NBA looking to change Draft Lottery; 76ers say no

[Chitownbulls]

So for all these years David Stern backed the NBA lottery system an said nothing was wrong with it but as soon as they GIVE the Cavs the #1 pick.....NOW THEY WANT TO CHANGE IT. They got LeBron back to Cleveland....thats what they wanted. If Cavs dont get the #1 pick...an get the 8th or 9th do we still think LeBron goes home? Wiggins is going to get him Love. But NOW ALL OF THE SUDDEN the lottery doesnt seem fair. BS this is a cover up.

[d0nk]

Right now, if you're one of the worst 3-4 teams, you know you're getting a pretty high pick no matter what. So tanking makes a lot of sense from a game theory standpoint. But if the lottery covers the first 6 spots and the odds are more evenly distributed, it becomes more of a crapshoot. Suddenly throwing away a season with a decent likelihood of ending up with say the #7 pick is not looking as good.

The worst team will still have the best odds, but incrementally rather than dramatically better.

A so-so team might also be more likely to try to incrementally improve year-over-year, knowing that they still have a decent shot in the lottery. There can be a light at the end of the tunnel that doesn't require you to blow everything up only midway through your rebuilding plan.

Actually, the proposed changes would lead to MORE teams tanking if all NBA teams were employing a game theory optimal approach. By flattening the odds across more teams, it increases the reward for teams to lose games at the end of the season to ensure they are in that top cluster of %s. Right now, its only optimal for a very small number of teams to pursue ping pong balls because if you aren't in the first couple spots, you wouldn't win a top pick often enough to offset any profits wasted pursuing a losing season.

[Chitownbulls]

I've been a 76er fan for 40+ years. The organization has a right to argue for a delay in the implementation of a new draft system. However, Philly will still have a chance at a high pick in 2015 and maybe 2016 too. The Harris/Hinkie/Brown strategy is going to be executed regardless of what fans in cities outside Philly think. Whatever rules the NBA rolls out, I feel like my organization is ready to compete. I remember the 83 championship. I want a freakin' dynasty this time and I'm willing to wait.

Agreed......you cant just change the lottery for next year. If its changing, it should start 2 years from now.

Its like drafting your fantasy team and having the commish change the scoring rules after the draft is done. Ohhh my bad, this isnt a PPR league anymore....your Welker pick now sucks.

[MalonesElbows]

Silver is just saving the 76ers from their own stupidity. The endless tank has been tried before and fails 9/10 times.

[madmaxmedia]

It's not entirely clear but there are reports that the lottery would cover the first 6 spots and the worst six teams would all have an equal chance at the top pick (and presumably picks 2-6) as well. That's a huge change.

Yes exactly. Right now, if you're one of the worst 3-4 teams, you know you're getting a pretty high pick no matter what. So tanking makes a lot of sense from a game theory standpoint. But if the lottery covers the first 6 spots and the odds are more evenly distributed, it becomes more of a crapshoot. Suddenly throwing away a season with a decent likelihood of ending up with say the #7 pick is not looking as good.

The worst team will still have the best odds, but incrementally rather than dramatically better.

A so-so team might also be more likely to try to incrementally improve year-over-year, knowing that they still have a decent shot in the lottery. There can be a light at the end of the tunnel that doesn't require you to blow everything up only midway through your rebuilding plan.

Incremental odds thing has already been done. That's why they have the more weighted system now. Orlando won the lottery in both 92 and 93 with an "incremental" odds system. Everybody was up in arms when they got Shaq and then another 1st overall pick in another strong draft, so they changed the system. It doesn't matter what the system. Somebody will be mad, as long as there is a lottery.

The past 3 systems have all been incremental, just a matter of deep a slope you want from top to bottom.

But you're right, no matter what happens at some point something 'bad' (meaning interpreted as bad) happens and there's a movement to change the draft rules. The perfect scenario for the NBA is to have a totally non-weighted lottery such that everyone sees no benefit of tanking on purpose, but then every year the lottery happens and the results end up distributed by record from worse to best so no one really complains.

[Mik317]

Silver is just saving the 76ers from their own stupidity. The endless tank has been tried before and fails 9/10 times.

something tells me your tune would be different if the Jazz had of won the lottery.

and again..I think most fans understand that there is a hug chance of this backfiring...however, IF it does work then we can have a pretty special team. I'll take that chance.

That's all fans of the Sixers are saying...we think we have a good chance to build a damn good team..LONGTERM. I also wish people would give actual counterpoints instead of these lame drive by posts of "THE SIXERS ARE DUMB FER TANKIN YO"..

Give us an idea of what would be better because so far all we got is 1. Throw Money at Bledsoe to look like we are trying. 2. Sign vets because reasons or 3. Keep Turner and Hawes because they are apparently good players when it benefits my argument. and honestly, I am okay with Hinkie's choice as all 3 could easily backfire as well.

You gotta take risks in life...Hinkie is taking the ultimate risks and I am excited to see how that ends up.

so please as long as the fanbase of the team in question is happy w/ it...get off our backs about it.

[d0nk]

Silver is just saving the 76ers from their own stupidity. The endless tank has been tried before and fails 9/10 times.

Name 9

[Q C]

stuff like this is how you know Phillys tankjob will fail.

also, you can't argue with fans that want to lose. When Noel and MCW come out looking mediocre this year they will tell you thats the plan blah blah. When it comes to the mind of tankers, everything is going to according to plan whether they win or lose, whether the players suck or blossom they can manipulate it to make themselves happy about it and argue their GM is some kind of genius. Happens EVERY TIME

[James40]

I'm surprised to see so many people agreeing with what the Sixers are doing and supporting them, I figured this thread would have most fans destroying the team, doesn't seem to be the case.

