Is it too early to worry about The Grizzlies?

[PistolPeteJR]

They still have a lot of players out with injuries.
If they get healthy they should be fine.

I’ve been hearing this for four seasons. When does it become, “it is what it is”?

[MMyhre]

Let's see how Morant looks. If he is back to 27 pts 8 ast ish numbers with efficiency improvements they can at least compete.

JJJ looked like a dead whale in his first game, he is not close to 100 %. So the defense will suffer until/if he recovers. Turf toe stuff worries me..

[tamaraw08]

I know so far they have been short-handed in the pre season but have looked really uncompetitive so far in many of their preseason games so far.

Desmond Bane looks like a bigger loss for The Grizz than many (like myself) assumed.

Now it's way too soon to write them off for the season, but i don't mind The Grizz and thei fans but I fear it could be a very long and painful season for them.

But I have been wrong before, and would be delighted if they prove me wrong..

ESPN's Kevin Pelton projected them to place 7th best in the West at 44.6 wins better than ESPN bet over/under 40.5 odds
I just don't know how they can compete without a legit scorer especially after losing Bane and his 19/6/5 .

[ShootersShoot]

Ja, JJJ, and a bunch of role players is an underwhelming core. Bane was a 20,6,5 player on 60% TS, 40% 3pt, and a plus defender.

[jowglenn]

I'm getting late Mitchell/Gobert Jazz vibes from them. The team has been plugging along, putting up 50ish wins (save for the one bad injury season) but if it never leads anywhere... what's the point?

Now I'm not saying they should follow the Jazz's lead and tear it down and be awful for a couple years or whatever. But clearly they also felt the malaise - fired the coach, then traded Bane - and maybe that gives them a new look or something.

But just like the Jazz were based on the Mitchell/Gobert core, this Memphis team is based on the Ja/JJJ core. How long can they hang on to it just to get bounced in the first round year after year?

[madskillz8]

It's preseason. More often than not, teams utilize these games to try new schemes / rotations, and I am not sure the preseason results correlates with teams' fate. For example, I found some data for Lakers, via lakersnation:

03-04: Preseason 3-5 --> Lost in Finals
04-05: Preseason 6-2 --> Missed Playoffs

19-20: Preseason 0-6 --> Champs*

Similarly, in 20-21 Suns and Bucks went 0-4 and 0-3 in the preseason, respectively. They both made the Finals.

[dballislife]

the grizz aint fine since the west teams got even better, meanwhile they got worse and their best players are injury prone

[pepe1991]

Ja, JJJ, and a bunch of role players is an underwhelming core. Bane was a 20,6,5 player on 60% TS, 40% 3pt, and a plus defender.

They knew that ceiling of that core is second round on West.

They made a trade because of draft haul they will collect, starting with Suns pick in 2026, especially if Wizards play themself out of pick protection.

[bkkrh]

They are pretty much the young counterpart to the Clippers and Warriors. For those 2 teams the question how much their old stars still have left in the tank.

For the Grizzlies on the other side:

- Does Ja or JJJ finally make the step towards being a clear franchise player
- Is at least one of Jaylen Wells, Scotty Pippen Jr., Zach Edey, Santi Aldana, Brandon Clarke or Ty Jerome ready for a bigger role

Think it´s too early to worry, just based on the depth of the roster. They have a lot of young players and a lot of new players, so they probably need some time to really figure their rotation out. Atm pretty much every player on their roster has the potential to be a rotation player for them.

On top of that they also have a solid amount of draft picks, so I wouldn´t also be surprised if they are involved in a big trade during the season and are a competely different team around the deadline. They definitely could create some interesting trade packages built around their young players and some of their future 1st and 2nd rounders.

[cupcakesnake]

If the question "Is it too early?" comes up in preseason, the answer is automatically: yes.

It would be crazy if they had another injury decimated year. This teams never has never made it to the playoffs with a healthy frontcourt and a healthy Ja.

If the health problems for away a couple weeks into the season, I think I'm higher on the Grizz than most. They have a pretty easy pathway to being top 10 on both sides of the ball. People got too low on them after a badly timed late season collapse. The Grizzlies have been a 50-win team when healthy every year.

Sure, but they’re a significantly different team this year without Bane.

