Which Big 3 West Team Will Decline First?

[NapoleonII]

Suns = nash 33
Spurs = Duncan 32
Mavs = Nowitzki (LOSER)

all 3 have no big future, only this year and next year.

[rsavaj]

Probably PHX...Nash has to start declining sometime, right?

Hopefully Amare's continued growth will be able to compensate for that a little...

[a-rod]

suns-oldest team in the nba
spurs-2ed oldest team in the nba
mavs-not anytime soon

[realfung]

I think the Dallas is will fall soon....
They don't have much time, and Drik is almost out of gas.

[Zerostatic]

apparently some people in this thread aren't considering how good the Spurs management is..

Well, when an all-time great falls into your lap through blind luck, it's easy to look smart. Other players take paycuts to join your team, you have the ability to take more risks on draft picks, all of your players get over-rated due to that one great.

And if you don't believe that, just look at almost any dynasty in NBA history, you'll find a long list of guys who were bums or mediocre then go to play with the dynasty team and all of sudden are considered good, quality players and when the time comes that they have to leave they revert back to bum status and usually are overpaid because teams think they are better then they really are. Since we're talking about the spurs, I'll give you a few relevant examples .... Derek Anderson, Malik Rose, and Rasho Nesterovic. These guys were way overhyped when the played with the spurs and got exposed when they left. I still remember when Derek Anderson was the Spurs 2nd leading scorer one season and some people were even saying he should make the all-star team. Rasho was considered a good center when he played with the Spurs got a big contract with Minny and bombed, and now he plays like 17 minutes a game for Toronto. Malik Rose can't even get off the Knicks bench.

Learn from history. Something tells that when Duncan moves on, opinions about guys like Bowen (people that over-rate him make me laugh he was a scrub before playing with Duncan, do you think he magically turned became more talented), and even Manu and Parker are going to go down big time. All these great pick-ups that the Spurs managed to acquire are not going to look so great anymore. Just watch, I've seen this a million times. Remember Damon Jones? I knew he was going to be a bust when he signed with Cleveland and people didn't believe me then. The dude was a mediocre player who was a below average shooter. He plays one season with Shaq and now all of a sudden his shooting percentages and scoring jump up like crazy, and people were really dumb enough to believe that he was something more then just a mediocre player playing next to a dominant big-man.

[thaAteam]

its clearly the phoenix suns, their gm is cheap as owner is cheap as hell, nash will wear down and marion will opt out. amare is good but he isnt dominate without the pick and roll game nash brings and they still have diaw who besides rashard lewis and ben wallace has one of the worst contracts in the nba

[farzi]

Mavs

[studcrackers]

i love your avy farzi (but i dont like your answer)

id say the suns but mainly b/c of the owner, people have expected nash to decline for awhile, maybe he can have a stockton type career, ive been thinking he'll decline for awhile but now i'll just wait til it starts to happen.

does marion have the option to opt out this year or what?

[Ballings7]

Phoenix doesn't have enough versatility, depth in their roster and style, and their ownership is strict. D'Antoni as coach has his philosophy and biases, but certain parts aren't going to work unless he tweaks the necessary areas. Could be gone next season, also. Nash I think will still be a star player as long as his health stays fair, and his minutes are managed enough. Marion may well be gone after this season, but if he stays around, okay. Amare's there, but he's not a great big man, a quality scoring big man, yes. Tucker and Strawberry are definitely both nice wing-prospects, Phoenix must be grateful to have those two with the wing situation being kinda iffy. Both those guys need to get in the rotation at least semi-regularily next year, and in there all the time in the third year. The Atlanta pick probably won't be as high as they thought it would, but should still get a solid prospect. It should probably be a big man, too. One that is not offensively-lenient. Bottom line, Phoenix needs to get more balanced, regardless of how it's done (in the time amount) and who's the coach.

San Antonio's management of money and players, Tim Duncan just in his early 30s (31), Manu at 29/30, Parker at 25, young athletic big men Mahinmi and Splitter on the rise within the next two years, various FA replacements for a few role-players, Matt Bonner as a nice role-player (26 years old), Popovich staying around, Bowen around for at least two more years with no signs of significant slowing down (this is attributed to Bruce's conditioning and low risk style of play), Udoka coming in at 30 as a solid role-player so far, draft picks, and Tim Duncan leaving 11 million dollars on the table for his 2-year extension - I'd say the Spurs are in good shape for awhile longer .

