FiveThirtyEight giving the Celtics an 83% chance to win finals

lars_rosenberg · Post #21 » by **lars_rosenberg** » Mon May 30, 2022 7:55 am

As a Warriors fan, I prefer to be the underdog. So, it's good to read these predictions.

KamikazeK · Post #22 » by **KamikazeK** » Mon May 30, 2022 8:27 am

AussieCeltic wrote:538 has been on the Celtics since Jan/Feb. Even the biggest Celtics homers thought it was crazy. But here we are, 4 games away from them being right.

If the C's manage to win the Finals, then people are going to start treating 538 like gospel next year. :lol:

Post #23 » by **floppymoose** » Mon May 30, 2022 8:36 am

GiannisAnte34 wrote:Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

They had Trump with about a 30% chance at election day. 538 doesn't do NBA very well but their political polling coverage is solid. Even if you disagreed with that statement, the two are very unrelated so it doesn't make sense to mention one to disparage the other.

hoosierdaddy34 · Post #24 » by **hoosierdaddy34** » Mon May 30, 2022 8:56 am

Given their track record on basketball, that’s bad news for the Celtics.

hoosierdaddy34 · Post #25 » by **hoosierdaddy34** » Mon May 30, 2022 8:58 am

floppymoose wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

They had Trump with about a 30% chance at election day. 538 doesn't do NBA very well but their political polling coverage is solid. Even if you disagreed with that statement, the two are very unrelated so it doesn't make sense to mention one to disparage the other.

Their political analysis is pretty spot on. Their poll of polls was in like 1% of the final general election numbers both in 2016 and 2020. Im not sure how you can get much more accurate.

JayMKE · Post #26 » by **JayMKE** » Mon May 30, 2022 12:08 pm

alright putting my money on GS now

Dupp · Post #27 » by **Dupp** » Mon May 30, 2022 12:11 pm

I accept their decision

Sleep · Post #28 » by **Sleep** » Mon May 30, 2022 12:25 pm

They also gave the Warriors no chance to come out of the final four, by far the worst odds of all the remaining teams.

LBJKB24MJ23 · Post #29 » by **LBJKB24MJ23** » Mon May 30, 2022 12:31 pm

Sleep wrote:They also gave the Warriors no chance to come out of the final four, by far the worst odds of all the remaining teams.

on April 11, a day after the NBA regular season ended, they gave the Warriors a 22% chance to make the NBA Finals, 3rd best.

Celtics they gave the best chance at 48%

RyderMike · Post #30 » by **RyderMike** » Mon May 30, 2022 12:33 pm

Well, might as well make it official

robbie84 · Post #31 » by **robbie84** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:03 pm

The Warriors are a bit of an unknown. They have experience, but they haven't played anyone as good as the Celtics in the playoffs.
So there's a question mark about how they'll handle the Celtics size and length. The Celtics are huge and guarding Tatum and Brown is going to be tough. They are going to have to stop the Celtics wings defensively whilst scoring on the Celtics size. It's a huge task.

538 had the Celtics as championship favorites when their average sportsbook odds were 37 to 1.

Optms · Post #32 » by **Optms** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:07 pm

One thing is for sure

These Finals will determine the real champion. No asterisks. The best 2 teams going at it.

SecondTake · Post #33 » by **SecondTake** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:18 pm

hoosierdaddy34 wrote:
floppymoose wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

They had Trump with about a 30% chance at election day. 538 doesn't do NBA very well but their political polling coverage is solid. Even if you disagreed with that statement, the two are very unrelated so it doesn't make sense to mention one to disparage the other.

Their political analysis is pretty spot on. Their poll of polls was in like 1% of the final general election numbers both in 2016 and 2020. Im not sure how you can get much more accurate.

Spot on. Lol The guy you were quoting literally said they gave Trump 30 percent to win on election day. Pretty sure he won. They're awful

Sent from my SM-S908W using RealGM mobile app

robbie84 · Post #34 » by **robbie84** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:22 pm

The information available to predict basketball games is completely different to the information available to predict elections.

Please use some logic guys.

tripa · Post #35 » by **tripa** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:24 pm

Optms wrote:One thing is for sure

These Finals will determine the real champion. No asterisks. The best 2 teams going at it.

People are dumb and they'll find a way to put an asterisk on this one too.

mademan · Post #36 » by **mademan** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:25 pm

LBJKB24MJ23 wrote:
Sleep wrote:They also gave the Warriors no chance to come out of the final four, by far the worst odds of all the remaining teams.

on April 11, a day after the NBA regular season ended, they gave the Warriors a 22% chance to make the NBA Finals, 3rd best.

Celtics they gave the best chance at 48%

And im sure those numbers were assuming playing Grizz with Morant for the entire series and playing the Suns over the Mavs. Not GSW fault, they play who's in front of them, but those numbers need context.

Overall, the Celtics have been the best team since Jan 1st and have played better competition in the playoffs to get to the finals. Im not a gambling man so someone else is gonna have to explain how GSW is favoured here.

CIN-C-STAR · Post #37 » by **CIN-C-STAR** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:31 pm

SecondTake wrote:
hoosierdaddy34 wrote:
floppymoose wrote:They had Trump with about a 30% chance at election day. 538 doesn't do NBA very well but their political polling coverage is solid. Even if you disagreed with that statement, the two are very unrelated so it doesn't make sense to mention one to disparage the other.

Their political analysis is pretty spot on. Their poll of polls was in like 1% of the final general election numbers both in 2016 and 2020. Im not sure how you can get much more accurate.
Spot on. Lol The guy you were quoting literally said they gave Trump 30 percent to win on election day. Pretty sure he won. They're awful

Sent from my SM-S908W using RealGM mobile app

Tell me you dont understand probability without telling me you dont understand probability

life_saver · Post #38 » by **life_saver** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:41 pm

538 is pretty good when it comes to politics related stuff and political predictions. Their sports predictions aren't as good as politics..so I wouldn't take this way too seriously. I think the major issue when it comes sports predictions are injuries and players availability. I do think Celtics have a chance but not like 83%. But 538 seemed to be very high on Celtics right from February onwards.

kenwood3333 · Post #39 » by **kenwood3333** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:46 pm

Dont really care who wins, but just hoping for 7 close games rather than blowouts.

SK21209 · Post #40 » by **SK21209** » Mon May 30, 2022 1:48 pm

When a team is #1 in offensive and defensive rating for the last four months of an NBA season, the models are going to love your chances.