2024-25 NBA DPOY and All-Defense discussion

[Castle Black]

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I agree that dominant shotblockers typically win DPOY and guys like Dort, Herb Jones etc will get snubbed every year because they don't put up big "stock" numbers.

Wait.... Weren't OKC fans touting SGA for big time stock numbers?

Stock numbers rarely get it done.

Correct. Wemby led the league in Stocks by a HUGE margin last year and still didn't win DPOY (though he was blatantly robbed imo simply because he was a Rookie stuck on a bad team).

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[Sactowndog]

My mistake. I guess I have to take your word, because I don't know where to find the statistic you're citing. I do, however, see Thompson at 32nd in blocks per game. He alters a lot of shots.

The bolded is an example of what I was talking about, as shown by my three counter examples. The great Chicago Bulls teams of the 90's also come to mind... Daniels in that NYK game was at least as effective as the best rim protection in the leage might have been. Probably moreso, as Brunson doesn't even need to get to the rim to drop 50 and torch an opponent with his passing to boot.

PS I agree that generally rim protection is critical and almost might be termed a defensive panacea. I just think some - you, apparently - go too far in assuming it is always superior to other forms of defense. Think of the Mavericks in last year's Finals. Boston wasn't bothered by their stout interior defense. I believe the counterexamples to this axiom are abundant, but because we know it to be usually true, we ignore the many times that it doesn't apply.

That's not my argument. I'm talking about building a sustainable defense over an entire season. This is the DPOY of the year thread, not defensive player of one IST game thread. Over the course of a year an elite defensive big is going to provide more value than an elite defensive wing. Both have value. DPOY only goes to one person. You can build a great defense around excellent wings but you're going to need a bunch of them (like the 90's Bulls). I fully understand you can build great defenses in many ways but the most impactful defense is always going to come from an elite defensive C. That is just the nature of someone being able to shut down an area (a Center) vs shutting down an individual (a wing).

NOTE: The following response is me thinking through this question out loud.

Ok, that wasn't your argument. And I don't dispute that bigs are overwhelmingly more valuable than non-bigs defensively - on average. I just think it is overstated, especially in regards to rim protection specifically. And I think elite perimeter defenders are underrated, especially when they are also useful near the rim. If we think in theoretical terms, the space around the rim is probably like 3% of the total space to be defended in the halfcourt. It is the most important space, but I think its importance is generally overstated. There are also sometimes questions of context to consider: the same player asked to play one scheme/assignment might have a completely different level of impact in another scheme - both bigs and wings.

If we look at this season's top twenty in defensive rating, here's the positional breakdown:

C - 8
PF - 2
SF - 3
SG - 4
PG - 3

Centers are the most prominent, and I would even say this list understates their importance, even if we include the PF's. But even if the league's most impactful defensive players are 75% bigs (not what one would gather from this list), there's still a lot of conceptual wiggle room there, especially if we were to separate the idea of rim protection from the "big" positions.

For my own curiosity, I'll go through the 30 teams now and see what position is played by the player with each team's best defensive rating. I'll only include the top seven in minutes played for each team.

C - 20
PF - 6
SF -
SG - 1
PG - 3

Two things to note: many of the PF's are players who primarily defend the perimeter (Tatum, George, Eason), and many of the centers here are players who are considered poor rim protectors (Towns, Vucevic, Jokic, Valanciunas, Nurkic, Sabonis).

Having looked through this, I am forced to come to the conclusion that you are correct: a great defensive big (an A) is likely more impactful than a great defensive wing (an A+). The same is probably true, perhaps even more true, about poor defenders.

This is relevant to the DPoY conversation.

That said, I still insist (unrelated to the question of DPoY) that the importance of perimeter defense is generally underrated by the NBA intelligentsia, many of whom simply brush it off as practically irrelevant compared to rim protection. We regularly see great defenses without rim protecting centers. Recently we've seen HOU, OKC, and BOS protect the entire court (rim included) even without a traditional rim-protecting big. But I will concede that these examples (and the 90's Bulls, et al.) were all collectives.

TL;DR I'm convinced of the general importance of centers to great defense (particularly, as relates to the DPoY conversation), but I'll continue to think through this issue in search of unconventional perspectives.

