At what point does 76ers hole become too big?

[og15]

The question is for what exactly. The Sixer haven't beaten a single decent opponent since the process started in the Playoffs. The best team were the Raptors as a 6th seed and Barnes and VanVleet both missed parts of that series. So the likeliness of them beating the Celtics or Cavaliers (assuming things don't change) as a play in team seem to be close to zero.

So what would really be the point to make it to the Playfofs as a play in team? The goal clearly has to be to make it to at least the 6th seed,but at this point I doubt it already. Not so much from a catching up to the current 6th seed perspective, I just don't think the team will really gel and ever be healthy.

Embiid has played 4 games while not having a major injury as far as we know. He is out now again for 3 games. Paul George is out again for 3 games. Kyle Lowry will turn 39 this year and is also out for 4 games now. That's 3 injury prone starters, 2 of them at an age were most players retire. And their guard back ups besides McCain are soon to be 36 year old Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson, who will turn 35 before the playoffs.

So when people talk about them catching up as soon as they are healthy, the question should actually be if they ever will be healthy. It's definitely not a good sign that 17 games in the season you have exactly one starter that has played every game of the season until now, while all other 4 already missed games due to injuries.

Embiid is a walking major injury.

Both the team and Embiid hoped his troublesome knee would be healthy enough to start the season, sources said. Yet week after week, the Sixers would issue updates that he was still out, but they were hopeful he'd be ready soon.

At first it seemed as though he simply needed more time to work his way back into shape after taking time off following the Summer Olympics. But as the preseason wore on, it was clear to anyone who saw him that Embiid's knee wasn't right.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/42623978/leaks-team-meetings-losses-factors-driving-philadelphia-76ers-dreadful-start

[cgf]

It already is. They may still get the 10th seed but even if they won both play-in games, they'd just get smacked in round 1.

[Jabroni Lames]

Over a decade later and the Sixers are still tanking. Trust the muthafrickin' Process.

[PlatinumState]

Last year it took 36 wins to get the #10 spot in the east. So they gotta be a .500 team and go 33-32 from now until the end of the season. I dont see it happening

[bkkrh]

The question is for what exactly. The Sixer haven't beaten a single decent opponent since the process started in the Playoffs. The best team were the Raptors as a 6th seed and Barnes and VanVleet both missed parts of that series. So the likeliness of them beating the Celtics or Cavaliers (assuming things don't change) as a play in team seem to be close to zero.

So what would really be the point to make it to the Playfofs as a play in team? The goal clearly has to be to make it to at least the 6th seed,but at this point I doubt it already. Not so much from a catching up to the current 6th seed perspective, I just don't think the team will really gel and ever be healthy.

Embiid has played 4 games while not having a major injury as far as we know. He is out now again for 3 games. Paul George is out again for 3 games. Kyle Lowry will turn 39 this year and is also out for 4 games now. That's 3 injury prone starters, 2 of them at an age were most players retire. And their guard back ups besides McCain are soon to be 36 year old Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson, who will turn 35 before the playoffs.

So when people talk about them catching up as soon as they are healthy, the question should actually be if they ever will be healthy. It's definitely not a good sign that 17 games in the season you have exactly one starter that has played every game of the season until now, while all other 4 already missed games due to injuries.

Embiid is a walking major injury.

Both the team and Embiid hoped his troublesome knee would be healthy enough to start the season, sources said. Yet week after week, the Sixers would issue updates that he was still out, but they were hopeful he'd be ready soon.

At first it seemed as though he simply needed more time to work his way back into shape after taking time off following the Summer Olympics. But as the preseason wore on, it was clear to anyone who saw him that Embiid's knee wasn't right.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/42623978/leaks-team-meetings-losses-factors-driving-philadelphia-76ers-dreadful-start

Haha, true. Concerning part is that no player had a major injury and they missed that much time, while 2 of their 3 stars are known for having major injuries frequently. At the moment the optimism about when they are healthy reminds me of somebody not worrying about constantly losing money gambling, since he can just win it all back with a future bet.

[cgf]

Last year it took 36 wins to get the #10 spot in the east. So they gotta be a .500 team and go 33-32 from now until the end of the season. I dont see it happening

Even if they did...and they won both play-in games, then what? A first-round curb-stomping?

[HotelVitale]

It already is. They may still get the 10th seed but even if they won both play-in games, they'd just get smacked in round 1.

Nah went off the deep end here and voiced the wrong concern. They're like 5 games from being the 5th seed and 1/5th of the season has passed. Mathematically any solid two-week stretch for the whole season could be enough for them to catch up.

So the situation is still plenty salvageable if they can start playing better...problem is more that it's hard to be confident that's going to happen anytime soon. If Embiid isn't at least very good, this team doens't have the depth or star power to do much.

[HotelVitale]

Over a decade later and the Sixers are still tanking. Trust the muthafrickin' Process.

I know, man, 8 years of averaging 50+ wins per year, what a frickin joke. Hopefully this Embiid injury will show all the fools that teams need to rebuild the right way like Detroit or Charlotte has, or like SAC or ORL who have had a combined 1 year of 50 win paces in the years since the Process started. Or IND, or BKN, or NYK, or MEM or NOP or the majority of other teams who have won a lot fewer games in the past 8 years than PHI has.

