounding is one of the least important stats in the world and defense is 50% of the 48 minutes. A two-way player like him on a team with two clearly better scorers than him would feast, so I think he could definitely be a top 3 player on a championship winner.

[Vampirate]

I think because of his positive A/TO rate and good rebounding, and good FT rate, he'll be at least a starter throughout his career.

Also RJ's FT% went from 61.4% to 74.6% to 71.3%

He's obviously improved since year 1, it's just that now he's getting to the line at a higher rate. And I wouldn't be surprised if he has a FT% of like 77% sometime in the future since he had a near 75% in season 2.

Overall RJ's efficiency went from terrible to not bad (that 40% 3P season helped) to bad. His shooting percentages are kind of all over the place, so it's kind of hard to predict where he's going to end up in season 4.

The fact you're arguing taking more FTs is what reduced his % from the line, makes my entire argument. He does not have a consistent enough shooting form to be efficient. A real improvement will show at least the same percentages over the increase in volume.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=rj+barrett%25ts+by+year

The fact that his biggest TS is 53, while shooting 40% from 3 shows two facts:

1. Those percentages are a result of shooting on low volume of 3s
2. His overall efficiency is bad and below average.

The fact his shooting percentages are all over the place is the result of his efficiency decreasing with a bigger volume of shots.

After 3 years of not seeing improvement in this department is wild to say he's going to be more than a volume scorer. The fact he's drawing a good amount of FTs, for a third year player, and there is no jump in his efficiency is more evidence of the same problem.

He's young but his numbers are super pedestrian to claim he's a future all star. You're waiting for a real big jump

Foul Drawing is a skill, and the fact he's almost drawing 6 FTs a game does bode well. I think being a FT shooter at around 75-77% is doable for him.

He's surpassed year 3 Derozan in the PPS territory.

In year 3 DeMar took 14.3 shots and scored 16.7 points, a 2.4 difference.

This year RJ is scoring 19.9 points on 16.8 shots, a 3.1 difference.

Demar while flawed became an All Star.

RJ is already ahead of Demar's curve here, in terms of points per shot and as an overall player. He went from a guy who couldn't shoot a 3, to a 35% ish shooter if we look at both this and last year.

Do I think he'll be a perennial All Star? No, but he should be good enough to make a few and certainly does enough aside from scoring to be more than a 6th man.

I honestly can see him being an All Star, but I didn't say it's going to happen in the immediate future, it'll probably happen in 2-3 years imo. I think he can maybe average 44/36/75 while drawing 6+ FTs a game at some point. Maybe higher, who knows, he'd hit 40% on his 3s once, it's if he can do that all at once.

[Murray_17]

Foul Drawing is a skill, and the fact he's almost drawing 6 FTs a game does bode well. I think being a FT shooter at around 75-77% is doable for him.

He's surpassed year 3 Derozan in the PPS territory.

In year 3 DeMar took 14.3 shots and scored 16.7 points, a 2.4 difference.

This year RJ is scoring 19.9 points on 16.8 shots, a 3.1 difference.

Demar while flawed became an All Star.

RJ is already ahead of Demar's curve here, in terms of points per shot and as an overall player. He went from a guy who couldn't shoot a 3, to a 35% ish shooter if we look at both this and last year.

Do I think he'll be a perennial All Star? No, but he should be good enough to make a few and certainly does enough aside from scoring to be more than a 6th man.

I honestly can see him being an All Star, but I didn't say it's going to happen in the immediate future, it'll probably happen in 2-3 years imo. I think he can maybe average 44/36/75 while drawing 6+ FTs a game at some point. Maybe higher, who knows, he'd hit 40% on his 3s once, it's if he can do that all at once.

That's 1.18 points per shot vs 1.17 per shot. It's almost the same level of efficiency, more over, DeRozan was getting those numbers shooting less 3s, which means he was better at midranges/around the basket than what RJ is now, already

Derozan never was an elite efficient scorer until 2 or 3 years ago either and he was getting all star selections on the base of the Raptors being a top team in the conference.

If that's your comparison what i said at the begining (Fringe all star, volume sixth man) looks right.

[Vampirate]

Foul Drawing is a skill, and the fact he's almost drawing 6 FTs a game does bode well. I think being a FT shooter at around 75-77% is doable for him.

He's surpassed year 3 Derozan in the PPS territory.

In year 3 DeMar took 14.3 shots and scored 16.7 points, a 2.4 difference.

This year RJ is scoring 19.9 points on 16.8 shots, a 3.1 difference.

Demar while flawed became an All Star.

RJ is already ahead of Demar's curve here, in terms of points per shot and as an overall player. He went from a guy who couldn't shoot a 3, to a 35% ish shooter if we look at both this and last year.

Do I think he'll be a perennial All Star? No, but he should be good enough to make a few and certainly does enough aside from scoring to be more than a 6th man.

