SGA has more Win Shares than Luka

[Raps in 4]

This article is complete nonsense. This is the problem with people who are purely analytical and not eye test guys

It's not. It's a classic case of misinterpreting data. Looking at the analytics properly will tell you that Luka is an undisputed top-5 player.

[aliasxn]

If this is true it's another proof that analytics is ruining the game, Luka just took them to the finals ffs

[Raps in 4]

If this is true it's another proof that analytics is ruining the game, Luka just took them to the finals ffs

This is proof that being a good shoe salesman (debatable) doesn't make someone a good data scientist. Nico Harrison should never have been an NBA GM. The blame for that lies with Cuban.

[The Master]

I think most people defaulted to putting Luka as that top 3-5 guy consistently because the #s were so eye popping, the winning was present, but I want to ask you a very legitimate question, and you need to actually think hard about it. Would you rather have Luka Doncic or Jayson Tatum? The correct answer, for those that watch basketball, is Jayson Tatum.

Why Jayson Tatum? Well it goes back to win share and what it truly says about a player. One thing that gets ignored in the WS stat is the DWS vs. OWS. I think that the bias and breakdown here is very telling of how easy a player is to build around. A player that has a more balanced DWS and OWS where the #s are maybe 60/40 (which is what Tatum has) is INFINITELY easier to build a contender around than a player that has a heavily biased OWS with a much lesser DWS (which is what Luka has). Tatum in his prime gives about 10.5 WS consistently now for 2 years and this year he's on pace for about 11 WS. Luka is actually comparable. Last year with his insane usage and minutes he gave 12 WS and before that it was about 10.5. Now WS/48 does break it down to the minutes each player plays, and Luka does lead Tatum in that regard in the regular season, but as soon as the playoffs come around Luka's winning impact seems to drop and he's playing on Tatum's level. The difference here, though, is that Tatum is a true two way player. It makes it easier to win with Jayson Tatum in the playoffs and therefore makes it much more enticing to keep Tatum over Luka.

WS is a pretty bad way to compare players. Domantas Sabonis has been ranked 4th, 3rd and 2nd in the last three seasons in Win Shares. Do you believe that he's the perennial MVP candidate?

Actually, last year was the first year in which Doncic, his advanced stats and team results were on par with his reputation.

+9.4 on/off in regular season (career high)
+7.0 on/off in the playoffs (2nd best result)
50W (2nd best result)
9.9 BPM (career high)
NBA finals (career high)
3rd in EPM (career high)

In the past, it was frequently mentioned against Luka that his advanced stats aren't on par with him being a top5 player - but last season was literally his by far the best year in this regard.

If this is true it's another proof that analytics is ruining the game, Luka just took them to the finals ffs

It's a proof that statistics are subjective in this sense that there's always interpretation part no matter how objective you want to these stats make. And this is where OP failed.

[dhsilv2]

Why Jayson Tatum? Well it goes back to win share and what it truly says about a player. One thing that gets ignored in the WS stat is the DWS vs. OWS.

DWS is literally WS-OWS....you know this right? It doesn't measure the player's defense in any meaningful way.

[Exp0sed]

yes, I think that's a fair take. we have our very own dedicated poster in the forum which has been arguing for years about Luka's pedestrian advanced stats.I think the only way a deal like this would even have been concieved is the result of analytically driven voices (or voice?) in the Dallas organization making those same claims and obviously - those voices have found an ear in Nico

Luka had better EPM (PBP dominated advanced stat) and BPM (cumulative advanced stat) than SGA last year and beat him in the PO, no one before the series started was saying Luka should win because he had better supporting cast, OKC were heavy favourites.
The mental gymnastics used in this thread to discredit hm aren't new though, but htey are pretty unique to a player with his level of success, individually and on team level.