What did you use for your defensive rating. For the Kings no metric has Sabonis as the top defender I can find.

NBA Stats has Ellis then Murray in defensive rating. And then Murray in winshares. Possibly if a metric over rates rebounds it might show Sabonis.

[scrabbarista]

That's not my argument. I'm talking about building a sustainable defense over an entire season. This is the DPOY of the year thread, not defensive player of one IST game thread. Over the course of a year an elite defensive big is going to provide more value than an elite defensive wing. Both have value. DPOY only goes to one person. You can build a great defense around excellent wings but you're going to need a bunch of them (like the 90's Bulls). I fully understand you can build great defenses in many ways but the most impactful defense is always going to come from an elite defensive C. That is just the nature of someone being able to shut down an area (a Center) vs shutting down an individual (a wing).

NOTE: The following response is me thinking through this question out loud.

Ok, that wasn't your argument. And I don't dispute that bigs are overwhelmingly more valuable than non-bigs defensively - on average. I just think it is overstated, especially in regards to rim protection specifically. And I think elite perimeter defenders are underrated, especially when they are also useful near the rim. If we think in theoretical terms, the space around the rim is probably like 3% of the total space to be defended in the halfcourt. It is the most important space, but I think its importance is generally overstated. There are also sometimes questions of context to consider: the same player asked to play one scheme/assignment might have a completely different level of impact in another scheme - both bigs and wings.

If we look at this season's top twenty in defensive rating, here's the positional breakdown:

C - 8
PF - 2
SF - 3
SG - 4
PG - 3

Centers are the most prominent, and I would even say this list understates their importance, even if we include the PF's. But even if the league's most impactful defensive players are 75% bigs (not what one would gather from this list), there's still a lot of conceptual wiggle room there, especially if we were to separate the idea of rim protection from the "big" positions.

For my own curiosity, I'll go through the 30 teams now and see what position is played by the player with each team's best defensive rating. I'll only include the top seven in minutes played for each team.

C - 20
PF - 6
SF -
SG - 1
PG - 3

Two things to note: many of the PF's are players who primarily defend the perimeter (Tatum, George, Eason), and many of the centers here are players who are considered poor rim protectors (Towns, Vucevic, Jokic, Valanciunas, Nurkic, Sabonis).

Having looked through this, I am forced to come to the conclusion that you are correct: a great defensive big (an A) is likely more impactful than a great defensive wing (an A+). The same is probably true, perhaps even more true, about poor defenders.

This is relevant to the DPoY conversation.

That said, I still insist (unrelated to the question of DPoY) that the importance of perimeter defense is generally underrated by the NBA intelligentsia, many of whom simply brush it off as practically irrelevant compared to rim protection. We regularly see great defenses without rim protecting centers. Recently we've seen HOU, OKC, and BOS protect the entire court (rim included) even without a traditional rim-protecting big. But I will concede that these examples (and the 90's Bulls, et al.) were all collectives.

TL;DR I'm convinced of the general importance of centers to great defense (particularly, as relates to the DPoY conversation), but I'll continue to think through this issue in search of unconventional perspectives.

What did you use for your defensive rating. For the Kings no metric has Sabonis as the top defender I can find.

NBA Stats has Ellis then Murray in defensive rating. And then Murray in winshares. Possibly if a metric over rates rebounds it might show Sabonis.

I just used the standard Defensive Rating on bbref. I only included the top seven players in minutes on each team. I'm guessing Ellis was not in the top seven when I did this. In any case, bbreff has Ellis and Sabonis at 111 right now, which is the top among SAC's top seven in minutes. Third is Kevin Huerter at 113.

[Sactowndog]

NOTE: The following response is me thinking through this question out loud.

Ok, that wasn't your argument. And I don't dispute that bigs are overwhelmingly more valuable than non-bigs defensively - on average. I just think it is overstated, especially in regards to rim protection specifically. And I think elite perimeter defenders are underrated, especially when they are also useful near the rim. If we think in theoretical terms, the space around the rim is probably like 3% of the total space to be defended in the halfcourt. It is the most important space, but I think its importance is generally overstated. There are also sometimes questions of context to consider: the same player asked to play one scheme/assignment might have a completely different level of impact in another scheme - both bigs and wings.

