2024-25 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt. 3)

[Dan Z]

Per wiretap: Jared McCain out for the remainder of the season.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/278718/Jared-McCain-Ruled-Out-For-Remainder-Of-Season

[jasonxxx102]

If you’re looking at the betting markets nobody has any clue who ROY will be

Edey is still somehow the favorite despite being bad and barely being able to play 20 minutes.

Sarr has had the biggest move. I’ve got a 9.5:1 ticket for Sarr I grabbed earlier and he’s 2:1 now. I think wells at 9.5:1 is great value right now.

Castle still maybe has a chance because he’s a guard. Missi for ROY talk never made sense to me but he’s 5th.

After that shortest odds are Risacher at 25:1, which I wouldn’t hate either.

I know Bub has been historically bad if you look at the advanced metrics but 85:1 is way too long for the minutes he plays

[jasonxxx102]

Wells than Sarr, but the ROY award is there for anyone to claim. 15 games ago, Sarr wasn't even in the top 5.

On a side note, I don't get the love affair people have with Stephon Castle but all the hate Scoot gets.

Castle wasn’t hyped as a generational athlete.

Also he plays with Wemby.

Scoot has been really terrible relative to his pre draft hype and Castle has been about what people expected if not a little better

[MoneyTalks41890]

Edey is still the only rookie with a positive EPM

[jasonxxx102]

All you have to do is look at how EPM is calculated and look at Edey's role and how good the Grizzlies are and you can figure out why he's a positive in that stat. It tells you nothing. Nobody voting for ROY is going to care whether Edey is leading EPM or not when he's barely playing 20mpg

The all-in-one stats are great until people start taking them out of context to say "x player is good look at his EPM". Luke Kornet is a +1.1 in EPM. What does that tell you?

The Cavs have 7 players 87th percentile EPM and above. Do the Cavs have 7 elite NBA players or are they just a really good team?

[ijspeelman]

I'd be pretty disappointed (if players performances held the remainder of the season) if Sarr won the award.

I'll start with some positives. I actually really love the tools I've seen on the defensive end. I've already seen players treat him like a Gobert/Wemby/Chet/Mobley and just not shoot near him and pass it out. When he's on he court vs off, the Wizards have a boost of 2 (or they drop 2 points) to the DRTG. He has a 5.4% BLK% which is 11th in the league. Out of those 11 players, he's about average for foul rate (which is pretty great for a rookie) at 4.8 per 100pos.

On to the bad. The Wizards are -9.1 DRBs when he is on the court compared to off. That is extremely bad. He also shoots below 50% TS% giving him a 86 TS+ as a 7' big man. Even so, he's top 100 in FGA/100pos in the entire league. To me, this is mainly because he shoots 40% of his shots from floater range to right before the 3P line and is shooting 35% from here.

I know the Wizards lack a good way to get good shots, but idk if allowing your rookie to shoot whatever shot he wants is the way to go. The ROY race isn't about projection, but never having a good FT% does not bode well in him developing into even an average shooter from deep. His 31.2% from downtown is actually better than I thought he'd be this season, but it'll be a hard road for him to become someone I even want taking threes.

I just think what Jaylen Wells has done and how he contributed to a high-end roster has him as the front-runner so far.

[jasonxxx102]

I think Sarr probably has the biggest case to get the usage to win the award if he just starts playing better or putting up big counting stats.

I think Jaylen Wells is the better player but Grizz are way too deep.

I get where you are coming from but contributing to a good team doesn't matter for ROY.

[ijspeelman]

I think Sarr probably has the biggest case to get the usage to win the award if he just starts playing better or putting up big counting stats.

I think Jaylen Wells is the better player but Grizz are way too deep.

I get where you are coming from but contributing to a good team doesn't matter for ROY.

I get what you are saying bc ROY is usually about raw numbers and like you said not necessarily about contributing to winning, but Wells is matching Sarr's scoring totals on better efficiency and in a winning context. I would hope that would amount to something even if he's lower usage.

I'd almost prefer Yves Missi to Sarr bc he's just been a better basketball player bc he hasn't been asked (or wanted to) do everything. His usage is even lower than Wells so he kinda has a case like Walker Kessler two years back where the candidacy is based only on defense, rim running, and rebounding. Based on historical voting, I doubt he finishes higher than Sarr tho

[MoneyTalks41890]

All you have to do is look at how EPM is calculated and look at Edey's role and how good the Grizzlies are and you can figure out why he's a positive in that stat. It tells you nothing. Nobody voting for ROY is going to care whether Edey is leading EPM or not when he's barely playing 20mpg

The all-in-one stats are great until people start taking them out of context to say "x player is good look at his EPM". Luke Kornet is a +1.1 in EPM. What does that tell you?