Glad Hinkie and this whole sham of an idea is dead now. Also glad this lets us start trashing the Process and the Sixers, that sounds like a really fresh thing that no one's been able to do over the past dozen years.

[TravisScott55]

They are in the east, one 5 game winning streak and they are back in the thick of things.

[tamaraw08]

The question is for what exactly. The Sixer haven't beaten a single decent opponent since the process started in the Playoffs. The best team were the 6th seed Raptors and Barnes and VanVleet both missed parts of that series. So the likeliness of them beating the Celtics or Cavaliers (assuming things don't change) as a play in team seem to be close to zero.

So what would really be the point to make it to the Playfofs as a play in team? The goal clearly has to be to make it to at least the 6th seed,but at this point I doubt it already. Not so much from a catching up to the current 6th seed perspective, I just don't think the team will really gel and ever be healthy.

Embiid has played 4 games while not having a major injury as far as we know. He is out now again for 3 games. Paul George is out again for 3 games. Kyle Lowry will turn 39 this year and is also currently out for 4 games already. That's 3 injury prone starters, 2 of them at an age were most players retire. And their guard back ups besides McCain are soon to be 36 year old Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson, who will turn 35 before the playoffs.

So when people talk about them catching up as soon as they are healthy, the question should actually be if they ever will be healthy. It's definitely not a good sign that 17 games in the season you have exactly one starter that has played every game of the season until now, while all other 4 already missed games due to injuries.

Maybe, just maybe the Sixers manage to eke out that 7-9th spot and at the same time Embiid, PG and the rest of the core happened to be healthy enough to play together in the final 15 games or so.
Embiid, PG would relatively be "fresher" not logging heavy minutes and hopefully for them, ready to play together by Mid March.
With no more Doc Rivers, Ben Simmons to put the blame on.

[HotelVitale]

3-14 at the moment, so 17 games gone, 65 remaining.

Let's say they only get the main guys together for 50 games the rest of the season, and in the remaining 15 games, they go 5-10 (I'm being pessimistic about it to stretch how much of a hole they could be in), so 8-24 in those 32 games.

If they win the other 50 games at a 50 win pace, that would get them to 38 wins, which is a .463 win percentage.

Currently, .463 win percentage would be 9th and would have them in the play-in. I'm assuming as long as they can make the play-in, they are content, so I suppose anything that projects them around 38+ wins they would be content to stomach.

Repeating myself but this is phrased to sound more dramatic than it is. The margins are so tiny from 5th-9th that if the Sixers had won .463 of games so far, winning literally one more game would land them in the 5th seed now.

It's really not time to panic mathematically for the Sixers, there's plenty of chances to make things up. The problem is more that they aren't going to win much more with the currently available roster, and Embiid really looked limited the couple games he did play. PG doesn't move the needle that much either.

I'm not convinced that those guys come back and turn the Sixers into the same like 55+ win teams they've been with Embiid around the past couple years. (But there's also not much more to say about it than 'guess we'll wait and see how he and the team look in a minute')

[Sixers in 4]

Last year it took 36 wins to get the #10 spot in the east. So they gotta be a .500 team and go 33-32 from now until the end of the season. I dont see it happening

Even if they did...and they won both play-in games, then what? A first-round curb-stomping?

It's not even really a plan it's just what will likely happen. We can't really tank unless George and Embiid don't play for the rest of the year the other teams will be trying to lose on purpose.

Going from that perspective I expect Morey will try to bring in some help. As far as finishing 10th really the only upside would be it would give us a 25 percent chance of keeping out pick and picking 1-4. I think what should be more concerning is the longterm ramifications for Embiid if he isn't right then this whole team and roster that is built around him falls apart. PG13 and Maxey probably at best make them a fringe playoff team

[Woodsanity]

Their ceiling is destroyed in the first round so its already too big.

[tamaraw08]

They are in the east, one 5 game winning streak and they are back in the thick of things.

I don't know if they can win 5 straight bec schedules for facing East and West teams are pretty spread out.
And it's not like most East teams are bad. Detroit and the Nets somehow are finding some rhythm and cohesion.
They face the Pistons and Charlotte... bad then back to back vs Orlando which is tough then 3 bad teams in Hornets, Bulls and... Spurs..If they don't rack up 6 wins there... When is Embiid coming back?

[thelead]

They’re obviously in a bad spot right now but they’re not doomed just yet. I agree with the others that said getting to ~20 games under .500 is probably when you can stick a fork in them. They’re not there yet but who knows when Embiid and PG are coming back.

[HotelVitale]

They are in the east, one 5 game winning streak and they are back in the thick of things.

I don't know if they can win 5 straight bec schedules for facing East and West teams are pretty spread out.
And it's not like most East teams are bad. Detroit and the Nets somehow are finding some rhythm and cohesion.
They face the Pistons and Charlotte... bad then back to back vs Orlando which is tough then 3 bad teams in Hornets, Bulls and... Spurs..If they don't rack up 6 wins there... When is Embiid coming back?

