Post#32 » by R-DAWG » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:59 pm
Let's see what the Knicks give up before saying they are making a mistake.
If it's unprotected picks in 23 and 25, two of the picks they own from other teams, and 2 out of Grimes, Toppin, IQ, Reddish then it's fine. If it's unprotected picks and swaps stretching to 2029 then it's not.
One thing you can say about Leon Rose is that he has a plan. The plan is the be relevant enough and flexible enough to attract stars, using the blueprint of the 2019 Nets and Clippers - who attracted superstars in free agency in part because they were already low-level playoff teams with a supporting cast that could help them win right away. And whether you agree with the plan or not, at least they have a plan with some logic to it. Sure - every move they made last offseason didn't work out, but they had a relatively inexpensive way to get off of those moves.
With Donnovan Mitchell, he's turning 26 years old and likely has another 5-7 seasons of being a top-20/fringe all-NBA guy. It's hard to get guys like that. That's why the key isn't how much stuff they give up, it's what stuff they give up. They need to be in position to give up 4 picks and 3 swaps going forward if and when a true #1 option becomes available. And because the Knicks have drafted well and stock piled draft capital they can give up the equivalent of 6-7 1st rd picks (including rookie scale players as the value of a 1st rd pick) and still have the chips for a future deal.
Everyone likes to look back at the Carmelo Anthony trade and say the Knicks gave up too much, but the reality is, the mistake was doubling down on Amare Stoudemire's health to land Tyson Chandler. Had NY kept the amnesty, they would have entered the summer of 2013 with a 28 year old Carmelo Anthony on a roster that contained only Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr and cap space to sign 2 max free agents (if you recall, both Chris Paul and Dwight Howard were free agents that summer). They also only owed 1 future pick and 1 swap at that time, so plenty of flexibility going forward with a foundational star already in place. I'm also not saying the current version of Donnovan Mitchell is as good as Carmelo was when he got to NY - he isn't and likely never will be.
And to be honest, I'm not sure Jalen Brunson or Julius Randle is on the roster when the Knicks put all the chips in to become a contender. Brunson will help break in the Mitchell/Barrett combination, which is really the foundation of what the Knicks are going to be building. And I think Mitchell-Barrett has the potential to be a very good combination as a 2nd and 3rd option on a contender. RJ can defend, slash and has been effective as a catch and shoot guy in addition to being a secondary playmaker. The concern with Brunson/Mitchell is on the defensive side of the ball - but that's an issue that we can address going forward. Randle is really the odd man out as NY would be much better off having a guy like Harrison Barnes as a stretch 4 - similar to how Portland built around Lillard/McCollum with 2 switchable combo forwards.
The best version of this Knicks team - Bubble Mitchell, continued improvement from RJ Barrett, 2021 Julius Randle, non Luka Brunson - has 50 win potential albeit not a true contender. Having said that, there is a version of that group that misses the play in tournament.
But I come back to, the Knicks need to be in position to package Randle or Brunson, plus 4 picks and 3 swaps, if and when a true franchise caliber player becomes available via trade, otherwise, there is no point in doing the Mitchell trade. And the offer I mentioned above (2 NY unprotected 1s, 2 1's from other teams, 2 rookie scale players) is a very significant offer. And it leaves NY with a pick in every draft going forward (with the 2023 DAL top-10 protected and 2025 MIL top-4 protected in place of their own picks in those years) and the ability to trade unprotected picks in 2027 and 2029 in addition to swaps in 2026 and 2028.