2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (III)

[jayu70]

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Trae Young's been balling lately.

That’s crazy

17 points with just under 7 minutes left in the 4th for the Win!
Impressive!!!

[Johnny Firpo]

I didn't say that, he is already a great offensive player. As you said it's a combination of things that make him special and the size is only one of them. All this discussion started by a poster saying at 6'8 he has a huge height advantage, like he is being guarded by PGs only. Another poster stated 6'8" is average for a SF, which is true. But as usual all this turned into "You don't believe Luka is great" debate.

In almost every game he’s guarded at least half the time by smaller players and there are switches, where he’s posting smaller players.
It’s really that hard to understand that 6’8 Pg will make some mismatches this or other way? And with all this pick&roll and switches, Luka can choose, who he will attack. Why Simmons is that effective without a shot? Take him away 5’ and he would be nobody.

The funny thing is that for you as usual switches work only in Luka's favor. For example you believe it's so easy to hide him on defense. Also the speed advantage of shorter PGs doesn't exist in this universe.

See, that's what I'm talking about. There is an implication here. You want there to be a problem, because it's just not possible that he is even an average defender. Well guess what, he is an average defender. He is not terrible, he is not bad, he is average. Uses his length well and does a respectable job against quicker, more athletic offensive players. I guess you can criticize average, but that's what he is right now, on defense, average, and no, quicker PGs cannot abuse him consistently because of a variety of reasons (smart positioning, length, and taking away angles, funneling these firebugs into his bigs).

[Johnny Firpo]

I'm just implying he doesn't have Wilt Chamberlain-like advantage some of Luka's fans are implying, but to each his own.

No one implies that, you are simply annoyed that he is this good, this early.

[Dirk]

Really bizarre game in Cleveland. 30 points without breaking a sweat and just toying with the opponent.

This symbolises the circus...

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[sunsbg]

I'm just implying he doesn't have Wilt Chamberlain-like advantage some of Luka's fans are implying, but to each his own.

No one implies that, you are simply annoyed that he is this good, this early.

I'm surprised, not annoyed. As are most of his fans, who have followed him for years, GMs, etc.

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a HUGE height advantage over a 6'2" PG, who is actually not defending him most of the time, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average on defense against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which are what actually gives him a HUGE advantage.

[Johnny Firpo]

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a huge height advantage over a 6'2" PG, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which is what actually gives him advantage.

It's a disadvantage for sure, no one denies this, but in my opinion it's still a better scenario than vice-versa. Taller, slower players usually defend that situation by giving space and offering the jumper to the smaller player, which is a good move especially when it's a mid range shot. You give space, and you close out at the last second. It's still a semi-open shot, but it's far from the almost automatic low-post 2 or foul that happens in scenarios when the offensive player has a huge size advantage and posts the smaller player up. In your other scenario, when he ends up defending a big, the era definitely helps him there, because he is usually only at a 10-20, or maximum 30 lbs. disadvantage. We don't really have bruisers in the league anymore, as you know. So yes, of course he is at a disadvantage in different scenarios, just like any perimeter player, but in our opinion the advantages on the other end of the floor far outweigh the disadvantages on defense.

[sunsbg]

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a huge height advantage over a 6'2" PG, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which is what actually gives him advantage.

It's a disadvantage for sure, no one denies this, but in my opinion it's still a better scenario than vice-versa. Taller, slower players usually defend that situation by giving space and offering the jumper to the smaller player, which is a good move especially when it's a mid range shot. You give space, and you close out at the last second. It's still a semi-open shot, but it's far from the almost automatic low-post 2 or foul that happens in scenarios when the offensive player has a huge size advantage and posts the smaller player up. In your other scenario, when he ends up defending a big, the era definitely helps him there, because he is usually only at a 10-20, or maximum 30 lbs. disadvantage. We don't really have bruisers in the league anymore, as you know. So yes, of course he is at a disadvantage in different scenarios, just like any perimeter player, but in our opinion the advantages on the other end of the floor far outweigh the disadvantages on defense.

It's still mostly skill, less height advantage. All you have stated may apply for Luka, but it definitely doesn't for a player like Dragan Bender, who can have all the height advantage and it still means nothing, despite being regarded as a decent to good defender by some Suns fans.

[Johnny Firpo]

It's still mostly skill, less height advantage. All you have stated may apply for Luka, but it definitely doesn't for a player like Dragan Bender, who can have all the height advantage and it still means nothing, despite being regarded as a decent to good defender by some Suns fans.

