Can any math expert explain what Jokic is doing to get such high defensive advanced stats?

[rim213221]

He’s an amazing player and just as deserving as Embiid for MVP, especially cus he’s leading a generally bad team much farther than they should go, but advanced stats for defense are pretty useless.

Plenty of data has shown they are very flawed metrics that don’t accurately capture defensive impact.

[Triple M]

I dont understand this Embiid is a great defender narrative that has been thrown around lately. Are people ignoring how he gets killed on the perimeter. I would be willing to ignore it if the Sixers were an elite defensive team but theyve been closer to average all season.

[JonFromVA]

Good offense does contribute to defense in terms of things like cutting down transition opportunities.

The Nuggets are better defensively when Jokic is on the floor .vs. off, but the Sixers are a lot better when Embiid is on the floor and better overall when Embiid is on the floor .vs. Jokic.

So might help if the OP mentioned which "advanced stats" they were looking at?

[bebopdeluxe]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds (8.4 defensive), 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks. The 6ers as a whole have the 9th best defensive rating in the league at about 113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 7th in the league in terms of %.

Jokic is averaging 11.9 rebounds (9.5 defensive) 1.2 steals, .7 blocks. The Nuggets as a whole have the 16th best defensive rating in the league at about 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 9th in the league in terms of %.

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

I think this has to be related to the team composition both deal with. Jokic plays with a team that is worse overall defensively but does so much rebounding and improves them so much in the on/off numbers that the elite offense and scoring that he is delivering is making their defense look better because his team is out pacing an opponent.

I can't think of any other reason why. Outside of maybe Bruce Brown and KCP who are solid, the guys that Jokic has are not good defenders at all, but with Jokic they win off of offense.

I watch a lot of both players and I think Jokic is the better player.

You think Jokic is the better defender than Embiid?

Of course he doesn't.

[bebopdeluxe]

BPM loves steals for C's and overinflates them. Jokic fares especially well in DBPM as a result.

That makes some sense.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

A good example of why stats never tell the whole story and just blindly looking at stats without context has always been a poor argument

To be fair, the op didn't actually name any metrics that support his point.

[Johnny Bball]

nm

[Zombiesonics]

Quickly glancing at the tracking data, you can see that jokic is closer to Sabonis, Vooch, and Poetl than he is Brook lopez, embiid and gobert as far as paint protection. (I'm looking at the defensive dashboard too with who has the highest attempted on them). I think its hard to parse when the nuggets outscore opponents so often with him on the floor vs their bench, and my best guess like others have stated thats muddying things as far as BPM.

[CharityStripe34]

Advanced metrics are just as flawed as "regular" ones. Irrespective of Jokic or whomever.

[Kingdibs19]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds (8.4 defensive), 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks. The 6ers as a whole have the 9th best defensive rating in the league at about 113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 7th in the league in terms of %.

Jokic is averaging 11.9 rebounds (9.5 defensive) 1.2 steals, .7 blocks. The Nuggets as a whole have the 16th best defensive rating in the league at about 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 9th in the league in terms of %.

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

I think this has to be related to the team composition both deal with. Jokic plays with a team that is worse overall defensively but does so much rebounding and improves them so much in the on/off numbers that the elite offense and scoring that he is delivering is making their defense look better because his team is out pacing an opponent.

I can't think of any other reason why. Outside of maybe Bruce Brown and KCP who are solid, the guys that Jokic has are not good defenders at all, but with Jokic they win off of offense.

Jokic is leading the league with 45 kicked ball violations.
2nd place has 17.

https://deadspin.com/nikola-jokic-denver-nuggets-kicked-ball-violation-nba-1850226012

[Sark]

He's totally defensive stat padding

He sort of is.

DBPM weighs center assists about the same as blocks. So everytime he goes for those triple doubles, he's padding his defense.

[AleksandarN]

I think your premise is wrong. The advanced stats I prefer to use, RPM, has embiid the 12th best and jokic the 65th best.

But that doesn’t fit narrative that people are pushing that advance defensive metrics are pushing jokic in the MVP. Race.

[AleksandarN]

I dont understand this Embiid is a great defender narrative that has been thrown around lately. Are people ignoring how he gets killed on the perimeter. I would be willing to ignore it if the Sixers were an elite defensive team but theyve been closer to average all season.

Every big gets killed on perimeter except maybe Giannis. Embiid is a really really good rim protector though.

[HotelVitale]

I watch a lot of both players and I think Jokic is the better player.

You think Jokic is the better defender than Embiid?

Of course he doesn't.

I dunno, he might. I'm always up for a little contrarian argumentation.

Embiid does take a lot of plays off, too. Might be some elaborate stat argument based on that. Don't think it would end well but I'd hear the case out.

[bebopdeluxe]

You think Jokic is the better defender than Embiid?

Of course he doesn't.

I dunno, he might. I'm always up for a little contrarian argumentation.

Embiid does take a lot of plays off, too. Might be some elaborate stat argument based on that. Don't think it would end well but I'd hear the case out.

I agree that Embiid does not expend the amount of energy on a nightly basis on D like he did last night. However, given the massive usage that he has on the other side of the floor - being double-teamed CONSTANTLY - it does kinda make sense that he has to manage his energy out there. But there is no way that Jokic expends the amount of energy on offense that Embiid does - he is the maestro of the Denver offense, frequently working from the high-or-mid-post and finding cutters and open men - which he does better than any big man in the game. He isn't constantly grinding away to score the ball (he averages TEN points less a game than Embiid).

I have argued occasionally whether it might be better for the Sixers if Embiid focused more on defense - just be a DPOY player on the nightly that still scored 20-22 ppg, and let Maxey take the offensive reins. Would the team overall be better - as their defense could easily be a top-3 defense - if Embiid focused primarily on D?

[Godymas]

A good example of why stats never tell the whole story and just blindly looking at stats without context has always been a poor argument

To be fair, the op didn't actually name any metrics that support his point.

DWS, DBPM, Defensive RAPTOR

if you aren't aware of these #s for Jokic I don't consider you a basketball fan

[jazzfan1971]

I think your premise is wrong. The advanced stats I prefer to use, RPM, has embiid the 12th best and jokic the 65th best.

But that doesn’t fit narrative that people are pushing that advance defensive metrics are pushing jokic in the MVP. Race.

Well, don't ask a mathematician to fix a faulty narrative.

[Mavrelous]

Being very good offensively limits fast break, and makes defense better, I don't have the numbers to back it, just a guess.

[JonFromVA]

A good example of why stats never tell the whole story and just blindly looking at stats without context has always been a poor argument

To be fair, the op didn't actually name any metrics that support his point.

DWS, DBPM, Defensive RAPTOR

if you aren't aware of these #s for Jokic I don't consider you a basketball fan

And if you think box score based stats like DWS and DBPM and OVERALL DEF RAPTOR are serious stats for evaluating defense, I will spare you what I think because I try not to be obnoxious; rather I'll just ask if you took a look at ON/OFF DEF RAPTOR before creating this thread and insulting just about everyone wasting their time replying to you?

[dhsilv2]

I dont understand this Embiid is a great defender narrative that has been thrown around lately. Are people ignoring how he gets killed on the perimeter. I would be willing to ignore it if the Sixers were an elite defensive team but theyve been closer to average all season.

His defense has ups and downs. He's an elite rim protector when he's engaged and that's extremely valuable. But he absolutely has games and even stretches where he's lazy on that end.

Also he's playing with Harden and Maxey....Harden isn't the defensive liability some make him out to be, but he's hardly good. And Maxey is that bad.