Dallas will be good for numerous years longer, too. They're the most young of all three teams. Only problem they've had is with Dirk not being able to get it done at some point in the playoffs, because his game can be limited effectively enough with the right kinds of defense. Which is the main reason why Dallas hasn't succeeded, not Dirk "choking". That's happened here and there, but nearly as much as various teams being able to contain Dirk. When Dirk's not scoring well, his impact on the game lessens noticably, and the rest of the team can't quite make up for that. Which is why they should trade for another legit star to put with Dirk. Getting an effective low-post offensive presence in some form, would also help them.

So, I think Phoenix will decline first (excluding, god forbid, serious injuries).

[The NarrF]

Suns.
They don't seem to have any sort of plan for the post Nash years.

[Craig McDermott]

The answer is the Suns.
Nash is getting old... when Nash slows down, their entire offensive system will essentially collapse.

Suns collapse on themselves and become white dwarfs.

[Sub-Zero]

who cares who declines, Balzers wil rule the west in the next 8 years

[thaAteam]

yea, those BALZERS are going to be a force to recon with lol

[ss1986v2]

I'll give you a few relevant examples .... Derek Anderson, Malik Rose, and Rasho Nesterovic. These guys were way overhyped when the played with the spurs and got exposed when they left. I still remember when Derek Anderson was the Spurs 2nd leading scorer one season and some people were even saying he should make the all-star team. Rasho was considered a good center when he played with the Spurs got a big contract with Minny and bombed, and now he plays like 17 minutes a game for Toronto. Malik Rose can't even get off the Knicks bench.

not that i totally disagree with your basic argument, i have to make some corrections.

one, rasho didnt blow up with the spurs, he did it with minny. then the spurs signed him to his current contract, which was a good bit above his value. the spurs then pawned him off on toronto for a couple of expirings. you kind of got it backwards.

and as far as anderson, he was a solid player before he came to the spurs (16.9 ppg the year before he joined, which was his career high). and derek was never really the same player after he tore out his shoulder after a vicious foul by juwon howard in the play-offs with the spurs. subsequent knee (iirc) issues didnt help this out.

and malik was always a scrub. he got rewarded for being the hustle of the first championship team, but was soon out of the rotation and in pops doghouse for well over a year. it wasnt like he departed the spurs and turned to crap; he was crap long before they pawned him off on the knicks (which is where crappy contracts seem to always end up).

[UDRIH14]

-= original quote snipped =-
Since we're talking about the spurs, I'll give you a few relevant examples .... Derek Anderson, Malik Rose, and Rasho Nesterovic. These guys were way overhyped when the played with the spurs and got exposed when they left. I still remember when Derek Anderson was the Spurs 2nd leading scorer one season and some people were even saying he should make the all-star team. Rasho was considered a good center when he played with the Spurs got a big contract with Minny and bombed, and now he plays like 17 minutes a game for Toronto. Malik Rose can't even get off the Knicks bench.

Derek Anderson...mr loyalty wasnt loyal at all when the spurs low balled him and he left....

Malik rose got paid due to 03 campaign and decline after that

rasho, yeh sure his contract was overpaid what the spurs offered, but if you look at that years FA market, bigs were getting overpaid and the spurs did what they had to do, and they weren't expecting much production from rasho.....

stephen jackson , spurs lowballed him after 03 finals with 9m/3yrs, so he bolted = stupidest management move.

spurs future?

this is the outlook after this season 53.8m payroll
duncan/bonner/mahinmi
parker/vaugn
ginoboli/bowen/udoka

c/pf splitter comes over next season,
sf sanikidze spurs are also high on him, who is probably coming over

spurs current problem is a suitable backup PG and a big or a bowen replacement, which can be find in FA or draft....spurs shouldve kept demaar johnson imo....if the cap is at 70m next season? spurs have around 10-16m to play around with...