I think u missed understood my post, i'll clarify:

I didn't say that personally I think that take is true, I don't and it's a horrendous trade. what I said was, I think the only way this comes about is through an analtyically driven agenda. that's what I meant by "fair take", that I think it represents what actually went down and the thought process of Nico and some in the Mavs organization

personally I think it's hogwash

[jasonxxx102]

This article is complete nonsense. This is the problem with people who are purely analytical and not eye test guys

It's not. It's a classic case of misinterpreting data. Looking at the analytics properly will tell you that Luka is an undisputed top-5 player.

Yea sorry but if you need analytics to tell you whether Luka is a top 5 player or not... you probably should follow a different sport.

[jasonxxx102]

Why Jayson Tatum? Well it goes back to win share and what it truly says about a player. One thing that gets ignored in the WS stat is the DWS vs. OWS.

DWS is literally WS-OWS....you know this right? It doesn't measure the player's defense in any meaningful way.

Any time you see someone unironically reference win shares you can safely disregard the entire post. Easily one of the worst advanced analytics available

[Mavrelous]

yes, I think that's a fair take. we have our very own dedicated poster in the forum which has been arguing for years about Luka's pedestrian advanced stats.I think the only way a deal like this would even have been concieved is the result of analytically driven voices (or voice?) in the Dallas organization making those same claims and obviously - those voices have found an ear in Nico

Luka had better EPM (PBP dominated advanced stat) and BPM (cumulative advanced stat) than SGA last year and beat him in the PO, no one before the series started was saying Luka should win because he had better supporting cast, OKC were heavy favourites.
The mental gymnastics used in this thread to discredit hm aren't new though, but htey are pretty unique to a player with his level of success, individually and on team level.

I think u missed understood my post, i'll clarify:

I didn't say that personally I think that take is true, I don't and it's a horrendous trade. what I said was, I think the only way this comes about is through an analtyically driven agenda. that's what I meant by "fair take", that I think it represents what actually went down and the thought process of Nico and some in the Mavs organization

personally I think it's hogwash

What I specifically disagree with is the claim that Luka's advanced stats are pedestrian, they aren't, they are elite, one specific stat is pedestrian, on/off, and there is a perfect explanation for it, but the explanation is always ignored and people insist on discrediting him for it.

[Raps in 4]

This article is complete nonsense. This is the problem with people who are purely analytical and not eye test guys

It's not. It's a classic case of misinterpreting data. Looking at the analytics properly will tell you that Luka is an undisputed top-5 player.

Yea sorry but if you need analytics to tell you whether Luka is a top 5 player or not... you probably should follow a different sport.

Your eyes can deceive you. Numbers are objective.

[Raps in 4]

Luka had better EPM (PBP dominated advanced stat) and BPM (cumulative advanced stat) than SGA last year and beat him in the PO, no one before the series started was saying Luka should win because he had better supporting cast, OKC were heavy favourites.
The mental gymnastics used in this thread to discredit hm aren't new though, but htey are pretty unique to a player with his level of success, individually and on team level.

I think u missed understood my post, i'll clarify:

I didn't say that personally I think that take is true, I don't and it's a horrendous trade. what I said was, I think the only way this comes about is through an analtyically driven agenda. that's what I meant by "fair take", that I think it represents what actually went down and the thought process of Nico and some in the Mavs organization

personally I think it's hogwash

What I specifically disagree with is the claim that Luka's advanced stats are pedestrian, they aren't, they are elite, one specific stat is pedestrian, on/off, and there is a perfect explanation for it, but the explanation is always ignored and people insist on discrediting him for it.

On/off is an idiotic metric to use in isolation when evaluating a player.

[dhsilv2]

Why Jayson Tatum? Well it goes back to win share and what it truly says about a player. One thing that gets ignored in the WS stat is the DWS vs. OWS.

DWS is literally WS-OWS....you know this right? It doesn't measure the player's defense in any meaningful way.

Any time you see someone unironically reference win shares you can safely disregard the entire post. Easily one of the worst advanced analytics available

It does what it does. It's a metric with a huge TS% bias. If you want to see wins measured flatly and spread out vs giving more credit to stars and you want TS% to be your biggest driver. It's fine.

When people start talking DWS and OWS...well it's time to stop taking them seriously.

