Official West Conference Prediction Thread - updated 10/25/16

[SpreeS]

Gasol, Lee, Parker, Mills, 39 years Ginobili, Anderson are very far from good defenders.

GSW
LAC
SAN
UTA
POR
MEM
OKC
HOU

DAL
NOP
DEN
MIN
SAC
PHX
LAL

[ken6199]

Results updated up to 8/1/2016


Original document:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzaygCX5b1zHTEh2NGY2SWdJSlk/view?usp=sharing
It's a very quick and dirty analysis based on the data I have. All suggestions are welcome, especially on plotting!!

Results updated up to 9/4/2016


No ranking changes with the added vote. Only thing noticeable is the variance of T'wolves picked up by more than 0.5, because a few of the new votes had them on 3/4/10/12 seeds.

[Kentavicius]

GSW
LAC
SAS
UTA
DAL
MEM
OKC
POR

MIN
HOU
NOP
DEN
SAC
LAL
PHX

[xNewYorkMadex]

1. Golden State
2. Clippers
3. Spurs
4. Grizzlies
5. Jazz
6. Thunder
7. T'Wolves
8. Rockets
9. Blazers
10. Nuggets
11. Mavs
12. Pelicans
13. Kings
14. Lakers
15. Suns

[MotownMadness]

Golden State
San Antonio
LAC
OKC
Utah
Memphis
Houston
Portland

Dallas
Minnesota
Denver
Phoenix
Sacramento
Lakers
New Orleans

[Kurosawa0]

Just did the East, so I might as well do the West.

1. Golden State Warriors
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Houston Rockets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Utah Jazz
6. Portland Trailblazers
7. Oklahoma City Thunder
8. Dallas Mavericks

9. Memphis Grizzlies
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. Denver Nuggets
12. New Orleans Pelicans
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Phoenix Suns
15. Los Angeles Lakers

I'm picking Houston to rebound and to be an unstoppable offense. James Harden is going to be my pick for MVP. Their defense will kill them ultimately in the playoffs, but I think basically spreading the floor for Harden is going to be murder in the regular season. This is the first team since Phoenix that fits what Mike D'Antoni wants to do.

[ken6199]

^^^ I am a big fan of this guy above, and that 3/6 HOU-POR 1st round matchup would also be very entertaining.

However if none of this happens I will come at you because of your jinx.

[Kurosawa0]

^^^ I am a big fan of this guy above, and that 3/6 HOU-POR 1st round matchup would also be very entertaining.

However if none of this happens I will come at you because of your jinx.

I just think everyone is underrating the Rockets because of how disappointing they were last season. The idea of putting the ball into Harden's hands and spreading the floor with 3 above average shooters and having Capela or Nene as the roll man is pretty exciting. That's going to be really tough to stop.

And the reason I have Harden as the MVP is because if this Houston team surprises and wins 50-55 games he's going to be as likely a candidate as anyone. If you think Curry and Durant cancel each other out, OKC doesn't win enough games for Westbrook to win and LeBron's probably going to be on cruise control then who does that leave? Chris Paul maybe? I'm going with Harden.

[ken6199]

I just think everyone is underrating the Rockets because of how disappointing they were last season. The idea of putting the ball into Harden's hands and spreading the floor with 3 above average shooters and having Capela or Nene as the roll man is pretty exciting. That's going to be really tough to stop.

Two years ago when we lost to Lillard's 0.9sec shot, and replaced Asik/Lin/Parsons with Ariza, you would be a crazy man to call that a WCF team the following season. Had we known Dwight would be missing half a season and we had to rock a Dorsey/Black rotation, people would have put us in bottom 3. Team chemistry, with which everyone click and hit the rhythm together, is a scary thing. Vice versa, we added Lawson and healthy Dwight/Beverly/Dmo, we fell off the face of the earth and started the season with -20pt x 3 games. Hopefully we can repeat the good history this coming season, not the bad one. But for now people rate us from #3 to #12 all over the place, rightfully so.