The Cavs have 7 players 87th percentile EPM and above. Do the Cavs have 7 elite NBA players or are they just a really good team?

I’m not using it to say he should get ROY. But it’s better for standardizing than the eye test.

It’s flawed like anything. But its nonetheless a relevant data point for how a player is playing, if you look at and understand how it’s calculated. If it’s just measuring team what’s your answer for the differences with Wells? What measure to you propose instead?

[jasonxxx102]

All you have to do is look at how EPM is calculated and look at Edey's role and how good the Grizzlies are and you can figure out why he's a positive in that stat. It tells you nothing. Nobody voting for ROY is going to care whether Edey is leading EPM or not when he's barely playing 20mpg

The all-in-one stats are great until people start taking them out of context to say "x player is good look at his EPM". Luke Kornet is a +1.1 in EPM. What does that tell you?

The Cavs have 7 players 87th percentile EPM and above. Do the Cavs have 7 elite NBA players or are they just a really good team?

I’m not using it to say he should get ROY. But it’s better for standardizing than the eye test.

It’s flawed like anything. But its nonetheless a relevant data point for how a player is playing, if you look at and understand how it’s calculated. If it’s just measuring team what’s your answer for the differences with Wells? What measure to you propose instead?

It shouldn’t be used as a stand alone measure of how good a player is at all.

It rewards efficient players on good teams, which is why backup bigs are basically always positive in this stat.

Luke Kornet is a 1.1 in EPM and Bam is a 0.4. The only thing that will tell you is how the player is performing relative to themselves (past self) and relative to their team.

In the case of wells vs edey, what do you think is more valuable over the long term… efficient but low volume post scoring or less efficient but higher volume, versatile shot creation?

It’s not better than the eye test because it assumes low volume high efficiency scales and we know that it doesn’t. There are diminishing returns with Edey and his skills don’t scale without your team just being bad

[ijspeelman]

Its pretty telling that the Grizzlies trust Wells to guard the other team's best guard or forward

[Dacost]

Its pretty telling that the Grizzlies trust Wells to guard the other team's best guard or forward

That's super surprising to me I remember he held Curry to 0 FG in 24 minutes early in the year.

I know ROY is almost always about stats but this dude is a two way player

[SkyBill40]

Dunn and Ighodoro actively working to save our trash season. Couldn't be happier about their output and impact on this team. Just thankful Budenholzer is actually playing them because Vogel, if he were still around, likely wouldn't.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Collier haters seething after he was finally given the green light and put up 23-7-7 plus the game-winner

[PlatinumState]

Collier just might have a good nba future. I always thought he was a good pick at 29. Worth the risk. At one time I remember he was top 3 on mock draft boards, so was Cody Williams

[Jadoogar]

Its pretty telling that the Grizzlies trust Wells to guard the other team's best guard or forward

That's super surprising to me I remember he held Curry to 0 FG in 24 minutes early in the year.

I know ROY is almost always about stats but this dude is a two way player

thing is, no one is putting up good counting stats so might as well give it to the guy that's contributing to winning

[jasonxxx102]

Collier just might have a good nba future. I always thought he was a good pick at 29. Worth the risk. At one time I remember he was top 3 on mock draft boards, so was Cody Williams

Cody Williams has been terrible. The guy legit doesn't look like an NBA player.

[rate_]

Might be the best rookie in this draft class.

[jasonxxx102]

Might be the best rookie in this draft class.

Kel'el is the most talented big in this class by a long shot.

The issue I have with him is that I'm not really sure the BBIQ upside is there. I don't really see a lot of high level basketball instincts. He's incredibly athletic, has a solid offensive and defensive game, but the "extra" stuff that makes great players I haven't seen yet.

I hope he can develop some good on and off court habits being in Miami so he can maximize that talent.

[brackdan70]

All you have to do is look at how EPM is calculated and look at Edey's role and how good the Grizzlies are and you can figure out why he's a positive in that stat. It tells you nothing. Nobody voting for ROY is going to care whether Edey is leading EPM or not when he's barely playing 20mpg

The all-in-one stats are great until people start taking them out of context to say "x player is good look at his EPM". Luke Kornet is a +1.1 in EPM. What does that tell you?

The Cavs have 7 players 87th percentile EPM and above. Do the Cavs have 7 elite NBA players or are they just a really good team?

Yeah EPM and these type of metrics should be used to compare like players. Starters to starters. Role players to role players, bench to bench. Having a positive EPM is a good thing but it doesn’t mean Kornet ( who is a good deep bench player) is better than Horford ( who plays twice as many minutes )