If we look at this season's top twenty in defensive rating, here's the positional breakdown:

C - 8
PF - 2
SF - 3
SG - 4
PG - 3

Centers are the most prominent, and I would even say this list understates their importance, even if we include the PF's. But even if the league's most impactful defensive players are 75% bigs (not what one would gather from this list), there's still a lot of conceptual wiggle room there, especially if we were to separate the idea of rim protection from the "big" positions.

For my own curiosity, I'll go through the 30 teams now and see what position is played by the player with each team's best defensive rating. I'll only include the top seven in minutes played for each team.

C - 20
PF - 6
SF -
SG - 1
PG - 3

Two things to note: many of the PF's are players who primarily defend the perimeter (Tatum, George, Eason), and many of the centers here are players who are considered poor rim protectors (Towns, Vucevic, Jokic, Valanciunas, Nurkic, Sabonis).

Having looked through this, I am forced to come to the conclusion that you are correct: a great defensive big (an A) is likely more impactful than a great defensive wing (an A+). The same is probably true, perhaps even more true, about poor defenders.

This is relevant to the DPoY conversation.

That said, I still insist (unrelated to the question of DPoY) that the importance of perimeter defense is generally underrated by the NBA intelligentsia, many of whom simply brush it off as practically irrelevant compared to rim protection. We regularly see great defenses without rim protecting centers. Recently we've seen HOU, OKC, and BOS protect the entire court (rim included) even without a traditional rim-protecting big. But I will concede that these examples (and the 90's Bulls, et al.) were all collectives.

TL;DR I'm convinced of the general importance of centers to great defense (particularly, as relates to the DPoY conversation), but I'll continue to think through this issue in search of unconventional perspectives.

What did you use for your defensive rating. For the Kings no metric has Sabonis as the top defender I can find.

NBA Stats has Ellis then Murray in defensive rating. And then Murray in winshares. Possibly if a metric over rates rebounds it might show Sabonis.

I just used the standard Defensive Rating on bbref. I only included the top seven players in minutes on each team. I'm guessing Ellis was not in the top seven when I did this. In any case, bbreff has Ellis and Sabonis at 111 right now, which is the top among SAC's top seven in minutes. Third is Kevin Huerter at 113.

Boy I would question their methodology. The defensive rating on NBA.com/stats is very different.

I am thinking BBref overly weights counting stats and specifically rebounds. I would guess Luka who can’t guard a tree might be rated high also.

[scrabbarista]

What did you use for your defensive rating. For the Kings no metric has Sabonis as the top defender I can find.

NBA Stats has Ellis then Murray in defensive rating. And then Murray in winshares. Possibly if a metric over rates rebounds it might show Sabonis.

I just used the standard Defensive Rating on bbref. I only included the top seven players in minutes on each team. I'm guessing Ellis was not in the top seven when I did this. In any case, bbreff has Ellis and Sabonis at 111 right now, which is the top among SAC's top seven in minutes. Third is Kevin Huerter at 113.

Boy I would question their methodology. The defensive rating on NBA.com/stats is very different.

I am thinking BBref overly weights counting stats and specifically rebounds. I would guess Luka who can’t guard a tree might be rated high also.

As far as I know, it's just opponent points per100 while on the floor. There's nothing tricky about it. Rebounds don't factor directly. Only indirectly, in that every defensive rebound ends an opponent's chance to score on that possession.

It's just, "Do the opponents score while you're on the floor?" Centers dominate it.

[toooskies]

I just used the standard Defensive Rating on bbref. I only included the top seven players in minutes on each team. I'm guessing Ellis was not in the top seven when I did this. In any case, bbreff has Ellis and Sabonis at 111 right now, which is the top among SAC's top seven in minutes. Third is Kevin Huerter at 113.

Boy I would question their methodology. The defensive rating on NBA.com/stats is very different.

I am thinking BBref overly weights counting stats and specifically rebounds. I would guess Luka who can’t guard a tree might be rated high also.