Losing Bane is a blow to their offense, but the Bane minutes going to defensive guys (KCP, Vincent Williams, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward) eliminates Memphis' biggest defensive weakness: that tiny backcourt. I love Bane, but I never loved the Morant/Bane pairing, defensively. Bane works hard on defense but those tiny arms mean he's bringing the help defense of a much shorter guard.

This was the 6th ranked offense last year. There's no statistical evidence that Bane was integral to that offense in the regular season (118.1 Ortg on, 118.6 Ortg off). There is statistical evidence that he hurt their defense (5 points worse per 100 with Bane on the floor).

I think they're more likely to be a better defense this year than they are to be a worse offense.

The Grizzlies have been a regular season machine for years now. I get that things ended ugly last year, but I think people are over-indexing on that pretty hard.

[Wolveswin]

Morant/Clarke

FOR

Tatum/Filler

Staring everyone in the face.

Celtics become more legit in a weakened East.

Grizzlies tank for a season. All-in trade next season for a disgruntled star.

[Dacost]

Grizzlies have made it clear that they are on a rebuild.

If Ja gets injured again I bet they move on from him and won't extend him.

My expectation is a bottom 7 team in the NBA because of the injurys they will eventually suffer like they always do.

[redslastlaugh]

Their lottery pick, who they gave up a lot to move up for, hasn't looked like he can make a jumpshot.

If Cedric Coward comes around, that'll help a lot. If Coward got a small sample size bump from only playing 6 games in college last season and the Grizzlies just reached to overdraft a mirage type of talent that isn't really there, then Griz are in some trouble. I think Coward is still gonna turn out good though

I know so far they have been short-handed in the pre season but have looked really uncompetitive so far in many of their preseason games so far.

Desmond Bane looks like a bigger loss for The Grizz than many (like myself) assumed.

Now it's way too soon to write them off for the season, but i don't mind The Grizz and thei fans but I fear it could be a very long and painful season for them.

But I have been wrong before, and would be delighted if they prove me wrong..

[RoyceDa59]

Memphis is lotto bound.

[PistolPeteJR]

If the question "Is it too early?" comes up in preseason, the answer is automatically: yes.

It would be crazy if they had another injury decimated year. This teams never has never made it to the playoffs with a healthy frontcourt and a healthy Ja.

If the health problems for away a couple weeks into the season, I think I'm higher on the Grizz than most. They have a pretty easy pathway to being top 10 on both sides of the ball. People got too low on them after a badly timed late season collapse. The Grizzlies have been a 50-win team when healthy every year.

Sure, but they’re a significantly different team this year without Bane.

Losing Bane is a blow to their offense, but the Bane minutes going to defensive guys (KCP, Vincent Williams, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward) eliminates Memphis' biggest defensive weakness: that tiny backcourt. I love Bane, but I never loved the Morant/Bane pairing, defensively. Bane works hard on defense but those tiny arms mean he's bringing the help defense of a much shorter guard.

This was the 6th ranked offense last year. There's no statistical evidence that Bane was integral to that offense in the regular season (118.1 Ortg on, 118.6 Ortg off). There is statistical evidence that he hurt their defense (5 points worse per 100 with Bane on the floor).

I think they're more likely to be a better defense this year than they are to be a worse offense.

The Grizzlies have been a regular season machine for years now. I get that things ended ugly last year, but I think people are over-indexing on that pretty hard.

I hear what you’re saying and there’s merit to that. But I think what people are tired of with this team is exactly what you’ve mentioned in your last paragraph: they’re a regular season team that haven’t done anything in the playoffs, regardless of whether it’s primarily due to injuries or not. In the public’s eyes, they’re fake news until proven otherwise, and given they just lost the healthiest and best backcourt player they’ve had next to Ja for a number of seasons now, people are highly skeptical.

[DoubleLintendre]

Anecdotal/eye test-- Bane was like the best (offensive) player on their team whenever I saw him play. He's not on the team anymore. I don't see them replicating his role by committee. Lottery team unless Morant goes super saiyan during the regular season.

[GrindCityHustle]

Memphis is lotto bound.

The Bane trade pretty much cemented it I believe. Our best chance was in the Dillon Brooks era but we have regressed since then. We were also kicked out of the first round in convincing fashion by OKC.

