2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 3-0)

[Bob8]

Except that Luka has been horrible on defense and one or two plays don't make up for all the bad ones where he looks like he isn't even trying. Prime Harden esque.

Even on plays where his man easily beats him he tries to reach for a steal the same way Harden used to do lazily. Hey.. sometimes it'll work and net in a turnover but just overall pathetic level of effort.

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

There’s a whole compliation someone posted here of Luka getting blown by for a minute straight

You get points for blow by a player?

[Chanel Bomber]

My point isn't that Boston lost an outsize amount of points off wide-open 3s compared to Dallas, but that they shot poorly on the wide-open 3s that Dallas allowed them in game 2, and that therefore they could have hurt Dallas's defense much more than they actually did.

The gap in frequency on such a high-percentage shot is non-negligeable too, if you assume regression to the mean.

Two more comments:
- my focus was on game 2 specifically, not the first two games of the series.
- who took those shots is also important in this discussion. Some coaches decide funnel to the worst open shooters, for instance. Dallas's percentages as a team in the RS doesn't matter much if (theoretical example to illustrate my point on the players) Boston decides to primarily leave Derrick Jones wide-open, for instance.

I don't think the defense Dallas played in game 2 is sustainable by any stretch. They need to do a better job of containing the drive.

Let's focus on Game 2:

0/1 - PJ Washington: 33% in RS
0/3 - Derrick Jones Jr: 35%
0/2 - Maxi Kleber: 39%
0/3 - Josh Green: 42%
1/1 - Luka Doncic: 46%
1/1 - Dante Exum: 53%

That's 2/11 (18%) from a group whose weighted average based on the above shot distribution is 41% from wide open 3s.

That's clearly worse than 6 from 18 from a group who shoots 43% from wide open 3s:

1/6 - Derrick White: 42%
2/3 - Jrue Holiday: 42%
0/3 - Sam Hauser: 45%
1/2 - Al Horford: 46%
1/2 - Jayson Tatum: 44%
1/1 - Jaylen Brown: 33%
0/1 - Payton Pritchard: 41%

Now, if we ignore RS and instead look at the playoffs #s, that Mavs group shot even better, and exceptionally well from wide open 3s

Again, you're ignoring the point that I'm primarily focusing on Dallas's defense by pointing out that Boston didn't convert at an average clip on their wide-open 3s. I'm less interested in pointing out who between the two teams shot worse from wide-open 3s.

But if we entertain the comparison, the gap in volume is not insignificant if we assume regression to the mean (for argument's sake). 7 extra wide-open 3s for shooters of this caliber (all over 40% besides Brown) is a significant bump in scoring efficiency if both teams shot those shots at a more standard clip. But again, this isn't really what I'm most interested in.

Both teams got away with subpar shooting on wide-open 3s by the opposing team. I was interested in Dallas's defense so Boston's shooting was what I initially wanted to highlight.

[Triple M]

Why are we ignoring that the Celtics are dictating who they want to shoot and from where, because while PJ and DDJ are good corner shooters they arent comfortable above the break. The Celtics are going as far as leaving them uncontested above the break to shut down the lobs and corner 3. The Celtics are daring Luka to beat them 1 on 1 and because how hobbled Luka is, it has made him relatively easier to guard

[Bob8]

I hope that we all understand that narrative will be made based on who wins. If Celtics win, it will be about brilliance of Celtics team, disappointment of Kyrie and Luka's bad D. If Mavs win nobody will talk about bad D of Luka, he will be the chosen one and they will destroy Tatum.

[rapstarter]

Why are we ignoring that the Celtics are dictating who they want to shoot and from where, because while PJ and DDJ are good corner shooters they arent comfortable above the break. The Celtics are going as far as leaving them uncontested above the break to shut down the lobs and corner 3. The Celtics are daring Luka to beat them 1 on 1 and because how hobbled Luka is, it has made him relatively easier to guard

PJ and DJJ supposedly being good corner shooters is really based on two series against the Clippers and the Timberwolves. They both shot significantly better above the break than from the corner in the regular season and against OKC.

They are not bad shooters, but they are probably too streaky and too unreliable to plan specifically anyway.

[AussieCeltic]

I hope that we all understand that narrative will be made based on who wins. If Celtics win, it will be about brilliance of Celtics team, disappointment of Kyrie and Luka's bad D. If Mavs win nobody will talk about bad D of Luka, he will be the chosen one and they will destroy Tatum.

Yeh that’s usually how sports works.

[rapstarter]

My point isn't that Boston lost an outsize amount of points off wide-open 3s compared to Dallas, but that they shot poorly on the wide-open 3s that Dallas allowed them in game 2, and that therefore they could have hurt Dallas's defense much more than they actually did.

The gap in frequency on such a high-percentage shot is non-negligeable too, if you assume regression to the mean.

Two more comments:
- my focus was on game 2 specifically, not the first two games of the series.
- who took those shots is also important in this discussion. Some coaches decide funnel to the worst open shooters, for instance. Dallas's percentages as a team in the RS doesn't matter much if (theoretical example to illustrate my point on the players) Boston decides to primarily leave Derrick Jones wide-open, for instance.

I don't think the defense Dallas played in game 2 is sustainable by any stretch. They need to do a better job of containing the drive.

Let's focus on Game 2:

0/1 - PJ Washington: 33% in RS
0/3 - Derrick Jones Jr: 35%
0/2 - Maxi Kleber: 39%
0/3 - Josh Green: 42%
1/1 - Luka Doncic: 46%
1/1 - Dante Exum: 53%

That's 2/11 (18%) from a group whose weighted average based on the above shot distribution is 41% from wide open 3s.