As far as I know, it's just opponent points per100 while on the floor. There's nothing tricky about it. Rebounds don't factor directly. Only indirectly, in that every defensive rebound ends an opponent's chance to score on that possession.

It's just, "Do the opponents score while you're on the floor?" Centers dominate it.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

Short answer: complicated stat based on box score stats, but individual steals and DRBs are the primary adjustments made to the team's raw defensive rating.

[Sactowndog]

Boy I would question their methodology. The defensive rating on NBA.com/stats is very different.

I am thinking BBref overly weights counting stats and specifically rebounds. I would guess Luka who can’t guard a tree might be rated high also.

As far as I know, it's just opponent points per100 while on the floor. There's nothing tricky about it. Rebounds don't factor directly. Only indirectly, in that every defensive rebound ends an opponent's chance to score on that possession.

It's just, "Do the opponents score while you're on the floor?" Centers dominate it.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

Short answer: complicated stat based on box score stats, but individual steals and DRBs are the primary adjustments made to the team's raw defensive rating.

That explains a lot and indicates why the bias towards centers.

[HMFFL]

NBA DPOY ODDS:
Victor Wembanyama -550 to -700
Evan Mobley +1200 to +1500

Victor has things under control as the big favorite.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using RealGM mobile app

[scrabbarista]

As far as I know, it's just opponent points per100 while on the floor. There's nothing tricky about it. Rebounds don't factor directly. Only indirectly, in that every defensive rebound ends an opponent's chance to score on that possession.

It's just, "Do the opponents score while you're on the floor?" Centers dominate it.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

Short answer: complicated stat based on box score stats, but individual steals and DRBs are the primary adjustments made to the team's raw defensive rating.

That explains a lot and indicates why the bias towards centers.

Appreciate it, guys!

[KG Leonard]

I enjoy this thread a lot because of the discussion about all the quality defenders from smaller guards, two big wings and elite C/PF. My fav defender is always Kawhi/Pippen mold so I'm glad to see a young J Dub, being similar size becoming elite two way star wing of '"6.6" length.

Still i don't think we should limit Wemby instinctual elite defending and all around defending into a Gobert type. Sure he is 21 years old, making too young mistakes and the only player mentioned here playing with many weak defenders in a bad defensive team. Still he moves too well and reading the game defensively so well to simple be a Gobert rim protection only defender.

[Sane]

I enjoys this thread a lot because of the discussion about all the quality defenders from smaller guards, two big wings and elite C/PF. My fav defender is always Kawhi/Pippen mold so I'm glad to see a young J Dub, being similar size becoming elite two way star wing of '"6.6" length.

Still i don't think we should limit Wemby instinctual elite defending and all around defending into a Gobert type. Sure he is 21 years old, making too young mistakes and the only player mentioned here playing with many weak defenders in a bad defensive team. Still he moves too well and reading the game defensively so well to simple be a Gobert rim protection only defender.

Simply a Gobert with some ball handling skills but at his height/agility that's enough to develop him into an all time great. When Wemby gets strong enough to bang in the paint, he'll be too slow to guard the perimeter though so his defensive impact is going to be more Bill Russell than Hakeem imo.

[cupcakesnake]

I enjoys this thread a lot because of the discussion about all the quality defenders from smaller guards, two big wings and elite C/PF. My fav defender is always Kawhi/Pippen mold so I'm glad to see a young J Dub, being similar size becoming elite two way star wing of '"6.6" length.

Still i don't think we should limit Wemby instinctual elite defending and all around defending into a Gobert type. Sure he is 21 years old, making too young mistakes and the only player mentioned here playing with many weak defenders in a bad defensive team. Still he moves too well and reading the game defensively so well to simple be a Gobert rim protection only defender.

I mean, Gobert's perimeter defense and overall mobility has always been underrated because it looks awkward. Not only do the numbers agree here, but any deep dive into film of Gobert's perimeter possessions simply reveal stop after stop, strong contest after strong contest. If you can get him back peddling and then force him to change directions (north south), it's the one weakness in his movement pattern (think that Luka game winner over him in the playoffs), but overall we're talking about much more than just a rim protector when we're talking about Gobert. Common misconception because of his awkward movement style, and the internet's love to dunk on his rare missteps. Rudy has sneaky flexible hips, even if he looks like a baby giraffe while he's flipping them.