I honestly can see him being an All Star, but I didn't say it's going to happen in the immediate future, it'll probably happen in 2-3 years imo. I think he can maybe average 44/36/75 while drawing 6+ FTs a game at some point. Maybe higher, who knows, he'd hit 40% on his 3s once, it's if he can do that all at once.

That's 1.18 points per shot vs 1.17 per shot. It's almost the same level of efficiency, more over, DeRozan was getting those numbers shooting less 3s, which means he was better at midranges/around the basket than what RJ is now, already

Derozan never was efficient until 2 or 3 years ago either and he was getting all star selections on the base of the Raptors being a top team in the conference.

If that's your comparison what i said at the begining (Fringe all star, volume sixth man) looks right.

I'd say solid starter to All Star depending on how he develops, the fact is he does average 5.9 rebounds a game and has a positive A/TO ratio so imo he's a more complete player than to be relegated to 6th man status.

[HMFFL]

No, OP, my expectations have always been that he should be an all-star, since he was the 3rd overall pick in his draft. For a 21 year old he's doing very well but we'll see how his game evolves next season.

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[Scalabrine]

Yes, his FG% and 3P% took a noticeable dip from last season.

However what might be overlooked is he's getting to the FT line at a very good rate at 5.7 FT attempts a game, this is an attribute a lot of All Stars have is simply being able to get to the line at a high rate.

Derozan for a while had his FG% hovering between 41%-44% similarly to RJ, however Derozan never developed an even below average 3 point shot till later in his career, it was constantly 30% or below. RJ's three point shooting looks like it's going to be around 34%-37% on average i'd say, given the limited data sample.

Barret is already a better rebounder and playmaker than Derozan after the first 3 years, which spells well at him contributing in more than 1 aspect in the game.

Early Derozan was regarded as an inefficient chucker, a moniker i don't think RJ shares.

I don't know if RJ will get to the scorer Derozan is today, but it's still food for thought.

His FT rate is irrelevant if he'snot hitting his FTs at a good rate.

The fact he cannot get above 80% as a ft shoter, in fact, suggest he will be an inneficient volume scorer.

To me, his celling, looks like a fringe possible all star or a 6th man on teams who need scoring from the bench, a Jordan Clarkson type of player

I think because of his positive A/TO rate and good rebounding, and good FT rate, he'll be at least a starter throughout his career.

Also RJ's FT% went from 61.4% to 74.6% to 71.3%

He's obviously improved since year 1, it's just that now he's getting to the line at a higher rate. And I wouldn't be surprised if he has a FT% of like 77% sometime in the future since he had a near 75% in season 2.

Overall RJ's efficiency went from terrible to not bad (that 40% 3P season helped) to bad. His shooting percentages are kind of all over the place, so it's kind of hard to predict where he's going to end up in season 4.

Its pretty easy for me to predict. If we have a starting quality point guard that can run the offense, get into the lane, and collapse defenses, then I think he's gonna improve on his efficiency. If we go into next year with Alec Burks as our best option at Point Guard, then I don't think his efficiency will improve a whole lot. I really like Burks as a member of the Knicks and I dont want to get rid of him, but hes a 2/3 who's best role is off the bench/spot starter. He's only starting at point guard for us because we literally don't have another option.

[Ursusamericanus]

I think he could end up being a 1-2x all-star, probably a 24/6/4 player at his peak. Maybe second banana on a contender.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

why do people still use FG% for assessing efficiency of a player? especially for a guard/wing who shoots decent number of 3's? Just use EFG%

He's shooting 44% from 2P. That's not good, and it has nothing to do with 3 pointers. To make up for that, he needs to shoot better than league average from 3, and he doesn't.

The worst shooting team from 2 in the entire league is Detroit at 49.4%, so Barrett is way worse from 2 than league average. League average from 3 is 35.2%, and Barrett's under that. He's also quite a bit under league average from the FT line.

He's just not a good shooter, period.

His turnover rate is pretty low, but that's expected since he's not much of a playmaker. You're left with an okay defender, solid rebounder, bad scorer/shooter, non-playmaker. That doesn't make you an all-star. He has multiple areas that need improvement.

[kenwood3333]

You can pick on one or two stats and make an argument for any player to have future all star potential.

[duppyy]

I never thought Wiggins would make an all-star game so anything can happen.

[Madhouse]

DeRozan improved a lot in an elite developmental environment. Time will tell with RJ. His decision making is lacking right now and also he needs to improve his mid range game a lot. Positive is that he has a very smooth looking shot from 3 and he can get to the rack. But everyone expected more, he did not take the famous 3 year leap.

[Maf]

Sure. Love all these suckers shooting 40% on crappy teams. Future HOFers, no doubts.

[KembaWalker]

Maybe as like a 3rd or 4th injury replacement guy. He'd have to improve dramatically just to catch up to like, Miles Bridges who I also don't think will likely be a regular in the all star game over the next 5 years