Don't even get me started on Dragan, I'm so disappointed in him. Expected so much more, but unfortunately as big as he is physically, he is equally small mentally.

[Bob8]

I'm just implying he doesn't have Wilt Chamberlain-like advantage some of Luka's fans are implying, but to each his own.

No one implies that, you are simply annoyed that he is this good, this early.

I'm surprised, not annoyed. As are most of his fans, who have followed him for years, GMs, etc.

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a HUGE height advantage over a 6'2" PG, who is actually not defending him most of the time, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which are what actually gives him a HUGE advantage.

You know well enough why I’m saying 6’8 vs. 6’2.

Lets say Luka and Trae will be similar skilled in few years time. They both aren’t great athletes and that probably won’t change. But for sure Luka will always be much bigger than Trae. That’s his advantage in offense and defense. If Trae wants to compensate that disadvantage he will need to become elite shooter, Curry like. Is that possible? Sure. Probable? No. Luka to become superstar will need to become near elite shooter. Around 40% for 3. Is that done deal? No. Has he good chances to become near elite shooter? Based on his first season, yes. And that’s it. Nobody knows what future brings, but odds are in favor of Luka at the moment. You just cannot discard his big body with his skill set. Not many big guys like him has his skills, motor and basketball IQ.

[sunsbg]

No one implies that, you are simply annoyed that he is this good, this early.

I'm surprised, not annoyed. As are most of his fans, who have followed him for years, GMs, etc.

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a HUGE height advantage over a 6'2" PG, who is actually not defending him most of the time, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which are what actually gives him a HUGE advantage.

You know well enough why I’m saying 6’8 vs. 6’2.

Lets say Luka and Trae will be similar skilled in few years time. They both aren’t great athletes and that probably won’t change. But for sure Luka will always be much bigger than Trae. That’s his advantage in offense and defense. If Trae wants to compensate that disadvantage he will need to become elite shooter, Curry like. Is that possible? Sure. Probable? No. Luka to become superstar will need to become near elite shooter. Around 40% for 3. Is that done deal? No. Has he good chances to become near elite shooter? Based on his first season, yes. And that’s it. Nobody knows what future brings, but odds are in favor of Luka at the moment. You just cannot discard his big body with his skill set. Not many big guys like him has his skills, motor and basketball IQ.

Yeah, I know. Half of your posts are dissing the rookies selected in front of Luka in the draft or traded for him. Your recent posts are more balanced though

I agree with you on this particular case. You can search for my posts on the Suns board pre-draft thread. I have used the same height argument(+skill of course) back then in the Luka-Trae debate. Just don't think it applies in general. Also agree Luka should become an elite shooter to fulfill the enormous expectations set by all his supporters. Early indications are good, but still need to point out his % has dropped since being used as a PG. Btw same thing happened with Booker on the Suns. Goes to show that many things depend on how a player is being used by the team.

[nolang1]

The funny thing is that for you as usual switches work only in Luka's favor. For example you believe it's so easy to hide him on defense. Also the speed advantage of shorter PGs doesn't exist in this universe.

Easy or not, it’s for sure easier to hide 6’8’’ bad defender than 6’2” bad defender.

See, I don't know if I agree with that either.

I'd say it just matters which players are around them, if the team is committed to defense, and if the coaches are able to scheme correctly.

We've seen a recent example of this with the Celtics and Isaiah Thomas (Not comparing Trae to IT though, because Trae should be a better defender in time).

It certainly is easier. If the other team has an offensively limited player who's 6'7-6'8, Luka can guard him just fine whereas that player would still have a major advantage posting up Young. That kind of thing limits how much other switching or double teaming a team has to do.

With that said I'll definitely agree that the Mavs are much better than the typical bottom-5 team in terms of not only talent and scheme (they were clearly tanking for most of last season and could have won 35-40 games if they really wanted) but in knowing how to put their rookie in a position to succeed early on. In Barnes and Matthews they had switchable wing defenders who could accommodate for Doncic, and with Jordan they realized a screener/lob threat would be a better combination with Luka than some post-up or pick-and-pop big.

[fuzzy1]

No one implies that, you are simply annoyed that he is this good, this early.

I'm surprised, not annoyed. As are most of his fans, who have followed him for years, GMs, etc.

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a HUGE height advantage over a 6'2" PG, who is actually not defending him most of the time, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which are what actually gives him a HUGE advantage.

You know well enough why I’m saying 6’8 vs. 6’2.