And the reason I have Harden as the MVP is because if this Houston team surprises and wins 50-55 games he's going to be as likely a candidate as anyone. If you think Curry and Durant cancel each other out, OKC doesn't win enough games for Westbrook to win and LeBron's probably going to be on cruise control then who does that leave? Chris Paul maybe? I'm going with Harden.

Blake will have a bounce back year, and that cancels out CP3 as well. In some's eyes, 14-15 Harden would also make a fine MVP winner so if it comes down to him and someone else 2 horse race this year, especially Curry/KD/LeBron, voters fatigue might play a part to it. I do think OKC will win enough games though, Adams improves steadily every year, that team has defensive aces, offensive specialists, Donovan's 2nd year, I am not so sure they will *definitely* finish below Portland and Utah like most predicted here. Hence WB's MVP chance increases.

[Kurosawa0]

I just think everyone is underrating the Rockets because of how disappointing they were last season. The idea of putting the ball into Harden's hands and spreading the floor with 3 above average shooters and having Capela or Nene as the roll man is pretty exciting. That's going to be really tough to stop.

Two years ago when we lost to Lillard's 0.9sec shot, and replaced Asik/Lin/Parsons with Ariza, you would be a crazy man to call that a WCF team the following season. Had we known Dwight would be missing half a season and we had to rock a Dorsey/Black rotation, people would have put us in bottom 3. Team chemistry, with which everyone click and hit the rhythm together, is a scary thing. Vice versa, we added Lawson and healthy Dwight/Beverly/Dmo, we fell off the face of the earth and started the season with -20pt x 3 games. Hopefully we can repeat the good history this coming season, not the bad one. But for now people rate us from #3 to #12 all over the place, rightfully so.

And the reason I have Harden as the MVP is because if this Houston team surprises and wins 50-55 games he's going to be as likely a candidate as anyone. If you think Curry and Durant cancel each other out, OKC doesn't win enough games for Westbrook to win and LeBron's probably going to be on cruise control then who does that leave? Chris Paul maybe? I'm going with Harden.

Blake will have a bounce back year, and that cancels out CP3 as well. In some's eyes, 14-15 Harden would also make a fine MVP winner so if it comes down to him and someone else 2 horse race this year, especially Curry/KD/LeBron, voters fatigue might play a part to it. I do think OKC will win enough games though, Adams improves steadily every year, that team has defensive aces, offensive specialists, Donovan's 2nd year, I am not so sure they will *definitely* finish below Portland and Utah like most predicted here. Hence WB's MVP chance increases.

I just see this as almost a different team than the one that we've seen the last two seasons.

Yeah, I will say that if the Thunder do win 50+ it's going to be hard for Westbrook not to get it. The media will love the narrative of him getting it after Durant leaving way too much for anyone else to win.

[DusterBuster]

^^^ I am a big fan of this guy above, and that 3/6 HOU-POR 1st round matchup would also be very entertaining.

However if none of this happens I will come at you because of your jinx.

Houston at #3, I can't imagine why lol.

I don't get the optimism with Houston that some people have. D'Antoni has flamed out at every stop he's had since Phoenix with Nash. And it's not exactly like he's been coaching bottom-feeder teams without talented players of Harden's caliber.

I suspect they'll be a mid-40's team with a rough up and down start to the season, a solid hot-streak mid season and then a bit hit or miss to end the year.

[Catchall]

According to ESPN's first power rankings...

Warriors
Spurs
Clippers
Jazz
Memphis
Blazers
Thunder
Mavericks
Rockets
T'Wolves
Pelicans
Kings
Nuggets
Suns
Lakers

I feel like the Nuggets are better than that and the T'wolves are a bit high.

[xBlackMamba]

1.Warriors
2.Spurs
3.Clippers
4.Grizzlies
5.Jazz
6.Blazers
7.Thunder
8.T-Wolves

9.Mavericks
10.Pelicans
11. Kings
12. Rockets
13. Suns
14. Lakers
15. Nuggets

[OkcSinceSGA]

Spurs/Clippers will be super interesting. If the Clippers can avoid their mediocre starts they have every year before catching fire in the 2nd half of seasons... I think they will definitely win more than the Spurs this year finally. Spurs lost Duncan, Marjanovic, West and replaced them with declining Pau. Then you factor in another year of decline from Parker and Manu and this may finally be the year the Spurs have a big drop off.