That's clearly worse than 6 from 18 from a group who shoots 43% from wide open 3s:

1/6 - Derrick White: 42%
2/3 - Jrue Holiday: 42%
0/3 - Sam Hauser: 45%
1/2 - Al Horford: 46%
1/2 - Jayson Tatum: 44%
1/1 - Jaylen Brown: 33%
0/1 - Payton Pritchard: 41%

Now, if we ignore RS and instead look at the playoffs #s, that Mavs group shot even better, and exceptionally well from wide open 3s

Again, you're ignoring the point that I'm primarily focusing on Dallas's defense by pointing out that Boston didn't convert at an average clip on their wide-open 3s. I'm less interested in pointing out who between the two teams shot worse from wide-open 3s.

But if we entertain the comparison, the gap in volume is not insignificant if we assume regression to the mean (for argument's sake). 7 extra wide-open 3s for shooters of this caliber (all over 40% besides Brown) is a significant bump in scoring efficiency if both teams shot those shots at a more standard clip. But again, this isn't really what I'm most interested in.

Both teams got away with subpar shooting on wide-open 3s by the opposing team. I was interested in Dallas's defense so Boston's shooting was what I initially wanted to highlight.

Yup, and the bolded part is really what I meant to focus on, and I wanted to bring up the fact that Dallas has actually been quite comparable to Boston from wide open 3s prior to this series (in RS and playoffs). Also, not too convinced of regression to the mean necessarily happening within a game over a still very small 18-attempts sample (which involves maybe 1 or at most 2 more shots per player)

Anyway, generally agree with your assessment re Dallas's D.

[HotRocks34]

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

There’s a whole compliation someone posted here of Luka getting blown by for a minute straight

You get points for blow by a player?

I have a thread with 16 clips of Luka playing good defense in Games 1 and 2:

viewtopic.php?t=2385262#p113638696

We're past the silliness.

[The Corey's]

It's interesting how people can see the same thing and come out of it thinking Luka is playing good defense.

[durden_tyler]

shams works for the sportsbooks now. he tweeted to try and get people to rush to bet for the mavs. he's 100% compromised as a reporter at this stage in his career. seemingly everything with the nba media is tilted toward the gambling money it can generate for the league.

If so sure then just fade Shams all the time? So dumb, if you believe what you just said and you did not do anything about it. LOL


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[ITYSL]

In the 4th quarter this series:
Tatum: 8 pts, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover, 29% TS
Luka: 6 pts, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 turnovers, 26% TS

oof

[durden_tyler]

shams works for the sportsbooks now. he tweeted to try and get people to rush to bet for the mavs. he's 100% compromised as a reporter at this stage in his career. seemingly everything with the nba media is tilted toward the gambling money it can generate for the league.

The odds have barely moved on the Celtics winning it all

This is not true. The Celtics are now big 5:1 favorites as compared to being 2:1 favorites pre series.

The current series line is telling too; previously the Celtics were favored -1 to -1.5 (games, meaning series ends in Boston’s favor in six games) now it’s Celtics -2.5 to -3 meaning expectation is this ends in 5.

Heck a series bet is now priced at 7/2, and could be the best value.


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[zimpy27]

Luka's getting the job done and he's got to stay with it until some of his teammates join the party.

Read on Twitter

Except that Luka has been horrible on defense and one or two plays don't make up for all the bad ones where he looks like he isn't even trying. Prime Harden esque.

Even on plays where his man easily beats him he tries to reach for a steal the same way Harden used to do lazily. Hey.. sometimes it'll work and net in a turnover but just overall pathetic level of effort.

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

I high defensive rating means you're bad, the goal is to have a high offensive rating and low defensive rating.

[ITYSL]

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

Using your screenshot and your logic, what this graphic also shows is that Kyrie has been great on offense this series, because the team's offensive rating with him off the court is the lowest of anyone. Derp.

[ITYSL]

Celtics' net rating by playoff round:
vs. Heat team missing its star player: +17
vs. Cavs team missing its star player for much of the series: +8.5
vs. Pacers team missing its start player for some games: +6.3
vs. full Mavs squad from the almighty Western Conference: +12.8

[HotRocks34]

Except that Luka has been horrible on defense and one or two plays don't make up for all the bad ones where he looks like he isn't even trying. Prime Harden esque.

Even on plays where his man easily beats him he tries to reach for a steal the same way Harden used to do lazily. Hey.. sometimes it'll work and net in a turnover but just overall pathetic level of effort.

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

I high defensive rating means you're bad, the goal is to have a high offensive rating and low defensive rating.

Off Court here

[HotRocks34]

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

Using your screenshot and your logic, what this graphic also shows is that Kyrie has been great on offense this series, because the team's offensive rating with him off the court is the lowest of anyone. Derp.

[brackdan70]

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

There’s a whole compliation someone posted here of Luka getting blown by for a minute straight

You get points for blow by a player?

Not my thing but I won’t judge.

[Chanel Bomber]

Except that Luka has been horrible on defense and one or two plays don't make up for all the bad ones where he looks like he isn't even trying. Prime Harden esque.

Even on plays where his man easily beats him he tries to reach for a steal the same way Harden used to do lazily. Hey.. sometimes it'll work and net in a turnover but just overall pathetic level of effort.

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

I high defensive rating means you're bad, the goal is to have a high offensive rating and low defensive rating.

I think these are the ratings with the players off the court, not on.

In any case, just because the Mavs defense has been particularly awful in those 15 minutes without Luka doesn't necessarily mean that Luka's defense has been good. Seems like an infornal fallacy.

[HotRocks34]

16 clips of Luka playing good defense in G1 and G2 in the thread below:

viewtopic.php?t=2385262#p113638696

Got clips and multiple data points.

Done deal.

We'll see how Luka's defense holds up moving forward in the series.