I think that I'd like the tank more if the Sixers didn't get Embiid. I'm not down on his potential, or his talent, but I think its going to be a miracle for Embiid and Noel to have 5 or 6 straight healthy productive years. Hopefully I'm wrong on that.

[Luigi]

Oh the team that wants to tank doesn't want the lottery system to change. What a surprise lol

I don't think it needs to change, but don't care if it does. I think they should simplify it - while giving teams better odds to win the lottery.

14 teams in lottery. Worst team gets 14 chances at 1st pick. First team to miss Playoffs gets 1 chance at getting first pick. Don't only draw for the first 3 picks or whatever, do it for the entire lottery.

These would be the odds for each of the 14 teams at their chance of landing the 1st pick
13.33%
12.38%
11.43%
10.48%
9.52%
8.57%
7.62%
6.67%
5.71%
4.76%
3.81%
2.86%
1.90%
0.95%

My numbers looked different. I know there are a few proposals being batted around.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-l ... is-coming/

"The league’s proposal gives at least the four worst teams the same chance at winning the no. 1 pick: approximately an identical 11 percent shot for each club. The odds decline slowly from there, with the team in the next spot holding a 10 percent chance. The lottery team with the best record will have a 2 percent chance of leaping to the no. 1 pick, up from the the minuscule 0.5 percent chance it has under the current system.

"The proposal also calls for the drawing of the first six picks via the Ping-Pong ball lottery, sources say. The current lottery system actually involves the drawing of only the top three selections. The rest of the lottery goes in order of record, from worst to best, after the top-three drawing is over."

"it’s important to note that the league has kicked around several different proposals with varying weights; the 11 percent figure for the first teams is not universal among those proposals, sources say."

So, the scale is different.
Current Scale - New Scale:
25.0 - 11.0
19.9 - 11.0
15.6 - 11.0
11.9 - 11.0
8.8 - 10.0
6.3 - ?
4.3 - ?
2.8 - ?
1.7 - ?
1.1 - ?
0.8 - ?
0.7 - ?
0.6 - ?
0.5 - 2.0

Those questions marks will all be higher than the existing scale: (0.5 - 8.8) v (2.0 - 10.0).

So, it hurts the bottom 4 teams (except the 4th, 5th, and 6th finisher get a shot at the draw). It helps the rest.

[zronv7]

They need to disregard the sixers and do it anyways, they should have no input for their blatant tanking.

[sixerswillrule]

So for all these years David Stern backed the NBA lottery system an said nothing was wrong with it but as soon as they GIVE the Cavs the #1 pick.....NOW THEY WANT TO CHANGE IT. They got LeBron back to Cleveland....thats what they wanted. If Cavs dont get the #1 pick...an get the 8th or 9th do we still think LeBron goes home? Wiggins is going to get him Love. But NOW ALL OF THE SUDDEN the lottery doesnt seem fair. BS this is a cover up.

It sounds like the proposed changes would IMPROVE the odds of what the Cavs just did (9th worst team getting the #1 pick). This has nothing to do with the Cavs.

[sixerswillrule]

Silver is just saving the 76ers from their own stupidity. The endless tank has been tried before and fails 9/10 times.

It's so annoying to hear things like "tanking isn't a sure thing." NO STRATEGY IS A SURE THING. 97% of teams don't win a championship every year. Failure is far, far more likely regardless of what path you choose to take.

[LloydFree]

Silver is just saving the 76ers from their own stupidity. The endless tank has been tried before and fails 9/10 times.

The Jazz are exhibit A. 3 top 5 picks (and 5 top 8 picks) from the last 5 drafts and still one of the worst 4 teams in the league.

[Baller2014]

Obviously the new system just shifts the incentive for when to tank (i.e. tank to be 6th instead of 7th, or tank to be 9th instead of 8th, though the latter is less likely), but it's a pretty reasonable proposal (unlike a lot of the crazy ones people throw around here) so it's likely to pass with the support of most of the teams.

[ComeAtMeBro]

And they absolutely should fight it.

It's a good system, and I'm sure the Sixers think it will help in the future as well. But they have every right to fight it if they implement it this season with no notice. You don't think the draft/FA would change for teams if they knew this system would be in place?

Any implemented league change needs proper notice and without notice, would screw the teams that just played by the rules that were presented to them.

This.

With this decisions of this magnitude, it's only fair to give the league at least a two-season notice.

[Luigi]

Obviously the new system just shifts the incentive for when to tank (i.e. tank to be 6th instead of 7th, or tank to be 9th instead of 8th, though the latter is less likely), but it's a pretty reasonable proposal (unlike a lot of the crazy ones people throw around here) so it's likely to pass with the support of most of the teams.

It shifts incentives, but the incentive is really a lot smaller.

Plus, it's not just at the endpoint (losing isn't always good). You have to hit it right. 13th seeds seem like the new sweet spot. Get into the top 6 for the draw.

[cb4_89]

This idea might go through as right now only small market teams and those that are supposed to be bottom 5 teams won't support it.

[Baller2014]

Let's remember though that the purpose behind the lotto is to favour the worst teams, so this is hurting that purpose somewhat too, in order to minimise some of the incentives.

[snoopdogg88]

this current mindset that "bad teams shouldn't be rewarded" going through NBA fans recently is bizarre to me


thats the whole damn purpose of the draft. to give bad teams a chance to get better.


trying to reinvent the wheel is a slippery slope IMO