I'm not counting them out, I'm merely saying this year isn't as certain for them. Clippers it always comes down to injuries. They can't seem to avoid injuries to Paul/Redick/Griffin for the life of them. The bench should be way better though this year, maybe the best top to bottom of CP3 era.

[ken6199]

Spurs/Clippers will be super interesting. If the Clippers can avoid their mediocre starts they have every year before catching fire in the 2nd half of seasons... I think they will definitely win more than the Spurs this year finally. Spurs lost Duncan, Marjanovic, West and replaced them with declining Pau. Then you factor in another year of decline from Parker and Manu and this may finally be the year the Spurs have a big drop off.

I'm not counting them out, I'm merely saying this year isn't as certain for them. Clippers it always comes down to injuries. They can't seem to avoid injuries to Paul/Redick/Griffin for the life of them. The bench should be way better though this year, maybe the best top to bottom of CP3 era.

Goes both ways though. How about LMA continued to develop chemistry with POP's system, as clearly seen from the 1st to 2nd half of 15-16 season? Kawhi lifted his 3pt% from 34% to 44% last year, who knows what kind of crazy weapon he has been working on this summer. Danny Green rediscovers his shooting tough? Duncan wasn't contributing anyway in his final year, Parker and Manu haven't been their key pieces for a while.

Bass is a great pickup but I wouldn't call LAC's bench this year the best of CP3 era. Your starting SF is still just a defensive specialist, backed up by Wesley and a 60 year old PP. You can never expect what you get out of Speights, and Jamal is still there 'leading' the 2nd unit, even one year older. No way that bench beats Bledseo+Chauncey+Barnes+Hill+Odom+Turiaf.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Spurs/Clippers will be super interesting. If the Clippers can avoid their mediocre starts they have every year before catching fire in the 2nd half of seasons... I think they will definitely win more than the Spurs this year finally. Spurs lost Duncan, Marjanovic, West and replaced them with declining Pau. Then you factor in another year of decline from Parker and Manu and this may finally be the year the Spurs have a big drop off.

I'm not counting them out, I'm merely saying this year isn't as certain for them. Clippers it always comes down to injuries. They can't seem to avoid injuries to Paul/Redick/Griffin for the life of them. The bench should be way better though this year, maybe the best top to bottom of CP3 era.

Goes both ways though. How about LMA continued to develop chemistry with POP's system, as clearly seen from the 1st to 2nd half of 15-16 season? Kawhi lifted his 3pt% from 34% to 44% last year, who knows what kind of crazy weapon he has been working on this summer. Danny Green rediscovers his shooting tough? Duncan wasn't contributing anyway in his final year, Parker and Manu haven't been their key pieces for a while.

Bass is a great pickup but I wouldn't call LAC's bench this year the best of CP3 era. Your starting SF is still just a defensive specialist, backed up by Wesley and a 60 year old PP. You can never expect what you get out of Speights, and Jamal is still there 'leading' the 2nd unit, even one year older. No way that bench beats Bledseo+Chauncey+Barnes+Hill+Odom+Turiaf.

Kawhi is Kawhi. He's an MVP candidate who's constantly adding to his game. LMA had a really good season as you said as expected in the Spurs season. But given his age and trajectory of his career as a whole LMA isn't going to be making any big leaps. He's already gotten to the efficiency level last year in the improved system to where I don't see where else he can go with it. As for the Clippers bench I don't think you're giving it proper due (most don't). Last year they were the 10th best bench in combined offensive/defensive efficiency. Then they basically lost Prignoni and Aldrich (huge loss, will be missed), but added Speights, Bass, Felton, Alan Anderson.