[jasonxxx102]

It's not. It's a classic case of misinterpreting data. Looking at the analytics properly will tell you that Luka is an undisputed top-5 player.

Yea sorry but if you need analytics to tell you whether Luka is a top 5 player or not... you probably should follow a different sport.

Your eyes can deceive you. Numbers are objective.

Analytics only confirm what your eyes see. If you see something different than what the stats show you, you don't understand what you are watching

[Raps in 4]

Yea sorry but if you need analytics to tell you whether Luka is a top 5 player or not... you probably should follow a different sport.

Your eyes can deceive you. Numbers are objective.

Analytics only confirm what your eyes see. If you see something different than what the stats show you, you don't understand what you are watching

Sure, but analytics are an important part of making an informed decision. Good executives use them extensively.

[The Master]

What I specifically disagree with is the claim that Luka's advanced stats are pedestrian, they aren't, they are elite, one specific stat is pedestrian, on/off, and there is a perfect explanation for it, but the explanation is always ignored and people insist on discrediting him for it.

... and that's not even a case recently, Luka was +9.4 last year in/off and this season he's +11.0.

Any time you see someone unironically reference win shares you can safely disregard the entire post. Easily one of the worst advanced analytics available

Yeah, Sabonis, Allen and Hart are 3rd-6th best players in WS this year, Wembanyama is 50th.

Let's wait what happens when Spurs FO finds out.

[jasonxxx102]

DWS is literally WS-OWS....you know this right? It doesn't measure the player's defense in any meaningful way.

Any time you see someone unironically reference win shares you can safely disregard the entire post. Easily one of the worst advanced analytics available

It does what it does. It's a metric with a huge TS% bias. If you want to see wins measured flatly and spread out vs giving more credit to stars and you want TS% to be your biggest driver. It's fine.

When people start talking DWS and OWS...well it's time to stop taking them seriously.

I agree that it does what it does but 90% of people don't understand it anyways

[jasonxxx102]

Your eyes can deceive you. Numbers are objective.

Analytics only confirm what your eyes see. If you see something different than what the stats show you, you don't understand what you are watching

Sure, but analytics are an important part of making an informed decision. Good executives use them extensively.

I never said they weren't. I am saying the people who only look at the analytics generally make bad decisions

There are lots of analytics that are great. Even some of the AIO metrics are pretty good (notably EPM and DPM), but they still don't actually tell you anything meaningful

[Ssj16]

SGA has only been better than Luka this year because Luka has hardly played.

But until SGA can take his team to finals or ball out consistently in the playoffs, he's still not better than Luka.

I personally have disdain for advanced stats because when a player is as great as Luka the proof is in the pudding. He takes garbage teams deep in the playoffs and good teams to the finals.

Advanced stats should be used to distinguish role players or look at "stars" who consistently fail in the playoffs.

And lol at Tatum being better than Luka. We're referring to the same Tatum who can't win Finals MVP on his own team?

[hardenASG13]

SGA is a better player than Luka, but just because your guy isn't a top-2 player doesn't mean you trade him for peanuts. He's a top-5 player, and players like that don't grow on trees. He's certainly a more productive player than AD was in his prime, let alone AD at age 32.

SGA I having a better season indeed, I wouldn't say it is better, because I still consider SGA is not capable to do what Luka did last season, RS and PO's

The Thunder were so close to beating Dallas last year. SGA wasn't the problem, either (aside from his foul on the PJ 3). But that one play very well might have cost the Thunder a home game 7, and potentially a finals appearance (i think OKC wouldve beat Minnesota too). Luka is up there with anyone currently as to who you'd want in a playoff series, but i think SGA has reached that point as well.

[dhsilv2]

SGA has only been better than Luka this year because Luka has hardly played.

But until SGA can take his team to finals or ball out consistently in the playoffs, he's still not better than Luka.

The WS comment was career. That said VORP shows Luka with a comfortable lead still career. And the WS's are nearly identical and SGA is only leading career due to this year.