If you feel the Pacers are going to beat the Thunder...

[dhsilv2]

OKC closes out better than anyone I've ever seen. If the pacers get hot, they'll adjust. Pacers will have to solve 4-5 different defensive looks if they're going to win this. It's a tall order but nothing is impossible.

Also OKC in 5.

I think one of the biggest reasons why Denver managed to beat them 3 times was that OKC struggled as a whole shooting 32% from 3 the whole series.
Chet shot 22%,
JDub under 24%
Dort under 29%
Both Shai and Joe, 33.3%.

For how good OKC supposedly is, I just do not have faith when Chet or WIlliams shoot the ball. Maybe thats just me and numbers would disprove that, but thats how I feel watching them. And those are their two other guys beside SGA. SGA got his MVP so he was ultimately recognized, but I feel some fans did not recognize what a carry job SGA did this year, Some people who argue Luka is better act that Luka would cure cancer with this Thunder team, like it is some kind of monstars squad. SGA supporting cast while great defensively, still leaves some to be desired, some kind of superteam it aint, I do not think. In two years, maybe they will be that, but now, team definitely has some real flaws.

They are still great tho, they are better than others in a way, they do not even need a good shooting night to win a game.

The thing is, they don't win from their offense. I keep seeing this idea over and over about people not trusting the offense. But that's not why they're the best team.

Until someone shows they can beat OKC's defense, their offense just has to be decent.

[CoP]

I think the Thunder will likely win (even though I voted Pacers in 7 in the series thread poll out of hope more than anything). The Thunder are rightly favored and it would be a huge upset if they lost. But there are reasons to believe that the Pacers could win.

1) They beat a 64-win team in 5 games, so beating a 68-win team in 7 is not impossible

2) Denver took OKC to 7 games with both Jokic and Murray shooting poorly, so why can't the Pacers take them to 7?

3) OKC depends on getting a lot of turnovers that translate to more opportunities on offense. The Pacers don't turn it over much. If the Pacers keep their turnovers down for the series, they'll be competitive in most if not all games. And they've been very, very good in tight games.

4) OKC's role players have been very inconsistent on offense, particularly from 3. Jdub 32% vs. Nembhard 48%, Dort 30% vs. Nesmith 50%, Holmgren 33% vs. Siakam 46%, Hart doesn't shoot 3s vs. Turner 40%. The argument against this, the one that I'd make, is that the Pacers are due to cool down to their season averages. But sometimes a team just goes on a heater, and the Pacers are brimming with confidence right now. The other argument against this - and probably the better one - is that OKC has the best perimeter defense in the league.

Three keys to the series for me: How well OKC's role players shoot the ball, how well the Pacers shoot from 3 vs. one of the best 3-point defending teams in the league, and how much the Pacers turn it over. If I had to add a 4th, it would be the Pacers' transition offense off both misses and makes vs. OKC's stellar transition defense.

[Hangtime84]

OKC's offense is highly dependent on generating turnovers and scoring on the break. Indy is 2nd best in the league in A/TO ratio, and 3rd best in the league in avoiding turnovers overall. If Indy can take care of the ball and hit 3's, they can stay in it.

This why I’m excited to see it

[ryan in Maine]

I saw it in their eyes.

[benhillboy]

If the Pacers win it will definitely be on the back of much better three point shooting. Everything else they excel at (boxing out, trapping, pushing pace, ball security, commanding the elbows, chemistry) OKC does as well. No clear and numerous advantages like they had over NY.

Meanwhile OKC has a historic defense and thus point differential and the league’s leading scorer and MVP. Tough mountain for Indy to climb but even in defeat they’re an insanely fun team to watch.

[benhillboy]

I saw it in their eyes.

It does seem like Nembhard is being possessed by the Basketball Gods sometimes. He’d probably sell his soul to shoot 56/48/83 in the Finals like he did last playoffs.

[flow]

For all the advantages OKC has over Indy, they are at a deficit in two areas for the first time this playoffs-

1. coaching
2. depth

.

[jkvonny]

I think the Thunder wins in 6.
But wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers pulls the upset.
The Pacers are incredibly deep (one of the best bench in the league), healthy, experienced/battle tested/made deep playoff runs the past 2 seasons, well coached (HOFer Carlisle with championship experience), disciplined, high octane offense, etc. Solid starting 5. Hali and Siakim (also has championship experience) are their star players.

OKC is younger (players and coach) can have brain farts at times, but they have the overwhelming better overall talent. Should win this series.

It's going to be a good series IMO.

[ForeverTFC]

I don't think the Pacers stand a chance, but the blueprint (barring major injuries) is clear to me:
1. Take care of the ball and limit turnovers
2. Take and hit 3s at a very high clip
3. Force the Thunder to go small to give Siakam space in the paint
4. Play zone and load the paint to contain SGA, hope the rest of OKC's roster shoots like they did against Denver and not Minny

That's a lot to ask of a team for at least 4 out of 7 games, and even then it may not be enough because SGA is special enough to beat you by himself in one of these games where everything is going right.

[benhillboy]

For all the advantages OKC has over Indy, they are at a deficit in two areas for the first time this playoffs-

1. coaching
2. depth

.