You are looking at a bench of Felton/Rivers/Crawford/Bass/Speights/Anderson. That's a legit 10-11 deep roster. I don't know if they can top our 2012/2013 bench, but it will definitely be the best since that one bare minimum in my opinion. Also you absolutely do know what to expect with Speights. Which is a big man who shoots nearly 40% from deep and averages 22/10/3 PER 36. He has issues being a black hole and inconsistent defense, but nobody is expecting him to start or play 30 mpg. The Clippers on paper are no doubt more stacked then the Spurs this year. It's just going to come down to actually putting it all together for once.

Raymond Felton was the Mavs best playoff performer at times last year. Alan Anderson is just an injury plagued year removed from being a really solid role player. Also something few know is Wes Johnson was actually having a really good year last year until his foot issues. Defensively he was excellent all year, it was the shot that fell off a cliff after his foot problems (both feet, planar fascitis) Bass is still one of the best stretch 4's in the game. I think you're in for a big surprise. I usually agree with you but I'm willing to bet against you here.

Paul Pierce isn't the backup 3. He's going to be playing 100% small ball PF according to Doc with low minutes most likely. It's Moute (a defensive specialist), Alan Anderson and Wes that will have to collectively man the 3 spot. When you consider how dominant the Clippers core 4 are, you don't need an excellent SF. 3 average SF's is fine with me IF they can hit the corner 3. Wes was hitting corner 3 at around 42% if I recall prior to his foot problems.

[suntzuballin]

I just want to predict 2 teams in the west that will give gsw a run for there money in reg/playoffs are spurs and mavs.

Sent from my SGH-I337M using RealGM mobile app

[NBA4u]

GSW
LAC
SAS
POR
HOU
MEM
OKC
UTA

HOU is the team I want to watch, offensively, they have dribble penetration, shooting, great spacing. Can get up and down with the best of them. Defensively, wanna love to see how their staff handles the roster.


I am prolly underrating the **** out of OKC, they should honestly be top 4 if things click

[Jon1798]

^^^ I am a big fan of this guy above, and that 3/6 HOU-POR 1st round matchup would also be very entertaining.

However if none of this happens I will come at you because of your jinx.

I just think everyone is underrating the Rockets because of how disappointing they were last season. The idea of putting the ball into Harden's hands and spreading the floor with 3 above average shooters and having Capela or Nene as the roll man is pretty exciting. That's going to be really tough to stop.

And the reason I have Harden as the MVP is because if this Houston team surprises and wins 50-55 games he's going to be as likely a candidate as anyone. If you think Curry and Durant cancel each other out, OKC doesn't win enough games for Westbrook to win and LeBron's probably going to be on cruise control then who does that leave? Chris Paul maybe? I'm going with Harden.

I just have a hard time seeing why Houston is better than prior Pelicans teams. Taking Anderson and Gordon to the side, is Harden, Capella, Ariza, Beverly so much better than Davis, Jrue, Asik, Tyreke, etc. Problem with NOP has been defense and injuries. And I expect Houston to see a lot of the similar results.

[bakesale]

^^^ I am a big fan of this guy above, and that 3/6 HOU-POR 1st round matchup would also be very entertaining.

However if none of this happens I will come at you because of your jinx.

I just think everyone is underrating the Rockets because of how disappointing they were last season. The idea of putting the ball into Harden's hands and spreading the floor with 3 above average shooters and having Capela or Nene as the roll man is pretty exciting. That's going to be really tough to stop.

And the reason I have Harden as the MVP is because if this Houston team surprises and wins 50-55 games he's going to be as likely a candidate as anyone. If you think Curry and Durant cancel each other out, OKC doesn't win enough games for Westbrook to win and LeBron's probably going to be on cruise control then who does that leave? Chris Paul maybe? I'm going with Harden.

I just have a hard time seeing why Houston is better than prior Pelicans teams. Taking Anderson and Gordon to the side, is Harden, Capella, Ariza, Beverly so much better than Davis, Jrue, Asik, Tyreke, etc. Problem with NOP has been defense and injuries. And I expect Houston to see a lot of the similar results.

I know it's only pre season but have you seen Houston play this year? Yes I know nobody is playing defence yet but Harden is playing like an MVP. Harden officially at pg is a brilliant idea and they look like they are going to be unstoppable.
Pelicans look mediocre by comparison. And they somehow always get injured anyway.