Probably going to blow it up in February and keep JJJ GG and Pippen. I believe they are waiting for the best Morant trade scenario

[cupcakesnake]

Sure, but they’re a significantly different team this year without Bane.

Losing Bane is a blow to their offense, but the Bane minutes going to defensive guys (KCP, Vincent Williams, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward) eliminates Memphis' biggest defensive weakness: that tiny backcourt. I love Bane, but I never loved the Morant/Bane pairing, defensively. Bane works hard on defense but those tiny arms mean he's bringing the help defense of a much shorter guard.

This was the 6th ranked offense last year. There's no statistical evidence that Bane was integral to that offense in the regular season (118.1 Ortg on, 118.6 Ortg off). There is statistical evidence that he hurt their defense (5 points worse per 100 with Bane on the floor).

I think they're more likely to be a better defense this year than they are to be a worse offense.

The Grizzlies have been a regular season machine for years now. I get that things ended ugly last year, but I think people are over-indexing on that pretty hard.

I hear what you’re saying and there’s merit to that. But I think what people are tired of with this team is exactly what you’ve mentioned in your last paragraph: they’re a regular season team that haven’t done anything in the playoffs, regardless of whether it’s primarily due to injuries or not. In the public’s eyes, they’re fake news until proven otherwise, and given they just lost the healthiest and best backcourt player they’ve had next to Ja for a number of seasons now, people are highly skeptical.

No disagreements on the playoffs. Something would need to change in Memphis before any of us believe they have a chance of winning a playoff series against any quality opponent. Even if some of their young guys pop, I don't think anyone would/should believe in the Grizz until their best players are better than Ja and Trip.

What I don't understand is how casually they're getting projected as a 40-win team. To me, they clearly look to still have the tools to be a strong 2-way, regular season performer, and win 47-52 games. They're like the pre-Kawhi Raptors right now.

[Zukkoyaki]

First round ceiling imo.

[doogie_hauser]

[quote="cupcakesnake"][quote="PistolPeteJR"][quote="cupcakesnake"]

Losing Bane is a blow to their offense, but the Bane minutes going to defensive guys (KCP, Vincent Williams, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward) eliminates Memphis' biggest defensive weakness: that tiny backcourt. I love Bane, but I never loved the Morant/Bane pairing, defensively. Bane works hard on defense but those tiny arms mean he's bringing the help defense of a much shorter guard.

This was the 6th ranked offense last year. There's no statistical evidence that Bane was integral to that offense in the regular season (118.1 Ortg on, 118.6 Ortg off). There is statistical evidence that he hurt their defense (5 points worse per 100 with Bane on the floor).

I think they're more likely to be a better defense this year than they are to be a worse offense.

The Grizzlies have been a regular season machine for years now. I get that things ended ugly last year, but I think people are over-indexing on that pretty hard.[/quote]

I hear what you’re saying and there’s merit to that. But I think what people are tired of with this team is exactly what you’ve mentioned in your last paragraph: they’re a regular season team that haven’t done anything in the playoffs, regardless of whether it’s primarily due to injuries or not. In the public’s eyes, they’re fake news until proven otherwise, and given they just lost the healthiest and best backcourt player they’ve had next to Ja for a number of seasons now, people are highly skeptical.[/quote]

No disagreements on the playoffs. Something would need to change in Memphis before any of us believe they have a chance of winning a playoff series against any quality opponent. Even if some of their young guys pop, I don't think anyone would/should believe in the Grizz until their best players are better than Ja and Trip.

What I don't understand is how casually they're getting projected as a 40-win team. To me, they clearly look to still have the tools to be a strong 2-way, regular season performer, and win 47-52 games. They're like the pre-Kawhi Raptors right now.[/quote]

I personally believe the Grizz Front Office naively pushed all their chips (incorrectly but understanable) on JA staying healthy and getting over all his troublesome off court issue, I feel like he is almost a borderline sunk asset at this point, and Memphis should have traded him a couple of years ago, when his stock was at its highest.

It's easy to forget the human/fan supporter element in these type of discussions though.

However i don't think they have enough talent/scoring punch to win as many games as you suggest

I am no expert or anything but I think 35-40 wins is what i expect from The Grizz this season (and that's an optimistic projection)

I can foresee potentially a nightmare season for The Grizz and JA traded around the all star break deadline