Everyone agrees with 1, but I can’t on 2.
OKCs 9th man in these playoffs (Joe) leads the playoffs in 2 point shooting percentage (77%) and can win a playoff game with how well-respected of a pure shooter he is from deep. I’ve seen plenty of games where he shot poorly or didn’t shoot much at all and still finished +10 with the space and concern for the defense he creates with his underrated movement.

They were right there in lockstep with the Pacers, Cavs, and Grizzlies all season in terms of kicking butt with end-of-rotation guys.

[jkvonny]

Maybe Pacers get very hot from corners? OKC defends on ball players crazy well, forces turnovers, but gives up corners to a point. So hey, 3 point variance is a possibility. Sometimes, Chet and J-dubb just can't hit jumpers at all, so here you go, it is a long shot, but get hot in 4 games, its possible.

OKC closes out better than anyone I've ever seen. If the pacers get hot, they'll adjust. Pacers will have to solve 4-5 different defensive looks if they're going to win this. It's a tall order but nothing is impossible.

Also OKC in 5.

I think one of the biggest reasons why Denver managed to beat them 3 times was that OKC struggled as a whole shooting 32% from 3 the whole series.
Chet shot 22%,
JDub under 24%
Dort under 29%
Both Shai and Joe, 33.3%.

And also, the brainfart from the players and coach in Game 1.

[Raps in 4]

- The Pacers playstyle is difficult to defend against
- They have a deep team
- Siakam and Turner have more experience than anyone on OKC
- Carlisle is one of the best playoff coaches of all time

[bbms]

For all the advantages OKC has over Indy, they are at a deficit in two areas for the first time this playoffs-

1. coaching
2. depth

.

you guys are serious thinking you can bring 6'0" tj mcconnell vs sga, dort, cason and caruso?

[flow]

For all the advantages OKC has over Indy, they are at a deficit in two areas for the first time this playoffs-

1. coaching
2. depth

.

Everyone agrees with 1, but I can’t on 2.
OKCs 9th man in these playoffs (Joe) leads the playoffs in 2 point shooting percentage (77%) and is a well-respected pure shooter from deep. They were right there in lockstep with the Pacers, Cavs, and Grizzlies all season in terms of kicking butt with end-of-rotation guys.

I'll elaborate. I'm not comparing bench guys 1 v. 1. No doubt OKC has quality & shooting on the bench. I'm saying Indy goes 10-11 deep as part of their standard rotation. They sub in waves and stay fresh, both up front and in the back court, throughout the game with little drop-off. That's something OKC hasn't faced. They're used to wearing their opponent down and being the fresher team.

.

[Chuck Everett]

Who's to say the Thunder young players won't be nervous? They've won a lot of blowouts at home in the playoffs, but their losses on the road many of their younger players have looked a little skittish in crunch time. In fact, it happened in the first round against Memphis too, but the Grizz were ill-equipped to take advantage. Meanwhile, Indiana plays until the final buzzer. They also have been exceptional on the road in the playoffs (6-2).

TJ McConnell is actually a big x-factor in this series. Last year, he was excellent all playoffs, this year he's been up and down, but still takes care of the ball. I wonder how his bench minutes will go against the Thunder, especially when Chet is out of the game, because their rim protection is a lot different, even with Hartenstein on the back line. Will he be able to get into the lane for his midrange buckets and/or move the defense? Can't wait to find out.

[UcanUwill]

OKC closes out better than anyone I've ever seen. If the pacers get hot, they'll adjust. Pacers will have to solve 4-5 different defensive looks if they're going to win this. It's a tall order but nothing is impossible.

Also OKC in 5.

I think one of the biggest reasons why Denver managed to beat them 3 times was that OKC struggled as a whole shooting 32% from 3 the whole series.
Chet shot 22%,
JDub under 24%
Dort under 29%
Both Shai and Joe, 33.3%.

And also, the brainfart from the players and coach in Game 1.

And then coach used same exact tactic in conference finals. I have far more faith in Carlisle from coaching perspective.

[uncleoswald]

Nothing... sometimes people just think one team is better than the other.

It isn't complicated.

They are treating the pacers like a g league team lol

If I were a Pacers fan, I would have been so angered listening to the recent Bill Simmons Podcast. He and Russillo insinuated that it wasn’t worth “previewing” the Finals because the matchup was lopsided.

Like, we’ve been talking about the NBA season since Halloween! Why stop now!?

[GiannisAnte34]

I don’t think the Pacers can do it banged up as they are after the Knicks series. The Thunder having a cake walk against the TWolves for extra rest and coming into the Finals more healthy will be an overwhelming decider

[Karate Diop]

Haliburton has the personality and energy of a cheesey 90's sports hero. That's all the reason I need to believe in P-Town.

[jkvonny]

I think one of the biggest reasons why Denver managed to beat them 3 times was that OKC struggled as a whole shooting 32% from 3 the whole series.
Chet shot 22%,
JDub under 24%
Dort under 29%
Both Shai and Joe, 33.3%.

And also, the brainfart from the players and coach in Game 1.

And then coach used same exact tactic in conference finals. I have far more faith in Carlisle from coaching perspective.

Agrees. Indiana definitely has the coaching advantage.

Rick Carlisle is a future HOFer won a championship in 2011 with the Mavs. Great coach, very experienced. Good Pacers team.

OKC coach is young, up and coming, still learning. His time will come. He may win a Championship this year or next. His team is very good as well.

But from a coaching perspective? Rick Carlisle is the most reliable one.