That's the thing, no one knows about Embiid's health so this is all just wheel-spinning. If Embiid comes back healthy and playing like he has in the past 5 years, there'll be no problem whatsoever. They've played at a .600+ pace for a long time now when Embiid's been healthy and the supporting cast is solid enough. So whether you're using last season or this one as a measure of what they need to get to a decent seed, the season's not in danger if he can get back.

But if he's out for half the season, if PG misses a bunch more time, if Embiid doesn't come back looking very good, etc, then yeah the Sixers are toast. But there's really nothing more to say now than 'guess we'll see what happens with the injured guys in the next couple weeks.'

The question is for what exactly. The Sixer haven't beaten a single decent opponent since the process started in the Playoffs. The best team were the 6th seed Raptors and Barnes and VanVleet both missed parts of that series. So the likeliness of them beating the Celtics or Cavaliers (assuming things don't change) as a play in team seem to be close to zero.

The 'Sixers' are a logo, there's nothing inherent to the team besides that. Literally no one is on the team besides Embiid from 2021, and only Maxey and him from 2022. They've changed GMs, coaches, almost the whole coaching staff, the entire roster and offensive philosophy/strategy, etc since 2019 too. And they were also a lucky bounce or two from beating the champ TOR team in '19 and BOS in '22. Even if you're tying this to Embiid and not believing in him, they now have two co-stars (Maxey and PG) and a whole new roster who are going to determine a series much more than Embiid on his own will.

Not trying to be defensive about the Sixers, believe me Philly folks are not feeling this team at all now. Aint no defending them. But this whole destiny talk always seems like sports talk nonsense, stuff to pull out when the host has to pass 45 minutes talking about a team. Lots of games and series can go either way and it's weird to pretend they were fated to go like they did, and teams can switch things up at any moment too. The Warriors were a joke for years until they were a dynasty, the Celtics were chokers until they became masters sometime last season, etc.

[SWedd523]

They need Gradey Dick to come in and fill that big hole

[Jabroni Lames]

Over a decade later and the Sixers are still tanking. Trust the muthafrickin' Process.

I know, man, 8 years of averaging 50+ wins per year, what a frickin joke. Hopefully this Embiid injury will show all the fools that teams need to rebuild the right way like Detroit or Charlotte has, or like SAC or ORL who have had a combined 1 year of 50 win paces in the years since the Process started. Or IND, or BKN, or NYK, or MEM or NOP or the majority of other teams who have won a lot fewer games in the past 8 years than PHI has.

Glad Hinkie and this whole sham of an idea is dead now. Also glad this lets us start trashing the Process and the Sixers, that sounds like a really fresh thing that no one's been able to do over the past dozen years.

Sorry, but that's a revisionist apologist, massively moving the goalposts.

The Process wasn't about regular season wins... it was all about playoff success. It was all about sustainable championship contention.

The Process hasn't gotten out of the second round. Let that sink in.

[phanman]

I think everybody saying the East is bad is really missing the point entirely. They are definitely worse in comparison to the Western conference but ever team in the conference except for Washington have all been scrappy this year and competitive in a majority every game played. The 76ers as it stands now, wouldn't just be able to cake walk the lower half of the Eastern conference.

Despite being 11 games under .500, it still too early to completely write them off. I think this next 6 game stretch will be the true indicator as to which direction the team goes. Pistons > Hornets > Magic x2 > Bulls > Hornets all winnable games with teams that they would need to catapult above to go back into playoff contention. I don't have any high hopes with how Embiid and PG has looked this season but those teams are also dealing with their own injury concerns

[Sixers in 4]

Over a decade later and the Sixers are still tanking. Trust the muthafrickin' Process.

I know, man, 8 years of averaging 50+ wins per year, what a frickin joke. Hopefully this Embiid injury will show all the fools that teams need to rebuild the right way like Detroit or Charlotte has, or like SAC or ORL who have had a combined 1 year of 50 win paces in the years since the Process started. Or IND, or BKN, or NYK, or MEM or NOP or the majority of other teams who have won a lot fewer games in the past 8 years than PHI has.

Glad Hinkie and this whole sham of an idea is dead now. Also glad this lets us start trashing the Process and the Sixers, that sounds like a really fresh thing that no one's been able to do over the past dozen years.

Sorry, but that's a revisionist apologist, massively moving the goalposts.

The Process wasn't about regular season wins... it was all about playoff success. It was all about sustainable championship contention.

The Process hasn't gotten out of the second round. Let that sink in.

The process wasn't allowed to complete because we fired one of the best GM in the league and replaced him with a guy who spent the majority of the time using burner accounts on twitter and blowing draft capital on historic busts.

Look there is nothing you are saying that is profound. We all know what happened. Hinkie efforts basically went to the Celtics due to BC. I am not even bitter about it at this point it is what it is. Presti is what happens when a GM is actually allowed to execute their strategic vision.

We are where we are and Morey has actually done a great job cleaning up the mess that was left behind. Getting Maxey, Embiid, and George and getting a bunch of picks from Harden was a great move if it gets waylayed by injuries to Embiid that is the breaks. I mean it's still super early to write this group off but if it happens due to injury it happens.