Lets say Luka and Trae will be similar skilled in few years time. They both aren’t great athletes and that probably won’t change. But for sure Luka will always be much bigger than Trae. That’s his advantage in offense and defense. If Trae wants to compensate that disadvantage he will need to become elite shooter, Curry like. Is that possible? Sure. Probable? No. Luka to become superstar will need to become near elite shooter. Around 40% for 3. Is that done deal? No. Has he good chances to become near elite shooter? Based on his first season, yes. And that’s it. Nobody knows what future brings, but odds are in favor of Luka at the moment. You just cannot discard his big body with his skill set. Not many big guys like him has his skills, motor and basketball IQ.

This is only true if they are literally the same players outside of height. They aren't. They have some similarities but I think they have different games. If two players have the exact same skillset, then sure, take the bigger one.

Long story short, the main advantage I think Trae will have over Luka going forward is pressuring the rim in the halfcourt. We'll see where we're at in a couple of years.

[The-Power]

Easy or not, it’s for sure easier to hide 6’8’’ bad defender than 6’2” bad defender.

See, I don't know if I agree with that either.

I'd say it just matters which players are around them, if the team is committed to defense, and if the coaches are able to scheme correctly.

We've seen a recent example of this with the Celtics and Isaiah Thomas (Not comparing Trae to IT though, because Trae should be a better defender in time).

First of all, just because both is possible doesn't mean that both are equally easy to achieve. It's completely unreasonable to deny the advantage of height.

Second, the Celtics were not able to hide IT defensively. That's why they were so much worse with him on the floor. 112 on-court DRTG (102 off) speaks volumes. By all accounts, IT was terrible defensively and it hurt the Celtics, and that clearly held him back in becoming a true star. If you're as bad as IT defensively, that's a huge deal and absolutely limits your ceiling. So I'm not sure that's the argument you really want to make.

[yannisk]

Was watching Doncic highlights from the last game, seems to me he has changed his stepback to be like Harden's. How can I say it politely, it looks like travel to me. Did not feel the same in his previous games

[Bob8]

I'm surprised, not annoyed. As are most of his fans, who have followed him for years, GMs, etc.

Back to the topic of the conversation. If someone is going to state he has a HUGE height advantage over a 6'2" PG, who is actually not defending him most of the time, than at least acknowledge he can't guard a 6'2" PG in Kyrie Irving for example. Average against some scrubs in RS is not a good example he will do well against top players in a playoff game. Also on switches he usually ends against a big, so basically no height advantage at all, which was the original point of the discussion, before some of you brought the weight, skills, which are what actually gives him a HUGE advantage.

You know well enough why I’m saying 6’8 vs. 6’2.

Lets say Luka and Trae will be similar skilled in few years time. They both aren’t great athletes and that probably won’t change. But for sure Luka will always be much bigger than Trae. That’s his advantage in offense and defense. If Trae wants to compensate that disadvantage he will need to become elite shooter, Curry like. Is that possible? Sure. Probable? No. Luka to become superstar will need to become near elite shooter. Around 40% for 3. Is that done deal? No. Has he good chances to become near elite shooter? Based on his first season, yes. And that’s it. Nobody knows what future brings, but odds are in favor of Luka at the moment. You just cannot discard his big body with his skill set. Not many big guys like him has his skills, motor and basketball IQ.

This is only true if they are literally the same players outside of height. They aren't. They have some similarities but I think they have different games. If two players have the exact same skillset, then sure, take the bigger one.

Long story short, the main advantage I think Trae will have over Luka going forward is pressuring the rim in the halfcourt. We'll see where we're at in a couple of years.

They for sure are not the same players. All advanced stats are saying that Luka is light years better. Luka BPM + 3.9, Trae -3.2. The same goes with RPM all any other advanced stats. Trae is at the moment bad and Luka very good. I just gave Trae benefit of doubt, that he will improve in everything in few years and catch Luka in almost everything. But It’s reasonable to believe Luka will always be much bigger.
Anything is possible of course, but is kinda unrealistic to see Trae have better odds to become better player. If I have to make a bet, I would bet that Luka will be better in almost everything, similar like today.

[Pachinko_]

Was watching Doncic highlights from the last game, seems to me he has changed his stepback to be like Harden's. How can I say it politely, it looks like travel to me. Did not feel the same in his previous games

the whole nba looks like travelling to me

[Johnny Firpo]

Was watching Doncic highlights from the last game, seems to me he has changed his stepback to be like Harden's. How can I say it politely, it looks like travel to me. Did not feel the same in his previous games

That one was a travel, but he didn't change it, he just took a small extra step there.