But then there's Wemby. Not only is he taller and longer than Gobert by a significant amount (3.5" taller and 3.5" longer), but he's way more fluid of a mover. None of Gobert's awkwardness. He's supremely light on his feet. All his movement is just so effortless. Rudy has to work his ass off to move his awkward giant body, but Victor is a natural. He's simply on another level.

I still think Gobert is a smarter defender for now, but virtue of having a decade more experience in the NBA. But Wemby is already better than him despite this. The physical advantages are too great, and Wemby gets more experienced every day. Gobert is old and fading. He's still an elite defender but it's starting to look creakier and creakier.

[KG Leonard]

I enjoys this thread a lot because of the discussion about all the quality defenders from smaller guards, two big wings and elite C/PF. My fav defender is always Kawhi/Pippen mold so I'm glad to see a young J Dub, being similar size becoming elite two way star wing of '"6.6" length.

Still i don't think we should limit Wemby instinctual elite defending and all around defending into a Gobert type. Sure he is 21 years old, making too young mistakes and the only player mentioned here playing with many weak defenders in a bad defensive team. Still he moves too well and reading the game defensively so well to simple be a Gobert rim protection only defender.

Simply a Gobert with some ball handling skills but at his height/agility that's enough to develop him into an all time great. When Wemby gets strong enough to bang in the paint, he'll be too slow to guard the perimeter though so his defensive impact is going to be more Bill Russell than Hakeem imo.

Yeah i can see him becoming slower if he gets stronger, bigger like you say but that's mostly hypothetical right now. Right now he is moving like a wing when he gets blown by on the perimeter, with Kawhi like chase by block. Bill Russell is like the GOAT defender in NBA history so if he becomes that and is superstar offensively that's...

[LarsV8]

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[Castle Black]

This is cool technology.

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[cupcakesnake]

Not quite all-defense level (especially not on a bad team) but I wanted to note that Scottie Barnes is looking pretty likely to deliver on the defensive potential he had coming into the league.

Scottie is a really useful source of mobile length. I really enjoy watching him on the backline or the weakside with those crazy long arms up in the air. He's constantly rotating and ready to disrupt plays. His stride length and vertical athleticism means he can rotate from anywhere to mess up a play. He's a very good defensive playmaker and gets a decent amount of steals, blocks, and deflections. More importantly though, he's really good at being in the way. I've seen a lot of possessions where he diverts plays or stops them from getting started because he's just in the way of where the ball handler or cutter wants to go, and his length is intimidating.

As a man defender, he's solid across 4 positions. Still a little shakey against elite first steps, but he's incredibly sound in the post and against ball handling wings. Those legs are so long and he has a crazy defensive stance. He doesn't get bullied by anyone.

[Castle Black]

Or maybe, just maybe… it’s because he deserves it?

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[Bornstellar]

AD should worry about his team not getting demolished in the playoffs again versus crying about regular season awards that haven't even been handed out yet.

Victor is the singularly most impactful defensive player in the league and maybe the league has ever seen. Better get used to it now instead of whining about how it isn't fair

[Castle Black]

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[cupcakesnake]

Or maybe, just maybe… it’s because he deserves it?

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If AD wants to win a regular season award like DPOY, he should try to play some regular season defense.

We all know what AD can do when he dials it up. When I tune into Lakers games, it always looks like 75% AD- still an excellent defensive player- but not a DPOY candidate when compared to the best of the best.

Amongst bigs, there's always a handful of guys who very clearly prop up top 10 defenses on their own, or get their team playing like a top 5 defense whenever they're on the floor. AD just isn't that, and you can see why when you watch him play. The stuff he does in the playoffs (provide insane scheme versatility with a combination of long rotations, switchiness, and rim protection) isn't featured night to night in the Lakers base defense. It's not reasonable to expect him to play that kind of defense and be the Lakers main pressure point on offense, but at the same time, you don't get awards for what you might do, you get them for what you are doing.