[Rockmaninoff]

Easy or not, it’s for sure easier to hide 6’8’’ bad defender than 6’2” bad defender.

See, I don't know if I agree with that either.

I'd say it just matters which players are around them, if the team is committed to defense, and if the coaches are able to scheme correctly.

We've seen a recent example of this with the Celtics and Isaiah Thomas (Not comparing Trae to IT though, because Trae should be a better defender in time).

First of all, just because both is possible doesn't mean that both are equally easy to achieve. It's completely unreasonable to deny the advantage of height.

Second, the Celtics were not able to hide IT defensively. That's why they were so much worse with him on the floor. 112 on-court DRTG (102 off) speaks volumes. By all accounts, IT was terrible defensively and it hurt the Celtics, and that clearly held him back in becoming a true star. If you're as bad as IT defensively, that's a huge deal and absolutely limits your ceiling. So I'm not sure that's the argument you really want to make.

I don't think it's unreasonable.

Number 1, can we take the height advantage up to a 7 footer and say it's easier to hide them because they're taller, or does it just apply to 6'8" 3s?

Number 2, the previous pages have posts about how switching is the thing in the NBA, so that applies to defense too, right? Like couldn't a height "advantage" be negated by forced switches?

And C, does athleticism matter, or is it easier to hide a taller player regardless?

Finally, the IT Celtics example was meant to show that a team can be great defensively in aggregate even with the smallest worst defender.

[Bob8]

See, I don't know if I agree with that either.

I'd say it just matters which players are around them, if the team is committed to defense, and if the coaches are able to scheme correctly.

We've seen a recent example of this with the Celtics and Isaiah Thomas (Not comparing Trae to IT though, because Trae should be a better defender in time).

First of all, just because both is possible doesn't mean that both are equally easy to achieve. It's completely unreasonable to deny the advantage of height.

Second, the Celtics were not able to hide IT defensively. That's why they were so much worse with him on the floor. 112 on-court DRTG (102 off) speaks volumes. By all accounts, IT was terrible defensively and it hurt the Celtics, and that clearly held him back in becoming a true star. If you're as bad as IT defensively, that's a huge deal and absolutely limits your ceiling. So I'm not sure that's the argument you really want to make.

I don't think it's unreasonable.

Number 1, can we take the height advantage up to a 7 footer and say it's easier to hide them because they're taller, or does it just apply to 6'8" 3s?

Number 2, the previous pages have posts about how switching is the thing in the NBA, so that applies to defense too, right? Like couldn't a height "advantage" be negated by forced switches?

And C, does athleticism matter, or is it easier to hide a taller player regardless?

Finally, the IT Celtics example was meant to show that a team can be great defensively in aggregate even with the smallest worst defender.

Normally you’re not hiding 7 footer, but you expect from him to be rim protector.

You can try to explain why Trae has that worse defensive stats than Luka? Do you think that their advanced stats is at least little correlated with their different bodies?

[Rockmaninoff]

First of all, just because both is possible doesn't mean that both are equally easy to achieve. It's completely unreasonable to deny the advantage of height.

Second, the Celtics were not able to hide IT defensively. That's why they were so much worse with him on the floor. 112 on-court DRTG (102 off) speaks volumes. By all accounts, IT was terrible defensively and it hurt the Celtics, and that clearly held him back in becoming a true star. If you're as bad as IT defensively, that's a huge deal and absolutely limits your ceiling. So I'm not sure that's the argument you really want to make.

I don't think it's unreasonable.

Number 1, can we take the height advantage up to a 7 footer and say it's easier to hide them because they're taller, or does it just apply to 6'8" 3s?

Number 2, the previous pages have posts about how switching is the thing in the NBA, so that applies to defense too, right? Like couldn't a height "advantage" be negated by forced switches?

And C, does athleticism matter, or is it easier to hide a taller player regardless?

Finally, the IT Celtics example was meant to show that a team can be great defensively in aggregate even with the smallest worst defender.

Normally you’re not hiding 7 footer, but you expect from him to be rim protector.

You can try to explain why Trae has that worse defensive stats than Luka? Do you think that their advanced stats is at least little correlated with their different bodies?

My understanding of advanced defensive stats that attempt to parse out individual defense from box score priors and +/- is:

a) they are not entirely reliable
b) especially in small samples
3) especially without priors

I do think Luka is currently a better defender though, due to his BBIQ and experience. Also the Mavs had a better defensive team up until the recent trade.